KAM/KOC possible extensions

[VikingLord]

I think part of it is that they weren't actually targeting Turner originally. Or at least not realistically. He was in the top 10 in most mock drafts. I think he was a guy they had graded very highly and when he fell to #17 they couldn't help themselves. They traded with Houston about a month before the draft to get back into the 1st round at the 23rd pick. I don't think that was with Turner in mind, they just wanted to move back into the 1st round. Maybe they liked to overall talent in the draft last year and just wanted to have a better position. Maybe they wanted to have extra ammo in case the QBs weren't falling like they hoped.

In other words, when he saw Turner available and within reach he threw his "system" out of the window and went for a player he thought would be a star.

Hopefully by the end of next season he'll look like a genius and the extra 3rd and 4th rounder he gave to get him will look like chump change.

I get where you're coming from, but then he must not have thought much of Kyle Hamilton as compared to what he thought of Dallas Turner as prospects. One he essentially traded away for peanuts, while the other he traded aggressively up to get. Which just makes me wonder what his system is where he discounts a really good, consensus top safety prospect, but potentially overestimates a really good, consensus top DE/OLB prospect.

I mean, why throw out the system for one player like that while not taking another who fell right into your lap?

I guess what it comes down to for me with GMs is do they know what they're doing? Do they have fundamental principles they can follow that guide their draft-day decision-making and player evaluations, or are they just taking wild swings or even making educated guesses? And if the latter, how much is a guy who makes educated guesses on draft day worth as a GM?

If you just guess, even if you are making educated guesses, the odds of drafting successfully and consistently over time are pretty low, even with higher picks. To be fair to KAM, I think the majority of GMs in the NFL probably do that, and I think the overall competitiveness of their teams over their tenures reflect that.

And also to be fair to the Vikings and their fans, I think there are GMs in the NFL that have guiding principals and an approach to player evaluation that allows them to vastly reduce the odds of mistakes on draft day, both in terms of players selected and trades made. It is not an exact science but some GMs are clearly better at it than others as the competitiveness of their teams over time indicates.

How much time should a GM get before it becomes obvious what kind of GM he is?

I just hope the Vikings are objective about this when it comes to KAM. I'd like to believe the delay in extending him has something to do with that and there is no desperation on their part to overpay for middling performance.

[psjordan]

ESPN article today ranking all the 2024 team drafts. I know all the caveats - "who wrote the article?", "you can't judge a class until 2-3 years down the road", etc.

But the Vikes draft was rated dead last in the league. Fair points were made (I felt) until they got to Reichard, calling him average. IMO he was superb until he tried to kick while hurt.

[psjordan]

I get where you're coming from, but then he must not have thought much of Kyle Hamilton as compared to what he thought of Dallas Turner as prospects.

Using Hamilton as an example, a few reasons I don't like to compare how our pick did vs a guy we passed on:
1) We don't know if BFlo told KAM that Hamilton does not fit our system, so take him off your list. His 40 time was not good for an NFL safety, we were not the only team to pass on him.
2) Hamilton in the BAL D scheme with the BAL D coaches would not be the same in the MIN D scheme with the MIN D coaches. A guy like Bo Nix would have been yet another Jets disaster QB pick had he gone there. It's just not fair to make that "transference argument", IMO.
3) In any given year, the coaching staff may be pounding fists on the table for quantity, or maybe quality. Very few successful GM's work in a "I'll do what I want to do" vacuum. Entirely possible KAM took TOO much input from others.

Having said all that, KAM does not get good or even mediocre grades from me on draft prowess to date. If that were the only barometer, I'd have already fired him.

[CharVike]

I'm very concerned he might have whiffed on DTurner. I watched him on most of his snaps (tube and in person), and boy he does not look strong enough, quick enough or big enough to overpower anybody on a regular basis. He was compared to Will Anderson pre-draft and he is nowhere NEAR that level. Not sure he ever will be, and that would be a huge miss for KAM.

I'm hoping that the main reason Turner spent time off the field was because the guys in front of him were just that much better than he was given he's a rookie. I do know that Turner was highly regarded coming out of college and I was genuinely surprised when he fell to where the Vikings could get him. I'm not sold he was worth what KAM gave up to get him, but time will tell if he is a bust or just needed some time to mature. I liked the pick at the time on a potential basis.

I also think any delay in negotiations is typically due to the sides not agreeing on value, which is not going to end up in KAM's favor. If the team values KAM substantially less than KAM feels he is worth, that may drag things out. But I have not heard of any teams lining up to "trade for" KAM, that's for sure.

Yeah, KAM's successes to this point have mostly come through his free agent acquisitions rather than his drafts. Heck, even Ivan Pace ended up as a rookie free agent signing rather than a draft pick. I guess every GM in the league missed on that one, but I thought someone would have taken Pace in the 2nd based on his college tape and would have been happy had KAM taken him that high.

Looks like the Vikings may get a mid-3rd compensatory pick in this upcoming draft. That would be a good place to look for some IOL talent.

Pace did have concerns with his size. Most reports felt he wasn't a good cover guy. All reports indicated he has very good blitz ability. The size seemed to be the biggest problem especially taking on blockers straight up. Ingram was about the biggest whiff ever. I can't think of an OL guy that ever played as bad as him.

[CharVike]

I get where you're coming from, but then he must not have thought much of Kyle Hamilton as compared to what he thought of Dallas Turner as prospects.

Using Hamilton as an example, a few reasons I don't like to compare how our pick did vs a guy we passed on:
1) We don't know if BFlo told KAM that Hamilton does not fit our system, so take him off your list. His 40 time was not good for an NFL safety, we were not the only team to pass on him.
2) Hamilton in the BAL D scheme with the BAL D coaches would not be the same in the MIN D scheme with the MIN D coaches. A guy like Bo Nix would have been yet another Jets disaster QB pick had he gone there. It's just not fair to make that "transference argument", IMO.
3) In any given year, the coaching staff may be pounding fists on the table for quantity, or maybe quality. Very few successful GM's work in a "I'll do what I want to do" vacuum. Entirely possible KAM took TOO much input from others.

Having said all that, KAM does not get good or even mediocre grades from me on draft prowess to date. If that were the only barometer, I'd have already fired him.

BFlo wasn't here yet. Hamilton's biggest knock was his 40 time speed. Even his height was a risk. I posted a highlight of him going across the field to pick a ball off which shows other skills besides track speed including game speed, recognition ect... I think Hamilton would have fit any scheme. He was an all pro 2nd year and that don't happen much. If KAM never picked Cine Hamilton wouldn't even be mentioned. I think Cine was the 3rd safety taken. There was a DT and C mentioned here during that draft also. I don't know how a GM can survive after the way he butchered that draft. If he missed on last years 1st rounders good luck seeing a SB in the next 5 years.

[psjordan]

BFlo wasn't here yet.

Good catch. Change to "the coaching staff at the time".

Hamilton's biggest knock was his 40 time speed. ... I think Hamilton would have fit any scheme.

That's the logic I don't subscribe to. Hamilton may have fit many schemes but not ours, who knows. With our penchant for benching rookies maybe he only gets 100 snaps with us first year. A LOT of variables.

I don't know how a GM can survive after the way he butchered that draft. If he missed on last years 1st rounders good luck seeing a SB in the next 5 years.

Agreed. Unfortunately.

[VikingLord]

I get where you're coming from, but then he must not have thought much of Kyle Hamilton as compared to what he thought of Dallas Turner as prospects.

Using Hamilton as an example, a few reasons I don't like to compare how our pick did vs a guy we passed on:
1) We don't know if BFlo told KAM that Hamilton does not fit our system, so take him off your list. His 40 time was not good for an NFL safety, we were not the only team to pass on him.
2) Hamilton in the BAL D scheme with the BAL D coaches would not be the same in the MIN D scheme with the MIN D coaches. A guy like Bo Nix would have been yet another Jets disaster QB pick had he gone there. It's just not fair to make that "transference argument", IMO.
3) In any given year, the coaching staff may be pounding fists on the table for quantity, or maybe quality. Very few successful GM's work in a "I'll do what I want to do" vacuum. Entirely possible KAM took TOO much input from others.

Having said all that, KAM does not get good or even mediocre grades from me on draft prowess to date. If that were the only barometer, I'd have already fired him.

My is more about consistency of approach from the perspective of an NFL GM.

If KAM evaluates NFL potential in the way you describe above, then he is doing the same thing the average GM probably does, and he'll get the same results.

Top talent is top talent. You either recognize it when it drops into your lap or you don't, and as both CharVike and you acknowledge, failing to recognize it should put you out of a job sooner rather than later.

[VikingLord]

Pace did have concerns with his size. Most reports felt he wasn't a good cover guy. All reports indicated he has very good blitz ability. The size seemed to be the biggest problem especially taking on blockers straight up. Ingram was about the biggest whiff ever. I can't think of an OL guy that ever played as bad as him.

But does an astute GM perform his own evaluation and reach his own conclusions or does he read the opinions of others and reach conclusions based on those? Heck, any of us on this board can go to Walterfootball and reach our own conclusions, but we don't get paid for them, nor do our conclusions end up affecting the future of the franchise.

Ivan Pace's film in college was very impressive. He wasn't a perfect prospect, but I again return to the monkey-see, monkey-do observation about the majority of NFL GMs. An astute GM makes his own evaluations and reaches his own conclusions. If he knows what he's doing, a guy like that can push his team over the top.

[CharVike]

Pace did have concerns with his size. Most reports felt he wasn't a good cover guy. All reports indicated he has very good blitz ability. The size seemed to be the biggest problem especially taking on blockers straight up. Ingram was about the biggest whiff ever. I can't think of an OL guy that ever played as bad as him.

But does an astute GM perform his own evaluation and reach his own conclusions or does he read the opinions of others and reach conclusions based on those? Heck, any of us on this board can go to Walterfootball and reach our own conclusions, but we don't get paid for them, nor do our conclusions end up affecting the future of the franchise.

Ivan Pace's film in college was very impressive. He wasn't a perfect prospect, but I again return to the monkey-see, monkey-do observation about the majority of NFL GMs. An astute GM makes his own evaluations and reaches his own conclusions. If he knows what he's doing, a guy like that can push his team over the top.

Pace was a great UDFA. But every year many UDFA are signed. We are all just fans and the draft is a big part of the entertainment package. The year I felt Mac Jones should have been the pick some posters pointed out that he had great skill position players and dominate offensive line. Basically an easier task. He was projected by some as top 5 and in the end the guy is no more than a career backup. Basically a 5th to 7th round prospect. IMO I would never extend KAM unless Turner and JJM are studs. How our team comes up with their board I have no idea. I'm sure it starts with street level/area scouts.

[StumpHunter]

I think we all assume there must be some method to the madness behind the moves a given GM makes. Something based in logic that correlates with some statistical profile or a deeper analysis of the equivalent of down-and-distance decisions in an actual game.

But is there such a thing, or at least one that is proven to produce better-than-average results? And if there is, does KAM know about it and use it?

What I find most disturbing about KAM's drafting to this point is his inconsistency. Assuming he does have some magic model he employs behind the scenes to make decisions on draft day, how to reconcile that overriding philosophy with the moves he's actually made? How to reconcile his first draft, where he traded out of the 12th pick and way down into the bottom of the 1st, ignoring legit prospects like Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Davis, to take less-heralded prospects like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth, with his action in last year's draft where he traded significant draft capital to move up to take a more heralded prospect in Turner?

I just don't get the logic there. Kyle Hamilton was a legit top safety prospect coming out, and a lot of people, myself included, were surprised he made it to the Vikings original pick in the first round. Didn't even have to trade up to get him. KAM traded out of that pick. And then a year later KAM sends a LOT of future draft capital to chase after another legit top DE/OLB pick in Turner.

Doesn't strike me that KAM really has much of a system in place at all, or if he does it isn't one that produces consistent decisions, at least in the 1st round.

I think part of it is that they weren't actually targeting Turner originally. Or at least not realistically. He was in the top 10 in most mock drafts. I think he was a guy they had graded very highly and when he fell to #17 they couldn't help themselves. They traded with Houston about a month before the draft to get back into the 1st round at the 23rd pick. I don't think that was with Turner in mind, they just wanted to move back into the 1st round. Maybe they liked to overall talent in the draft last year and just wanted to have a better position. Maybe they wanted to have extra ammo in case the QBs weren't falling like they hoped.

In other words, when he saw Turner available and within reach he threw his "system" out of the window and went for a player he thought would be a star.

Hopefully by the end of next season he'll look like a genius and the extra 3rd and 4th rounder he gave to get him will look like chump change.

I think you make a great point about how they weren't targeting him, and maybe hadn't done enough work to really know if he was worth drafting that high because of it. BFlo was probably consulted on him a little for instance, but was he one of the guys BFlo really wanted with that 23rd pick if the Vikings weren't able to trade up with it?

Other GMs clearly felt he wasn't worth that 9th overall pick the so called "experts" felt he was. Why did ours miss all the warning signs they obviously saw?

[Cliff]

I think part of it is that they weren't actually targeting Turner originally. Or at least not realistically. He was in the top 10 in most mock drafts. I think he was a guy they had graded very highly and when he fell to #17 they couldn't help themselves. They traded with Houston about a month before the draft to get back into the 1st round at the 23rd pick. I don't think that was with Turner in mind, they just wanted to move back into the 1st round. Maybe they liked to overall talent in the draft last year and just wanted to have a better position. Maybe they wanted to have extra ammo in case the QBs weren't falling like they hoped.

In other words, when he saw Turner available and within reach he threw his "system" out of the window and went for a player he thought would be a star.

Hopefully by the end of next season he'll look like a genius and the extra 3rd and 4th rounder he gave to get him will look like chump change.

I get where you're coming from, but then he must not have thought much of Kyle Hamilton as compared to what he thought of Dallas Turner as prospects. One he essentially traded away for peanuts, while the other he traded aggressively up to get. Which just makes me wonder what his system is where he discounts a really good, consensus top safety prospect, but potentially overestimates a really good, consensus top DE/OLB prospect.

I mean, why throw out the system for one player like that while not taking another who fell right into your lap?

I guess what it comes down to for me with GMs is do they know what they're doing? Do they have fundamental principles they can follow that guide their draft-day decision-making and player evaluations, or are they just taking wild swings or even making educated guesses? And if the latter, how much is a guy who makes educated guesses on draft day worth as a GM?

If you just guess, even if you are making educated guesses, the odds of drafting successfully and consistently over time are pretty low, even with higher picks. To be fair to KAM, I think the majority of GMs in the NFL probably do that, and I think the overall competitiveness of their teams over their tenures reflect that.

And also to be fair to the Vikings and their fans, I think there are GMs in the NFL that have guiding principals and an approach to player evaluation that allows them to vastly reduce the odds of mistakes on draft day, both in terms of players selected and trades made. It is not an exact science but some GMs are clearly better at it than others as the competitiveness of their teams over time indicates.

How much time should a GM get before it becomes obvious what kind of GM he is?

I just hope the Vikings are objective about this when it comes to KAM. I'd like to believe the delay in extending him has something to do with that and there is no desperation on their part to overpay for middling performance.

My is guess is they liked Hamilton just fine but felt (feel?) Turner is a game-changer. My avatar is literally the face KOC made when he was told they were getting Dallas Turner:


So when I wrote about them "throwing out the process" for him, that's what I mean. I think he was a guy they really, really wanted and couldn't believe he dropped that far. Apparently they didn't think Hamilton would be a very big difference than who they could get lower and were wrong about that.

The draft has always been something of a crap shoot, but there are definitely some gamblers better than others and so far KAM hasn't been very good.

[allday1991]

BFlo wasn't here yet.

Good catch. Change to "the coaching staff at the time".

Hamilton's biggest knock was his 40 time speed. ... I think Hamilton would have fit any scheme.

That's the logic I don't subscribe to. Hamilton may have fit many schemes but not ours, who knows. With our penchant for benching rookies maybe he only gets 100 snaps with us first year. A LOT of variables.

Yes the 4.59 Kyle Hamilton was to slow for our scheme but Cam Bynum at 4.58, just right.

[CharVike]

Not sure if this was posted about KOC contract
Kevin O'Connell's contract extension with the Minnesota Vikings is for at least five years, notes a Yahoo Sports article. The deal is worth approximately $65 million, which averages out to just under $15 million per year.
Explanation
The Vikings announced the contract extension in January 2025, after O'Connell's successful 2024 season. The extension keeps O'Connell with the Vikings for the foreseeable future.
Details on O'Connell's contract:
The extension is for at least five years
The deal is worth approximately $65 million
The average annual salary is just under $15 million
O'Connell is among the top six paid coaches in the NFL
O'Connell's performance
O'Connell is the first Vikings coach to have multiple 13-win seasons in his first three years. He's also an innovative play caller, an excellent communicator, and a strong leader.