Offseason Thread

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StumpHunter
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by StumpHunter »

Cliff wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:02 pm
StumpHunter wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 5:57 pm
Of those 107 starts, the vast majority are from terrible players like Evans, Ingram, Hall, and Chandler. Only 29 starts from a quality starter in Addison, and with a few backups getting starts because of injury to fill out the rest.

He really has had the worst drafts of the past 3 seasons, and I think that more than anything will force his hand into doing whatever it takes to get JJ McCarthy starting this coming season. He needs JJ to make his drafts not look bad, because 2025 and his 1 pick in the first 3 rounds isn't going to cut it.
To be fair when considering those stats they drafted JJ who they never intened to start, Turner who was behind Van Ginkel, and Cine who was immediately injured. We'll never know if he was destine to be terrible or if he never fully recovered.
Every team has things happen to their draft picks that make their draft classes not as good as they could be, but Cine was never going to start as a rookie and was firmly buried behind Bynum, Metellus and Smith on the depth chart before the injury, and after was just as bad. Turner was not only behind Van Ginkel, but career backup Pat Jones and was not very good even when he played. JJ McCarthy is the one pick you mention that might still save Kwesi's draft picks from the past 3 drafts, and if he truly was the only QB of the 6 drafted in the 1st round that wasn't ready to start in his first year, we are in trouble.

I don't think that was the case though, and KOC's bluster about not starting him until he was ready meant the same as Mayo's talk about not starting Maye until he was ready and just meant not starting him until it became clear the vet starter ahead of them no longer gave them a good shot at winning football games.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Alaskan »

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26 ... %20useless.


Here is one example: an older article, but recent enough for it to still be used for reference in the NFL today.

The draft is just a tool. The analytics sure don't seem to support the draft as the end all be all of Excellence in roster building. I Personally think there is far too much emphasis put on drafting extremely well......and how much it actually has to do with building a championship caliber roster. There are way too many variables with the draft and profiling players that will fit a given system. Even the best talent evaluating system cannot consistently "beat the average bust rate".

KAM is 34-17 over 3 years after getting handed a roster that was "All In" at the end of the Speilman/Zimmer years, roster holes everywhere and Cap hell was what he had to deal with. Look at them now. Winning without drafting well........Weird! And a war chest to spend in FA and a promising young QB on a rookie deal. This almost sounds like the very definition of a competitive rebuild to me. Would it have been easier if they would have hit on a few more draft picks? No question, but its not the end of the world that they didn't. KAM is IVY League Educated in Economics (Stanford & Princeton), he's a data guy. Analytics is his thing. He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by CharVike »

Alaskan wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:40 pm https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26 ... %20useless.


Here is one example: an older article, but recent enough for it to still be used for reference in the NFL today.

The draft is just a tool. The analytics sure don't seem to support the draft as the end all be all of Excellence in roster building. I Personally think there is far too much emphasis put on drafting extremely well......and how much it actually has to do with building a championship caliber roster. There are way too many variables with the draft and profiling players that will fit a given system. Even the best talent evaluating system cannot consistently "beat the average bust rate".

KAM is 34-17 over 3 years after getting handed a roster that was "All In" at the end of the Speilman/Zimmer years, roster holes everywhere and Cap hell was what he had to deal with. Look at them now. Winning without drafting well........Weird! And a war chest to spend in FA and a promising young QB on a rookie deal. This almost sounds like the very definition of a competitive rebuild to me. Would it have been easier if they would have hit on a few more draft picks? No question, but its not the end of the world that they didn't. KAM is IVY League Educated in Economics (Stanford & Princeton), he's a data guy. Analytics is his thing. He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
KAM is very smart and a data guy as you pointed out. We need a guy that can at least hit at an average rate in the draft. That's not him. Look at the Rams roster compared to ours. They have a young team. Rookie center and also 2 rookie guards that have both played this year filling in for the injured. They had those 2 rookie Gs playing against us game 1 and they beat us. That's a true competitive rebuild. Young and getting better. Plus 2 rookie DL players who played well. KAM filled holes through FA which is great but there is only so much cap. Getting cheap rookies who can contribute is a must do. We have cap this year but that 60 mill will be gone very quickly. If we sign our own like Murph and Bynum that will be a big hit against that. Zim and Speilman also had a great winning percentage but the playoffs were another story. The only time we had success it took a miracle for us to move forward and then get embarrassed. If JJM gets in there and is better than Sammy by all means extend KAM. But I would wait until year 4 is up before extending him. That thump down we took from the Rams was bad. They physically beat us bad. Sammy gets the blame but it went way beyond 1 player. The bigger problem is much larger. Teams are pressing against us and that won't stop.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by VikingLord »

Alaskan wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:40 pm He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
You don't think it is fair to judge him relative to his peers on his job performance, of which successful drafting is a very significant part?

In KAM's case the team's W-L record doesn't equate with his performance. In my view the Vikings have succeeded in spite of him rather than because of him, and I think the *multiple* comparative articles posted in this thread underscore that point. Going further, there is likely a good reason KOC has been extended while KAM has not.

Put another way - let's say KAM was released by the Vikings this offseason. What teams line up to sign him in your view? Who is going to pay a premium for his demonstrated performance as a GM to this point?
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Alaskan »

VikingLord wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 10:12 pm
Alaskan wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:40 pm He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
You don't think it is fair to judge him relative to his peers on his job performance, of which successful drafting is a very significant part?
I do think it's fair to compare his performance to his peers who inherited a similar situation 3 years ago. His sample size thus far is 3 year's........and the W-L record is the sum of all of his responsibilities as GM, one of which is the draft. If your read the Norseman article, it pretty clearly explains the bust rate on draft picks League wide with some reasonable metrics associated to what success in the draft looks like.
In KAM's case the team's W-L record doesn't equate with his performance. In my view the Vikings have succeeded in spite of him rather than because of him, and I think the *multiple* comparative articles posted in this thread underscore that point. Going further, there is likely a good reason KOC has been extended while KAM has not.
Not sure I agree with any of this paragraph. He shares in the credit and the blame alike. You act like they haven't overachieved from most every fan's perspective for the past 3 years under his leadership. He hired KOC. Does he even get credit for that in your view?

Put another way - let's say KAM was released by the Vikings this offseason. What teams line up to sign him in your view? Who is going to pay a premium for his demonstrated performance as a GM to this point?
,
Good question. I really have no idea. I personally think he has done an outstanding Job. If I was an owner looking for a GM I would have him on my short list. The Vikings have been a winner under his leadership when nobody expected it, that has to count for something to someone with an eye for football. Excellence is a culture. Cultures are built, it doesn't happen overnight and its not always perfect. He has this Team headed in the right direction. I am sure there is an owner or two who have noticed what he has done in MN since taking over; good, bad or indifferent.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Alaskan »

CharVike wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 10:02 pm
Alaskan wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:40 pm https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26 ... %20useless.


Here is one example: an older article, but recent enough for it to still be used for reference in the NFL today.

The draft is just a tool. The analytics sure don't seem to support the draft as the end all be all of Excellence in roster building. I Personally think there is far too much emphasis put on drafting extremely well......and how much it actually has to do with building a championship caliber roster. There are way too many variables with the draft and profiling players that will fit a given system. Even the best talent evaluating system cannot consistently "beat the average bust rate".

KAM is 34-17 over 3 years after getting handed a roster that was "All In" at the end of the Speilman/Zimmer years, roster holes everywhere and Cap hell was what he had to deal with. Look at them now. Winning without drafting well........Weird! And a war chest to spend in FA and a promising young QB on a rookie deal. This almost sounds like the very definition of a competitive rebuild to me. Would it have been easier if they would have hit on a few more draft picks? No question, but its not the end of the world that they didn't. KAM is IVY League Educated in Economics (Stanford & Princeton), he's a data guy. Analytics is his thing. He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
KAM is very smart and a data guy as you pointed out. We need a guy that can at least hit at an average rate in the draft. That's not him. Look at the Rams roster compared to ours. They have a young team. Rookie center and also 2 rookie guards that have both played this year filling in for the injured. They had those 2 rookie Gs playing against us game 1 and they beat us. That's a true competitive rebuild. Young and getting better. Plus 2 rookie DL players who played well. KAM filled holes through FA which is great but there is only so much cap. Getting cheap rookies who can contribute is a must do. We have cap this year but that 60 mill will be gone very quickly. If we sign our own like Murph and Bynum that will be a big hit against that. Zim and Speilman also had a great winning percentage but the playoffs were another story. The only time we had success it took a miracle for us to move forward and then get embarrassed. If JJM gets in there and is better than Sammy by all means extend KAM. But I would wait until year 4 is up before extending him. That thump down we took from the Rams was bad. They physically beat us bad. Sammy gets the blame but it went way beyond 1 player. The bigger problem is much larger. Teams are pressing against us and that won't stop.
I think getting cheap TALENT is more accurate than cheap rookies. Value is the name of the game. It doesn’t really matter where the value is found.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by StumpHunter »

Alaskan wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:40 pm https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26 ... %20useless.


Here is one example: an older article, but recent enough for it to still be used for reference in the NFL today.

The draft is just a tool. The analytics sure don't seem to support the draft as the end all be all of Excellence in roster building. I Personally think there is far too much emphasis put on drafting extremely well......and how much it actually has to do with building a championship caliber roster. There are way too many variables with the draft and profiling players that will fit a given system. Even the best talent evaluating system cannot consistently "beat the average bust rate".

KAM is 34-17 over 3 years after getting handed a roster that was "All In" at the end of the Speilman/Zimmer years, roster holes everywhere and Cap hell was what he had to deal with. Look at them now. Winning without drafting well........Weird! And a war chest to spend in FA and a promising young QB on a rookie deal. This almost sounds like the very definition of a competitive rebuild to me. Would it have been easier if they would have hit on a few more draft picks? No question, but its not the end of the world that they didn't. KAM is IVY League Educated in Economics (Stanford & Princeton), he's a data guy. Analytics is his thing. He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
He is also 0-2 in the playoffs against two teams that weren't very good playoff teams when the talent on those teams got exposed. He hired a great head coach who has managed to hide the deficiencies on each team has been given, or 2024 would have been his last season ever as a GM.

Regular season success is fine, but you have to ask yourself if this team going into 2025 is in a better spot than it was when KAM took over from a talent standpoint and if it is better, are we anywhere close to competing for a Super Bowl after 3 off seasons to rebuild this roster? Or are we constantly in a rebuild each season as he continues to sign guys to short term deals and is unable to replace them via the draft?

How good is Philly if they didn't draft Jurgens, Carter, Mitchell, Dejean or Nolan Smith? How good is KC if they didn't have Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Watson, Cook, Conner, Caliendo or Worthy? Those are the guys contributing on SB teams who were drafted since Kwesi took over, and in comparison you have Addison and a kicker who ended the season poorly for Kwesi. Is it any wonder we got smoked in the first round not by the eventual SB winner, but by a team that didn't make it out of the divisional round?

The draft 100% matters and arguing otherwise is just an effort to excuse our GM being bad at half his job.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by VikingLord »

Alaskan wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:19 am I am sure there is an owner or two who have noticed what he has done in MN since taking over; good, bad or indifferent.
Well, here is the sunrise... KAM remains unextended. For such an obvious high performer, that is a curious fact indeed.

Apparently I had you on my ignore list, but somehow saw your posts in this thread. It takes quite a bit of effort to get on my ignore list. In fact, you are the sole person on that list, so if I don't respond to you, you probably should take it personally.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Alaskan »

VikingLord wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:17 am
Alaskan wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:19 am I am sure there is an owner or two who have noticed what he has done in MN since taking over; good, bad or indifferent.
Well, here is the sunrise... KAM remains unextended. For such an obvious high performer, that is a curious fact indeed.

Apparently I had you on my ignore list, but somehow saw your posts in this thread. It takes quite a bit of effort to get on my ignore list. In fact, you are the sole person on that list, so if I don't respond to you, you probably should take it personally.
Few things would make me happier than to never have dialog with you again. Please, don't take that personally.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Alaskan »

StumpHunter wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 9:08 am
Alaskan wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:40 pm https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26 ... %20useless.


Here is one example: an older article, but recent enough for it to still be used for reference in the NFL today.

The draft is just a tool. The analytics sure don't seem to support the draft as the end all be all of Excellence in roster building. I Personally think there is far too much emphasis put on drafting extremely well......and how much it actually has to do with building a championship caliber roster. There are way too many variables with the draft and profiling players that will fit a given system. Even the best talent evaluating system cannot consistently "beat the average bust rate".

KAM is 34-17 over 3 years after getting handed a roster that was "All In" at the end of the Speilman/Zimmer years, roster holes everywhere and Cap hell was what he had to deal with. Look at them now. Winning without drafting well........Weird! And a war chest to spend in FA and a promising young QB on a rookie deal. This almost sounds like the very definition of a competitive rebuild to me. Would it have been easier if they would have hit on a few more draft picks? No question, but its not the end of the world that they didn't. KAM is IVY League Educated in Economics (Stanford & Princeton), he's a data guy. Analytics is his thing. He has put together a winner when none of us expected much out of them for several years (look at some old post on this very forum for proof). I don't think is reasonable or fair to look at KAM's performance as GM as anything but an overall success up to this point and much, much deserving of a healthy extension. I would be shocked if the Wilf's did anything but sign him to a big fat extension. He has earned it!!
He is also 0-2 in the playoffs against two teams that weren't very good playoff teams when the talent on those teams got exposed. He hired a great head coach who has managed to hide the deficiencies on each team has been given, or 2024 would have been his last season ever as a GM.

Regular season success is fine, but you have to ask yourself if this team going into 2025 is in a better spot than it was when KAM took over from a talent standpoint and if it is better, are we anywhere close to competing for a Super Bowl after 3 off seasons to rebuild this roster? Or are we constantly in a rebuild each season as he continues to sign guys to short term deals and is unable to replace them via the draft?

How good is Philly if they didn't draft Jurgens, Carter, Mitchell, Dejean or Nolan Smith? How good is KC if they didn't have Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Watson, Cook, Conner, Caliendo or Worthy? Those are the guys contributing on SB teams who were drafted since Kwesi took over, and in comparison you have Addison and a kicker who ended the season poorly for Kwesi. Is it any wonder we got smoked in the first round not by the eventual SB winner, but by a team that didn't make it out of the divisional round?

The draft 100% matters and arguing otherwise is just an effort to excuse our GM being bad at half his job.

How good is Philly if they didn't bring in Fangio is the question you should be asking. Who made the call to bring him in? It was collaborative I am sure, but they all share in the credit for it. Are those players you listed the players they are if they didn't bring in Fangio? KC has Mahomes and Reid. Arguably the best QB coach combo in the history of the game. The Vikings are not the Chiefs. They lack the QB and the Coach. But I feel more Optimistic than I have in a long time that they might have both on the roster now. KAM gets some credit for that IMO.

From where I sit this team is in a great spot for 2025. I think you should re-evaluate your evaluation process.

What's wrong with signing proven talent to short term deals to fill holes as needed? I never said the draft doesn't matter, I said it's just not as important of a roster building tool as everyone likes to make it out to be. Mock drafts are fun and the draft keeps the NFL front and center for a few more months each year and employ's a whole bunch of talking heads, but the analytics of draft success paint a different picture of the draft than all of the talking heads would like everyone to think. The draft is part of Roster building no question, but it doesn't matter if we draft them or someone else drafts them and we end up with them. Coaching, focus on Core positions as determined by the coaches/organization as it applies to the systems that they run and filling holes in other areas with the most value you can find, wherever that value comes from.

I am not making excuses for anyone, I just have a completely different perspective on all of this than you, that's all. If winning the debate matters to you, you win. I am not even trying to win. I am just sharing my take on it all. Take it for what is; just another opinion.......
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by StumpHunter »

Alaskan wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:29 pm From where I sit this team is in a great spot for 2025. I think you should re-evaluate your evaluation process.
The team has very few picks, has one starter returning in the secondary, needs to completely rebuild it's interior Oline and Dline, has no RB, and was miles away from competing for a SB this past year. But it has salary cap to spend in a very weak free agency class, so there is that.
What's wrong with signing proven talent to short term deals to fill holes as needed?
First, signing talent to a bunch of short term deals is generally more expensive than signing them to multiple year deals on a year-by-year basis. An extreme example of this is that Patrick Mahomes making 15 million less per year than Dak Prescott because he signed his deal 4 years ago when QB salaries were cheaper.

Second, it forces the GM to rebuild much of his roster every season, and what if in the next season there aren't good free agents available at all of those positions of need? What if Kwesi has a free agency like he did in 2023 versus the one he had in 2024, when he added very little in terms of talent on defense and even Flores couldn't make them a top 10 unit?

It is a good way to build an overpriced roster with a bunch of aging players their previous team didn't want, and with great coaching it can work in the regular season, but it is not a way to build a championship roster.
I am not making excuses for anyone, I just have a completely different perspective on all of this than you, that's all. If winning the debate matters to you, you win. I am not even trying to win. I am just sharing my take on it all. Take it for what is; just another opinion.......
I don't think you are diminishing the value of the draft to win a debate, I think you are doing it because you want to believe in your favorite team's GM.

It is the only reason I can think of for you to have a take that is so out there.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Alaskan »

StumpHunter wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:45 pm
Alaskan wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:29 pm From where I sit this team is in a great spot for 2025. I think you should re-evaluate your evaluation process.
The team has very few picks, has one starter returning in the secondary, needs to completely rebuild it's interior Oline and Dline, has no RB, and was miles away from competing for a SB this past year. But it has salary cap to spend in a very weak free agency class, so there is that.
What's wrong with signing proven talent to short term deals to fill holes as needed?
First, signing talent to a bunch of short term deals is generally more expensive than signing them to multiple year deals on a year-by-year basis. An extreme example of this is that Patrick Mahomes making 15 million less per year than Dak Prescott because he signed his deal 4 years ago when QB salaries were cheaper.

Second, it forces the GM to rebuild much of his roster every season, and what if in the next season there aren't good free agents available at all of those positions of need? What if Kwesi has a free agency like he did in 2023 versus the one he had in 2024, when he added very little in terms of talent on defense and even Flores couldn't make them a top 10 unit?

It is a good way to build an overpriced roster with a bunch of aging players their previous team didn't want, and with great coaching it can work in the regular season, but it is not a way to build a championship roster.
I am not making excuses for anyone, I just have a completely different perspective on all of this than you, that's all. If winning the debate matters to you, you win. I am not even trying to win. I am just sharing my take on it all. Take it for what is; just another opinion.......
I don't think you are diminishing the value of the draft to win a debate, I think you are doing it because you want to believe in your favorite team's GM.

It is the only reason I can think of for you to have a take that is so out there.
Here's Wiki on your favorite GM; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howie_Roseman

I am sure you were already aware how long he's been working at getting it right as a GM. KAM's sample size isn't near what Howie's is. This really has nothing to do with the "my favorite team" narrative at all. That was your weak attempt at an underhanded jab.
This has everything to do with the I am not a fan of blowing it up and firing the GM who has been a winner the 3 years he has been in charge. Its that simple. Continuity and Cohesiveness are imperative to building a championship culture. KAM and the coaches will sort it out this offseason and all the roster gloom and doom you projected above will get worked out. Will it be championship level? Time will tell. Much will depend on QB play!
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by makila »

One of the main cornerstones of what a GM does (I realize there are other things), is to add talent to the roster. If they can't do that, they aren't going to be a successful GM. Which usually involves being successful at the draft at some point. KAM has just been flat out bad at the draft. We have extremely minimal good contributions from drafted players over the last three drafts. Even the ones we've had get a lot of starts (ie Ingram) have been poor quality.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by Raz »

I haven’t read every post in this thread so if it has been hashed over before forgive me. I have mixed emotions on Kewsi mostly good but man these drafts haven’t been good, but they weren’t exactly great under speilman either. What has the organization done about the scouting department? I don’t know the process but I’m sure Kewsi has many people he relies on to get things right are any of them hold overs from the previous gm. I don’t have the data but I remember reading that we were bottom of the league in draft picks with second contracts. Until this drafting gets better it will be a struggle. I know a big risk but an option on Darnold’s contract would look pretty good now.
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Re: Offseason Thread

Post by VikingLord »

StumpHunter wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:45 pm It is the only reason I can think of for you to have a take that is so out there.
Or, more likely, he's just a troll...