Offseason Thread

[makila]

Would you have any reservation letting KAM draft this year on a lame duck contract? I would be worried he would mortgage a lot of future for the now.

Something like targeting players from other teams for 1st rounders next year and beyond? Signing them to cap-killing contracts that kick in later, etc?

Seems like it would be a good way to lose his job and then also not be hired by anybody else.

If the only reason you would extend a guy is so he doesn't blow your team's future up then go ahead and fire him.

Yeah that's kind of what I was getting at. Obviously I have zero insight into what the Wilf's think. I do get concerned about telling a GM "you are in a prove it season or we fire you" before going into a draft and free agency. Not saying my concerns are founded, just they exist. Since in that scenario he's basically been told you're losing your job if you don't get it right anyways, so what's the incentive to protect future draft assets? etc. Lame duck GMs worry me.

[Cliff]

Something like targeting players from other teams for 1st rounders next year and beyond? Signing them to cap-killing contracts that kick in later, etc?

Seems like it would be a good way to lose his job and then also not be hired by anybody else.

If the only reason you would extend a guy is so he doesn't blow your team's future up then go ahead and fire him.

Yeah that's kind of what I was getting at. Obviously I have zero insight into what the Wilf's think. I do get concerned about telling a GM "you are in a prove it season or we fire you" before going into a draft and free agency. Not saying my concerns are founded, just they exist. Since in that scenario he's basically been told you're losing your job if you don't get it right anyways, so what's the incentive to protect future draft assets? etc. Lame duck GMs worry me.

I get what you mean, I'm just not as worried. To me it's motivation for him to do his best. Just like GMs do to players. If "his best" is demolishing the team's future to look out for himself then it's a good thing he wasn't extended any further. Odds are he also won't be getting hired as a GM anywhere else if he does that. Possibly ever. Plus he still has to consider what happens if his choices actually put together a good team and he is extended. He's now screwed himself over in the future.

[VikingLord]

I do get concerned about telling a GM "you are in a prove it season or we fire you" before going into a draft and free agency. Not saying my concerns are founded, just they exist. Since in that scenario he's basically been told you're losing your job if you don't get it right anyways, so what's the incentive to protect future draft assets? etc. Lame duck GMs worry me.

He has plenty of incentive if he wants anyone else to consider hiring him.

Also, there is a difference between letting a contract expire and firing someone. KAM will be in the last year of his initial deal. All the Wilfs are doing by not extending him is allowing that final year to play out before they make a decision. For all we know, an extension hasn't happened because KAM believes he is worth a lot more than the Vikings are willing to offer him. He could be pulling a "Cousins" for all we know, and based on his public comments to date and the sentiment of some on this board that equate the Vikings' regular season records over the last 3 seasons to KAM's performance as the GM during that time period, KAM may very well be doing exactly that.

KAM has arguably already traded the future for the present anyway. What more could he really do to trade that away given how few picks he has in this year's draft? He's got a bottom half 1st and two 5ths to parlay. Kind of hard to be a player in the draft with so little ammunition left in the clip.

But if the Wilfs were worried about KAM taking his ball and going home early because he didn't get extended, KAM has a lot more on the line in my opinion. He can't really screw the Vikings organization without also screwing himself in the process.

[CharVike]

What's interesting about the KAM discussion and his possible extension is our organization seems to be a continuation of the triangle of authority that the Wilf's implemented after they bought the team. I found this below.
All three corners of the Triangle reported directly to owner Zygi Wilf, meaning big-picture and long-term decisions were required to be made as a group. The checks-and-balance theory sounds good in principle but doesn't always work in practice. In football franchises stocked with Type A personalities, it helps to know who is in charge. During Wilf's ownership tenure, that basic question has always been unanswerable.
So here we sit today and our HC has an open ended extension and our GM is supposedly negotiating a long term deal and we have Brez working in the background with the cap and other soft stuff. Looks like a 3 point reporting independently back to ownership. That seems odd to me. Can KAM fire KOC? Can KOC fire KAM? Can either go back to the owner to get the other fired? Sounds like a circle jerk.
What if they give KAM a 2 year extension which would appear to break the GM/HC bind. Would that indicate an unstable organization?
Whatever they do don't matter much to me. I do feel they will keep the QB room filled at any cost because they don't want another 2023 and they certainly don't want another Childress/Frazier/lesser Zimmer sequence when QB's were shuffled like playing cards. Which amounted to having nothing for long stretches. Teams can't compete like that even with very talented rosters like we had in 2008ish era. One year with old timer near washed up Farve standing out.

[VikingLord]

What's interesting about the KAM discussion and his possible extension is our organization seems to be a continuation of the triangle of authority that the Wilf's implemented after they bought the team. I found this below.
All three corners of the Triangle reported directly to owner Zygi Wilf, meaning big-picture and long-term decisions were required to be made as a group. The checks-and-balance theory sounds good in principle but doesn't always work in practice. In football franchises stocked with Type A personalities, it helps to know who is in charge. During Wilf's ownership tenure, that basic question has always been unanswerable.
So here we sit today and our HC has an open ended extension and our GM is supposedly negotiating a long term deal and we have Brez working in the background with the cap and other soft stuff. Looks like a 3 point reporting independently back to ownership. That seems odd to me. Can KAM fire KOC? Can KOC fire KAM? Can either go back to the owner to get the other fired? Sounds like a circle jerk.
What if they give KAM a 2 year extension which would appear to break the GM/HC bind. Would that indicate an unstable organization?
Whatever they do don't matter much to me. I do feel they will keep the QB room filled at any cost because they don't want another 2023 and they certainly don't want another Childress/Frazier/lesser Zimmer sequence when QB's were shuffled like playing cards. Which amounted to having nothing for long stretches. Teams can't compete like that even with very talented rosters like we had in 2008ish era. One year with old timer near washed up Farve standing out.

There are two main issues with the Vikings right now from where I sit - they are not drafting well and they are not paying for those failures on the field as of yet. Since KAM and KOC came to the Vikings they have had a 13 win season where they were net negative in point differential and a 1st round exit to a very flawed opponent, a season where they somehow managed 7 wins despite being forced to start their kicker at QB for a large percentage of the season (not literally, of course, but you get the gist of what I'm saying), and now a 14 win season with a one-year vet rental at QB and another 1st round exit in the playoffs to another flawed opponent. In that time they've collectively gotten the fewest starts out of players they've drafted apart from the Dolphins who actually lost draft picks due to league punishment. Somehow they are getting maximum results on the field out of minimum results in multiple drafts. Further, they've acted in the draft as if they're in win-now mode, resulting in an upcoming draft where they will have 3 total picks as of right now. They used that draft capital last year to trade up for a QB who they never intended to start and a OLB who couldn't get on the field for most of the season. They also face an offseason where literally all of their starting defensive secondary players may turn over and they have serious talent concerns along the interior of both lines and are not settled at the QB position even if they have a lot of potential QBs on the roster.

It's really not a recipe for success.

As for who is to blame for the current situation, to your point above, maybe everyone and maybe no one. Where does the buck stop with this team? Maybe the ongoing challenges are a symptom of the way the team is organized and run. Or maybe they're just unluckily lucky. It's hard to say.

[CharVike]

What's interesting about the KAM discussion and his possible extension is our organization seems to be a continuation of the triangle of authority that the Wilf's implemented after they bought the team. I found this below.
All three corners of the Triangle reported directly to owner Zygi Wilf, meaning big-picture and long-term decisions were required to be made as a group. The checks-and-balance theory sounds good in principle but doesn't always work in practice. In football franchises stocked with Type A personalities, it helps to know who is in charge. During Wilf's ownership tenure, that basic question has always been unanswerable.
So here we sit today and our HC has an open ended extension and our GM is supposedly negotiating a long term deal and we have Brez working in the background with the cap and other soft stuff. Looks like a 3 point reporting independently back to ownership. That seems odd to me. Can KAM fire KOC? Can KOC fire KAM? Can either go back to the owner to get the other fired? Sounds like a circle jerk.
What if they give KAM a 2 year extension which would appear to break the GM/HC bind. Would that indicate an unstable organization?
Whatever they do don't matter much to me. I do feel they will keep the QB room filled at any cost because they don't want another 2023 and they certainly don't want another Childress/Frazier/lesser Zimmer sequence when QB's were shuffled like playing cards. Which amounted to having nothing for long stretches. Teams can't compete like that even with very talented rosters like we had in 2008ish era. One year with old timer near washed up Farve standing out.

There are two main issues with the Vikings right now from where I sit - they are not drafting well and they are not paying for those failures on the field as of yet. Since KAM and KOC came to the Vikings they have had a 13 win season where they were net negative in point differential and a 1st round exit to a very flawed opponent, a season where they somehow managed 7 wins despite being forced to start their kicker at QB for a large percentage of the season (not literally, of course, but you get the gist of what I'm saying), and now a 14 win season with a one-year vet rental at QB and another 1st round exit in the playoffs to another flawed opponent. In that time they've collectively gotten the fewest starts out of players they've drafted apart from the Dolphins who actually lost draft picks due to league punishment. Somehow they are getting maximum results on the field out of minimum results in multiple drafts. Further, they've acted in the draft as if they're in win-now mode, resulting in an upcoming draft where they will have 3 total picks as of right now. They used that draft capital last year to trade up for a QB who they never intended to start and a OLB who couldn't get on the field for most of the season. They also face an offseason where literally all of their starting defensive secondary players may turn over and they have serious talent concerns along the interior of both lines and are not settled at the QB position even if they have a lot of potential QBs on the roster.

It's really not a recipe for success.

As for who is to blame for the current situation, to your point above, maybe everyone and maybe no one. Where does the buck stop with this team? Maybe the ongoing challenges are a symptom of the way the team is organized and run. Or maybe they're just unluckily lucky. It's hard to say.

That was a good read and thanks for the effort. We have enough talent that we can beat the not so good teams and compete against the good teams but can't beat the best teams. Our flaws are to great to cover up against the better opponents. I will give our coaching staff credit for getting the most out of the talent they had. That lack of overall talent was the main reason why we were projected to have 6.5 wins. The lack of talent comes from bad drafting. Signing FA's is a quick fix to cover up misses in the draft. Murph was signed to fix bad drafting starting with Booth Jr. Gilmore was another fix for the same and injuries. They have a lot of work to do this off season. Just signing our own FA's like Murph and Bynum will help but won't be cheap. We also have Darrisaw coming back from injury. Will that require them to sign Robinson in case the rehab takes a full year. Robinson isn't cheap either. Will Rouse be able to fill the possible gap. Much work to do.

[CharVike]

Free agent Trey Smith who's is a dream for G needed teams like us, Pats, Bears, Chargers ect received some disappointing grades for his playoff performance pass blocking. Of course each team has their grades but it will be interesting if PFF grades influence the finale outcome for this.
Against the Eagles, Smith was given a 49.2 pass-blocking grade from PFF after he allowed three pressures and gave up a sack. During the entire 2024 postseason, only six guards had a worse pass-blocking grade from PFF than Smith's 40.8 grade (out of 22 qualifying guards). In eight matchups against non-playoff teams in the 2024 season, Smith averaged a 72.1 pass-blocking grade from PFF. During Kansas City's 12 contests against playoff teams in the 2024 campaign, the veteran guard saw his PFF pass-blocking grade average drop to 57.6.
I'm not taking anything away from Smith because he appears to have everything I like from a G including size. Is he an upgrade for us? Of course but how high will we go in the bidding war is another question. I'm not so sure that our team will invest big bucks into the G slot. We have 2 highly paid tackles who should help ease the G pain.

[VikingLord]

Free agent Trey Smith who's is a dream for G needed teams like us, Pats, Bears, Chargers ect received some disappointing grades for his playoff performance pass blocking. Of course each team has their grades but it will be interesting if PFF grades influence the finale outcome for this.
Against the Eagles, Smith was given a 49.2 pass-blocking grade from PFF after he allowed three pressures and gave up a sack. During the entire 2024 postseason, only six guards had a worse pass-blocking grade from PFF than Smith's 40.8 grade (out of 22 qualifying guards). In eight matchups against non-playoff teams in the 2024 season, Smith averaged a 72.1 pass-blocking grade from PFF. During Kansas City's 12 contests against playoff teams in the 2024 campaign, the veteran guard saw his PFF pass-blocking grade average drop to 57.6.
I'm not taking anything away from Smith because he appears to have everything I like from a G including size. Is he an upgrade for us? Of course but how high will we go in the bidding war is another question. I'm not so sure that our team will invest big bucks into the G slot. We have 2 highly paid tackles who should help ease the G pain.

This just illustrates why free agency can be risky, not unlike the draft. Free agency can provide some gems, albeit at a high cost relative to drafted players on rookie deals, but because those players come at a higher relative cost it can also produce some monumental busts.

Trey Smith is going to be the marquee guard in free agency. I've read he'll command around $20 million a year. The "next tier" guards in free agency will command between $10-15 million per year. The Vikings happen to be in dire need of not one, but two, guards this offseason, and one could argue they also need a center. This is a super weak draft at center. The pickings at guard are better at the top of the talent pool, but things fall off quickly once you go past the first 4 prospects, and I only consider one of those top 4 to be good value at #24 (Tyler Booker of Alabama). If KAM were to trade down into the first half of the 2nd I'd say the other 3 would be better value there, but KAM is simply not going to be able to solve the IOL issues in the draft this offseason. He's going to have to take a swing in free agency and maybe two swings, especially if he wants to increase the odds that JJ McCarthy will succeed.

It's a tall order, and I'm not sure it makes sense or is even practical for the Vikings to spend $20 million on Trey Smith when they have so many other holes on the defensive side of the football.

The way the draft is shaping up it looks like CB, S, RB and DL will be the best value when #24 rolls around. Because KAM doesn't have many picks later in the draft I also think there is a strong likelihood he trades down. If he's tempted to do that I hope he takes a long, hard look at the talent on the board when his pick comes up. It's harder to get a big name prospect that far down the board in the 1st, but not impossible, and I think there is an outside chance a real impact player could fall there, especially at safety.

[CharVike]

Free agent Trey Smith who's is a dream for G needed teams like us, Pats, Bears, Chargers ect received some disappointing grades for his playoff performance pass blocking. Of course each team has their grades but it will be interesting if PFF grades influence the finale outcome for this.
Against the Eagles, Smith was given a 49.2 pass-blocking grade from PFF after he allowed three pressures and gave up a sack. During the entire 2024 postseason, only six guards had a worse pass-blocking grade from PFF than Smith's 40.8 grade (out of 22 qualifying guards). In eight matchups against non-playoff teams in the 2024 season, Smith averaged a 72.1 pass-blocking grade from PFF. During Kansas City's 12 contests against playoff teams in the 2024 campaign, the veteran guard saw his PFF pass-blocking grade average drop to 57.6.
I'm not taking anything away from Smith because he appears to have everything I like from a G including size. Is he an upgrade for us? Of course but how high will we go in the bidding war is another question. I'm not so sure that our team will invest big bucks into the G slot. We have 2 highly paid tackles who should help ease the G pain.

This just illustrates why free agency can be risky, not unlike the draft. Free agency can provide some gems, albeit at a high cost relative to drafted players on rookie deals, but because those players come at a higher relative cost it can also produce some monumental busts.

Trey Smith is going to be the marquee guard in free agency. I've read he'll command around $20 million a year. The "next tier" guards in free agency will command between $10-15 million per year. The Vikings happen to be in dire need of not one, but two, guards this offseason, and one could argue they also need a center. This is a super weak draft at center. The pickings at guard are better at the top of the talent pool, but things fall off quickly once you go past the first 4 prospects, and I only consider one of those top 4 to be good value at #24 (Tyler Booker of Alabama). If KAM were to trade down into the first half of the 2nd I'd say the other 3 would be better value there, but KAM is simply not going to be able to solve the IOL issues in the draft this offseason. He's going to have to take a swing in free agency and maybe two swings, especially if he wants to increase the odds that JJ McCarthy will succeed.

It's a tall order, and I'm not sure it makes sense or is even practical for the Vikings to spend $20 million on Trey Smith when they have so many other holes on the defensive side of the football.

The way the draft is shaping up it looks like CB, S, RB and DL will be the best value when #24 rolls around. Because KAM doesn't have many picks later in the draft I also think there is a strong likelihood he trades down. If he's tempted to do that I hope he takes a long, hard look at the talent on the board when his pick comes up. It's harder to get a big name prospect that far down the board in the 1st, but not impossible, and I think there is an outside chance a real impact player could fall there, especially at safety.

I don't see the Chiefs letting Smith walk. If they do then something is up. One way that KAM can improve his number of picks is a tag and trade of Darnold. There's a dire need for QB's so they need to ensure they get something. Plus he isn't some old timer he has another decade to go. Of course a framework for a deal needs to be worked out before the tag. Perhaps they can look at getting a 1st round swap of picks so we can get inside the top 10 and draft Ashton Jeanty before Dallas. From what I've read he is an all around great back. I've seen safety in some mocks. Below is an example of the Rams missing in FA.
The Los Angeles Rams paid Jonah Jackson as if he was a top-5 guard in the NFL, then they moved him to center where he was paid as if he was the NFL’s best center. Now it’s a matter of whether or not the Rams want to continue experimenting with the $17 million per season lineman or release him just one year after propping him up as elite.
The Rams have until the third day of the 2025 league year — which is going to be March 15 — to release or trade Jackson, otherwise his entire base salary becomes guaranteed.

[Cliff]

“The Vikings and RB Aaron Jones agreed to move the void date on his contract from this Monday until the final day before free agency,” ESPN’s Field Yates reported on X on February 15. “If Jones had not been extended by Monday, the team would have taken on $3.2M in dead money in 2025.

“This expands the window for Jones and Minnesota to continue to negotiate a new deal that would avoid that amount hitting the cap in full for 2025.”

“It doesn’t guarantee a new deal will be reached,” Yates said in the post, “but it buys time for both sides if there is interest in hammering one out before free agency.”

[CharVike]

“The Vikings and RB Aaron Jones agreed to move the void date on his contract from this Monday until the final day before free agency,” ESPN’s Field Yates reported on X on February 15. “If Jones had not been extended by Monday, the team would have taken on $3.2M in dead money in 2025.

“This expands the window for Jones and Minnesota to continue to negotiate a new deal that would avoid that amount hitting the cap in full for 2025.”

“It doesn’t guarantee a new deal will be reached,” Yates said in the post, “but it buys time for both sides if there is interest in hammering one out before free agency.”

Other potential dead cap hits.
The Vikings could see Byron Murphy Jr. leave behind $4.2 million in dead money if there's no new deal.
The Vikings could also see Harrison Smith leave behind more than $6.5 million, Sam Darnold with $5 million, Stephon Gilmore more than $2.3 million, and Aaron Jones $3.2 million.

[VikingLord]

Other potential dead cap hits.
The Vikings could see Byron Murphy Jr. leave behind $4.2 million in dead money if there's no new deal.
The Vikings could also see Harrison Smith leave behind more than $6.5 million, Sam Darnold with $5 million, Stephon Gilmore more than $2.3 million, and Aaron Jones $3.2 million.

This is surprising to me. I thought most of these players were on short term deals that allowed either side to walk away, but this sounds like the Vikings are still on the salary cap hook even if the players walk.

Did KAM do those deals to lower their cap hit last season? Because I can't think of another reason why a GM would ever make a deal that leaves salary cap impacts after a player is no longer with the team.

[VikingLord]

I don't see the Chiefs letting Smith walk. If they do then something is up.

I could. The Chiefs have to consider Smith's contract in the context of how their overall contract situation will look over the life of any deal they give him. They also have to consider the talent they feel they have behind him on the roster or in the upcoming draft. The fact he didn't sign an extension suggests they're willing to entertain losing him.

One way that KAM can improve his number of picks is a tag and trade of Darnold. There's a dire need for QB's so they need to ensure they get something. Plus he isn't some old timer he has another decade to go. Of course a framework for a deal needs to be worked out before the tag. Perhaps they can look at getting a 1st round swap of picks so we can get inside the top 10 and draft Ashton Jeanty before Dallas. From what I've read he is an all around great back.

I don't think the Vikings could get a high 1st for Darnold. Darnold has a reputation by now and while he had a great season, it's arguable whether he could repeat it again even with the Vikings, much less another team and head coach. I do think Darnold can command a nice deal in free agency, but I just don't see anyone signing him to a mega deal after watching those last two games, much less giving the Vikings a top pick in the 1st round plus taking on a market-rate deal to boot.

Jeanty is a very good RB. He'll be long gone by the time the Vikings get to the podium.

There will be some very good talent at 24. We'll see if KAM can recognize it or if he punts and trades down for more, but less impactful, picks.

[StumpHunter]

Other potential dead cap hits.
The Vikings could see Byron Murphy Jr. leave behind $4.2 million in dead money if there's no new deal.
The Vikings could also see Harrison Smith leave behind more than $6.5 million, Sam Darnold with $5 million, Stephon Gilmore more than $2.3 million, and Aaron Jones $3.2 million.

This is surprising to me. I thought most of these players were on short term deals that allowed either side to walk away, but this sounds like the Vikings are still on the salary cap hook even if the players walk.

Did KAM do those deals to lower their cap hit last season? Because I can't think of another reason why a GM would ever make a deal that leaves salary cap impacts after a player is no longer with the team.

Pretty much every deal he signed last year had void years attached.

As always with these situations, that money is gone and should be ignored as a factor in deciding to re-sign a player or not (if they need more cap to spend on other free agents, they can just do the exact same thing and add void years to lower the cost).

[VikingLord]

This is surprising to me. I thought most of these players were on short term deals that allowed either side to walk away, but this sounds like the Vikings are still on the salary cap hook even if the players walk.

Did KAM do those deals to lower their cap hit last season? Because I can't think of another reason why a GM would ever make a deal that leaves salary cap impacts after a player is no longer with the team.

Pretty much every deal he signed last year had void years attached.

As always with these situations, that money is gone and should be ignored as a factor in deciding to re-sign a player or not (if they need more cap to spend on other free agents, they can just do the exact same thing and add void years to lower the cost).

Ah, OK. I was wondering what the benefit of adding void years to a contract was for the team. It's basically a way to lower the cap hit in the year the player plays for the team, but then the team is still on the hook for it in subsequent year(s), with the cost distributed over the number of void years?