Falcons at Vikings

[Cliff]

I am at a loss on how JJ can be the forgotten man in our offense. He is running good routes, seems to get open. I mean its great to spread the ball around and keep the defense guessing but he is being criminally under utilized.

He's got the second most yards of any any receiver in the NFL, 7th most targets. He's got 107 targets while Addison, Hockenson, and Jones combined have 135. I'm not sure that perception matches reality.

[chicagopurple]

It seems like he gets a few long catches in every game and gets respectable yards. He hadnt had a TD in many many weeks till this week. I am not sure how many targets he has averaged per game but it feels lower than I would expect.

[psjordan]

I am at a loss on how JJ can be the forgotten man in our offense. He is running good routes, seems to get open. I mean its great to spread the ball around and keep the defense guessing but he is being criminally under utilized.

He's got the second most yards of any any receiver in the NFL, 7th most targets. He's got 107 targets while Addison, Hockenson, and Jones combined have 135. I'm not sure that perception matches reality.

Don't quote me on this, but my mental count is at least three games now that JJ did not have a target until the middle of the 2nd quarter - or later.

To your point - he's the kind of player that there's no way he should be 7th in targets - he should be first by a decent margin. You simply cannot let your best player - and maybe the best at his position in the NFL - languish for large portions of games. There are a LOT of creative ways to get him the ball - or at least a target - on the first possession of every single game. I just think KOC is being lazy, but that's just me.

Again don't quote me, but JJ's touches certainly seem to be "2nd half heavy", in large part because we're scrambling to get back in the game or keep it competitive.

[VikingLord]

So that's a long-winded way of saying I love the wins to date but mostly hate the approach, as I don't think it is sustainable under pressure. And unfortunately for me, that leads to apathy about 15 minutes after yet another late-game win.

It would be really funny if both of us were saying the same thing the day after the Vikings win the Superbowl this year...

I know that is unlikely. I also know that if there is a pro football team somewhere in the larger Universe that is most likely to be on the right side of unlikely, it has to be the Minnesota Vikings. No other team I've ever seen has managed to blow almost sure things with the consistency that this team has done it over multiple seasons. It stands to reason, at least in my view, that the opposite must be true for this team even if we haven't witnessed it yet since everything contains it's opposite. There must be a time when this team wins in spite of itself rather than losing in spite of itself. Perhaps many such times lie ahead, although I'd be more than happy to witness that just once. God knows we've witnessed enough of the improbable losses to last all of us a lifetime and then some.

[Cliff]

It seems like he gets a few long catches in every game and gets respectable yards. He hadnt had a TD in many many weeks till this week. I am not sure how many targets he has averaged per game but it feels lower than I would expect.

He gets more double and triple teams in the red zone usually which explains some of that. It makes sense to go to the open man.

[Cliff]

He's got the second most yards of any any receiver in the NFL, 7th most targets. He's got 107 targets while Addison, Hockenson, and Jones combined have 135. I'm not sure that perception matches reality.

Don't quote me on this, but my mental count is at least three games now that JJ did not have a target until the middle of the 2nd quarter - or later.

To your point - he's the kind of player that there's no way he should be 7th in targets - he should be first by a decent margin. You simply cannot let your best player - and maybe the best at his position in the NFL - languish for large portions of games. There are a LOT of creative ways to get him the ball - or at least a target - on the first possession of every single game. I just think KOC is being lazy, but that's just me.

Again don't quote me, but JJ's touches certainly seem to be "2nd half heavy", in large part because we're scrambling to get back in the game or keep it competitive.

I don't know about at what point he is getting the targets but that makes sense. A team double and triple covers Jets and makes them prove other players can beat them. That gets proven and he starts getting better looks.

7th in targets is relative. The Vikings have the 25th most targets with 367. "Targets" meaning attempts minus sacks, QB rushes, and throw aways. As a percentage of the team's overall targets he is 107 of 367 or a little over 29%. Compare that with Ja'Marr Chase who is the current yardage leader. He's got 127 targets, but his team has a total of 470 targets. So he's at 27% of the team's overall targets. CeeDee Lamb has the most targets in the league at 131, but his team has 496 total targets so just over 26% of his team's total targets.

If teams are double and triple covering Jets early on, which seems to be the case but I don't think stats exist for, then him getting more looks later in the game makes a ton of sense to me. I don't want them forcing the ball to him if they have other skilled players in single coverage. Specifically Addison now that he seems to be fully recovered from the injury.

[CharVike]

Don't quote me on this, but my mental count is at least three games now that JJ did not have a target until the middle of the 2nd quarter - or later.

To your point - he's the kind of player that there's no way he should be 7th in targets - he should be first by a decent margin. You simply cannot let your best player - and maybe the best at his position in the NFL - languish for large portions of games. There are a LOT of creative ways to get him the ball - or at least a target - on the first possession of every single game. I just think KOC is being lazy, but that's just me.

Again don't quote me, but JJ's touches certainly seem to be "2nd half heavy", in large part because we're scrambling to get back in the game or keep it competitive.

I don't know about at what point he is getting the targets but that makes sense. A team double and triple covers Jets and makes them prove other players can beat them. That gets proven and he starts getting better looks.

7th in targets is relative. The Vikings have the 25th most targets with 367. "Targets" meaning attempts minus sacks, QB rushes, and throw aways. As a percentage of the team's overall targets he is 107 of 367 or a little over 29%. Compare that with Ja'Marr Chase who is the current yardage leader. He's got 127 targets, but his team has a total of 470 targets. So he's at 27% of the team's overall targets. CeeDee Lamb has the most targets in the league at 131, but his team has 496 total targets so just over 26% of his team's total targets.

If teams are double and triple covering Jets early on, which seems to be the case but I don't think stats exist for, then him getting more looks later in the game makes a ton of sense to me. I don't want them forcing the ball to him if they have other skilled players in single coverage. Specifically Addison now that he seems to be fully recovered from the injury.

I was going to point out the stuff you did but the big thing IMO is Addison can take a shorter throw to the house. Since he has been here he has shown the ability to score. Some recent examples are catching an out route and then turning up field and racing down the sideline for a score. Catching a square in and then splitting the secondary for a score. That's big play ability and can't be ignored. That flips the game quickly. Getting wrapped up in making sure a player gets a certain amount of targets within a certain portion of the game isn't the right approach at all. It reminds me of the Randy Ratio and that didn't get us anything.

[psjordan]

I don't want them forcing the ball to him if they have other skilled players in single coverage.

Getting wrapped up in making sure a player gets a certain amount of targets within a certain portion of the game isn't the right approach at all. It reminds me of the Randy Ratio and that didn't get us anything.

Not sure why folks equate being creative (and not lazy) in order to get a superstar player involved has to boil down to "forcing" or "ratios". It has nothing to do with either. As I mentioned prior, I had superstar players in the sport I coached and I did everything I could do as a coach to make sure no team "took those players away" for large chunks of games. Trust me, it can be done. And it doesn't involve "forcing" or "making sure" a player touches the ball a certain amount of times. It involved being creative enough to get a superstar the ball. It doesn't involve running the same plays from the same playbook and throwing the ball to a guy who is triple-covered until we hit the number of times we wanted to throw him the ball. It involves ways to make sure it's almost impossible to double or triple team one player.

It's one of my major disappointments with KOC - our playbook and our game plans lack creativity. A lot of times creativity starts with stealing and then modifying things from other teams, from college to the pros. I've seen very little of that from this staff.

Now I do understand the absurdity of stating all the above for a team that is currently 11-2. But if we don't get creative during the regular season, there's no way we can pull it off in the postseason.

[J. Kapp 11]

I don't want them forcing the ball to him if they have other skilled players in single coverage.

Getting wrapped up in making sure a player gets a certain amount of targets within a certain portion of the game isn't the right approach at all. It reminds me of the Randy Ratio and that didn't get us anything.

Not sure why folks equate being creative (and not lazy) in order to get a superstar player involved has to boil down to "forcing" or "ratios". It has nothing to do with either. As I mentioned prior, I had superstar players in the sport I coached and I did everything I could do as a coach to make sure no team "took those players away" for large chunks of games. Trust me, it can be done. And it doesn't involve "forcing" or "making sure" a player touches the ball a certain amount of times. It involved being creative enough to get a superstar the ball. It doesn't involve running the same plays from the same playbook and throwing the ball to a guy who is triple-covered until we hit the number of times we wanted to throw him the ball. It involves ways to make sure it's almost impossible to double or triple team one player.

It's one of my major disappointments with KOC - our playbook and our game plans lack creativity. A lot of times creativity starts with stealing and then modifying things from other teams, from college to the pros. I've seen very little of that from this staff.

Now I do understand the absurdity of stating all the above for a team that is currently 11-2. But if we don't get creative during the regular season, there's no way we can pull it off in the postseason.

Gotta disagree about KOC.

Go on YouTube and watch some of the guys who break down the game at a pro level. Guys like Chase Daniel and JT O’Sullivan. They consistently praise KOC for his creativity in getting guys open, and the biggest thing they praise him about is how he uses Jefferson’s immense gravity to draw safeties and open up green grass on other parts of the field. They’ll talk about how maybe a team is supposed to be playing middle field closed, but the safety will cheat ever so slightly — often not more than a step, or even just give leverage JJ’s way — and that’s enough to make him late on throws over the top to someone else like Addison. Or how JJ constantly being in motion stresses a defense and makes it impossible to jam him.

Not saying you don’t know football. But these guys know what they’re talking about at the pro level, and they explain it on a granular level.

I believe JJ tends to come alive in the second half because as the season wears on, teams have more and more tape on the Vikings, and they devise ways to minimize Jefferson’s direct impact. But at halftime, as was the case last night, KOC and the staff make the adjustments, and JJ begins to dominate.

Finally, if the opponent figures out how to minimize JJ’s first- half targets, but one of the few targets he does get is a red zone touchdown (as was the case against the Bears — and he dropped a second), I can live with that.

Bottom line, we have one of the top-5 best coaches in the NFL. To me, the only thing keeping the Vikings from scoring 35 a game is the interior offensive line.

[Cliff]

I don't want them forcing the ball to him if they have other skilled players in single coverage.

Getting wrapped up in making sure a player gets a certain amount of targets within a certain portion of the game isn't the right approach at all. It reminds me of the Randy Ratio and that didn't get us anything.

Not sure why folks equate being creative (and not lazy) in order to get a superstar player involved has to boil down to "forcing" or "ratios". It has nothing to do with either. As I mentioned prior, I had superstar players in the sport I coached and I did everything I could do as a coach to make sure no team "took those players away" for large chunks of games. Trust me, it can be done. And it doesn't involve "forcing" or "making sure" a player touches the ball a certain amount of times. It involved being creative enough to get a superstar the ball. It doesn't involve running the same plays from the same playbook and throwing the ball to a guy who is triple-covered until we hit the number of times we wanted to throw him the ball. It involves ways to make sure it's almost impossible to double or triple team one player.

It's one of my major disappointments with KOC - our playbook and our game plans lack creativity. A lot of times creativity starts with stealing and then modifying things from other teams, from college to the pros. I've seen very little of that from this staff.

Now I do understand the absurdity of stating all the above for a team that is currently 11-2. But if we don't get creative during the regular season, there's no way we can pull it off in the postseason.

Kapp beat me to it and I agree with him. I'm not coming at it from a coach's perspective but I do know there are ways a defense can make throwing to one player significantly more dangerous. To me it seems like the way he gets him open is by taking advantage of the other receiver's opportunities. He is, by far, targeted the most on the team and 5th in the league despite the Vikings being towards the bottom of the league in overall targets.

In the end I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think Jefferson is getting plenty of opportunities, especially considering the other options available.

[psjordan]

Go on YouTube and watch some of the guys who break down the game ... the safety will cheat ever so slightly — often not more than a step, or even just give leverage JJ’s way ...

Not that I know more than the "pro evaluators" by any stretch, but I've done A LOT of film breakdown and I always call bullpucky when I see analysis like this. When you watch film it's extremely easy to say "well this subtle thing happened due to the grand design" - trust me, I've done it myself when evaluating plays on film*. When in reality that was not the cause of the "subtle thing" at all. So yes, we'll have to agree to disagree that any analysis that breaks down to forcing a defender to take a half step or shade in a certain direction - while pro level athletes are all acting and reacting in real time - is patently valid or not.

Now if we come up with a play against cover-2 and draw the safety completely (or 3-4 steps) in the "wrong" direction, yes, that is due to play design, great routes or both.

Bottom line, we have one of the top-5 best coaches in the NFL.

Oh don't get me wrong, I wouldn't trade KOC for many coaches in this league. I just think he (and/or the OC) can be lazy in game planning when and if our superstar is targeted. I know SEA ran a bunch of M-T-M coverages with help over the top that never got there, so things looked good for JJ. But in general I think there are several ways to get him the ball that we are not doing now. A valid argument is that Addison is a great after-the-catch guy so why not use JJ as a "decoy" as long as Addison gets targeted. But I STILL (as a coach) hated conceding my superstar to the opponent.

To me, the only thing keeping the Vikings from scoring 35 a game is the interior offensive line.

There will be zero arguments from anyone on that take, it's something we've been pining for for years.

*So one of the "tricks" of coaching is to reinforce what you want to reinforce when reviewing film with players. It's not out and out lying of course, but it's relatively easy to reinforce the concepts you want to reinforce when doing film study by using stop motion to point out subtleties that you (as coach) know in real-time-speed probably did not cause what you are pointing out. But you want your players to have reinforcement of the concepts you are trying to get across. Not sure that makes sense but I've been known to do it.

[VikingLord]

For the record, I think KOC is a good coach and a leader of men. He's fully invested in the team and those post-game speeches show how everyone around him respects and responds to him.

I can't speak to the merits of the X's and O's and how he and his coaches approach the play calls and game planning per se other than the results, and so far those results have been way beyond my personal expectations. There are probably things that he could personally do better or coach better, and hopefully he's working towards improving those things just as all good leaders do.

In terms of more general observations of the team's play on gamedays, on the offensive side of the ball, I'd like to see fewer throws at or behind the LOS and more attempts downfield per game. Sam's ability to threaten every area of the field is one of his greatest assets. Defensive backs should be worried about that and that worry should make them think twice about crashing forward or sitting on short routes. I also like the QB sneak on 4th-and-1 or less - no need to hand it off to a back or try to throw in that situation.

On the defensive side, maybe play it straight up in the closing minutes of the first half and when up late. Stop rushing 3 and playing zone. The defense gives up points too consistently in those situations and the coaches need to adjust to that, which I think just doing the things that got you ahead makes more sense than playing prevent.

Other than those critiques, I like what they're doing.

[psjordan]

I'd like to see fewer throws at or behind the LOS and more attempts downfield per game. Sam's ability to threaten every area of the field is one of his greatest assets.

So here's an honest question - lots of other teams run the WR "step back" screen pass with pretty good success. I know it's anecdotal, but we cannot seem to run that play with much success at all. In fact if and when I see it unfold, I'm mentally chalking up a two yard loss.

Why, with Darnold's arm strength/ability, and guys like JJ and Addison on the outside, can't we run that play with above average success?

Latest example I watched was Chiefs/XWorthy. They ran that play for 6-12 yards more than once. They ran XWorthy as an RB out of the backfield with success as well - so maybe it's just a matter of different skill sets - with XWorthy being more shifty in tight spaces than JJ or Addison?

[VikingLord]

So here's an honest question - lots of other teams run the WR "step back" screen pass with pretty good success. I know it's anecdotal, but we cannot seem to run that play with much success at all. In fact if and when I see it unfold, I'm mentally chalking up a two yard loss.

Why, with Darnold's arm strength/ability, and guys like JJ and Addison on the outside, can't we run that play with above average success?

Latest example I watched was Chiefs/XWorthy. They ran that play for 6-12 yards more than once. They ran XWorthy as an RB out of the backfield with success as well - so maybe it's just a matter of different skill sets - with XWorthy being more shifty in tight spaces than JJ or Addison?

Great question. It's either personnel or it's a play the defense sees coming when the Vikings run it as compared to other offenses that mask the call better.

Since it doesn't take rocket scientists to run or block on that play, I'd have to attribute it to either the offensive formation tipping it off or the general way defensive players line up against our receivers. Whatever it is, you're right that it rarely seems to work and more often than not the play is blown up for no gain or a slight loss. I personally hate the play in general, as I hate any passing play where the receiver is behind the line of scrimmage when he catches the ball because a play like that can't gain positive yardage at the catch point - it literally can only gain yards if the receiver has time and space to run after the catch.

But to be fair, the Vikings call it because they think it will work, and it does work because other teams run it and do pick up some yardage using it. What really bugs me is when the Vikings don't attempt things downfield. I understand not wanting to throw risky passes into coverage, but it seems to me on balance that if a team has a QB with a strong arm and receivers who can get deep and are strong at the catch point more good things happen on downfield attempts than bad things. There should be 3-5 deep attempts per game from the Vikings offense. JJ, Addison and Nailor all can get over the top. Heck, even TJ and Oliver can do it depending on who matches up on them. In the first half of the first game against the Packers, the Vikings got it downfield several times and were ahead 28-0 at one point. Hopefully KOC keeps up that kind of pressure on them this coming Sunday.