2024 NFL Draft

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VikingsVictorious
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

Post by VikingsVictorious »

CharVike wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:36 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:53 pm
My best guess is "our guy" is Caleb Williams. Do you want us to do whatever it takes to get him? I'm sure we have QBs ranked from 1 to 10. I'm guessing the grades from 2-6 range from A- to B+. Is getting our A-QB worth giving our opponent several first round picks. Not IMO. It is also possible our A- QB will be available at 11 anyway and if we trade up we missed that Golden opportunity. Pick 11 is taking a very big swing at the QB position. I have no fear of moving up. I have the courage to stick and pick. :govikes:
That's not a guess it's a given. He's been the top ranked guy for 2 seasons. But I do know Caleb was running his mouth saying I will only play for these teams. Talking about money. That has stopped because his agent and advisors told him to cool it or you will cost yourself some spots in the draft. That means we all lose money. Maye has been No 2 for 2 seasons. His 3rd year was a drop from his 2nd but he didn't fall off the table. Jayden is the wild card. He went from a day 3 pick all the way up to 2 or 3 and some say 1. His stats year 5 are through the roof. He can do everything at the highest level. He's Lamar. But Jayden is a skinny player. Lamar is thick. That's a huge advantage for Lamar and his style of play. The question for Jayden is what happen those other 4 seasons and what skeme does he fit. The rest are far below these 3. Basically round 2 on down. We don't have a 2nd or a 3rd so we will need to reach at 11 or 23. If we can't move up wait till round 4. Or trade down from 11 to get a 2nd and late 1st. Then make a pick in the 2nd. Kwesi did say the additional 1st rounder didn't mean a trade up. What is he going to say? He also said there are several guys they love. Weird way of saying it but he had to say something.
I believe you couldn't be more wrong about McCarthy, Nix and Penix. I've studied hours of tape with great evaluators like Simms, Warner and Benkert. Any of those three are well worth pick 11. You heard lots of hype about Maye, but I've seen eval after eval that Nix, Penix and McCarthy are all better than Maye. I'm not saying Maye sucks, but I think he belongs in that B+ grade with Penix and Nix and I know you hate McCarthy, but I'd give him an A- with Daniels.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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cmoss84 wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:42 am I still get the feeling we trade jj to chargers at #5. Then, if needed, trade up from there. Makes too much sense for both teams.
JJ is too much for pick 5. We need their 2nd this year in the deal as well at the very least.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

Post by cmoss84 »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:50 am
cmoss84 wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:42 am I still get the feeling we trade jj to chargers at #5. Then, if needed, trade up from there. Makes too much sense for both teams.
JJ is too much for pick 5. We need their 2nd this year in the deal as well at the very least.
True. Left that part out. We get #5+ picks. Might even be #5 and 1st rd next year.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:46 am
CharVike wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:36 pm
That's not a guess it's a given. He's been the top ranked guy for 2 seasons. But I do know Caleb was running his mouth saying I will only play for these teams. Talking about money. That has stopped because his agent and advisors told him to cool it or you will cost yourself some spots in the draft. That means we all lose money. Maye has been No 2 for 2 seasons. His 3rd year was a drop from his 2nd but he didn't fall off the table. Jayden is the wild card. He went from a day 3 pick all the way up to 2 or 3 and some say 1. His stats year 5 are through the roof. He can do everything at the highest level. He's Lamar. But Jayden is a skinny player. Lamar is thick. That's a huge advantage for Lamar and his style of play. The question for Jayden is what happen those other 4 seasons and what skeme does he fit. The rest are far below these 3. Basically round 2 on down. We don't have a 2nd or a 3rd so we will need to reach at 11 or 23. If we can't move up wait till round 4. Or trade down from 11 to get a 2nd and late 1st. Then make a pick in the 2nd. Kwesi did say the additional 1st rounder didn't mean a trade up. What is he going to say? He also said there are several guys they love. Weird way of saying it but he had to say something.
I believe you couldn't be more wrong about McCarthy, Nix and Penix. I've studied hours of tape with great evaluators like Simms, Warner and Benkert. Any of those three are well worth pick 11. You heard lots of hype about Maye, but I've seen eval after eval that Nix, Penix and McCarthy are all better than Maye. I'm not saying Maye sucks, but I think he belongs in that B+ grade with Penix and Nix and I know you hate McCarthy, but I'd give him an A- with Daniels.
More than likely I am wrong. I don't hate JJM it's Penix that I wouldn't draft. Maye has been compared to Trubisky by some. Mainly because of school which makes it easy. Maye said he's a different person and different player. I agree with him. We'll see soon enough. I just hope Kwesi doesn't pick the next Cine from this QB class. That could be what Maye is. But Maye requires a trade up not down. Draft's are more fun when it's just about a position player besides QB. This is a make or break for the next 5 years. I wonder who gets kicked off the roster once this pick is done. Darnold is safe and last years pick probably has the edge over dead duck thrower Mullens. That last one he threw to a Lions defender sealed his fate. Even JJ had a hard time not laughing. He just stared at the turf.
Last edited by CharVike on Sat Apr 13, 2024 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:53 pm
Dakotavike wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 2:08 pm

If only life were that simple. And that's exactly the mindset I don't get. Do you really think KAM and KOC have these guys all ranked the same? OF COURSE NOT!!! Otherwise sure, just take whoever falls to us. But we all know that one of these QB's is the one they want above all others. If the guy KOC really wants is Penix or Nix, then yeah, of course we can probably wait til 11. That would be great! Get our guy and keep both 1st rounders. I'm ecstatic with that!!! But my point is that if KOC's preferred target is Maye or JJ and we have to move up to 3 or 4 to get him then just do it. We don't get this opportunity very often so take a swing and go get your guy. We can't be so dang afraid to move up if need be!!!
My best guess is "our guy" is Caleb Williams. Do you want us to do whatever it takes to get him? I'm sure we have QBs ranked from 1 to 10. I'm guessing the grades from 2-6 range from A- to B+. Is getting our A-QB worth giving our opponent several first round picks. Not IMO. It is also possible our A- QB will be available at 11 anyway and if we trade up we missed that Golden opportunity. Pick 11 is taking a very big swing at the QB position. I have no fear of moving up. I have the courage to stick and pick. :govikes:
No, I'm not saying do whatever it takes to get Caleb. That's why I originally said move up "if need be" and "within reason". I don't think we can OR SHOULD go any higher than pick 4 or 5 (possibly 3 depending on cost). And I do agree with you that they may Caleb in his own tier, Daniels in his own tier, and then Maye, JJ, Penix, and Nix all in one big tier. If that's the case then of course they should stand pat. I guess I'm just saying that if Maye or JJ is their #1 realistic target and that person falls to say pick 4 they NEED to go up and get him. Don't sit back and hope he falls to you. My fear is this scenario arises and KAM plays moneyball and either the Giants, Broncos, or Raiders jump us and get him. Then we're left picking the best of who's left but it's not who we really wanted. All that being said, I know we never really know which of these guys will pan out. And honestly, this is all a mute point because no matter who they pick they'll tell the media in the post draft presser that they got the guy they wanted all along so we'll never really know! :lol:
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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Dakotavike wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:51 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:53 pm
My best guess is "our guy" is Caleb Williams. Do you want us to do whatever it takes to get him? I'm sure we have QBs ranked from 1 to 10. I'm guessing the grades from 2-6 range from A- to B+. Is getting our A-QB worth giving our opponent several first round picks. Not IMO. It is also possible our A- QB will be available at 11 anyway and if we trade up we missed that Golden opportunity. Pick 11 is taking a very big swing at the QB position. I have no fear of moving up. I have the courage to stick and pick. :govikes:
No, I'm not saying do whatever it takes to get Caleb. That's why I originally said move up "if need be" and "within reason". I don't think we can OR SHOULD go any higher than pick 4 or 5 (possibly 3 depending on cost). And I do agree with you that they may Caleb in his own tier, Daniels in his own tier, and then Maye, JJ, Penix, and Nix all in one big tier. If that's the case then of course they should stand pat. I guess I'm just saying that if Maye or JJ is their #1 realistic target and that person falls to say pick 4 they NEED to go up and get him. Don't sit back and hope he falls to you. My fear is this scenario arises and KAM plays moneyball and either the Giants, Broncos, or Raiders jump us and get him. Then we're left picking the best of who's left but it's not who we really wanted. All that being said, I know we never really know which of these guys will pan out. And honestly, this is all a mute point because no matter who they pick they'll tell the media in the post draft presser that they got the guy they wanted all along so we'll never really know! :lol:
Fact.
One more thing. The term is moot point not mute.
Put simply, a moot point is a point or claim that doesn't matter. A fuller definition? A moot point is a fact that does not apply to the current situation. The fact may not apply for any number of reasons. For instance, the information could be doubtful, no longer current, or of no practical value.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:53 pm
My best guess is "our guy" is Caleb Williams. Do you want us to do whatever it takes to get him? I'm sure we have QBs ranked from 1 to 10. I'm guessing the grades from 2-6 range from A- to B+. Is getting our A-QB worth giving our opponent several first round picks. Not IMO. It is also possible our A- QB will be available at 11 anyway and if we trade up we missed that Golden opportunity. Pick 11 is taking a very big swing at the QB position. I have no fear of moving up. I have the courage to stick and pick. :govikes:
That's the Bears guy, and there is zero chance they trade the pick that would be needed to draft him. He's seen as the second coming of Mahomes, that pick isn't available.

I'm generally not a fan of trading a bunch of picks to move up to draft a qb. Too many failures. There are plenty of examples of very high first round qb picks flaming out. Both qb's where someone traded a bunch of picks to get (Trubisky, Trey Lance), or just drafted high and they didn't work out (that list is very large). Not opposed to drafting guys with high picks, just not piling in there with extra picks.

My completely uninformed guess is the VIkings have their eye on someone, if he falls out of the top 3 they will try to work a trade to get him, if not they'll just stay put. I think beyond Williams there is some question about which qbs will be the next 2 to be drafted. Some people feel Drake Maye could fall, if that happens that would put another qb in the top 3, maybe the Vikings guy will get snatched up, maybe that's McCarthy? I think it's going to be very interesting to see how the first 12 or 13 picks of the draft play out, probably one of the more interesting drafts we've had in the last few years.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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cogitator wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 12:05 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:53 pm
My best guess is "our guy" is Caleb Williams. Do you want us to do whatever it takes to get him? I'm sure we have QBs ranked from 1 to 10. I'm guessing the grades from 2-6 range from A- to B+. Is getting our A-QB worth giving our opponent several first round picks. Not IMO. It is also possible our A- QB will be available at 11 anyway and if we trade up we missed that Golden opportunity. Pick 11 is taking a very big swing at the QB position. I have no fear of moving up. I have the courage to stick and pick. :govikes:
That's the Bears guy, and there is zero chance they trade the pick that would be needed to draft him. He's seen as the second coming of Mahomes, that pick isn't available.

I'm generally not a fan of trading a bunch of picks to move up to draft a qb. Too many failures. There are plenty of examples of very high first round qb picks flaming out. Both qb's where someone traded a bunch of picks to get (Trubisky, Trey Lance), or just drafted high and they didn't work out (that list is very large). Not opposed to drafting guys with high picks, just not piling in there with extra picks.

My completely uninformed guess is the VIkings have their eye on someone, if he falls out of the top 3 they will try to work a trade to get him, if not they'll just stay put. I think beyond Williams there is some question about which qbs will be the next 2 to be drafted. Some people feel Drake Maye could fall, if that happens that would put another qb in the top 3, maybe the Vikings guy will get snatched up, maybe that's McCarthy? I think it's going to be very interesting to see how the first 12 or 13 picks of the draft play out, probably one of the more interesting drafts we've had in the last few years.
Everybody believes that Williams will be drafted by the Bears, but in the Vikings evaluation of the QBs he could be the one the Vikings wanted most. We need to have the QBs ranked and either trade up for a guy we don't think will be there at 11 or pick the best guy at 11. I think we could easily end up with the best QB in this draft picking him at 11.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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The contrast between the media evaluation of players, which is known to us, and the team's internal evaluations, which are not known to us, drive most of the passionate opinions come draft day.

A GM can make all the right decisions and the outcome still be terrible. This is because so much depends on the evaluation, which can break down at any number of points, or in communication between those points.

Unless a GM is being driven by public perception and the external, media evaluation of the players, every organiation is going to stack players in tiers, factor in team needs, salary cap commitments at various positions, and make decisions based on these factors. So far it doesn't appear the Vikings are doing a great job under Kwesi in this evaluation process. Hopefully they can improve.

-----------------

Remember the first year that Mike Mayock was GM for the Raiders? He selected a Defensive Lineman from Clemson early who was way outside the media consensus top tier. Daniel Jeremiah had him nowhere near this early first round pick. But, if Mike Mayock had spent another year working for NFL network, this DE from Clemson would have been scrolling across the bottom of the screen for months as one of the best DEs in the draft class. People would have been amazed if he had slid all the way to 30. 'What value'. This is worth keeping in mind.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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fiestavike wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2024 8:37 am The contrast between the media evaluation of players, which is known to us, and the team's internal evaluations, which are not known to us, drive most of the passionate opinions come draft day.

A GM can make all the right decisions and the outcome still be terrible. This is because so much depends on the evaluation, which can break down at any number of points, or in communication between those points.

Unless a GM is being driven by public perception and the external, media evaluation of the players, every organiation is going to stack players in tiers, factor in team needs, salary cap commitments at various positions, and make decisions based on these factors. So far it doesn't appear the Vikings are doing a great job under Kwesi in this evaluation process. Hopefully they can improve.

-----------------

Remember the first year that Mike Mayock was GM for the Raiders? He selected a Defensive Lineman from Clemson early who was way outside the media consensus top tier. Daniel Jeremiah had him nowhere near this early first round pick. But, if Mike Mayock had spent another year working for NFL network, this DE from Clemson would have been scrolling across the bottom of the screen for months as one of the best DEs in the draft class. People would have been amazed if he had slid all the way to 30. 'What value'. This is worth keeping in mind.
I tend to agree with the point you are making with this post. Not so sure I agree that Kwesi is doing poorly in the evaluation's process though. Are you basing that off of draft misses up to this point? Or that in combination with something else? I would love to see some analytics comparing GM’s overall drafting success with some clearly defined metrics as to what is considered a success. I think it is far too early in Kwesi’s time as GM to determine if his process is solid or not. Just another perspective is all. Not trying to say I am right. Just something to consider
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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PFF mock draft has us taking 2 QBs and realistically why not? Maye drops to 9 and we take him after a trade with the Bears. Then we take Penix early in the 2nd pick 34. We trade pick 23 to get into 2nd and 3rd round. A comment was... make it the Nix draft. Penix and Nix. That would put some energy into the draft. Flip flop the 2 Nix's through out the game. Be like Staubach and Morton. Or play the Nix that fits the situation. Use dump off Nix for some spots and bomber Nix for others. Or play them both at the same time. Nix it up. Go Milton in the 5th. He can challenge Hall for the practice squad spot. Put them both there. People get hurt.
Last edited by CharVike on Mon Apr 15, 2024 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2024 11:40 am PFF mock draft has us taking 2 QBs and realistically why not? Maye drops to 9 and we take him after a trade with the Bears. Then we take Penix early in the 2nd pick 34. We trade pick 23 to get into 2nd and 3rd round. A comment was... make it the Nix draft. Penix and Nix. That would put some energy into the draft. Flip flop the 2 Nix's through out the game. Be like Staubach and Morton. Or play the Nix that fits the situation. Use dump off Nix for some spots and bomber Nix for others. Or play them both at the same time. Nix it up. Go Milton in the 5th. He can challenge Hall for the practice squad spot. Put them both there. People get hurt.
Hmmm interesting take. This basically comes down to how many guys the Vikings think have it. I like the idea of trading up and grabbing Milton or Rattler late kind of like the RG3 Kirk Situation in Washington.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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allday1991 wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2024 11:45 am
CharVike wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2024 11:40 am PFF mock draft has us taking 2 QBs and realistically why not? Maye drops to 9 and we take him after a trade with the Bears. Then we take Penix early in the 2nd pick 34. We trade pick 23 to get into 2nd and 3rd round. A comment was... make it the Nix draft. Penix and Nix. That would put some energy into the draft. Flip flop the 2 Nix's through out the game. Be like Staubach and Morton. Or play the Nix that fits the situation. Use dump off Nix for some spots and bomber Nix for others. Or play them both at the same time. Nix it up. Go Milton in the 5th. He can challenge Hall for the practice squad spot. Put them both there. People get hurt.
Hmmm interesting take. This basically comes down to how many guys the Vikings think have it. I like the idea of trading up and grabbing Milton or Rattler late kind of like the RG3 Kirk Situation in Washington.
Kwesi said they love many of them. Then pick many. Nothing to lose. They are all about the same anyway. Probably come down to mental side. Who knows how that is determined. Even if they graduated it's not like they ever stepped into a class room. That was part of the recruitment deal.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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Dakotavike wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:11 pm I guess my whole argument is on the assumption that KOC and McCown (not KAM) are good at evaluating QB's and have a guy they think fits their system with flaws they deem fixable. This is the first time KOC (a supposed QB whisperer) has been able to hand pick his QB and I just want KAM to do that for him. Maybe it will work out, maybe it won't. But in my opinion KAM needs to give him the opportunity.
That's very valid, but from where I sit I see *systemic* failure on the part of KAM and KOC when it comes to the QB position in addition to specific failure in terms of ability to evaluate talent. Since KAM/KOC took over they just popped another 2 years on to Cousins deal and then did pretty much nothing to prep for a future without him. It's almost like they assumed they could just keep adding on short term to keep Cousins around while kicking the replacement can down the road, only Cousins apparently no longer was interested in the shorter term deals he seemed to prefer when he was a younger man with more road in front of him. I don't know if that caught the guys at the wheel by surprise or what, but the situation they find themselves in right now is not one that lends itself to thoughtful deliberation. It's now more forced and much more urgent and those two factors tend to lead to poor decision-making.

I don't know that people who display such short-sighted thinking deserve our deference to their evaluation skills even if one of them was a former pro QB. They made what in hindsight were very dangerous assumptions about what Cousins would do going forward and that is likely to cost them in the draft this year.

Which is why it will be so interesting to me to watch how KAM handles this. He's in a bad spot. He needs a fix. The question of the moment is, does he truly have the vision and capability to resist the temptation to make that a quick fix and a big guess at that fix?

Everyone and their uncle have the Vikings throwing the hail mary to move up from between 3-7 to snag Mr. Next Best, whomever that turns out to be. Most seem to believe it will be McCarthy, but there is a healthy range on who that particular QB is. And while it is possible that KAM and/or KOC are capable of identifying Mr. Next Best correctly, I put the odds on them NOT being able to do that at around 90% given what we've seen them do to this point both systemically and in prior drafts at other positions.

So here's hoping I'm wrong on both accounts, because another miss at QB this year is going to be very costly if they go all-in.
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Re: 2024 NFL Draft

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VikingLord wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2024 1:27 pm
Dakotavike wrote: Fri Apr 12, 2024 3:11 pm I guess my whole argument is on the assumption that KOC and McCown (not KAM) are good at evaluating QB's and have a guy they think fits their system with flaws they deem fixable. This is the first time KOC (a supposed QB whisperer) has been able to hand pick his QB and I just want KAM to do that for him. Maybe it will work out, maybe it won't. But in my opinion KAM needs to give him the opportunity.
That's very valid, but from where I sit I see *systemic* failure on the part of KAM and KOC when it comes to the QB position in addition to specific failure in terms of ability to evaluate talent. Since KAM/KOC took over they just popped another 2 years on to Cousins deal and then did pretty much nothing to prep for a future without him. It's almost like they assumed they could just keep adding on short term to keep Cousins around while kicking the replacement can down the road, only Cousins apparently no longer was interested in the shorter term deals he seemed to prefer when he was a younger man with more road in front of him. I don't know if that caught the guys at the wheel by surprise or what, but the situation they find themselves in right now is not one that lends itself to thoughtful deliberation. It's now more forced and much more urgent and those two factors tend to lead to poor decision-making.

I don't know that people who display such short-sighted thinking deserve our deference to their evaluation skills even if one of them was a former pro QB. They made what in hindsight were very dangerous assumptions about what Cousins would do going forward and that is likely to cost them in the draft this year.

Which is why it will be so interesting to me to watch how KAM handles this. He's in a bad spot. He needs a fix. The question of the moment is, does he truly have the vision and capability to resist the temptation to make that a quick fix and a big guess at that fix?

Everyone and their uncle have the Vikings throwing the hail mary to move up from between 3-7 to snag Mr. Next Best, whomever that turns out to be. Most seem to believe it will be McCarthy, but there is a healthy range on who that particular QB is. And while it is possible that KAM and/or KOC are capable of identifying Mr. Next Best correctly, I put the odds on them NOT being able to do that at around 90% given what we've seen them do to this point both systemically and in prior drafts at other positions.

So here's hoping I'm wrong on both accounts, because another miss at QB this year is going to be very costly if they go all-in.
I think you've got those odds about right. That's a big reason why I don't want them to go all in.