Off-season Prediction Thread

[CharVike]

We need to get this OL to a top flight level as Detroit has done. The Pack have done that also but not to the Lions level. That will improve us more than a rookie QB who more than likely will struggle for several seasons and then be a bust or flame out. I've seen that enough in my lifetime.

Thanks for the link to the source. I think there is a difference between a truly weak arm and an average arm, but let's face it, the arm is just the gun - if a guy can't aim or time shots, the gun he's firing with won't compensate for that. A good arm on a good QB is worth it's weight in gold, but an average arm on a good QB is good too. If a QB can't process the field post-snap, can't see guys coming open or can't time his throws when guys do come open, it really doesn't matter much if he can throw it fast and hard.

I like what you wrote about focusing on the interior OL, and I do think this is a good draft to do that. The value at OL will be there in the 2nd-3rd rounds (assuming KAM gets back into the 3rd somehow). The Vikings could pick up a quality center and should be looking for a RG to replace Ingram.

In the 1st, the value that will likely be on the board at 11 will be at DE and CB. If KAM stays there, and barring an unforeseen slide by one of the top QBs, he's going to get a shot at a difference-maker at those positions.

Arm strength is only part of the deal. In the end players can be find in every round. Of course the depth is depleted as you move through. I'm just tired of reading about one position/player. It's not even entertaining anymore watching some youtube post that I would check out frequently. This should be a bigger concern about Brian O'Neill
O'Neill, a 2021 Pro Bowler who is among the game's highest-paid and highest-graded right tackles, missed the final two games of the 2022 regular season and the Vikings' first-round playoff loss with an Achilles injury. He had been playing at his usual high level this season before struggling against the Bears a couple weeks ago and struggling against Crosby in this first half.
Nobody even mentions O'Neil. This could be a big problem. Is he losing it? Crosby is a dam good player but supposedly O'Neil is also. If both are true it should be a stalemate. Crosby kicked his a$$. You can't let that happen. Kick his a$$ since your paid like the best in the game. Big money and so so play is never mentioned for this guy. Or even Bradberry who had zero interest during FA. Teams weren't begging for him and offering tons of money. The Eagles need a center get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him. That will never happen but he's paid very well. That's enough #### from me.

[VikingsVictorious]

I took some time to let the season settle. I've heard rumors that Kirk is seeking 2 years 90 million fully guaranteed. I don't blame him for seeking that, but coming off injury at his age he won't get it. The Vikings need to hold the line at maximum 2 years 70 million. If that doesn't work out let's get one of the top 3 QBs from this draft class. That would probably include trading Jefferson away.

Does it really matter what any player gets? I've read many times you can't field a team if you have a highly paid QB. The Chiefs do it. Mahomes gets all the credit and yes he is the best but I wouldn't overlook that defense. They played great in the playoffs and the season. Allowing 7, 10 and holding Allen down. That's top notch playoff D. That takes players and coaching. The Ravens field a strong team across the board. Their D is really good. Held Mahomes down but couldn't win. They also did it. We have never played playoff D like that. Players all recover differently. Davenport couldn't recover this season with a high ankle sprain. That should be 4-6 weeks. If Caleb is as good as many think the Bears will make that pick and should be on a Super Bowl run for at least a decade. Purdy did it year 2 so year 1 should be no problem for this guy. He's the best ever with every skill compared to a 7th rounder with very limited skills. When I saw Purdy play against us I didn't sit there and say this is the best I've ever seen. He tossed up a dead duck down the middle of the field for the game ending interception. Threw it right to our guy. He had other games when he looked like crap. His fans were calling for his head. I read it. They are all backing down now. Too late you jumped off. If I was Kirk I'd go to Atlanta. They will pay him and their core team is much better than ours. But I'm not him.

I don't expect Caleb or any other QB drafted this year to be good. I almost never expect a rookie QB to be good. I think the only 2 rookie QBs I've expected to be good for the last 25 years are Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow. A few qbs drafted in the last 25 years have been good, but not many. So I'm right far more often than I'm wrong when I don't expect qbs drafted to be good.

[VikingsVictorious]

Some QB scouting reports from the Sr. Bowl. Underwhelming to say the least.

Arif Hasan:

Senior Bowl Standouts the Vikings Should Keep An Eye On

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback situation in Mobile was much better than we’ve been used to in recent years, but it’s still pretty bleak. Two quarterbacks – Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix – needed to make their case as potential first-round prospects, and there was buzz that Nix might accomplish that task this week.

He did not. Had Nix been inconsistent, it would have been a blessing. Instead, he was consistently off-target, often throwing sideline passes out of bounds and in-breaking routes behind the receiver. His control over ball velocity was minimal, and there were moments we saw short underneath routes with too much mustard and deeper throws without enough air.

It’s been a very disappointing couple of days for him. While his film looks like a Day 2 prospect to me, his performance in these isolated practices – devoid of context or preparation, in all fairness – looks more like a Day 3 prospect with tremendous upside.

Penix hasn’t been disappointing, but he also hasn’t been outstanding. The arm strength he’s been known for hasn’t really revealed itself in astounding fashion, and he has been overshadowed by the howitzer Joe Milton III is carrying around. That’s not a bad thing for Penix, who is showing more touch and anticipation than any other big-name quarterback prospect, but he’s not making unique or interesting plays in a way that screams board movement.

But the guy with the rocket arm, Milton, has been more of an issue than Nix, who at least is making completions. Milton is regularly creating interceptions, firing lasers to receivers before the route concept develops and forcing drops or incompletions with his play. He improved on Day 2, but Milton clearly needs development. The issue is that Milton has had six years of college football to develop. It just may not be there.

Spencer Rattler threw perhaps the worst interception of any quarterback on Day 1, but he still may have had the most consistent performance. Rattler regularly demonstrated touch and accuracy with command of the simplified offense the Senior Bowl crafts for its prospects. Rattler wasn’t the “best” quarterback on either day. Day 1 probably goes to Penix, whose anticipation could trick you into thinking he had chemistry with receivers he never played with. But Rattler certainly seemed better than the way he’s been talked about as a draft prospect.

Carter Bradley is the most interesting player to me. The local quarterback from the University of South Alabama happens to be Gus Bradley’s son. He wasn’t anything special on Day 1 but was honestly outstanding on Day 2. He showcased great anticipation, good arm strength, and fantastic accuracy on some very tough throws.

https://zonecoverage.com/2024/minnesota ... -eye-on-2/

[CharVike]

Does it really matter what any player gets? I've read many times you can't field a team if you have a highly paid QB. The Chiefs do it. Mahomes gets all the credit and yes he is the best but I wouldn't overlook that defense. They played great in the playoffs and the season. Allowing 7, 10 and holding Allen down. That's top notch playoff D. That takes players and coaching. The Ravens field a strong team across the board. Their D is really good. Held Mahomes down but couldn't win. They also did it. We have never played playoff D like that. Players all recover differently. Davenport couldn't recover this season with a high ankle sprain. That should be 4-6 weeks. If Caleb is as good as many think the Bears will make that pick and should be on a Super Bowl run for at least a decade. Purdy did it year 2 so year 1 should be no problem for this guy. He's the best ever with every skill compared to a 7th rounder with very limited skills. When I saw Purdy play against us I didn't sit there and say this is the best I've ever seen. He tossed up a dead duck down the middle of the field for the game ending interception. Threw it right to our guy. He had other games when he looked like crap. His fans were calling for his head. I read it. They are all backing down now. Too late you jumped off. If I was Kirk I'd go to Atlanta. They will pay him and their core team is much better than ours. But I'm not him.

I don't expect Caleb or any other QB drafted this year to be good. I almost never expect a rookie QB to be good. I think the only 2 rookie QBs I've expected to be good for the last 25 years are Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow. A few qbs drafted in the last 25 years have been good, but not many. So I'm right far more often than I'm wrong when I don't expect qbs drafted to be good.

The team a QB goes to also has an impact. Purdy hit the perfect spot for his skill set. They had Lance who couldn't do much and was picked No 3 I think. The pro scouts spend a ton of time scouting QBs and they miss over and over. Cousins and Prescott were both 4th rounders. Both have had very good careers. Hurts took the Eagles to the SB and was a 2nd round pick. Look how Wentz flamed out. I didn't read anything about Purdy pre draft. It was like he didn't exist. That was more luck than anything.

[CharVike]

Some QB scouting reports from the Sr. Bowl. Underwhelming to say the least.

Arif Hasan:

Senior Bowl Standouts the Vikings Should Keep An Eye On

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback situation in Mobile was much better than we’ve been used to in recent years, but it’s still pretty bleak. Two quarterbacks – Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix – needed to make their case as potential first-round prospects, and there was buzz that Nix might accomplish that task this week.

He did not. Had Nix been inconsistent, it would have been a blessing. Instead, he was consistently off-target, often throwing sideline passes out of bounds and in-breaking routes behind the receiver. His control over ball velocity was minimal, and there were moments we saw short underneath routes with too much mustard and deeper throws without enough air.

It’s been a very disappointing couple of days for him. While his film looks like a Day 2 prospect to me, his performance in these isolated practices – devoid of context or preparation, in all fairness – looks more like a Day 3 prospect with tremendous upside.

Penix hasn’t been disappointing, but he also hasn’t been outstanding. The arm strength he’s been known for hasn’t really revealed itself in astounding fashion, and he has been overshadowed by the howitzer Joe Milton III is carrying around. That’s not a bad thing for Penix, who is showing more touch and anticipation than any other big-name quarterback prospect, but he’s not making unique or interesting plays in a way that screams board movement.

But the guy with the rocket arm, Milton, has been more of an issue than Nix, who at least is making completions. Milton is regularly creating interceptions, firing lasers to receivers before the route concept develops and forcing drops or incompletions with his play. He improved on Day 2, but Milton clearly needs development. The issue is that Milton has had six years of college football to develop. It just may not be there.

Spencer Rattler threw perhaps the worst interception of any quarterback on Day 1, but he still may have had the most consistent performance. Rattler regularly demonstrated touch and accuracy with command of the simplified offense the Senior Bowl crafts for its prospects. Rattler wasn’t the “best” quarterback on either day. Day 1 probably goes to Penix, whose anticipation could trick you into thinking he had chemistry with receivers he never played with. But Rattler certainly seemed better than the way he’s been talked about as a draft prospect.

Carter Bradley is the most interesting player to me. The local quarterback from the University of South Alabama happens to be Gus Bradley’s son. He wasn’t anything special on Day 1 but was honestly outstanding on Day 2. He showcased great anticipation, good arm strength, and fantastic accuracy on some very tough throws.

https://zonecoverage.com/2024/minnesota ... -eye-on-2/

Bradley has nice size. Accuracy is a must have. Found this below.
The South Alabama QB has a great arm and can drive velocity to all levels of the field. He stays on schedule in the short and intermediate ranges, and can heft throws past deep coverage when shot opportunities arise. Bradley's lack of creation ability may max out his ceiling as a quality backup or spot starter.
I'm not sure what creation ability is. Perhaps it's create something out of nothing. Good luck with that. Making the plays that are there certainly works. Most can't do that. Good read and perhaps he's our guy.

[CharVike]

Here is a lighter funny one on Nick Mullens. I give the guy credit at least our team moved with him but the interceptions were very bad. Anyway I know every Viking fan hates him just like many hate Cousins but the guy was close to Luck in his first 17 starts as shown below.

Mullens has passed for 4,552 yards with 24 touchdowns and 21 interceptions while completing 381 of 594 attempts (64.1%) in 17 starts. Luck's first 17 starts produced 4,552 yards for 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions on a 54.9% completion rate.Dec 12, 2023

Maybe he's our future bridge. At least he knows the offense. All these bridge guys are in that position for a reason. Another of my favorites who sucked Drew Lock is a FA. He showed a little with Seattle. He's only 25 and can throw the ball well. Maybe he can be our own magic story.

[J. Kapp 11]

Here’s a question that Matthew Coller posed on his Purple insider podcast.

Would you trade the 11th pick in 2024, the 2025 first-round pick, and Christian Darrisaw … to the New England Patriots for the third pick in the 2024 draft?

At that point, you’re going to be able to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

Pros:
1. You get your quarterback.
2. You save big money via not paying the Darrisaw extension.
3. A serviceable left tackle is probably good enough if you have a quarterback who can escape and run like Daniels.
4. Tons of money to build the rest of the roster.
5. You only give up one future first-rounder instead of two.
6. If your QB turns into a stud, you’re set for 5 years cap-wise.

Cons:
1. You lose one of the top 5 left tackles in the game.
2. No guarantee that one of those QBs turns into your franchise guy.
3. You lose a future first-round pick.

What say you guys? Yes or no? Other pros and cons?

[VikingLord]

The quarterback situation in Mobile was much better than we’ve been used to in recent years, but it’s still pretty bleak.

That's an interesting comment. I can read that as the QBs participating in the Senior Bowl practices were more hyped coming into the week or the play by the QBs that attended was generally higher quality. Given that none of the 1st-tier prospects were there and the rest of the summary posted it was the former rather than the latter.

Carter Bradley is the most interesting player to me. The local quarterback from the University of South Alabama happens to be Gus Bradley’s son. He wasn’t anything special on Day 1 but was honestly outstanding on Day 2. He showcased great anticipation, good arm strength, and fantastic accuracy on some very tough throws.

This is the summary of Carter Bradley at Walterfootball:

In 2023, he completed 68 percent of his passes for 2,660 yards, 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He completed 65 percent of his throws in 2022 for 3,336 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Bradley could rise with a strong week in Mobile.

They have him rated as their #15 prospect and I find that summary of him to be incredibly brief given the volumes devoted to other QB prospects at that site.

His TD-INT ratios aren't great during his college career and the summary doesn't break out his running TDs, so it's hard to tell how mobile he might be or what threat he poses as a runner if a play breaks down. Even the summary you posted suggests he wasn't very consistent (nothing special on Day One but outstanding on Day Two). Even Nick Foles put together a few great performances, and Case Keenum had himself about 3/4ths of a season of pretty good play before reverting to the mean of his career, so I'd be hard pressed to get excited about Bradley based on this.

I'm also like you that I'm not really excited about any of the QB prospects in this year's draft. Jayden Daniels shows the most promise of the bunch IMHO, but he will be off the board no later than #6 and likely by #3.

[VikingLord]

Here’s a question that Matthew Coller posed on his Purple insider podcast.

Would you trade the 11th pick in 2024, the 2025 first-round pick, and Christian Darrisaw … to the New England Patriots for the third pick in the 2024 draft?

At that point, you’re going to be able to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

Pros:
1. You get your quarterback.
2. You save big money via not paying the Darrisaw extension.
3. A serviceable left tackle is probably good enough if you have a quarterback who can escape and run like Daniels.
4. Tons of money to build the rest of the roster.
5. You only give up one future first-rounder instead of two.
6. If your QB turns into a stud, you’re set for 5 years cap-wise.

Cons:
1. You lose one of the top 5 left tackles in the game.
2. No guarantee that one of those QBs turns into your franchise guy.
3. You lose a future first-round pick.

What say you guys? Yes or no? Other pros and cons?

If they bring Cousins back, no, I wouldn't do it.

If they don't bring Cousins back I might depending on which QB is still on the board at #3. If Daniels, yes, if Mayes or Williams, no.

One other potential con of this would be the talent at DE and CB likely to still be on the board at #11 is really good this year. There could be 3 impact starters at DE/OLB there and 2-3 impact CBs, both positions of real need on the defensive side of the ball. So if KAM/KOC did move up to get a QB, they'd better be sold on that QB as a franchise player at the position.

[VikingsVictorious]

Here’s a question that Matthew Coller posed on his Purple insider podcast.

Would you trade the 11th pick in 2024, the 2025 first-round pick, and Christian Darrisaw … to the New England Patriots for the third pick in the 2024 draft?

At that point, you’re going to be able to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

Pros:
1. You get your quarterback.
2. You save big money via not paying the Darrisaw extension.
3. A serviceable left tackle is probably good enough if you have a quarterback who can escape and run like Daniels.
4. Tons of money to build the rest of the roster.
5. You only give up one future first-rounder instead of two.
6. If your QB turns into a stud, you’re set for 5 years cap-wise.

Cons:
1. You lose one of the top 5 left tackles in the game.
2. No guarantee that one of those QBs turns into your franchise guy.
3. You lose a future first-round pick.

What say you guys? Yes or no? Other pros and cons?

I'll give 3 answers.
1 No
2 No Way
3 No Way in Hell.

[CharVike]

Here’s a question that Matthew Coller posed on his Purple insider podcast.

Would you trade the 11th pick in 2024, the 2025 first-round pick, and Christian Darrisaw … to the New England Patriots for the third pick in the 2024 draft?

At that point, you’re going to be able to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

Pros:
1. You get your quarterback.
2. You save big money via not paying the Darrisaw extension.
3. A serviceable left tackle is probably good enough if you have a quarterback who can escape and run like Daniels.
4. Tons of money to build the rest of the roster.
5. You only give up one future first-rounder instead of two.
6. If your QB turns into a stud, you’re set for 5 years cap-wise.

Cons:
1. You lose one of the top 5 left tackles in the game.
2. No guarantee that one of those QBs turns into your franchise guy.
3. You lose a future first-round pick.

What say you guys? Yes or no? Other pros and cons?

No. Giving away Darrisaw can't happen. He's a building block. Teams win with high dollar QBs. Just flip through every playoff team. It wasn't a bunch of rookie deal QBs. Yes Purdy. He could be called better than Mahomes. He made the champ game year 1 and SB year 2. One of if not the best picks in the history of the NFL. But that team has a talented group along with the best LT in the game. Some think if a QB can move you don't need an OL. Mahomes can move but Reid always has one of the best OLs. Dobbs is one of the best movers I have seen. Sacked 4 times in the 1st half against the Raiders. He was done. To much coming at him. These teams that make the SB have very good OLs. You can't get around that. It's a must have. Same on the other side. You can't have a garbage DL. Making those 2 groups one of the best is a must. I'm not a fan of Daniels. Only good year he had was year 5. Even with that he lost to FSU and Bama. Plus he is skinny as a rail. This is the NFL not Army who he beat 62-0. I like Maye the best. Great size, arm and speed. His accuracy has been questioned. That could destroy him. None of these 3 impress me. I wouldn't take any of them at our pick. Some very good players will be there.

[cogitator]

He did not. Had Nix been inconsistent, it would have been a blessing. Instead, he was consistently off-target, often throwing sideline passes out of bounds and in-breaking routes behind the receiver. His control over ball velocity was minimal, and there were moments we saw short underneath routes with too much mustard and deeper throws without enough air.

Interesting, thanks for posting. I saw Nix play a couple of times this year, and even after that I didn't get an idea of how good, or not so good, he was. He was hitting receivers, but they were pretty open, and then they would turn 10 and 15 yard passes into 50 yard receptions. Penix has that disturbing injury history, so question marks for both.

Here is a little more from the Ringer on Nix and Penix. Both have been in college forever, both will turn 24 before the next season starts, so some question if some of their success is just because of how long they've been in college and that they are older than everyone they are playing against.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/2/ ... n-mitchell

Penix will turn 24 in May. He enrolled in college in 2018 (!). He is exactly one day older than Trey Lance, who is entering his fourth NFL season and the final year of his rookie contract. Penix’s football career was long enough that 13 different Marvel movies came out while he was in college. And Nix is even older. He will turn 24 this month, making him four months younger than Trevor Lawrence, who was the first pick in the draft three years ago.

This is the conundrum facing NFL teams as draft season began this week in Mobile: Should evaluators be impressed that Penix and Nix combined to throw for 81 touchdowns and 9,411 passing yards last fall? Or should they be concerned these guys needed half a decade to finally look like NFL players?

[J. Kapp 11]

Here’s a question that Matthew Coller posed on his Purple insider podcast.

Would you trade the 11th pick in 2024, the 2025 first-round pick, and Christian Darrisaw … to the New England Patriots for the third pick in the 2024 draft?

At that point, you’re going to be able to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

Pros:
1. You get your quarterback.
2. You save big money via not paying the Darrisaw extension.
3. A serviceable left tackle is probably good enough if you have a quarterback who can escape and run like Daniels.
4. Tons of money to build the rest of the roster.
5. You only give up one future first-rounder instead of two.
6. If your QB turns into a stud, you’re set for 5 years cap-wise.

Cons:
1. You lose one of the top 5 left tackles in the game.
2. No guarantee that one of those QBs turns into your franchise guy.
3. You lose a future first-round pick.

What say you guys? Yes or no? Other pros and cons?

If they bring Cousins back, no, I wouldn't do it.

If they don't bring Cousins back I might depending on which QB is still on the board at #3. If Daniels, yes, if Mayes or Williams, no.

One other potential con of this would be the talent at DE and CB likely to still be on the board at #11 is really good this year. There could be 3 impact starters at DE/OLB there and 2-3 impact CBs, both positions of real need on the defensive side of the ball. So if KAM/KOC did move up to get a QB, they'd better be sold on that QB as a franchise player at the position.

Sorry, should’ve been more clear.

This assumes Cousins doesn’t come back.

I’d do it for Daniels or Williams. Maye? Not so sure.

I think there’s no doubt that KAM/KOC would only do this if they were sold the guy they draft being the franchise.

[CharVike]

He did not. Had Nix been inconsistent, it would have been a blessing. Instead, he was consistently off-target, often throwing sideline passes out of bounds and in-breaking routes behind the receiver. His control over ball velocity was minimal, and there were moments we saw short underneath routes with too much mustard and deeper throws without enough air.

Interesting, thanks for posting. I saw Nix play a couple of times this year, and even after that I didn't get an idea of how good, or not so good, he was. He was hitting receivers, but they were pretty open, and then they would turn 10 and 15 yard passes into 50 yard receptions. Penix has that disturbing injury history, so question marks for both.

Here is a little more from the Ringer on Nix and Penix. Both have been in college forever, both will turn 24 before the next season starts, so some question if some of their success is just because of how long they've been in college and that they are older than everyone they are playing against.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/2/2/ ... n-mitchell

Penix will turn 24 in May. He enrolled in college in 2018 (!). He is exactly one day older than Trey Lance, who is entering his fourth NFL season and the final year of his rookie contract. Penix’s football career was long enough that 13 different Marvel movies came out while he was in college. And Nix is even older. He will turn 24 this month, making him four months younger than Trevor Lawrence, who was the first pick in the draft three years ago.

This is the conundrum facing NFL teams as draft season began this week in Mobile: Should evaluators be impressed that Penix and Nix combined to throw for 81 touchdowns and 9,411 passing yards last fall? Or should they be concerned these guys needed half a decade to finally look like NFL players?

They should be concerned. One year in that age group is huge.

[VikingsVictorious]

If they bring Cousins back, no, I wouldn't do it.

If they don't bring Cousins back I might depending on which QB is still on the board at #3. If Daniels, yes, if Mayes or Williams, no.

One other potential con of this would be the talent at DE and CB likely to still be on the board at #11 is really good this year. There could be 3 impact starters at DE/OLB there and 2-3 impact CBs, both positions of real need on the defensive side of the ball. So if KAM/KOC did move up to get a QB, they'd better be sold on that QB as a franchise player at the position.

Sorry, should’ve been more clear.

This assumes Cousins doesn’t come back.

I’d do it for Daniels or Williams. Maye? Not so sure.

I think there’s no doubt that KAM/KOC would only do this if they were sold the guy they draft being the franchise.

I've only seen 2 QBs in the last 25 years that I considered franchise QBs on Draft Day. Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow. No way do I see a QB in this draft as a franchise QB. Of course there have been other QBs that turned out incredible like Rodgers and Mahomes, but nobody knew on draft day they would turn out like that.