Off-season Prediction Thread

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CharVike
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

Post by CharVike »

Watching highlights Daniels hit 21 mph on an 85 yard run against FL. Not many in the NFL can do that. He also made some nice throws on every level. Maybe he is the best. Watch JJ for Michigan and he can get outside a collapsing pocket easily. Plus he's looking downfield pointing were the receiver should go. Don't see that much. He also seems to have a good arm and had to make some throws to his target with defenders around them. Basically threading the needle. That's an NFL throw because that's what he will see at the next step. Every QB and there brother are penciled somewhere to us. Based on KOC offense I don't think he's looking for an RPO guy. That wasn't Stafford, Goff or Cousins. Even the backup, Mullens, he traded for isn't.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 12:26 am
J. Kapp 11 wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 5:29 pm
Sorry, should’ve been more clear.

This assumes Cousins doesn’t come back.

I’d do it for Daniels or Williams. Maye? Not so sure.

I think there’s no doubt that KAM/KOC would only do this if they were sold the guy they draft being the franchise.
I've only seen 2 QBs in the last 25 years that I considered franchise QBs on Draft Day. Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow. No way do I see a QB in this draft as a franchise QB. Of course there have been other QBs that turned out incredible like Rodgers and Mahomes, but nobody knew on draft day they would turn out like that.
That's fair. I disagree, but it's fair.

Here's the thing. This assumes Cousins doesn't return. I know that's not what you want, but that's the assumption. If he DOES return, then there's no way I'm drafting a QB in round 1. I've been pretty clear on this. You don't pay a guy $40 million and then draft his replacement, especially when you have other pressing needs. If you bring Cousins back, then that means you're all-in. NFC Championship Game or bust. I don't happen to think this roster is up to that, and with Cousins taking up huge cap, I'm not sure you can make the roster good enough. But in that case, you sure don't waste your No. 1 pick on somebody who's not going to see the field.

If they don't bring Cousins back, then my opinion is that you have to take a swing at a franchise QB. Maybe you've only seen 2 QBs you'd consider franchise in the past 25 years. That's fine. But there have been many more franchise QBs taken than Luck and Burrow. Lots of people thought C.J. Stroud would be a bust. Patrick Mahomes didn't go until the 10th pick. Lamar Jackson barely made the first round. All those teams are pretty happy they chose their guy. Point being, you'll never hit a home run if you don't take a swing. The top 3 of this class is as good as it's been in awhile. So if I'm the Vikings and I'm not bringing Cousins back, then I'm going after one of them.

My personal preference is Daniels. That's based purely on upside. Guy can run, throw and make plays. Can he do it in the NFL? No idea. Williams has a ton of upside, as well, but some of the stuff he's putting out in the media makes me think he'll be a huge headache. Maye seems to be more of a Justin Herbert clone. That's good and bad. Probably the most ready to play right away, and a big guy with a big arm, but I don't see him as the playmaker the other two are.

In order to move up to 3, the Vikings are going to have to give up something. I'm not giving up Jefferson. Ever. He's the best non-QB playmaker in the game. Darrisaw? That's a tough one. I think he's right there among the best tackles in the league. But again, with a guy like Daniels or Williams, you can probably get by with Riley Reiff level play at left tackle. There's also some precedent for doing something like this. The Dolphins traded Laremy Tunsel for a bunch of picks, and that worked out pretty well. I don't know. Like I said, Matthew Coller proposed it on his podcast, and it really got me thinking. If you don't trade away a guy like Darrisaw, then you're giving up first-round picks for years. Essentially you become the Rams, drafting four players a season.

Tough question. I could see it either way. But one thing I'm sure of ... if you're not keeping Cousins, then you'd better draft somebody you like this year at QB. I don't want to get stuck in bridge-QB purgatory.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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CharVike wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 11:22 am Watching highlights Daniels hit 21 mph on an 85 yard run against FL. Not many in the NFL can do that. He also made some nice throws on every level. Maybe he is the best. Watch JJ for Michigan and he can get outside a collapsing pocket easily. Plus he's looking downfield pointing were the receiver should go. Don't see that much. He also seems to have a good arm and had to make some throws to his target with defenders around them. Basically threading the needle. That's an NFL throw because that's what he will see at the next step. Every QB and there brother are penciled somewhere to us. Based on KOC offense I don't think he's looking for an RPO guy. That wasn't Stafford, Goff or Cousins. Even the backup, Mullens, he traded for isn't.
I'm a fan of Daniels. He not only put up video-game numbers, he did it in the SEC. I wouldn't have any problem with the Vikings taking a swing at him.

McCarthy is interesting. He can do some things, but he wasn't asked to do much at Michigan. How good is he really? Honestly, I'd be disappointed if the Vikings used #11 on McCarthy. That's too high, IMO. Second round? Sure. But not #11. I mean, guys like Micah Parsons went at #11. You can get a true impact player there. I'm reluctant to use such a high pick on a guy like McCarthy who's a borderline project.

With the Vikings having the #11 pick, people have Ponder nightmares. We need to remember that Christian Ponder was a desperate reach, and every draft analyst in the world said it at the time. That's what I DON'T want the Vikings to do ... reach for a guy who has no business going that high. Do what it takes to get the guy you really want, or be satisfied with what's available later in the draft.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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J. Kapp 11 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:21 am
CharVike wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 11:22 am Watching highlights Daniels hit 21 mph on an 85 yard run against FL. Not many in the NFL can do that. He also made some nice throws on every level. Maybe he is the best. Watch JJ for Michigan and he can get outside a collapsing pocket easily. Plus he's looking downfield pointing were the receiver should go. Don't see that much. He also seems to have a good arm and had to make some throws to his target with defenders around them. Basically threading the needle. That's an NFL throw because that's what he will see at the next step. Every QB and there brother are penciled somewhere to us. Based on KOC offense I don't think he's looking for an RPO guy. That wasn't Stafford, Goff or Cousins. Even the backup, Mullens, he traded for isn't.
I'm a fan of Daniels. He not only put up video-game numbers, he did it in the SEC. I wouldn't have any problem with the Vikings taking a swing at him.

McCarthy is interesting. He can do some things, but he wasn't asked to do much at Michigan. How good is he really? Honestly, I'd be disappointed if the Vikings used #11 on McCarthy. That's too high, IMO. Second round? Sure. But not #11. I mean, guys like Micah Parsons went at #11. You can get a true impact player there. I'm reluctant to use such a high pick on a guy like McCarthy who's a borderline project.

With the Vikings having the #11 pick, people have Ponder nightmares. We need to remember that Christian Ponder was a desperate reach, and every draft analyst in the world said it at the time. That's what I DON'T want the Vikings to do ... reach for a guy who has no business going that high. Do what it takes to get the guy you really want, or be satisfied with what's available later in the draft.
It's just draft talk which is fun. Fans are as good at picking QBs as the pros. Here is the list of 1st rounders that are coming up on 5th year contract guarentee.
It was supposed to be the QB class of the decade or longer and Trevor Lawrence is the only one of the five—Lawrence, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Fields and Mac Jones—who is viewed as worthy of getting the end of the rookie deal guaranteed.
Look at that list of QBs. You can pick those guys anywhere. Fields is basically Dobbs. Great game or 2 and then nothing. Both can run. Our pick at #11 will have a potential great player. Take potential great player. Us not drafting well is what's been killing this team for a long time. The best thing about the last decade is fans can look at guys highlights and game action. I look and JJ did make throws into tight windows. Plus he's only 21. That's very young. With Caleb everyone seemed to be wide open. They are easy throws.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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J. Kapp 11 wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 5:29 pm Sorry, should’ve been more clear.

This assumes Cousins doesn’t come back.

I’d do it for Daniels or Williams. Maye? Not so sure.

I think there’s no doubt that KAM/KOC would only do this if they were sold the guy they draft being the franchise.
OK, assuming Cousins doesn't come back I'd be OK if they did this to get Daniels, would be cautiously optimistic if they did it to get Williams, and depressed if they did it to get Maye.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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J. Kapp 11 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:21 am I'm a fan of Daniels. He not only put up video-game numbers, he did it in the SEC. I wouldn't have any problem with the Vikings taking a swing at him.
I like everything about the way Daniels plays QB except he takes some hits when he runs and he's a little too eager to run as compared to scramble to create time to find a pass, but he's a crazy-good runner. When he takes off he's actually got an extra gear, which is rare for a QB, and he makes some subtle moves that remind of of how really good WRs like JJ create so much extra yardage after the catch when they get some space and can turn it upfield.

KOC would likely have to rein Daniels in a bit, or at the very least get him to learn to slide and avoid unnecessary contact when he does break out of the pocket. He's not a very big guy so he'll carry some real injury risk if he doesn't do that in the pros.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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CharVike wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 11:22 am Watching highlights Daniels hit 21 mph on an 85 yard run against FL. Not many in the NFL can do that. He also made some nice throws on every level. Maybe he is the best. Watch JJ for Michigan and he can get outside a collapsing pocket easily. Plus he's looking downfield pointing were the receiver should go. Don't see that much. He also seems to have a good arm and had to make some throws to his target with defenders around them. Basically threading the needle. That's an NFL throw because that's what he will see at the next step. Every QB and there brother are penciled somewhere to us. Based on KOC offense I don't think he's looking for an RPO guy. That wasn't Stafford, Goff or Cousins. Even the backup, Mullens, he traded for isn't.
Biggest issue with Daniels is he doesn't like to slide when he runs. He's such a good runner he often doesn't have to, but he can take some big hits too. Durability will be a concern if he continues to do that in the pros.

Other concern with Daniels is he really came on just this year. Prior to that he was good, but not outstanding. A late jump like that can indicate a guy figuring some things out, or it can indicate the team around him just got that much better, played against competition that was that much worse, or he just got a lot of help at the right times. I always think about guys like Case Keenum and Nick Foles when I look at a guy coming into the draft who really just did it at a high level for a year. Sometimes all that means is they played out of their minds for a stretch, but what is the risk they then revert when the situation changes?
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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J. Kapp 11 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:11 am
VikingsVictorious wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 12:26 am
I've only seen 2 QBs in the last 25 years that I considered franchise QBs on Draft Day. Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow. No way do I see a QB in this draft as a franchise QB. Of course there have been other QBs that turned out incredible like Rodgers and Mahomes, but nobody knew on draft day they would turn out like that.
That's fair. I disagree, but it's fair.

Here's the thing. This assumes Cousins doesn't return. I know that's not what you want, but that's the assumption. If he DOES return, then there's no way I'm drafting a QB in round 1. I've been pretty clear on this. You don't pay a guy $40 million and then draft his replacement, especially when you have other pressing needs. If you bring Cousins back, then that means you're all-in. NFC Championship Game or bust. I don't happen to think this roster is up to that, and with Cousins taking up huge cap, I'm not sure you can make the roster good enough. But in that case, you sure don't waste your No. 1 pick on somebody who's not going to see the field.

If they don't bring Cousins back, then my opinion is that you have to take a swing at a franchise QB. Maybe you've only seen 2 QBs you'd consider franchise in the past 25 years. That's fine. But there have been many more franchise QBs taken than Luck and Burrow. Lots of people thought C.J. Stroud would be a bust. Patrick Mahomes didn't go until the 10th pick. Lamar Jackson barely made the first round. All those teams are pretty happy they chose their guy. Point being, you'll never hit a home run if you don't take a swing. The top 3 of this class is as good as it's been in awhile. So if I'm the Vikings and I'm not bringing Cousins back, then I'm going after one of them.

My personal preference is Daniels. That's based purely on upside. Guy can run, throw and make plays. Can he do it in the NFL? No idea. Williams has a ton of upside, as well, but some of the stuff he's putting out in the media makes me think he'll be a huge headache. Maye seems to be more of a Justin Herbert clone. That's good and bad. Probably the most ready to play right away, and a big guy with a big arm, but I don't see him as the playmaker the other two are.

In order to move up to 3, the Vikings are going to have to give up something. I'm not giving up Jefferson. Ever. He's the best non-QB playmaker in the game. Darrisaw? That's a tough one. I think he's right there among the best tackles in the league. But again, with a guy like Daniels or Williams, you can probably get by with Riley Reiff level play at left tackle. There's also some precedent for doing something like this. The Dolphins traded Laremy Tunsel for a bunch of picks, and that worked out pretty well. I don't know. Like I said, Matthew Coller proposed it on his podcast, and it really got me thinking. If you don't trade away a guy like Darrisaw, then you're giving up first-round picks for years. Essentially you become the Rams, drafting four players a season.

Tough question. I could see it either way. But one thing I'm sure of ... if you're not keeping Cousins, then you'd better draft somebody you like this year at QB. I don't want to get stuck in bridge-QB purgatory.
I know that several other QBs turned out real good. However, other than Luck and Burrow I didn't see anybody else that ON DRAFT DAY I knew would be stars. Some didn't even like Burrow because he was too old. You said if we were trading up we had to know for absolute certain the QB we were getting would be a franchise QB/IE a star. Do you know for certain that Daniels will be that? If you don't then according to your own narrative we shouldn't be trading up for him. If we were trading up no way in hell would I give up Darrisaw to trade up. I would much rather trade Jefferson if he can reap what I think he can reap. He won't stick around if Cousins is gone anyway.

If I'm the GM no way does Kirk coming off injury at his age get $40 million. I don't think any team is going to offer him that. I could live with $35, but that's the best he will do anywhere. I'm thinking we can maybe get him at $30 million a year for 2 years. Sounds like wishful thinking, but hey I'm an optimist.
I disagree with you about keeping Kirk and drafting a first round QB. However that is based on paying less than you are assuming. If we do keep Kirk I'm hearing that we can maybe get somebody with a decent shot of becoming a starter in the 2nd round or maybe a move up into the very late first round.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Is Daniels basically Kyler Murray 2.0?
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingLord wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:05 pm
CharVike wrote: Sun Feb 04, 2024 11:22 am Watching highlights Daniels hit 21 mph on an 85 yard run against FL. Not many in the NFL can do that. He also made some nice throws on every level. Maybe he is the best. Watch JJ for Michigan and he can get outside a collapsing pocket easily. Plus he's looking downfield pointing were the receiver should go. Don't see that much. He also seems to have a good arm and had to make some throws to his target with defenders around them. Basically threading the needle. That's an NFL throw because that's what he will see at the next step. Every QB and there brother are penciled somewhere to us. Based on KOC offense I don't think he's looking for an RPO guy. That wasn't Stafford, Goff or Cousins. Even the backup, Mullens, he traded for isn't.
Biggest issue with Daniels is he doesn't like to slide when he runs. He's such a good runner he often doesn't have to, but he can take some big hits too. Durability will be a concern if he continues to do that in the pros.

Other concern with Daniels is he really came on just this year. Prior to that he was good, but not outstanding. A late jump like that can indicate a guy figuring some things out, or it can indicate the team around him just got that much better, played against competition that was that much worse, or he just got a lot of help at the right times. I always think about guys like Case Keenum and Nick Foles when I look at a guy coming into the draft who really just did it at a high level for a year. Sometimes all that means is they played out of their minds for a stretch, but what is the risk they then revert when the situation changes?
In the end if one good starter is found in this entire class I'd be surprised. The more I look the more I like JJ for us. Especially only being 21 years old and started for 2 years. I wouldn't use pick 11 but 2nd round is ok. We are all just looking at a very high level view and taking our best guess. Everyone of them has negatives. I would be happy to roll with Cousins again but also pick a guy. Our team won't be a favorite to win it all but at least they will be watchable. It will also allow Jefferson and Addison to thrive. That's important also. They want to put up numbers also. It's money in their pocket. We'll see how it shakes out. I'm sure they are evaluating these guys and they haven't reached on anybody yet. Of course if Cousins is out that may turn up the reaching. That's never a good spot to be in.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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None of the QBs are sure things just like none of the other positions are sure things. Staying at 11 and grabbing a DE or DB, for example, doesn't mean they'll play any better. I'm not saying to "reach" for a QB in the 1st round that isn't worth it, but trade up and get one you want? Definitely if they can find a partner and it's reasonable.

Of all the holes on the team, QB is by far the biggest and needs the most attention. Whether that means throwing a bunch of money at Cousins or throwing out a bunch of draft capital for a rookie. Neither of those options by themselves are "safe". Cousins may or may not return to form after his injury. He could be a little "jumpy" at times ... how will he be now? He may or may not be able to stay healthy. On the other side a rookie QB may flop and they mostly don't play all that great in their first season even if they turn out to be good.

I think it's time for this team to actually go after a QB they think can be "the guy". This is an offensive-minded pass-first team without a solid plan at QB. Fixing that, ideally long term, should be priority.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Cliff wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:22 am None of the QBs are sure things just like none of the other positions are sure things. Staying at 11 and grabbing a DE or DB, for example, doesn't mean they'll play any better. I'm not saying to "reach" for a QB in the 1st round that isn't worth it, but trade up and get one you want? Definitely if they can find a partner and it's reasonable.

Of all the holes on the team, QB is by far the biggest and needs the most attention. Whether that means throwing a bunch of money at Cousins or throwing out a bunch of draft capital for a rookie. Neither of those options by themselves are "safe". Cousins may or may not return to form after his injury. He could be a little "jumpy" at times ... how will he be now? He may or may not be able to stay healthy. On the other side a rookie QB may flop and they mostly don't play all that great in their first season even if they turn out to be good.

I think it's time for this team to actually go after a QB they think can be "the guy". This is an offensive-minded pass-first team without a solid plan at QB. Fixing that, ideally long term, should be priority.
When you say think can be the guy what does that really mean. Does think equal 95% likely or 15% likely? If I'm using our first round pick I need to at least feel like it's odds on.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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Nothing is for sure. You can draft Andrew luck and then ruin him by never putting a good oline in front of him. Hey look, that gm who did that is executive vp of player personal for us! :wallbang:

I am a proponent of once you identify what you want, make it happen. There is a difference between identifying the wrong player, and not being able to get said player. If they are identifying the wrong player, we need the right people in place.

We have to swing eventually. Whether draft or fa. Ultimately we simply have to draft better imho. This draft is pretty damn important for kams future imho.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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VikingsVictorious wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:37 am
Cliff wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:22 am None of the QBs are sure things just like none of the other positions are sure things. Staying at 11 and grabbing a DE or DB, for example, doesn't mean they'll play any better. I'm not saying to "reach" for a QB in the 1st round that isn't worth it, but trade up and get one you want? Definitely if they can find a partner and it's reasonable.

Of all the holes on the team, QB is by far the biggest and needs the most attention. Whether that means throwing a bunch of money at Cousins or throwing out a bunch of draft capital for a rookie. Neither of those options by themselves are "safe". Cousins may or may not return to form after his injury. He could be a little "jumpy" at times ... how will he be now? He may or may not be able to stay healthy. On the other side a rookie QB may flop and they mostly don't play all that great in their first season even if they turn out to be good.

I think it's time for this team to actually go after a QB they think can be "the guy". This is an offensive-minded pass-first team without a solid plan at QB. Fixing that, ideally long term, should be priority.
When you say think can be the guy what does that really mean. Does think equal 95% likely or 15% likely? If I'm using our first round pick I need to at least feel like it's odds on.
High enough percentage for KOC to bet his head coaching job on him, because that's likely what he'd be doing if they trade up into the top 3 picks.
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Re: Off-season Prediction Thread

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makila wrote: Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:29 am Nothing is for sure. You can draft Andrew luck and then ruin him by never putting a good oline in front of him. Hey look, that gm who did that is executive vp of player personal for us! :wallbang:

I am a proponent of once you identify what you want, make it happen. There is a difference between identifying the wrong player, and not being able to get said player. If they are identifying the wrong player, we need the right people in place.

We have to swing eventually. Whether draft or fa. Ultimately we simply have to draft better imho. This draft is pretty damn important for kams future imho.
I wish KAM was not making the decisions. If Kirk is gone I think our better move is to draft BPA this year. We will suck and get a high Draft pick for next year. That's when we get our next QB. If Kirk is still here then draft our next QB this year.