What now? A golf analogy

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StanM
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by StanM »

At this point we have faced so much adversity that a recovery and legitimate playoff run are an unrealistic expectation. I see Dobbs not being able to take full advantage of JJ’s skill set. Not after seeing him throw a sure TD to Addison out of bounds. Mullen checks off the same mobility boxes as Cousins but is a veteran who knows the playbook. The way our OL played the Bears I believe he would struggle. Hall moved the team on one drive and looked good but put him in the game and he will have rookie moments.

My take on the QB situation is that I’m glad that they didn’t make a Bradford type trade giving up a 1st in a desperate attempt to salvage this season. I think we need to ride this out with whatever combination they can put on the field. I will try not to get to low if they continue to lose and too high when they win one. They need to stick with what we have, let the dust settle and figure out what they’re going to do next season.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by chicagopurple »

Making the playoffs really isnt so important given that even if we do squeak in, we have almost no chance of making to the Super Bowl. The really important question is , Do we have a quarterback for the future? That is what the remainder of the season needs to teach the front office. Dobbs is never going to be that guy, ask the other 20 teams that tried him and released him. Hall is the only guy on the team with any chance of being the QB that grows and sees a Super Bowl. He needs to start and show his worth. As with all our QBs this decade, it wont be easy to analyze with our non existent OL, but it needs to be examined.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by CharVike »

chicagopurple wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 12:54 pm Making the playoffs really isnt so important given that even if we do squeak in, we have almost no chance of making to the Super Bowl. The really important question is , Do we have a quarterback for the future? That is what the remainder of the season needs to teach the front office. Dobbs is never going to be that guy, ask the other 20 teams that tried him and released him. Hall is the only guy on the team with any chance of being the QB that grows and sees a Super Bowl. He needs to start and show his worth. As with all our QBs this decade, it wont be easy to analyze with our non existent OL, but it needs to be examined.
Making the playoffs might not be important to some fans but I guarantee there is an importance to some stake holders. If you were the HC do you just say F it we are done let's see what we have in our rookie reach pick? If you owned the team would you say pack it in and see what we have and not get the extra cash for a playoff game? If I was an owner I would say get the cash. If we do tank with a rookie QB do you want you younger superstars out there playing also? Do you want JJ reaching and stretching for errant passes and possibly taking brutal hits from that? Maybe he'll say I want out now. Dobbs sucks everyone including the coaches know this. He was a body to fill a void and was available for basically nothing. Mullens sucks everyone knows that also. Cousins was/is the best we had since Tark. Others feel the total opposite which is ok it's there opinion. IMO cycling through young stiff QBs over and over for decades sucks. I'm to old to go through that crap again. I already saw it and it's not entertaining. I won't watch it again. Let the younger fans live through that. I want the best chance to win now and that won't happen with the next Teddy or TJack or Webb or Ponder or Hall.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by chicagopurple »

Come on, be honest, you KNOW this current team has zero chance of winning the SB. Just like you, I have been supporting this team 50 yrs. I have seen super bowl contenders come and go, and this team is no where near being one. If top tier talent like JJ chose to stay in MN its is not because they know we are on the cusp of a super bowl. Keeping him will depend on paying him VERY well. With Cousins bloated contract gone, we will be able to do so. Its not rocket science. We need a very good QB and OL. I suspect we have neither. Could Hall be the guy? Yeah, thats a big maybe. Will ever find out with our current OL....No Way. But our other 2 QBs are a total waste of time and there is nothing to be learned by putting them on the field.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

chicagopurple wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 2:27 pm Come on, be honest, you KNOW this current team has zero chance of winning the SB. Just like you, I have been supporting this team 50 yrs. I have seen super bowl contenders come and go, and this team is no where near being one. If top tier talent like JJ chose to stay in MN its is not because they know we are on the cusp of a super bowl. Keeping him will depend on paying him VERY well. With Cousins bloated contract gone, we will be able to do so. Its not rocket science. We need a very good QB and OL. I suspect we have neither. Could Hall be the guy? Yeah, thats a big maybe. Will ever find out with our current OL....No Way. But our other 2 QBs are a total waste of time and there is nothing to be learned by putting them on the field.
Let’s say everybody on this board agrees with you. This team has no chance to win the SB.

Ownership and management is still not going to tank. And they’re not going to play a rookie just to see what they’ve got.

They’re going to try to win as many games as they can. As goofy as it sounds, the Vikings are still the #6 seed, thanks to Seattle losing again. They’re going to try to win games.

Even if they make the playoffs, you know they’re not going to win the SB. I know it. Casual fans know it. Everybody knows it. But KOC and company aren’t going to stop trying until they’re eliminated. It’s that simple.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by VikingLord »

chicagopurple wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 2:27 pm Come on, be honest, you KNOW this current team has zero chance of winning the SB. Just like you, I have been supporting this team 50 yrs. I have seen super bowl contenders come and go, and this team is no where near being one. If top tier talent like JJ chose to stay in MN its is not because they know we are on the cusp of a super bowl. Keeping him will depend on paying him VERY well. With Cousins bloated contract gone, we will be able to do so. Its not rocket science. We need a very good QB and OL. I suspect we have neither. Could Hall be the guy? Yeah, thats a big maybe. Will ever find out with our current OL....No Way. But our other 2 QBs are a total waste of time and there is nothing to be learned by putting them on the field.
I think the Vikings have pieces of a very good team in place. The OL, for example, has one of the better right tackle, left guard and left tackle in the league. The major weaknesses on the line remain at center (although Bradbury has played pretty well this year) and right guard, but the line overall is probably the best it has been in the last several years right now.

The QB situation is definitely in flux, but in some ways this is a good thing. People are rightly praising Cousins performance this year up until he got hurt, but there were many like me who wanted the Vikings to move on from Cousins, primarily because of his consistent failure to step in key games in the key moments. That is a problem I doubt he would have shaken this year or will shake in the future at this point in his career. While that sucks in the short term for the remainder of this season and their chances at postseason success this year, it also forces their hand at the QB position for next season and going forward. Now, they don't have a choice, or at least they can't just keep plodding along at the position. If Cousins fully recovers he'll still be a free agent next year and any team thinking about signing him will have to worry about his health given his age and the nature of his injury.

As for just giving up on this season, I agree with Kapp they won't do that. They'll start the QB who they think gives them the best chance to win their next game. If by some miracle that QB is also the player that gives them the best chance of winning over the longer term, that would be ideal. But as it stands, I think it will be Dobbs for the game against the Raiders, and if Dobbs struggles again, it will be Nick Mullens the game after that. I don't know how long they'd stick with Mullens. I imagine until he performs so poorly they have to yank him too, or until the team can no longer make the playoffs, at which point they'll likely give Hall another go.

I personally don't think any of the current QBs on the roster will be the starter for this franchise next year. I think this will be the year they draft someone they hope can become their starter and/or make a move in free agency to acquire their starter (and that includes bringing Cousins back, which could happen). None of the QBs on the roster has demonstrated starting potential. Hall looked good in limited action before he went out, but if he were knocking on the door as their starter KOC would have put him back in as soon as he was ready when Dobbs started to struggle. That didn't happen, and that says everything to me about where Hall is at. Dobbs is not the answer either. Mullens has always been, and will always be, a backup QB at this level.

There is good and bad in this situation. I agree with you the Vikings were never going to win the Superbowl this year even with everyone healthy, but the worst-case situation for the team has been avoided where they once again did just well enough to have just enough success where the team braintrust felt no major changes were needed. Now some changes have been forced. It might require a step backward next year, but at least there is the prospect of meaningful improvement past that if KOC and KAM make the right moves this coming offseason.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by CharVike »

:slice:
VikingLord wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 5:44 pm
chicagopurple wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 2:27 pm Come on, be honest, you KNOW this current team has zero chance of winning the SB. Just like you, I have been supporting this team 50 yrs. I have seen super bowl contenders come and go, and this team is no where near being one. If top tier talent like JJ chose to stay in MN its is not because they know we are on the cusp of a super bowl. Keeping him will depend on paying him VERY well. With Cousins bloated contract gone, we will be able to do so. Its not rocket science. We need a very good QB and OL. I suspect we have neither. Could Hall be the guy? Yeah, thats a big maybe. Will ever find out with our current OL....No Way. But our other 2 QBs are a total waste of time and there is nothing to be learned by putting them on the field.
I think the Vikings have pieces of a very good team in place. The OL, for example, has one of the better right tackle, left guard and left tackle in the league. The major weaknesses on the line remain at center (although Bradbury has played pretty well this year) and right guard, but the line overall is probably the best it has been in the last several years right now.

The QB situation is definitely in flux, but in some ways this is a good thing. People are rightly praising Cousins performance this year up until he got hurt, but there were many like me who wanted the Vikings to move on from Cousins, primarily because of his consistent failure to step in key games in the key moments. That is a problem I doubt he would have shaken this year or will shake in the future at this point in his career. While that sucks in the short term for the remainder of this season and their chances at postseason success this year, it also forces their hand at the QB position for next season and going forward. Now, they don't have a choice, or at least they can't just keep plodding along at the position. If Cousins fully recovers he'll still be a free agent next year and any team thinking about signing him will have to worry about his health given his age and the nature of his injury.

As for just giving up on this season, I agree with Kapp they won't do that. They'll start the QB who they think gives them the best chance to win their next game. If by some miracle that QB is also the player that gives them the best chance of winning over the longer term, that would be ideal. But as it stands, I think it will be Dobbs for the game against the Raiders, and if Dobbs struggles again, it will be Nick Mullens the game after that. I don't know how long they'd stick with Mullens. I imagine until he performs so poorly they have to yank him too, or until the team can no longer make the playoffs, at which point they'll likely give Hall another go.

I personally don't think any of the current QBs on the roster will be the starter for this franchise next year. I think this will be the year they draft someone they hope can become their starter and/or make a move in free agency to acquire their starter (and that includes bringing Cousins back, which could happen). None of the QBs on the roster has demonstrated starting potential. Hall looked good in limited action before he went out, but if he were knocking on the door as their starter KOC would have put him back in as soon as he was ready when Dobbs started to struggle. That didn't happen, and that says everything to me about where Hall is at. Dobbs is not the answer either. Mullens has always been, and will always be, a backup QB at this level.

There is good and bad in this situation. I agree with you the Vikings were never going to win the Superbowl this year even with everyone healthy, but the worst-case situation for the team has been avoided where they once again did just well enough to have just enough success where the team braintrust felt no major changes were needed. Now some changes have been forced. It might require a step backward next year, but at least there is the prospect of meaningful improvement past that if KOC and KAM make the right moves this coming offseason.
One piece you forgot is Flores. That was the biggest D improvement I have ever seen. Basically the same guys. We didn't give Hunter away which also points to trying to win. This is a 49ers and Eagles conference. No other team in our conference is at there level. Could they get beat in the playoffs? Yes they can. The Rams did it with loser Stafford. That was with KOC. He will try to do what was done there. He won't bring back the run and shoot or some other nonsense. Does he need Brady? Not based on history.
I got off track. You didn't forget Flores. I just wanted to point him out as a piece. The draft as also is a bit of a crap shoot. I don't see a Luck or Burrow or Mahomes in this glass. It's a guess for us and the teams. But the teams have far more info than any of us fans. They know people who have been around these guys day in and day out. They have scouts watching every snap at a much deeper depth than any fan can.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

Post by CharVike »

I think KOC did try to evolve his current offense to fit with Dobbs and added a WildCat type of formation when Hock was the QB. Of course that ended with a Dobbs fumble. That was a grasping at straws approach to offense. I would have used Wright since he played QB in high school and that's what the WildCat is. Plus the D would need to worry about the punt possibility. That would open the secondary up. Mullens has done some interesting things in his career. Of course he must look like dog crap in practice and eventually in games. When the Browns were forced to promote him to the roster and to provide a level of excitement for an upcoming game this Browns writer pointed out the following. Mullens' 4,405 passing yards in his first 16 starts mark the second-most by any quarterback in NFL history in that span, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (5,100). Mullens has played in 19 career games with 16 starts, tossing 387 completions for 4,714 yards and 25 touchdowns. The Browns liked Mullens' experience, which included eight starts last season with the San Francisco 49ers. Mullens was 2-6 as a starter in 2020 but largely worked with an injury-depleted roster and totaled a 64.7 completion percentage with 2,437 yards, 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Mullens was needed because QBs Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum were placed on the covid list. Mayfield, Keenum and Mullens. Could be us next year. No way KOC goes out like that.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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RE: Can the Vikings win the super bowl?

I think they can, but I think the odds are slim.

Before Kirk went down they had a very decent chance of winning the NFC, I think. Someone pointed to the 49ers and Eagles being the class of the NFC. They beat the 49ers without Jefferson. They only lost to the Eagles by 6 and from my memory they mostly outplayed them. Without the four fumbles they would have won, I have little doubt. Of course you have to credit the Eagles for actually causing the fumbles but it was an issue with the Vikings against basically every team they played early. The Vikings truly beat themselves at the beginning of the year.

Now Kirk is gone so those chances are slim. If they have any chance at all they need consistent above average QB play or for Jefferson to come back and help elevate someone to that level. And of course turnovers. They can't win with 3 or 4 TOs a game without generating any themselves.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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Cliff wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 9:16 am RE: Can the Vikings win the super bowl?

I think they can, but I think the odds are slim.

Before Kirk went down they had a very decent chance of winning the NFC, I think. Someone pointed to the 49ers and Eagles being the class of the NFC. They beat the 49ers without Jefferson. They only lost to the Eagles by 6 and from my memory they mostly outplayed them. Without the four fumbles they would have won, I have little doubt. Of course you have to credit the Eagles for actually causing the fumbles but it was an issue with the Vikings against basically every team they played early. The Vikings truly beat themselves at the beginning of the year.

Now Kirk is gone so those chances are slim. If they have any chance at all they need consistent above average QB play or for Jefferson to come back and help elevate someone to that level. And of course turnovers. They can't win with 3 or 4 TOs a game without generating any themselves.
If they go 3-2 over the next 5 they probably get in. Losing that Bear game was a kick in the gut because that team sucks. All those interceptions almost guarantees a loss against any team. They need Mullens to get in there and play decent otherwise I don't see 3 wins coming. Once in they can beat another middle of the road team but beyond that I don't see it.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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Cliff wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 9:16 am RE: Can the Vikings win the super bowl?

I think they can, but I think the odds are slim.

Before Kirk went down they had a very decent chance of winning the NFC, I think. Someone pointed to the 49ers and Eagles being the class of the NFC. They beat the 49ers without Jefferson. They only lost to the Eagles by 6 and from my memory they mostly outplayed them. Without the four fumbles they would have won, I have little doubt. Of course you have to credit the Eagles for actually causing the fumbles but it was an issue with the Vikings against basically every team they played early. The Vikings truly beat themselves at the beginning of the year.

Now Kirk is gone so those chances are slim. If they have any chance at all they need consistent above average QB play or for Jefferson to come back and help elevate someone to that level. And of course turnovers. They can't win with 3 or 4 TOs a game without generating any themselves.
You make valid points, and I would be tempted to agree with you that with Kirk their chances were reasonable even if they were not great. But then I remember Kirk's penchant for folding at the critical moment and I remember why I was so doubtful they ever had a real chance even with Cousins.

I'd go even further though - Cousins isn't the only person who shrunk in the key moments. KOC does too with his playcalling. The defense gets the ball back via turnover late against the Bears and the offense needs one first down to close it out. And what does KOC call? Two runs and a throw behind the LOS. Yes, turnovers are definitely an issue in the losses, but every win but one has been close, and I can't help but think that is the case because once KOC's team gets a lead he calls plays to protect the lead versus just win the game.

Anyway, we Vikings fans are the kings and queens of moral victories and "almosts". Over the years I've watched so many Vikings teams that weren't that far away, and yet in retrospect many of those teams were never good enough to get to, much less win, a Superbowl, and this year's team is in most aspects no different than last year's team in that regard with the exception of Lady Luck. Last year's team found ways to win the close games while this year's team has found ways to lose about half of them. Both teams are middling squads overall, though, and neither really ever had a chance of being more than that when all is said-and-done. Dobbs, or Mullens, or Hall at QB doesn't change that.

The team needs an infusion of talent at a few key positions and a more aggressive mentality on offense that presses and tests the defense even when playing with a lead. Until that happens I don't see the Vikings credibly contending for a Superbowl appearance.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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VikingLord wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:17 pm You make valid points, and I would be tempted to agree with you that with Kirk their chances were reasonable even if they were not great. But then I remember Kirk's penchant for folding at the critical moment and I remember why I was so doubtful they ever had a real chance even with Cousins.

I'd go even further though - Cousins isn't the only person who shrunk in the key moments. KOC does too with his playcalling. The defense gets the ball back via turnover late against the Bears and the offense needs one first down to close it out. And what does KOC call? Two runs and a throw behind the LOS. Yes, turnovers are definitely an issue in the losses, but every win but one has been close, and I can't help but think that is the case because once KOC's team gets a lead he calls plays to protect the lead versus just win the game.

Anyway, we Vikings fans are the kings and queens of moral victories and "almosts". Over the years I've watched so many Vikings teams that weren't that far away, and yet in retrospect many of those teams were never good enough to get to, much less win, a Superbowl, and this year's team is in most aspects no different than last year's team in that regard with the exception of Lady Luck. Last year's team found ways to win the close games while this year's team has found ways to lose about half of them. Both teams are middling squads overall, though, and neither really ever had a chance of being more than that when all is said-and-done. Dobbs, or Mullens, or Hall at QB doesn't change that.

The team needs an infusion of talent at a few key positions and a more aggressive mentality on offense that presses and tests the defense even when playing with a lead. Until that happens I don't see the Vikings credibly contending for a Superbowl appearance.
Kirk does indeed have a history of playing poorly in big games but he cleaned that up a bit recently. I didn't like that play call either, but hopefully he learns from it. I didn't like him crawling into a shell either.

I'm not personally celebrating "almost" when I talked about the Eagles. Just that if they're the second best in the NFC they played pretty well against them. Even with 4 TOs they stayed in it. I'm not happy with that, of course, just that closely under those conditions shows that much of the team is working.

Without Jefferson the offense is middling. Without Kirk and Jefferson the offense was pretty poor but that's to be expected. With them both in the offense is firmly above average. The defense *was* middling but they're actually pretty good now. Above average I'd say. 13th in yards per game give up, 8th least points per game given up.

The Vikings are the 3rd worst team in TO differential at -8, it almost makes the rest of the stats not even matter. If they were -2 or better they'd be in the talk for winning the NFC right now.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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Cliff wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:04 am The Vikings are the 3rd worst team in TO differential at -8, it almost makes the rest of the stats not even matter. If they were -2 or better they'd be in the talk for winning the NFC right now.
This is the reason they have the record they have more than any other factor IMHO, including losing both Cousins and JJ to injuries for extended periods of time.

But, even if the TO differential were better and both Cousins and JJ were healthy, while people might be talking about them winning the NFC, I still think their chances of actually doing that would be about the same as they were last year when they didn't have any of the turnover issues and won all the close games because this year's team fundamentally is still last year's team, and least year's team was fundamentally flawed in ways that are subtle, but ultimately, critical.

For me, the best thing about the Vikings right now is they have lost their Cousins security blanket at QB. Now KOC and KAM have to face some uncomfortable truths at that position, truths that will hopefully force them to make a bold move at the position over the offseason and that might, just might, get the team pointed in a direction where they can begin sustainably competing for more than a first round playoff berth.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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Cliff wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 9:16 am RE: Can the Vikings win the super bowl?

I think they can, but I think the odds are slim.

Before Kirk went down they had a very decent chance of winning the NFC, I think. Someone pointed to the 49ers and Eagles being the class of the NFC. They beat the 49ers without Jefferson. They only lost to the Eagles by 6 and from my memory they mostly outplayed them. Without the four fumbles they would have won, I have little doubt. Of course you have to credit the Eagles for actually causing the fumbles but it was an issue with the Vikings against basically every team they played early. The Vikings truly beat themselves at the beginning of the year.

Now Kirk is gone so those chances are slim. If they have any chance at all they need consistent above average QB play or for Jefferson to come back and help elevate someone to that level. And of course turnovers. They can't win with 3 or 4 TOs a game without generating any themselves.
To compete at this point, they will need to adjust their offense and really establish a run game. I think there is a better chance of this than there is of any healthy qb on the roster rising the the occasion with our current offense in place.

I hope the vikings used the bye week to figure out how to play to the strength of their defense by gearing up to run on 60 percent of their offensive downs, while drilling play action, single or double read pass plays over and over again with whoever they think is the best option at qb. (1) Hit the tight end dragging the middle, or (2) the WR over the top, or (3) tuck it and run, or (4) throw it away. Keep it very very simple and start mashing in the run game. Eat up clock, try to get to 20 points on offense. Let Flores keep doing what he is doing with that defense.
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Re: What now? A golf analogy

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VikingLord wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:50 pm
Cliff wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:04 am The Vikings are the 3rd worst team in TO differential at -8, it almost makes the rest of the stats not even matter. If they were -2 or better they'd be in the talk for winning the NFC right now.
This is the reason they have the record they have more than any other factor IMHO, including losing both Cousins and JJ to injuries for extended periods of time.

But, even if the TO differential were better and both Cousins and JJ were healthy, while people might be talking about them winning the NFC, I still think their chances of actually doing that would be about the same as they were last year when they didn't have any of the turnover issues and won all the close games because this year's team fundamentally is still last year's team, and least year's team was fundamentally flawed in ways that are subtle, but ultimately, critical.

For me, the best thing about the Vikings right now is they have lost their Cousins security blanket at QB. Now KOC and KAM have to face some uncomfortable truths at that position, truths that will hopefully force them to make a bold move at the position over the offseason and that might, just might, get the team pointed in a direction where they can begin sustainably competing for more than a first round playoff berth.
This team is the best Vikings team in a long while. By best, I mean, closest to realistically competing for a championship. The offense is a modern offense and it was running solid with Kirk Cousins. And Brian Flores has totally transformed this defense from a obsolete, soft, read and react unit, to a physical downhill unit that forces the issue. The injuries really hurt them, as the turnovers did early in the year, but it was already clear that this team had the potential to amount to something pretty dangerous if they got hot at the right time.
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