Bucs at Vikings Pre-Game
Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:50 pm
Here we are at the start of a new season with the Vikings' first opponent being the Bucs in Minnesota. I've read the power rankings and various takes on the Vikings over the offseason and know a little about the Bucs heading into the 2023 season and thought I'd post a few observations on the upcoming game along with my prediction (since predictions, while relatively useless, are still a lot of fun).
- I'll start with a general observation on both teams. The Vikings return largely the same strength (offense) that drove their success last year, while the Bucs return largely the same strength (defense) that drove their results last year. The Bucs were a solid defensive team last year, finishing top 10 in a few areas and solid top half overall. Their defense matches up very well against the relative weaknesses of the Vikings offense as well. They have interior DL size, aggressive LBs who can create pressure and disruption against both the run and pass, and solid CBs that can make a QB pay for errant throws. If the Vikings continue to have interior OL issues, issues protecting the QB, or issues getting separation downfield, the Bucs are a defense that will expose those problems. On the flip side, if the Vikings offense moves the ball consistently, that will bode very well for offense for the rest of the season IMHO.
- On the topic of the Vikings offense, I'll be watching the run game closely. Last year the Vikings really struggled to generate consistent gains on the ground (they ranked near the bottom in rushing yards/game and I believe their average yards/rush was also pretty low). Cook did have some highlight reel runs, but unfortunately those proved more the exception than the rule, and the lack of consistent production on the ground put the offense into more unfavorable 2nd and 3rd down situations than a top-performing offense ideally sees throughout a season. While the run game is no longer the focus of the offense as it was under Zimmer, the Vikings will need to demonstrate they can take advantage if a defense stacks to stop the pass or is overly aggressive in the pass rush. When the Vikings choose to run, can they pick up the 4+ yards per carry (ideally 4.5+) that gives them confidence they can run it effectively? Here's hoping Mattison and the other backs along with the offensive line can do a better job than the backups at those position did during the preseason in the run game.
- Also on the topic of the Vikings offense, the team appears loaded at WR and TE and Cousins should be able to find open receivers both in this upcoming game and all year if he has time. This is probably the deepest pool of receivers among the TEs and WRs I can remember the Vikings having in a long time.
- Biggest question in this game for both sides, and the question I think will decide the outcome, is the matchup of the Buc offense against the Vikings defense. Both have some big question marks heading into the season and both have a lot to prove. Can Baker Mayfield effectively lead the Buc offense? He's had a spotty career thus far. He's certainly capable of playing at a high level on any given Sunday, but he's also capable of making some truly poor decisions. Sometimes he does both in the same game. I think he will be a huge factor on Sunday. Another big question mark is the Vikings defense. Can the Vikings shut down what appears to be an anemic Buc run game? The Vikings defense struggled all year with consistently defending the run, especially on outside runs. With Tomlinson gone, does that issue expand to include interior runs, or can the Vikings get that under control? If they struggle against the Bucs, that bodes ill for the rest of the season and teams that have better rushing games IMHO. Likewise, can the Vikings revamped secondary defend a Buc passing game that while not amazing certainly has some punch. Lastly, can the Vikings defense simply find more ways to get off the field more consistently? The defense wasn't great at that last year, at least not for full games, and were terrible at it in certain situations where a stop would have done wonders to avert so many single score games and the need for comebacks to win.
I suspect this game will be pretty close. I think the Buc defense will keep the Vikings offense largely in check. Not off the board necessarily, but will limit scoring. On the flip side, I think Mayfield is going to really struggle against the looks Flores is going to throw at him, and the Vikings have enough speed in the LB corps that Mayfield will be pressured consistently. Couple that pressure with good run defense and I think the Bucs will also struggle to score.
I think the game ends up tied late in the 4th, and as much as I don't want to envision yet another one score game, I think the winner will be a late Vikings field goal.
Final score will be 17-14 with the Vikings coming out on top.
- I'll start with a general observation on both teams. The Vikings return largely the same strength (offense) that drove their success last year, while the Bucs return largely the same strength (defense) that drove their results last year. The Bucs were a solid defensive team last year, finishing top 10 in a few areas and solid top half overall. Their defense matches up very well against the relative weaknesses of the Vikings offense as well. They have interior DL size, aggressive LBs who can create pressure and disruption against both the run and pass, and solid CBs that can make a QB pay for errant throws. If the Vikings continue to have interior OL issues, issues protecting the QB, or issues getting separation downfield, the Bucs are a defense that will expose those problems. On the flip side, if the Vikings offense moves the ball consistently, that will bode very well for offense for the rest of the season IMHO.
- On the topic of the Vikings offense, I'll be watching the run game closely. Last year the Vikings really struggled to generate consistent gains on the ground (they ranked near the bottom in rushing yards/game and I believe their average yards/rush was also pretty low). Cook did have some highlight reel runs, but unfortunately those proved more the exception than the rule, and the lack of consistent production on the ground put the offense into more unfavorable 2nd and 3rd down situations than a top-performing offense ideally sees throughout a season. While the run game is no longer the focus of the offense as it was under Zimmer, the Vikings will need to demonstrate they can take advantage if a defense stacks to stop the pass or is overly aggressive in the pass rush. When the Vikings choose to run, can they pick up the 4+ yards per carry (ideally 4.5+) that gives them confidence they can run it effectively? Here's hoping Mattison and the other backs along with the offensive line can do a better job than the backups at those position did during the preseason in the run game.
- Also on the topic of the Vikings offense, the team appears loaded at WR and TE and Cousins should be able to find open receivers both in this upcoming game and all year if he has time. This is probably the deepest pool of receivers among the TEs and WRs I can remember the Vikings having in a long time.
- Biggest question in this game for both sides, and the question I think will decide the outcome, is the matchup of the Buc offense against the Vikings defense. Both have some big question marks heading into the season and both have a lot to prove. Can Baker Mayfield effectively lead the Buc offense? He's had a spotty career thus far. He's certainly capable of playing at a high level on any given Sunday, but he's also capable of making some truly poor decisions. Sometimes he does both in the same game. I think he will be a huge factor on Sunday. Another big question mark is the Vikings defense. Can the Vikings shut down what appears to be an anemic Buc run game? The Vikings defense struggled all year with consistently defending the run, especially on outside runs. With Tomlinson gone, does that issue expand to include interior runs, or can the Vikings get that under control? If they struggle against the Bucs, that bodes ill for the rest of the season and teams that have better rushing games IMHO. Likewise, can the Vikings revamped secondary defend a Buc passing game that while not amazing certainly has some punch. Lastly, can the Vikings defense simply find more ways to get off the field more consistently? The defense wasn't great at that last year, at least not for full games, and were terrible at it in certain situations where a stop would have done wonders to avert so many single score games and the need for comebacks to win.
I suspect this game will be pretty close. I think the Buc defense will keep the Vikings offense largely in check. Not off the board necessarily, but will limit scoring. On the flip side, I think Mayfield is going to really struggle against the looks Flores is going to throw at him, and the Vikings have enough speed in the LB corps that Mayfield will be pressured consistently. Couple that pressure with good run defense and I think the Bucs will also struggle to score.
I think the game ends up tied late in the 4th, and as much as I don't want to envision yet another one score game, I think the winner will be a late Vikings field goal.
Final score will be 17-14 with the Vikings coming out on top.
