Lions Coming to Town
Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:44 pm
Man, I really don't like games like this upcoming game.
A winless, seemingly hapless team comes to Minnesota after suffering some close and brutal losses. Its a team with a lot of changes, too, both in terms of players and coaches, so any notion the Vikings have a good handle on their strengths and weaknesses is probably not as valid as it might otherwise be. Its a team with literally nothing to lose and nobody is picking them to win.
On the other hand there are the Vikings, who still apparently believe they are a good team despite what the record says. Historically, the Vikings seem to take the week off mentally when they're facing what they believe to be an inferior opponent under Zimmer. Of course, the players and coaches stand up in front of the media and say all the right things, but there is this nagging atmosphere of contempt lingering that suggests most of the players and coaches feel they can ease up a bit, especially with the teams looming on the schedule after this game.
So even though the Vikings are 1-3 and the Lions are 0-4 heading into this game, I could easily see this being a trap game for the Vikings. A still somehow overconfident Vikings team shows up less prepared and motivated than a hungry, almost desperate, winless Lions team, with a strangely predictable result. I think this is even more likely because the Vikings can tell themselves how good the Browns were, and that while the Browns simply were more talented and outplayed them, the Lions are not more talented and not likely to outplay them. It all adds up to a game that is going to be much, much closer than it otherwise should be, and in my view at least, there is a very real chance the Vikings are staring at 1-4 when its all over.
Apart from that, the Vikings offense has a favorable matchup against the Lions defense, at least statistically. The Lions have not stopped the run well and gave up big chunks of change on the ground to the Bears. That should bode well for the Vikings, especially if Cook is healthy, and if the Vikings can run then the Vikings should be able to pass as well. As in all their games thus far, much depends on the play of the OL. If the OL that showed up in the first half of the game against the Bengals or every drive sans the first drive against the Browns rears its ugly head again in this game, all bets are off. If Cook/Mattison struggle to run, Cousins will likely struggle to pass as well. If the competent OL that played the rest of the games thus far shows up, the Vikings should be able to move and score. Absent the factors I first listed, I'd predict the latter OL and offense will be what we see on Sunday. Unfortunately, I think there is a very good chance the ineffective OL shows up in this one, at least for a significant portion of it. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Vikings supposedly good offense go long stretches where they struggle to move the ball and score yet again.
Defensively, the Vikings can't afford to sleep on the Lions either. The Lions don't exactly have what one would call an explosive offense. They are, however, very streaky and have shown a knack for lighting up opposing defenses in bursts of scoring. Goff is the type of QB who can definitely hurt a defense if he's allowed to sit back and figure things out. The Vikings defensive line is going to have to get pressure on him and disrupt his timing, as well as start to play consistently better against the run. And no more leaving wide open deep receivers. If Mayfield were accurate the Browns would have had more chunk receiving plays than they ended up with. Goff will be more accurate on those routes, so if the Vikings continue to leave them open, they're going to pay for that against Goff and the Lions.
This game is going to be much closer than it should be. I picked the Vikings in a close one against the Browns last week due to HFA. I feel like the Vikings should win this one as well, largely for the same reason, but I know this team a little too well to be confident.
I'm going to give this one to the Vikings, barely...
Vikings - 21
Lions - 20
A winless, seemingly hapless team comes to Minnesota after suffering some close and brutal losses. Its a team with a lot of changes, too, both in terms of players and coaches, so any notion the Vikings have a good handle on their strengths and weaknesses is probably not as valid as it might otherwise be. Its a team with literally nothing to lose and nobody is picking them to win.
On the other hand there are the Vikings, who still apparently believe they are a good team despite what the record says. Historically, the Vikings seem to take the week off mentally when they're facing what they believe to be an inferior opponent under Zimmer. Of course, the players and coaches stand up in front of the media and say all the right things, but there is this nagging atmosphere of contempt lingering that suggests most of the players and coaches feel they can ease up a bit, especially with the teams looming on the schedule after this game.
So even though the Vikings are 1-3 and the Lions are 0-4 heading into this game, I could easily see this being a trap game for the Vikings. A still somehow overconfident Vikings team shows up less prepared and motivated than a hungry, almost desperate, winless Lions team, with a strangely predictable result. I think this is even more likely because the Vikings can tell themselves how good the Browns were, and that while the Browns simply were more talented and outplayed them, the Lions are not more talented and not likely to outplay them. It all adds up to a game that is going to be much, much closer than it otherwise should be, and in my view at least, there is a very real chance the Vikings are staring at 1-4 when its all over.
Apart from that, the Vikings offense has a favorable matchup against the Lions defense, at least statistically. The Lions have not stopped the run well and gave up big chunks of change on the ground to the Bears. That should bode well for the Vikings, especially if Cook is healthy, and if the Vikings can run then the Vikings should be able to pass as well. As in all their games thus far, much depends on the play of the OL. If the OL that showed up in the first half of the game against the Bengals or every drive sans the first drive against the Browns rears its ugly head again in this game, all bets are off. If Cook/Mattison struggle to run, Cousins will likely struggle to pass as well. If the competent OL that played the rest of the games thus far shows up, the Vikings should be able to move and score. Absent the factors I first listed, I'd predict the latter OL and offense will be what we see on Sunday. Unfortunately, I think there is a very good chance the ineffective OL shows up in this one, at least for a significant portion of it. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Vikings supposedly good offense go long stretches where they struggle to move the ball and score yet again.
Defensively, the Vikings can't afford to sleep on the Lions either. The Lions don't exactly have what one would call an explosive offense. They are, however, very streaky and have shown a knack for lighting up opposing defenses in bursts of scoring. Goff is the type of QB who can definitely hurt a defense if he's allowed to sit back and figure things out. The Vikings defensive line is going to have to get pressure on him and disrupt his timing, as well as start to play consistently better against the run. And no more leaving wide open deep receivers. If Mayfield were accurate the Browns would have had more chunk receiving plays than they ended up with. Goff will be more accurate on those routes, so if the Vikings continue to leave them open, they're going to pay for that against Goff and the Lions.
This game is going to be much closer than it should be. I picked the Vikings in a close one against the Browns last week due to HFA. I feel like the Vikings should win this one as well, largely for the same reason, but I know this team a little too well to be confident.
I'm going to give this one to the Vikings, barely...
Vikings - 21
Lions - 20
I would trade Dalvin for a ham sandwich and let Mattison start