How to Beat the Packers
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:33 pm
May as well get started on the pregame thread for the upcoming Monday nighter against the Packers.
First, it bears repeating that the Packers, at least statistically, are in the middle of the league on both sides of the ball. They are statistically worse than the Vikings in every aspect of offense and defense, be it passing or rushing or scoring. They've scored less and given up more than the Vikings by a large margin (Packers are +47 on the year while the Vikings are +119). The Packers are 11-3 and in sole possession of the NFC North and will likely win the division regardless of the outcome of the upcoming MNF game due to them getting the Lions for the final game, but this is just not a dominant or intimidating opponent. The Packers are a team that has done just enough to win in the majority of their games, and when they have lost, with the exception of their loss to the Eagles they've gotten crushed. They've been on the plus side of the "bad breaks" all year with multiple instances where they benefited from very questionable calls. This is an opponent, in short, that by all external indicators should have 7-8 wins and be scratching for a wild card and not in the driver's seat for a division title and a home playoff game.
With all of that said, the Packers are a dangerous team. Their offense is hugely inconsistent, but when they are moving the ball well, they can pile up a lot of points quickly. This tends to happen early in their wins, though. They seem to come out of the gate strong or not at all, so the first key to the upcoming game for the Vikings is denying the Packers early. In the earlier game between the two teams the Vikings conceded 21 points in just over the first quarter. While the bleeding was stanched after that, the hole they had dug for themselves proved to be too steep to climb out of. That can't happen again. The Vikings defense must hold in the opening quarter.
In order to hold, the Vikings must do two things well. First, they have to contain the Packer run game. I thought the Vikings defense did a fantastic job of containing the Chargers and Lions run game on 1st and 2nd downs. That forced both offenses into the type of 3rd down situations that Mike Zimmer's defense thrived on in 2017 and 2018. Sure, the Packers may go to the air on 1st and 2nd downs. That is possible. But more than likely they'll see if they can run it, and the Vikings must step up to that challenge and limit those early down yards on the ground.
The second thing the Vikings defense must do is get pressure on Rodgers. Rodgers is going to wing the ball. He's done it his whole career and even more so this season. The Vikings have had coverage issues all year against the deep ball, so I fully expect the Packers to be eager to test them deep as well, probably early and often and even on 1st and 2nd down. But if the Vikings do manage to get the Packers into 3rd-and-long, Rodgers has to be contained and pressured. In the two lopsided losses the Packers had this year against the Chargers and 49ers, 3rd down pass pressure was key to disrupting Rodgers and limiting big plays downfield by the Packers. Don't let Rodgers slide in the pocket. Make him escape out the back. Do not let him start running. Collapse the pocket and get him under consistent duress, and the coverage issues down the field won't be nearly as big a factor as they will otherwise be if Rodgers gets time.
On defense, the Packers are gamblers, especially in the secondary. They are aggressive. They want to come up the field and be disruptive. Their DBs like to jump routes and be unpredictable. They are not fundamentally sound in terms of technique, though. They will miss tackles and drop assignments. Their gambling nature is high-risk, high reward, so the way to beat that is to maximize the risk. The Vikings have an embarrassment of offensive talent. Even if Cook is not able to play, the Vikings have Mattison and Boone and Abdullah at RB, 3 TEs who can both block and catch, and with Thielen back and Bisi Johnson playing as well as he has, 3 solid WRs. The offensive line has been pretty solid. The QB has played very well. If I'm Mike Zimmer and Kevin Stefanski, I want to be the ones dictating the game to the Packer defense. I do that by using their aggressiveness against them. I line up and call plays that look like ones I've run before and ones the Packers will expect, but then I break a WR off deep instead of short, or I throw in some misdirection. I try to goad the Packers into gambling. I want them to do it, because my offense will be ready for it. I'm the coach and offense that wants to run up the score early.
If there is a single key to this upcoming game, it's going to be to avoid execution mistakes. The offense can't turn it over or hand the Packers short fields. The defense has to be disciplined, especially on 3rd down and get off the field. They can't afford to hand the Packers a fresh set of downs they didn't earn.
First, it bears repeating that the Packers, at least statistically, are in the middle of the league on both sides of the ball. They are statistically worse than the Vikings in every aspect of offense and defense, be it passing or rushing or scoring. They've scored less and given up more than the Vikings by a large margin (Packers are +47 on the year while the Vikings are +119). The Packers are 11-3 and in sole possession of the NFC North and will likely win the division regardless of the outcome of the upcoming MNF game due to them getting the Lions for the final game, but this is just not a dominant or intimidating opponent. The Packers are a team that has done just enough to win in the majority of their games, and when they have lost, with the exception of their loss to the Eagles they've gotten crushed. They've been on the plus side of the "bad breaks" all year with multiple instances where they benefited from very questionable calls. This is an opponent, in short, that by all external indicators should have 7-8 wins and be scratching for a wild card and not in the driver's seat for a division title and a home playoff game.
With all of that said, the Packers are a dangerous team. Their offense is hugely inconsistent, but when they are moving the ball well, they can pile up a lot of points quickly. This tends to happen early in their wins, though. They seem to come out of the gate strong or not at all, so the first key to the upcoming game for the Vikings is denying the Packers early. In the earlier game between the two teams the Vikings conceded 21 points in just over the first quarter. While the bleeding was stanched after that, the hole they had dug for themselves proved to be too steep to climb out of. That can't happen again. The Vikings defense must hold in the opening quarter.
In order to hold, the Vikings must do two things well. First, they have to contain the Packer run game. I thought the Vikings defense did a fantastic job of containing the Chargers and Lions run game on 1st and 2nd downs. That forced both offenses into the type of 3rd down situations that Mike Zimmer's defense thrived on in 2017 and 2018. Sure, the Packers may go to the air on 1st and 2nd downs. That is possible. But more than likely they'll see if they can run it, and the Vikings must step up to that challenge and limit those early down yards on the ground.
The second thing the Vikings defense must do is get pressure on Rodgers. Rodgers is going to wing the ball. He's done it his whole career and even more so this season. The Vikings have had coverage issues all year against the deep ball, so I fully expect the Packers to be eager to test them deep as well, probably early and often and even on 1st and 2nd down. But if the Vikings do manage to get the Packers into 3rd-and-long, Rodgers has to be contained and pressured. In the two lopsided losses the Packers had this year against the Chargers and 49ers, 3rd down pass pressure was key to disrupting Rodgers and limiting big plays downfield by the Packers. Don't let Rodgers slide in the pocket. Make him escape out the back. Do not let him start running. Collapse the pocket and get him under consistent duress, and the coverage issues down the field won't be nearly as big a factor as they will otherwise be if Rodgers gets time.
On defense, the Packers are gamblers, especially in the secondary. They are aggressive. They want to come up the field and be disruptive. Their DBs like to jump routes and be unpredictable. They are not fundamentally sound in terms of technique, though. They will miss tackles and drop assignments. Their gambling nature is high-risk, high reward, so the way to beat that is to maximize the risk. The Vikings have an embarrassment of offensive talent. Even if Cook is not able to play, the Vikings have Mattison and Boone and Abdullah at RB, 3 TEs who can both block and catch, and with Thielen back and Bisi Johnson playing as well as he has, 3 solid WRs. The offensive line has been pretty solid. The QB has played very well. If I'm Mike Zimmer and Kevin Stefanski, I want to be the ones dictating the game to the Packer defense. I do that by using their aggressiveness against them. I line up and call plays that look like ones I've run before and ones the Packers will expect, but then I break a WR off deep instead of short, or I throw in some misdirection. I try to goad the Packers into gambling. I want them to do it, because my offense will be ready for it. I'm the coach and offense that wants to run up the score early.
If there is a single key to this upcoming game, it's going to be to avoid execution mistakes. The offense can't turn it over or hand the Packers short fields. The defense has to be disciplined, especially on 3rd down and get off the field. They can't afford to hand the Packers a fresh set of downs they didn't earn.
