Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections
Posted: Thu May 09, 2019 2:52 pm
With FAs dying down and the draft over with, we now have a pretty good idea of who the potential starting 22. There could be injuries or late signings/cuts before the season begins, but for the most part, we know who will be on the team Game 1.
That means we can also start projecting out offensive and defensive rankings based on the additions and subtractions this offseason. It is way too early for projecting wins and losses at this point, too much depends on how good our competition is, but I believe we should be able to get a good gage at the potential our offense and defense have, good or bad.
Defensive Projections (3rd in scoring efficiency in 2018):
Key Additions
A healthy Hughes
Subtractions that may hurt the Vikings in 2019 (helped the team with their play)
Richardson
Tom Johnson (very underrated)
Subtractions that will likely have no impact on 2019
Sendejo (Harris was better)
I will start with the defense because I think this is the easiest to project. IF Griffen comes back mentally healthy and the rest of the D remains healthy, this defense has a chance to be as good as last season. Griffen, in my opinion, is the difference maker this season, and the D will live and die by his ability to get after the QB. With Richardson and Johnson gone, and Stephen being more of a run stopper, if we don’t get more of a rush from Everson, our pass rush will be down significantly from last season.
Things go right projection: Top 5 in scoring for the 3rd straight season.
Things go wrong: 14th
I just don’t see a huge difference from last year to this year, with one exception: I don’t think they will start off as poorly as they did in 2018. They were really bad to start the season, and ended up top 3, mostly because Zimmer made some overly complicated changes that weren’t working. I don’t think he will do that again. Age might become a factor with Joseph, Smith, Rhodes and Griffen getting up there in years, but I think we have at least another year of good play out of those guys. They decline and the worst I see it getting is a decline to 2015 levels.
Offensive Projections (22nd in scoring efficiency in 2018):
Key Additions
Kline
Mattison
Smith Jr
Samia
Bradbury
Stefanski/Kubiak
Subtractions that may hurt the Vikings in 2019:
Murray
Sherels' punt returns
Subtractions that may be a positive for the Vikings in 2019:
Compton
Remmers
Offensively, there is a ton of room for improvement. Kubiak has a track record for coaching good offenses, and his addition alone has the potential to make the offense average (take them from 22nd to 16th). Bradbury should be an upgrade over Elf (he would almost have to be) and I believe LG will be an upgrade with either Elf or Samia over Compton. RG could very well be a push with Kline, but there is potential for improvement there as well. With an improved line and run game, that takes our offense from 16th to 10th. The difference makers will be Smith and Mattison. Murray was bad in short yardage last season, and the Vikings need a 4th option when teams take away Diggs and Theilen. If the two skill position rookies step up big, this could be a fun season.
Things go right projection: 9th in scoring
Things go wrong: 22nd again
Spielman has been absolutely horrible at finding oline in the draft, and I really have no reason to believe he suddenly figured out what college players project out to be good guards in the NFL with Samia. However, it would be very difficult to mess up drafting the clear consensus #1 Center in the draft, so Bradbury should be good. His addition alone should open things up in the run game, limiting the number of passes Cousins throws, and thus limiting the mistakes he can make. 3rd down conversions will be better with Mattison being big in short yardage, extending drives and possibly improving our red zone efficiency. All of that with the best WR tandem in the NFL and a good passing QB, should be enough to make this offense top 10. If Kline is not an upgrade, Elf doesn’t transition well to LG and if Rick continues to strikeout at guard with Samia, it will likely be 2018 all over again.
That means we can also start projecting out offensive and defensive rankings based on the additions and subtractions this offseason. It is way too early for projecting wins and losses at this point, too much depends on how good our competition is, but I believe we should be able to get a good gage at the potential our offense and defense have, good or bad.
Defensive Projections (3rd in scoring efficiency in 2018):
Key Additions
A healthy Hughes
Subtractions that may hurt the Vikings in 2019 (helped the team with their play)
Richardson
Tom Johnson (very underrated)
Subtractions that will likely have no impact on 2019
Sendejo (Harris was better)
I will start with the defense because I think this is the easiest to project. IF Griffen comes back mentally healthy and the rest of the D remains healthy, this defense has a chance to be as good as last season. Griffen, in my opinion, is the difference maker this season, and the D will live and die by his ability to get after the QB. With Richardson and Johnson gone, and Stephen being more of a run stopper, if we don’t get more of a rush from Everson, our pass rush will be down significantly from last season.
Things go right projection: Top 5 in scoring for the 3rd straight season.
Things go wrong: 14th
I just don’t see a huge difference from last year to this year, with one exception: I don’t think they will start off as poorly as they did in 2018. They were really bad to start the season, and ended up top 3, mostly because Zimmer made some overly complicated changes that weren’t working. I don’t think he will do that again. Age might become a factor with Joseph, Smith, Rhodes and Griffen getting up there in years, but I think we have at least another year of good play out of those guys. They decline and the worst I see it getting is a decline to 2015 levels.
Offensive Projections (22nd in scoring efficiency in 2018):
Key Additions
Kline
Mattison
Smith Jr
Samia
Bradbury
Stefanski/Kubiak
Subtractions that may hurt the Vikings in 2019:
Murray
Sherels' punt returns
Subtractions that may be a positive for the Vikings in 2019:
Compton
Remmers
Offensively, there is a ton of room for improvement. Kubiak has a track record for coaching good offenses, and his addition alone has the potential to make the offense average (take them from 22nd to 16th). Bradbury should be an upgrade over Elf (he would almost have to be) and I believe LG will be an upgrade with either Elf or Samia over Compton. RG could very well be a push with Kline, but there is potential for improvement there as well. With an improved line and run game, that takes our offense from 16th to 10th. The difference makers will be Smith and Mattison. Murray was bad in short yardage last season, and the Vikings need a 4th option when teams take away Diggs and Theilen. If the two skill position rookies step up big, this could be a fun season.
Things go right projection: 9th in scoring
Things go wrong: 22nd again
Spielman has been absolutely horrible at finding oline in the draft, and I really have no reason to believe he suddenly figured out what college players project out to be good guards in the NFL with Samia. However, it would be very difficult to mess up drafting the clear consensus #1 Center in the draft, so Bradbury should be good. His addition alone should open things up in the run game, limiting the number of passes Cousins throws, and thus limiting the mistakes he can make. 3rd down conversions will be better with Mattison being big in short yardage, extending drives and possibly improving our red zone efficiency. All of that with the best WR tandem in the NFL and a good passing QB, should be enough to make this offense top 10. If Kline is not an upgrade, Elf doesn’t transition well to LG and if Rick continues to strikeout at guard with Samia, it will likely be 2018 all over again.