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I'd define "the next step" to be something around 3,250-3,500 yards passing, 24 TDs, a completion percentage over 60 percent and 10-12 picks. If he does that, are the Vikings a top-3 team in the conference? They'd certainly have the talent to be. Their offense would be pretty darn tough to stop, and while their defense doesn't create enough turnovers, that pass rush can solve a lot of problems. The conference will be tough at the top, with San Francisco, Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay (the top four teams from a year ago) all with high hopes, but if Ponder takes the mythical "next step," there's no reason the Vikings can't tangle with those teams. Much of this year really does hinge on Ponder, and we'll talk plenty about his progress.

Now, if Ponder had the kind of season I mentioned in the chat, I doubt many Vikings fans would complain about it. But is Ponder capable of that kind of a jump in Year 3?

Last year, he completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,935 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ponder threw 483 times and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, so to get to 3,250 would require Ponder to average 6.7 yards on the same number of attempts. That figure would have still tied him for 25th in the league last year, and a 7.25 yards-per-attempt average -- the figure necessary to get him to 3,500 yards -- would have put Ponder right around 14th in the league last year. He figures to get more help after the catch from Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson than he had a year ago, when his best open-field threat (Percy Harvin) was only available for half the season, but Ponder would have to be confident enough to drive the ball downfield a little more often than he was a year ago.

Already, Ponder's 18 touchdown passes last year were the second-highest number by a quarterback in Adrian Peterson's career, trailing Brett Favre's 33 in 2009.

With something approaching above-average quarterbacking, the Vikings' offense should be formidable, and they have the makings of a solid defense. That's why so much attention is being paid to Ponder this season, and why we'll continue to talk about him so often in our conversations to come.

MelanieMFunk wrote: ...interesting. I bet Peterson misses Favre. I do some days.

Mothman wrote:Yes, this is another thread about Christian Ponder. I'm creating it specifically to call attention to an excellent piece Ben Goessling posted on ESPN's site today as a follow-up to a chat about the Vikings. Here's a link to it:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... out-ponder

Apparently, the last question Goessling addressed in his chat was: "If Ponder does indeed take the next step are they a top 3 team in the NFC?". Here's how he began expanding on the question (the rest is at the link and is worth reading):
He goes on to talk about red zone passing and comparisons Spielman has made between Ponder's numbers and the numbers Eli Manning and Drew Brees had through 2 seasons. It really is worth reading and I think Goessling provides both a reasonable idea of what would constitute "the next step" for Ponder and what the Vikings QB needs to do to get there. Can we please try to keep the discussion in this thread reasonable too?

Purple Jesus wrote:Adrian is going to do his thing regardless. So, yes this year is going to ride or die based on our QB's production (or lack thereof).
I would love to see Ponder take another step in his progression. Especially a big step. Baby step period should be over with by now. We need him to go to a whole new level.
He has the talented help in place. So this year is pretty much what Ponder will be in the NFL. The preseason has been tough to watch thus far so that has me a little nervous for the start of the season, but I think maybe they don't really want expose all their tricks in the preseason and there is still timing and gelling of this group to be had. I just hope they can do enough to stay in the games for the first few weeks and see if we can get rolling. And if so it should be smooth sailing, if not, then damn! it's going to be a long year.

I know I just kinda rambled on here....

mansquatch wrote:To start off: Gosseling's analysis is the closest thing I've read to my current take on the Vikings in 2013.

I would contend that on yardage, if Harvin hadn't gone down half way through the season Ponder would have hit at least the 3250 threshold last year. TDs are a different story. To get to 3500 yards and 25 TDs, Ponder would need to avg 35.31 more yards per game and 0.44 more TD per game. I don't see 35 yards as being that big of a hurdle for him to overcome. That is asking for probably 3-5 more positive plays over a game. Given the improvements at WR this should be rather attainable.

TDs are harder to predict, but I agree with Gosseling's analysis.

GBFavreFan wrote:The bigger question is how long will the Vikings wait for Ponder to take that "next step"? One more season? Two more? 8 games? If Ponder has failed to improve or shows miniscule or insignificant improvement, how much longer would the team keep Christian Ponder in the huddle?

Already, Ponder's 18 touchdown passes last year were the second-highest number by a quarterback in Adrian Peterson's career, trailing Brett Favre's 33 in 2009.

GBFavreFan wrote:Problem is, we are one of the few teams capable of making the playoffs with below average QB play. So what happens if Ponder has another Rorshach test-like season again, and we have a winning record or make the playoffs? I worry the Vikings will return to that rut where we are one QB away from being an elite team, and we stubbornly stick with Ponder because his completion percentage is "good" and his actual number of interceptions aren't that high and we spend all day patting ourselves on the back that we "made the playoffs two years in a row!" (and eliminated immediately two times in a row.) If Ponder fails to take that next step will the Vikings move on from him, or will they take a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach to replacing Ponder with someone better?

Mothman wrote: The only thing I miss about Favre is watching the Vikings sack or intercept him when he was a Packer.

mansquatch wrote:Really it ultimately comes down to the same thing we've been saying on here since probably Janaury