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How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolution
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:08 pm
by dead_poet
Impressive article. Well worth the read. While my view on Frazier is still "the jury is out" after reading this I'd be lying if I didn't think this guy would be one exciting coach with the playmakers we have (and will hopefully draft).
Oregon's next fourth-and-short came late in the second quarter when the Ducks faced a fourth-and-2 on their own 34-yard line. Kelly went for it again, and this time Kenjon Barner ran for six yards and a first down. Oregon went on to a 16-play scoring drive that ate up all but 28 seconds of the first half and totally deflated Arizona's defense. Oregon went on to score 36 points in the second half en route to a 49-0 win.
Those fourth down calls epitomize Kelly's aggressiveness but what the average football fan doesn't realize is that Chip's play-calls (the fourth down tries, fake punts, two-point conversions, etc.) are almost always the correct mathematical decision. Like Paul DePodesta and Billy Beane did in baseball, Kelly's genius comes from exploiting arithmetic that other coaches are too naïve to acknowledge.
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-act ... lution-nfl
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:01 pm
by BGM
Was thinking something similar when I read that. Funny how the article mentions BB in NE doing some of these things with the Pats. Certainly would be HUGELY exciting!
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:26 am
by GoldenBear91
I'd love to see it tried at the NFL level.
The advantage for college strategy is you can have a talent overload. I would guess that you could argue the Ducks have more talent than most teams they play and that is why they are winning games. Not purely Chip Kelly's genius.
Living in Chicago land I know that people would have a recent loss coming to mind against the Seahawks. The bears went for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal, the bears failed to convert and it ended up costing them. There is always more than one play that decides a game, but it's hard to ignore the fact that having 3 pts more would give you the win instead of a tie that leads to an overtime loss.
Interesting strategies. I don't think it will catch on, but I think it would be fun to watch at the NFL level.
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 2:13 pm
by dead_poet
Another very interesting article on Kelly's offense (and Patriots' similarities). Worth the read.
With 1 word, Patriots’ no-huddle an NFL marvel
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/ ... story.html
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:25 pm
by Cliff
Looks like we'll find out if he's the next big thing or not. NFL.com report he's about to sign with the Browns.
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:03 pm
by S197
Cliff wrote:Looks like we'll find out if he's the next big thing or not. NFL.com report he's about to sign with the Browns.
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 1:25 am
by BGM
And there goes Chip Kelly's NFL career. Wow. However, didn't Belichick get his start (ignominious as it was) with the Browns?
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:44 pm
by glg
Cliff wrote:Looks like we'll find out if he's the next big thing or not. NFL.com report he's about to sign with the Browns.
I saw a short bit with Schlereth the other day. He said that at least as is, he doesn't think the Oregon system will work, but he thought Kelly is smart enough to adapt his system to the NFL. He showed a few of their "big" plays that worked completely due to missed tackles that simply wouldn't happen in the NFL, but with adjustments to blocking schemes, could be adapted.
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 12:29 pm
by Cliff
Looks like NFL.com jumped the gun.
Chip Kelly's brief flirtation with the NFL has ended, with Ian Rapoport reporting he'll return to Oregon, disappointing the Eagles and Browns in the process.
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:06 pm
by Cliff
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:02 pm
by Mothman
It will be interesting to see how he approaches the NFL game and how much of what he did at Oregon gets adapted or changed. I doubt the "moneyball" style described in the article at the top of this thread will work in the NFL but aspects of it make sense.
So, I'll place the over/under on how long Kelly coaches the Eagles at 3 seasons. Will he be Philly's coach after 3 years? Will he quickly bolt back to the college ranks like Saban and Petrino?
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:36 pm
by Mothman
80 PurplePride 84 wrote:Train wreck waiting to happen, IMO, unless he changes his offensive style. I hope it's the former given that I detest the Eagles.
LOL! Yeah, I wouldn't mind it if this move resulted in the Eagles crashing and burning. I don't like them either.
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:30 am
by dead_poet
Mothman wrote:
LOL! Yeah, I wouldn't mind it if this move resulted in the Eagles crashing and burning. I don't like them either.
If he doesn't go for Vick, how about this juicy storyline/Frankenstein experiment/Mayan prophecy:
Tim Tebow.
Eh?
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:49 am
by Mothman
dead_poet wrote:
If he doesn't go for Vick, how about this juicy storyline/Frankenstein experiment/Mayan prophecy:
Tim Tebow.
Eh?
It would be interesting!
Re: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolu
Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:13 am
by glg
dead_poet wrote:Tim Tebow.
Why? Doesn't Kelly's system require at least being able to hit the broad side of a barn?
