Jared Allen (and other kvetches)

[Texas Vike]

I have no doubt he can be good, not no doubt he will be good. There's a difference.

Mothman, i like reading your posts on Ponder. Being a skeptic is the easy path to take. You give him due credit and make measured statements about his noticeable improvements. The fact of the matter is he HAS been better this year, especially in "hurry up" mode (quotes because the Vikings don't exactly hurry in the final 2 minutes, but that's another issue...). I think he's also got some serious leadership skills. For example, through the press this week he is taking responsibility for not getting TE Carlson the ball. To me, that's impressive. It shows he's secure enough to take that bullet from the press since he knows Carlson just needs a nod of confidence coming off his injury... or at least, the last thing he needs is for every Vikings fan to be scrutinizing his every move, wondering when he'll earn his 25 million pay check.

Before I come to the conclusion that Ponder doesn't have "it" I want to see the Vikes add some real WR help and for Musgrave to open up the playbook w/ downfield passing (during the entire game and consistently). I think he might have the skills and moxie, it will just take time. Then again, a glance at the upcoming schedule is very frightening. We lost to a depleted Colts team? How are we going to do vs. SF, DET, WASH, TB, CHI, GB?

[Texas Vike]

I've been a big fan and proponent of the all-around play of Jared Allen. Yes, all-around play. Defensive ends just aren't going to make 100 tackles a year. Half the plays are run the other way. He's dropped back into coverage on zone blitzes and made interceptions. He's played well for the most part in the running game. And he's of course made sacks.

But with that being said, I thought his actions yesterday were inexcusable.

The hit out of bounds ... c'mon sports fans. That was clearly a penalty. You can't do that, you certainly can't do that to a quarterback, and you especially can't do that and then turn around to whine to the officials. We gave the Colts new life with a roughing the kicker penalty ... I can't find fault with an aggressive attempt to block a kick and make a play. But then Allen, in the same drive, gave the Colts new life again with his egregious blunder. He had the look of a guy who was frustrated and worried about his sack stats -- and the fact that he didn't have any yet.

I'm still a fan. But I'm pretty disappointed in my guy right now. You're a veteran and an all-pro, Mr. Allen. How about you play like it?

And before we totally derail the thread... back to Jared Allen. This is a solid take J. Kapp11. Am I remembering right that Allen starts slow in general? Maybe his off-season regimen is soft? I hope he gets things going again, because his 'frustration penalty' really cost us big time. It was a moment of ego... I agree with you.

[Mothman]

Mothman, i like reading your posts on Ponder. Being a skeptic is the easy path to take. You give him due credit and make measured statements about his noticeable improvements.

Thank you.

The fact of the matter is he HAS been better this year, especially in "hurry up" mode (quotes because the Vikings don't exactly hurry in the final 2 minutes, but that's another issue...). I think he's also got some serious leadership skills. For example, through the press this week he is taking responsibility for not getting TE Carlson the ball. To me, that's impressive. It shows he's secure enough to take that bullet from the press since he knows Carlson just needs a nod of confidence coming off his injury... or at least, the last thing he needs is for every Vikings fan to be scrutinizing his every move, wondering when he'll earn his 25 million pay check.

I didn't know about ponders comments regarding Carlson but I agree with you: it's cool that he's willing to "take that bullet" and it's another sign )along with the leadership he's demonstrated late in the past two games) that ponder might have what it takes to succeed.

Before I come to the conclusion that Ponder doesn't have "it" I want to see the Vikes add some real WR help and for Musgrave to open up the playbook w/ downfield passing (during the entire game and consistently). I think he might have the skills and moxie, it will just take time. Then again, a glance at the upcoming schedule is very frightening. We lost to a depleted Colts team? How are we going to do vs. SF, DET, WASH, TB, CHI, GB?

I think there are two reasons we aren't seeing more downfield passing throughout games. First, the Viking don't have much in the way of downfield threats. Hopefully, Simpson's return will help with that (although he may be rusty at first). Second, I'm not convinced the OL has improved in pass protection and Musgrave may be worried about that. Tom Pelissero touched on this issue today in his film review of the Vikes/Colts game:

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Brea ... 091812?t=2

That only eight of his 39 throws (20.5%, including those wiped out by penalties) were targeted at least 14 yards downfield is a reflection not only of the trouble receivers had getting open, but the way protection broke down on numerous occasions.

At least one play was designed to hit Rudolph up the seam off a deep play-action fake, but the protection broke down too quickly.

The upcoming schedule IS frightening but sometimes matchups dictate losses as much as opponents so maybe the Vikes will match up better with some of those teams. It's a slim hope, I know, but their OL really struggled against Mathis, Redding and the rest of the Colts d-line. Redding was especially troublesome. They had trouble with the speed of Avery and Wayne at WR too and Luck's athleticism enabled him to avoid some potential sacks that some other QBs might not have been able to escape (although RG3 will be an even bigger challenge in that department and several of those other teams have QBs with good mobility.

[VikingLord]

Dan,

Agree with your thoughts 100%.

Allen wanted a sack and that's why he went for Luck near the sideline. It was a selfish play on his part. I've watched enough teams (especially the late '80's Vikings) to know where selfish, stat-seeking play by vets gets a team.

As for Ponder, he has all the makings of a career backup. The more I watch him, the more convinced of it I am. It's not that Ponder can't play, but in comparing him to Luck, for example, the difference is already clear. Ponder is a middling player. I'm not sure how else to put that. The way he throws, the way he moves, the way he runs the offense, all average. Sure, he has a very high completion percentage, but so what? Most of that is because of all the short, safe throws he makes. And while people will point out that he has no INTs, he should have at least 3 so far, including one that would likely have been returned for a score. He's also had 2 fumbles on routine sacks, both of which were lost.

Luck, on the other hand, sees the field and senses the pressure. Luck made some rookie mistakes too, but he made up for those with positive and authorative plays. Seeing, and hitting, Wayne near the end of the first half was the sort of play I doubt Ponder would be able to see or make. Had Ponder been forced to roll the ball would be down and he'd be looking to run in that situation. Luck made a couple of other throws that I just don't see Ponder even attempting in the same situation.

It's too bad Ponder was taken as high as he was and forced to start as fast as he was. I think he could have a career arc similar to Brad Johnson had he also had the luxury of slowly absorbing the pro game like Johnson did. Unfortunately, what I see out there is a player who is becomingly increasingly skittish. Pair that with a lack of exceptional physical tools and you have the makings of a flameout. I hope I'm wrong. I probably would have said the same things about Alex Smith a few years ago, so maybe it's just the coach/team. Once Smith got a better coach and defense he stopped pressing and has played very well. But even there, I don't think Ponder brings the same raw abilities to the table as Smith.

I guess we'll learn more this weekend.

[Mothman]

Luck, on the other hand, sees the field and senses the pressure. Luck made some rookie mistakes too, but he made up for those with positive and authorative plays. Seeing, and hitting, Wayne near the end of the first half was the sort of play I doubt Ponder would be able to see or make.

He's made those kind of plays. For example, on 4th and 13, Ponder threw a 39 yard TD strike to Harvin against Atlanta last year.

Had Ponder been forced to roll the ball would be down and he'd be looking to run in that situation. Luck made a couple of other throws that I just don't see Ponder even attempting in the same situation.

When pressure forced Ponder out of the pocket last Sunday, pursuit was quick to find him and he had little to no opportunity to make a throw downfield. When pressure forced Luck out, he often had the time to actually throw.

On one play, when Ponder was forced to run, you could see him look downfield, stop, start to set his feet to throw and then have to bail on the idea because of converging defenders. The idea that he only looks to run when forced out of the pocket is pure fiction. He made numerous plays on the run last year and I'm sure he'll do so again this year. If I remember correctly, he's already done it a few times this season. However, in order to do that, the QB has to have an open receiver to throw to and time to do so.

I guess we'll learn more this weekend.

... and the next... and the next... a work in progress needs time to actually progress.

[BGM]

It's not that Ponder can't play, but in comparing him to Luck, for example, the difference is already clear. Ponder is a middling player. I'm not sure how else to put that. The way he throws, the way he moves, the way he runs the offense, all average.

I agree that what I see in Ponder is fairly average. However, I think comparing him to Luck, who IMO has the potential to be an elite, if not HoF, QB, is a bit unfair. Luck is one of those extemely rare players... a sure thing who really IS a sure thing. Will he be as exciting as RG3? Nope. But it will be fun watching both of them develop.

Anyway, back to Ponder. While what I see in him right now is fairly average, I also see some flashes of something more. Will he ever be elite? I'm wagering no. But, can he be effective enough to lead this team to a Super Bowl? I am seeing a couple encouraging things... his ability to keep plugging away. I have not seen him throw in the towel. That is a trait that should not be underestimated. I also think he is developing a better feel for pressure. Now, what he needs to do is make better decisions concerning how to handle that pressure, but there are plenty of QBs on the trash heap who never developed that sense.

And frankly, at this point in the process, I will happily accept consistently average over inconsistent, which is what the option is.

[Hunter Morrow]

Ponder said the Colts were playing cover 2 for a good portion of the game. If that's the case, the Vikings were probably attacking underneath it because that can be effective and, if it's effective enough, it can force the defense out of that deeper coverage and open things up downfield.

Jim

That is crap. That isn't how you attack Cover 2 and that isn't how any other team playing us attacks our Cover 2. 10 to 15 yards down the middle of the field and about 10 yards down the sideline with your receivers and lots of 5 plus yard passes to running backs and tight ends is how you attack Cover 2. A well-executed West Coast Offense with 10 to 15 yards routes down the middle of the field and right sideline with pass catching running backs and tight ends should theoretically eviscerate Cover 2. Bend-don't-break is pretty hard to pull off when so many guys on the field can catch it for the first down or run after the catch like Peterson or Harvin. We've only seen teams like the Patriots and Packers annihilate our secondary and linebackers with that game plan for 10 years now. 2 yard passes which are the area where the defense will be stacked to stop Peterson and Gerhardt and keep Ponder from gaining on scrambles is not the thing to do.

[Mothman]

That is crap. That isn't how you attack Cover 2 and that isn't how any other team playing us attacks our Cover 2. 10 to 15 yards down the middle of the field and about 10 yards down the sideline with your receivers and lots of 5 plus yard passes to running backs and tight ends is how you attack Cover 2.

Yes... and all of that does what I just said: attacks underneath the cover 2 shell. So why is it crap?

Bend-don't-break is pretty hard to pull off when so many guys on the field can catch it for the first down or run after the catch like Peterson or Harvin.

That's probably why Harvin had over 100 yards receiving against Indy, eh?

[Hunter Morrow]

Shoot, why did I say Vikings players?

Bend-don't-break with a lousy secondary, crappy coverage linebackers and little pressure=A Rookie Quarterback and Donnie "Who?!" Avery torching us.
You can't Bend-Don't-Break when the other team has a wide receiver catching it and running down the sidelines or the middle of the field with it for 10 yards at a crack.
If your Cover 2 D lets a guy victimize you for 110 yards, you are BROKEN. The pass D for the Vikings has been mediocre to awful for many, many years and it is a persistent franchise
problem. You can't do Cover 2 without a rockstar middle linebacker and some cream-of-the-crop secondary. Personnel wise we damn sure aren't the 2002 Bucs and I really don't think
I have to tell you that Frazier is no Gruden.

[VikingLord]

On one play, when Ponder was forced to run, you could see him look downfield, stop, start to set his feet to throw and then have to bail on the idea because of converging defenders. The idea that he only looks to run when forced out of the pocket is pure fiction. He made numerous plays on the run last year and I'm sure he'll do so again this year. If I remember correctly, he's already done it a few times this season. However, in order to do that, the QB has to have an open receiver to throw to and time to do so.

Isn't it amazing how Luck seemed to have all that time to throw when he escaped pressure and Ponder had none?

Do the Colts have a much better front 7 than the Vikings that explains the difference?

Pro QB's should have the ability to throw their receivers open, especially on short routes and roll out situations. I can't believe Ponder simply can't find an open man when he buys time. Maybe the difference between Ponder and Luck is that Luck understands this and/or has receivers more adept and improvising and getting open when their initial routes don't work out. Whatever the difference, I don't think it's as simple as Ponder never got time while Luck did. Ponder always seems to be under a lot of pressure when he rolls out, and I think it has to do with the fact that he's pretty bad (right now) at reading the field under conditions where the original play has broken down. Luck, like all great QB's, has no problem processing the field in that situation. If anything, the best QBs actually seem to thrive in those situations.

[BGM]

Ponder always seems to be under a lot of pressure when he rolls out, and I think it has to do with the fact that he's pretty bad (right now) at reading the field under conditions where the original play has broken down. Luck, like all great QB's, has no problem processing the field in that situation. If anything, the best QBs actually seem to thrive in those situations.

I think this is an accurate assessment. So, the question is... can he develop that vision? There is a possibility he can't. I want to believe he can. And if he does, I think that, coupled with his accuracy (even on short routes) would make him a very good QB.

[Raptorman]

I've been too busy to post much lately -- trying to finish a draft of book number 3, while holding down a full time law job and coordinating two community organizations, plus blogging every week. My life has been nuts, Jim. But I've watched both games and I still have the NFL Sunday Ticket. So I'm keeping up with them, as painful as that prospect can be.

Obviously, Ponder can improve, and I agree that you don't need perfect arm strength. But if you don't have such arm strength, and maybe even if you do, a QB needs great accuracy to be elite. That's what Montana had -- that and a great supporting cast. I'm not sold on Ponder having that great accuracy, and I am sure he doesn't have a great supporting cast. Hopefully, that supporting cast can at least be improved once we get that new receiver in the lineup.

I am curious, how much more accurate does he have to be? Currently after two weeks the number of QB's that have a higher completion percentage than Ponder. 0.

Luck BTW, has completed 56.6% of his. I am sure Ponders number will come down, but I am not sure how you get and accuracy problem out of the last two weeks. Must be from last year? If he ends up with a 65% completion rate I for one will be happy. High completions, low turnovers. Take care of the ball.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Jared Allen has been disappointing this season but I am not worried. I hate to say it, but there was virtually no chance Allen could replicate what he did last year. Allen will get his sacks this season, they just will not come at the rate they did last year.

[Mothman]

Pro QB's should have the ability to throw their receivers open, especially on short routes and roll out situations. I can't believe Ponder simply can't find an open man when he buys time. Maybe the difference between Ponder and Luck is that Luck understands this and/or has receivers more adept and improvising and getting open when their initial routes don't work out. Whatever the difference, I don't think it's as simple as Ponder never got time while Luck did. Ponder always seems to be under a lot of pressure when he rolls out, and I think it has to do with the fact that he's pretty bad (right now) at reading the field under conditions where the original play has broken down.

Considering how much trouble some of his receivers have had getting open, I'm not sure that's a fair assumption.

I'll think I'll finally have access to coaches film of the game today at NFL.com so when I have time, I'll look at those plays where Ponder left the pocket and I promise to give as unbiased an assessment as I can. If he rolled out, had time, and simply failed to see or throw to an open receiver, I'll say so. If he didn't have time or anyone to throw to, I'll say that too.

[Eli]

Yesterday, for the first time, I was wondering if he's a complete player at his position or just a sack guy. I'm watching the Colts run a successful reverse to Allen's side of the field because they know he's going to sell out to get the sack.

Allen does a lot of that. The Colts did more than just execute a couple of successful plays in his direction, they _targeted_ him in the running game, which says a lot.

And I'm watching Allen go so crazy for the sack when Luck is scrambling toward the sidelines that Allen nails him three yards out of bounds. That 15 yard penalty may have cost us the game, if I recall correctly, and I'm not sure Allen makes that stupid penalty if he is playing under control rather than smelling sacks like a bloodhound smells blood.

It was a stupid penalty that you don't expect a leader on defense to make. I fear that Allen's "leadership" credentials are limited to the cheerleadering that he does when he tries to get the crowd riled up at home games.