Vikings Message Board.Com

Cliff wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:24 pm

VikingLord wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:41 am

I don't know why Cook is worth $10 million per year.

Here are the 10 highest paid running backs in the NFL for the upcoming 2020 season:

NFL's highest paid running backs (average salary per year):

1. Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey: $16 million
2. Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott: $15 million
3. Jets RB Le’Veon Bell: $13.1 million
4. Texans RB David Johnson: $13 million
5. Titans RB Derrick Henry: $10.3 million
6. Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake: $8.5 million
7. Broncos RB Melvin Gordon: $8 million
8. Giants RB Saquon Barkley: $7.8 million
9. Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette: $6.8 million
10. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler: $6.1 million

Here are the top 10 running back statistics from the 2019 regular season:

GP Att Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD Lng 100+
1 Henry, Derrick TEN
15 303 20.2 1540 5.1 102.7 16 74 0
2 Chubb, Nick CLE
16 298 18.6 1494 5.0 93.4 8 88 0
3 McCaffrey, Christian CAR
16 287 17.9 1387 4.8 86.7 15 84 0
4 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL
16 301 18.8 1357 4.5 84.8 12 33 0
5 Carson, Chris SEA
15 278 18.5 1230 4.4 82.0 7 59 0
6 Jackson, Lamar BAL
15 176 11.7 1206 6.9 80.4 7 47 0
7 Fournette, Leonard JAX
15 265 17.7 1152 4.3 76.8 3 81 0
8 Jacobs, Josh OAK
13 242 18.6 1150 4.8 88.5 7 51 0
9 Mixon, Joe CIN
16 278 17.4 1137 4.1 71.1 5 41 0
10 Cook, Dalvin MIN
14 250 17.9 1135 4.5 81.1 13 75 0

Now that list is ordered by total yards and doesn't include receiving yardage or TDs receiving. There are different ways to order that list, and depending on how it is ordered Cook can rise into the top 5, or he falls between 5-10.

So I'm struggling with why Cook would feel he deserves to get paid as a top 5 RB when he has never performed to the overall level of a top 5 RB. It doesn't matter if he has the potential to do so. He has to actually do it.

When I look at the above and put his injury history into context, I feel even more strongly that Cook needs a true "prove it" year before the Vikings could justify spending top 5 money on him. He's just not a top 5 RB yet. Not in terms of on-field, consistent performance.

With that said, he's also not a $1.5 million performer. He probably merits a pay bump based on his performance (although I still think he should meet the terms of his rookie contract and the Vikings could make up that difference in an extension if he performs at that level and shows he can do it for an entire season), but if he wants $13 million for what he's produced thus far I say ship him ASAP. Even if he wants $10 million I say "where's the beef?". I just don't see enough from him to justify that. The flashes he's shown are great, but not enough for that kind of contract.

Why in the world would you factor out receiving yards when they are every bit as important? Especially in the modern NFL. The guy had the second highest receiving yards on the team. Even missing 2 games he had 7th most overall yards in the league. 2nd most average yards per game from scrimmage in the league.

This offense without Dalvin Cook and Diggs would be one of the worst we've ever seen.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:34 pm

Cliff wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:24 pm

Why in the world would you factor out receiving yards when they are every bit as important? Especially in the modern NFL. The guy had the second highest receiving yards on the team. Even missing 2 games he had 7th most overall yards in the league. 2nd most average yards per game from scrimmage in the league.

This offense without Dalvin Cook and Diggs would be one of the worst we've ever seen.

Not counting receiving yards and TDs is ridiculous. However Cook has had one good season so far. IMO he isn't a huge injury risk. He would have played 15 games last year except for the one the Vikings lost on purpose. I'm OK with the $10 million number based on what I expect going forward. The problem is that even if Dalvin accepts that amount he is going to be a very unhappy playing with that disrespect. The thing is I really doubt if any other team is going to offer Dalvin the deal he wants if we were to trade him. So he's just going to be a very unhappy person no matter how things end up.

VikingLord wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:25 pm

Cliff wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:24 pm Why in the world would you factor out receiving yards when they are every bit as important? Especially in the modern NFL. The guy had the second highest receiving yards on the team. Even missing 2 games he had 7th most overall yards in the league. 2nd most average yards per game from scrimmage in the league.

This offense without Dalvin Cook and Diggs would be one of the worst we've ever seen.

I'm not factoring them out per se - the stats I showed are consistent across the position. I showed running stats for each player listed not to minimize the importance or impact of receiving stats, but because Cook plays the RB position.

OK, so let's look at another set of measures, these provided by Football Outsiders (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019):

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA ▴ Rk VOA Runs Yards EYds TD FUM Suc
Rate Rk
R.Mostert SF 191 7 188 7 26.8% 1 26.3% 137 772 775 8 1 53% 9
M.Ingram BAL 257 3 249 3 19.8% 2 19.0% 202 1,018 1,194 10 2 60% 1
K.Drake 2TM 202 5 176 8 19.7% 3 16.0% 170 817 942 8 2 51% 16
E.Elliott DAL 324 1 271 1 16.5% 4 12.4% 301 1,358 1,637 12 3 56% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 278 2 190 6 14.9% 5 7.5% 287 1,387 1,468 15 1 47% 28
J.Howard PHI 113 14 105 14 14.2% 6 12.7% 119 525 608 6 0 53% 8
A.Jones GB 207 4 226 4 12.0% 7 13.8% 236 1,091 1,202 16 2 56% 5
G.Edwards BAL 126 11 124 12 11.8% 8 11.5% 133 710 736 2 2 56% 6
L.Murray NO 125 13 118 13 10.7% 9 9.6% 146 637 760 5 0 60% 2
D.Cook MIN 183 8 191 5 9.3% 10 10.1% 250 1,135 1,178 13 3 49% 23
D.Henry TEN 192 6 251 2 6.7% 11 11.4% 303 1,542 1,391 16 5 50% 17

Sorry for the formatting.

This doesn't include receiving yards either, but it includes the DVOA metric (per the website, DVOA means

This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense

By DVOA Cook is the 10th best back in the league.

In short, as a running back, Cook is a top 10 back, but not a top 5. Even if one includes his total offensive yards as you did, he's still only 7th in that metric. It's nothing to sneeze at for sure, and maybe if he had two more games under his 2019 belt he'd have finished top 5, but he didn't. He has yet to finish a full season healthy, so we don't have any historical record to indicate what that would look like for Cook.

He's not a top 5 RB. He is explosive. He shows some real flashes. He's just not done that for a full year, and based on what he has done, no way should the Vikings pony up 13 million for him. I'd argue 10 million is too much for several reasons, not the least of which is he's not a top 5 RB and that is top 5 RB money.

I really don't care if he's the 2nd or 1st best offensive weapon for the Vikings. The 2019 Vikings barely made the playoffs and didn't sniff the Superbowl. Why exactly is Cook so critical in the big scheme of things for 2020 given the results of the 2019 season?

For me, it's simple - he's got to show he can be a top 5 back and do it for a whole season. He does that, he's either going to hit free agency and force the Vikings to franchise him and pay him top 5 money if they want to keep him, or he's going to get paid in free agency via an extension or by a different team.

RandyMoss84 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:44 pm

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:34 pm
Not counting receiving yards and TDs is ridiculous. However Cook has had one good season so far. IMO he isn't a huge injury risk. He would have played 15 games last year except for the one the Vikings lost on purpose. I'm OK with the $10 million number based on what I expect going forward. The problem is that even if Dalvin accepts that amount he is going to be a very unhappy playing with that disrespect. The thing is I really doubt if any other team is going to offer Dalvin the deal he wants if we were to trade him. So he's just going to be a very unhappy person no matter how things end up.

He played 14 games

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:47 pm

RandyMoss84 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:44 pm

He played 14 games

Whatever Randy. The Vikings sat him for the sole purpose of losing to the Bears week 17. That isn't on Dalvin. It's ridiculous to act like he missed two games last year when he never got the chance to play one of them when he was ready willing and able to go.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:34 pm

Cliff wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:24 pm

Why in the world would you factor out receiving yards when they are every bit as important? Especially in the modern NFL. The guy had the second highest receiving yards on the team. Even missing 2 games he had 7th most overall yards in the league. 2nd most average yards per game from scrimmage in the league.

This offense without Dalvin Cook and Diggs would be one of the worst we've ever seen.

Not counting receiving yards and TDs is ridiculous. However Cook has had one good season so far. IMO he isn't a huge injury risk. He would have played 15 games last year except for the one the Vikings lost on purpose. I'm OK with the $10 million number based on what I expect going forward. The problem is that even if Dalvin accepts that amount he is going to be a very unhappy playing with that disrespect. The thing is I really doubt if any other team is going to offer Dalvin the deal he wants if we were to trade him. So he's just going to be a very unhappy person no matter how things end up.

Cliff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:58 am

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:34 pm
Not counting receiving yards and TDs is ridiculous. However Cook has had one good season so far. IMO he isn't a huge injury risk. He would have played 15 games last year except for the one the Vikings lost on purpose. I'm OK with the $10 million number based on what I expect going forward. The problem is that even if Dalvin accepts that amount he is going to be a very unhappy playing with that disrespect. The thing is I really doubt if any other team is going to offer Dalvin the deal he wants if we were to trade him. So he's just going to be a very unhappy person no matter how things end up.

Why would you think he'll feel disrespected? 10m a year is still top 5 RB money.

VikingLord wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:25 pmI'm not factoring them out per se - the stats I showed are consistent across the position. I showed running stats for each player listed not to minimize the importance or impact of receiving stats, but because Cook plays the RB position.

In short, as a running back, Cook is a top 10 back, but not a top 5. Even if one includes his total offensive yards as you did, he's still only 7th in that metric. It's nothing to sneeze at for sure, and maybe if he had two more games under his 2019 belt he'd have finished top 5, but he didn't. He has yet to finish a full season healthy, so we don't have any historical record to indicate what that would look like for Cook.

He's not a top 5 RB. He is explosive. He shows some real flashes. He's just not done that for a full year, and based on what he has done, no way should the Vikings pony up 13 million for him. I'd argue 10 million is too much for several reasons, not the least of which is he's not a top 5 RB and that is top 5 RB money.

I really don't care if he's the 2nd or 1st best offensive weapon for the Vikings. The 2019 Vikings barely made the playoffs and didn't sniff the Superbowl. Why exactly is Cook so critical in the big scheme of things for 2020 given the results of the 2019 season?

For me, it's simple - he's got to show he can be a top 5 back and do it for a whole season. He does that, he's either going to hit free agency and force the Vikings to franchise him and pay him top 5 money if they want to keep him, or he's going to get paid in free agency via an extension or by a different team.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:34 pm Not counting receiving yards and TDs is ridiculous. However Cook has had one good season so far. IMO he isn't a huge injury risk. He would have played 15 games last year except for the one the Vikings lost on purpose. I'm OK with the $10 million number based on what I expect going forward.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:45 pm To me you're still using a ridiculous stat. What about his TDs. Ultimately that is what matters. He only missed one game last year due to injury. Nothing wrong with that. He is one of the 5 best RBs in the league based on what almost everybody believes and sees. 2nd most yards per game. That said he doesn't have a track record. He's got one very good season in the bank. I expect last year to be more representative of him going forward then the first two seasons. Players are usually paid based on potential and future expectations than previous. I personally think $10 million is the right number. Dalvin will believe he is disrespected at that.

Cliff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:35 am

VikingLord wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:25 pm

Can you find any sources that agree with you outside of that stat? Here are all the of the non-fantasy football RB rankings going into the 2020 season that I could find.

Profootball Network - Dalvin Cook #4
Bleacher Report Dalvin Cook #5
Dallas Morning News Dalvin Cook #5
USA Today Dalvin Cook #5

Cliff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:35 am So no player from the 2019 team should be extended? The team didn't sniff the Superbowl - so we should make it weaker?

Cliff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:35 am You don't think Cook is important enough to the team to pay and so the fact that the team will almost certainly lose him in 2020 if they don't extend him this year doesn't really matter. We'll just have to agree to disagree there.

Cliff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:35 am Profootball Network - Dalvin Cook #4
Bleacher Report Dalvin Cook #5
Dallas Morning News Dalvin Cook #5
USA Today Dalvin Cook #5

VikingLord wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:23 pm

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:45 pm To me you're still using a ridiculous stat. What about his TDs. Ultimately that is what matters. He only missed one game last year due to injury. Nothing wrong with that. He is one of the 5 best RBs in the league based on what almost everybody believes and sees. 2nd most yards per game. That said he doesn't have a track record. He's got one very good season in the bank. I expect last year to be more representative of him going forward then the first two seasons. Players are usually paid based on potential and future expectations than previous. I personally think $10 million is the right number. Dalvin will believe he is disrespected at that.

I'm trying to be impartial in evaluating whether Cook is what he thinks he is and I'm even delving into the notion being promoted in this thread by many that hey, it's fine to sign a contract and then attempt to rip it up unilaterally later by expressing unhappiness and/or threatening a holdout. Cook had a pro agent when he signed his rookie contract and rookie contracts in the NFL are negotiated under the terms of a collective bargaining agreement hashed out between representatives of all the players and representatives of all the owners that attempts to balance the interests and obligations of everyone.

As for Cook's TDs, he ranked 4th rushing (13 total) and I would assume is tied for last receiving since he had no receiving TDs.

First place in TDs was 16 by Aaron Jones. I wonder if he's going to hold out for $10 million per year now... He averaged 4.6 YPC (versus Cook's 4.5), finished with 1,084 yards rushing (versus Cook's 1,135), played a full 16 games (versus Cook's 14, which was the most he's managed since joining the league 3 years ago), and his team made it to the NFC Championship Game.

Jones wasn't too shabby as a receiver either since that seems to be critical to this discussion. His receiving stats in 2019 were:

Receptions Targets Yards YPC TDs Long
49 68 474 9.7 3 67

Just to be concise I'll put Cook's 2019 receiving numbers up here by comparison

Receptions Targets Yards YPC TDs Long
53 63 519 9.8 0 31


Those stats (both rushing and receiving) look pretty similar to me.

So should Aaron Jones think about holding out now too? Is he arguably a top 5 back?

There is a very good reason the CBA discourages holdouts, especially by rookies. It's a really slippery slope, and once one player gets his way by sitting in the corner holding his breath, it creates a lot of incentives for others who feel slighted to do the same.

7 eye-popping statistics about Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

Stat No. 1
Since Dalvin Cook entered the NFL in 2017, he has averaged more rushing yards per game than Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Le’Veon Bell, Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Kareem Hunt, and Mark Ingram.

The exact number is 72.6 rushing yards per game. This equates to 1,162 rushing yards per season. And, that’s just the rushing. Cook does a substantial chunk of his damage via pass-catching as well.

In 2019, he averaged 31.5 receiving yards per game. This ranked second in the NFL (minimum 10 games played) of all running backs behind McCaffrey–who was targeted 142 times by Carolina Panthers quarterbacks (a league record for running backs).

In yards per carry, Cook sits at 4.6 for his career. Compared to other notable running backs in the first three seasons of their respective careers, this outpaces Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, LaDanian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Tony Dorsett, Thurman Thomas, Steven Jackson, Ricky Watters, Roger Craig, Todd Gurley, Larry Csonka, and hundreds of others.


Stat No. 2
Dalvin Cook was one of two players in the NFL during 2019 to exceed the 1,000 rushing yards,10 touchdowns, and 500 receiving yards.

If you play fantasy football in any capacity, you probably know that Christian McCaffrey was the other player.


Stat No. 6
In 2019, Dalvin Cook gained 15 Yards or more on 8.6% percent of all touches. This was best among the NFL’s top 10 leading rushers.

The percentages for each of the other running backs included Christian McCaffrey at 7.7 percent, Nick Chubb at 7.5 percent, Josh Jacobs at 7.3 percent, Derrick Henry at 6.9 percent, Joe Mixon at 6.7 percent, Leonard Fournette at 5.6 percent, Chris Carson at 5.4 percent, Ezekiel Elliott at 5.0 percent, and Marlon Mack at 5.0 percent.

No upper-echelon running back was better at getting his team at least 15 yards on a given play than Cook in 2019.

VikingLord wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:36 pmHonestly, I'll have to read the rational behind the rankings you posted later. I'm curious if those are based on someone's opinion or actual stats.

Cliff wrote: ↑Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:35 am So no player from the 2019 team should be extended? The team didn't sniff the Superbowl - so we should make it weaker?

With all due respect, that is a ridiculous extension of what I said.

I really don't care if he's the 2nd or 1st best offensive weapon for the Vikings. The 2019 Vikings barely made the playoffs and didn't sniff the Superbowl. Why exactly is Cook so critical in the big scheme of things for 2020 given the results of the 2019 season?

No, I think he should play out the 2020 season and if he proves he can perform for the entirety of the season I'm fine with the Vikings paying him. I don't think a strategy of investing heavily at QB and RB is a proven way to compete for a Superbowl in the modern NFL, but if the Vikings brain trust believes differently I'm fine with that. They are the ones whose jobs are tied to the decisions they make in the offseason.

Either way, if Cook performs he'll be paid accordingly.