2024 NFL Draft

[VikingsVictorious]

Chris Simms is my favorite draft analyst when it comes to QBs. That doesn't mean I will agree with every one of his takes, but I will second guess my opinions when he explains his reasoning. He thinks Caleb Williams is far and away the best QB in the draft. I like everything he has to say about him. However, he's going to play for the Bears so his career could be over before it starts. He has Jayden Daniels in his own tier as 2nd best in the draft. Coming in 3rd is Bo Nix, 4th is Penix, 5th is McCarthy and 6th is Maye. He's guaranteeing that Maye will be available when the Vikings pick and believes we should NOT take him. This is a very in depth analysis of the top 6 QBs in his opinion in the draft. It's brand new. Just came out yesterday. It's 2 hours so will require some serious attention span, but IMO it's well worth it.

[VikingLord]

Chris Simms is my favorite draft analyst when it comes to QBs. That doesn't mean I will agree with every one of his takes, but I will second guess my opinions when he explains his reasoning. He thinks Caleb Williams is far and away the best QB in the draft. I like everything he has to say about him. However, he's going to play for the Bears so his career could be over before it starts. He has Jayden Daniels in his own tier as 2nd best in the draft. Coming in 3rd is Bo Nix, 4th is Penix, 5th is McCarthy and 6th is Maye. He's guaranteeing that Maye will be available when the Vikings pick and believes we should NOT take him. This is a very in depth analysis of the top 6 QBs in his opinion in the draft. It's brand new. Just came out yesterday. It's 2 hours so will require some serious attention span, but IMO it's well worth it.

I haven't had time to watch any of Simms' analysis, but the Drake Maye ranking is FAR different than any other analyst I have watched or read, so I found that very interesting that Simms sees him so differently than apparently anyone else who does this for a living.

What I have read about Maye is basically he's not very exciting or particularly great at anything. He's just a competent QB who draws a comp to Jared Goff over at Walterfootball. Given that Goff has had some success as a pro, maybe that isn't a bad thing. Goff won't light anyone up with his arm or legs but he also doesn't do anything to cost his team and probably is a very coachable QB that his OC and head coach can count on to do what they ask him to do.

I personally think Maye will be gone in the first 3 picks. The first 3 teams in the draft order all have dire needs at QB, and behind them are the Giants and Falcons along with the Bears at #9 who, if Maye somehow drops to that point, will field offers for that pick from teams like the Broncos who also need a QB.

So if Maye makes it to #11 I can't see KAM passing on him there even if he does get offered the Lion's 6th rounder next year to trade back to #29.

[VikingsVictorious]

Chris Simms is my favorite draft analyst when it comes to QBs. That doesn't mean I will agree with every one of his takes, but I will second guess my opinions when he explains his reasoning. He thinks Caleb Williams is far and away the best QB in the draft. I like everything he has to say about him. However, he's going to play for the Bears so his career could be over before it starts. He has Jayden Daniels in his own tier as 2nd best in the draft. Coming in 3rd is Bo Nix, 4th is Penix, 5th is McCarthy and 6th is Maye. He's guaranteeing that Maye will be available when the Vikings pick and believes we should NOT take him. This is a very in depth analysis of the top 6 QBs in his opinion in the draft. It's brand new. Just came out yesterday. It's 2 hours so will require some serious attention span, but IMO it's well worth it.

I haven't had time to watch any of Simms' analysis, but the Drake Maye ranking is FAR different than any other analyst I have watched or read, so I found that very interesting that Simms sees him so differently than apparently anyone else who does this for a living.

What I have read about Maye is basically he's not very exciting or particularly great at anything. He's just a competent QB who draws a comp to Jared Goff over at Walterfootball. Given that Goff has had some success as a pro, maybe that isn't a bad thing. Goff won't light anyone up with his arm or legs but he also doesn't do anything to cost his team and probably is a very coachable QB that his OC and head coach can count on to do what they ask him to do.
I bet Simms is right. If we want Maye he is as good as ours.

I personally think Maye will be gone in the first 3 picks. The first 3 teams in the draft order all have dire needs at QB, and behind them are the Giants and Falcons along with the Bears at #9 who, if Maye somehow drops to that point, will field offers for that pick from teams like the Broncos who also need a QB.

So if Maye makes it to #11 I can't see KAM passing on him there even if he does get offered the Lion's 6th rounder next year to trade back to #29.

Simms says that it's just the draftniks who have Maye high. NFL GMs that have looked at him have dropped him like a hot potato. He's putting his good reputation on the line and guaranteeing Maye will fall to our pick. He considers him a 2nd round talent. If we want Maye he is as good as ours.
I highly recommend listening to the whole podcast even though it's a 2 hour investment or you can skip to his part on Drake Maye. That starts at 1:37:45.

[VikingLord]

Simms says that it's just the draftniks who have Maye high. NFL GMs that have looked at him have dropped him like a hot potato. He's putting his good reputation on the line and guaranteeing Maye will fall to our pick. He considers him a 2nd round talent.
I highly recommend listening to the whole podcast even though it's a 2 hour investment or you can skip to his part on Drake Maye. That starts at 1:37:45.

It's funny - I actually agree with Simms that Maye is a 2nd round talent. In fact, apart from Williams (who I think is not just a 1st round talent, but the top overall talent in this year's draft), I think Maye and Daniels are both 2nd round talents, Nix and Penix are 3rd round talents, and McCarthy is a 4th rounder. QB inflation runs rampant every year, though, so all of them get talked up.

I'll have to watch what Simms says about Maye that causes him to think so little of him though. Of the top 1st and 2nd tier guys in this year's draft, I'd say Maye and Penix have the best chance to become regular starters as pros. Not stars as pros per se, but QBs in the mold of Cousins and Goff. Williams is either going to become the next Mahomes or flame out completely IMHO, while Daniels, Nix and McCarthy will all wash out for different reasons. Penix's success will depend largely on whether he can avoid the injury bug that has plagued him in college, but if healthy, he'll be a good to even very good pro.

But it will be interesting to see if Simms evaluation hits closer to the mark both in terms of where Maye is drafted and the kind of career he has as a pro.

[VikingsVictorious]

Simms says that it's just the draftniks who have Maye high. NFL GMs that have looked at him have dropped him like a hot potato. He's putting his good reputation on the line and guaranteeing Maye will fall to our pick. He considers him a 2nd round talent.
I highly recommend listening to the whole podcast even though it's a 2 hour investment or you can skip to his part on Drake Maye. That starts at 1:37:45.

It's funny - I actually agree with Simms that Maye is a 2nd round talent. In fact, apart from Williams (who I think is not just a 1st round talent, but the top overall talent in this year's draft), I think Maye and Daniels are both 2nd round talents, Nix and Penix are 3rd round talents, and McCarthy is a 4th rounder. QB inflation runs rampant every year, though, so all of them get talked up.

I'll have to watch what Simms says about Maye that causes him to think so little of him though. Of the top 1st and 2nd tier guys in this year's draft, I'd say Maye and Penix have the best chance to become regular starters as pros. Not stars as pros per se, but QBs in the mold of Cousins and Goff. Williams is either going to become the next Mahomes or flame out completely IMHO, while Daniels, Nix and McCarthy will all wash out for different reasons. Penix's success will depend largely on whether he can avoid the injury bug that has plagued him in college, but if healthy, he'll be a good to even very good pro.

But it will be interesting to see if Simms evaluation hits closer to the mark both in terms of where Maye is drafted and the kind of career he has as a pro.

I'm always skeptical about QBs in the draft, but you take it to a whole new level. Simms considers this an exceptional QB class and has his top 5 as all 1st round worthy with Maye 2nd round worthy.

[cogitator]

I was going to post the Chris Simms video here, but you guys beat me to it. He's very good on quarterbacks, better than most of the NFL scouts (an NFL team could almost draft just based on this video). I started paying attention to him a few years ago when he rated Lamar Jackson as the best qb in that draft class. The only thing I don't like is the idea that the Vikings will have to face Williams and the Bears twice a year for the next 10 or 15 years.

Most surprising take in the video, as others have commented on, is ranking Maye as the sixth best prospect. He has been consensus number 2 all year whenever I looked at any mock drafts. Good that Simms isn't afraid to buck the consensus.

[VikingLord]

I'm always skeptical about QBs in the draft, but you take it to a whole new level. Simms considers this an exceptional QB class and has his top 5 as all 1st round worthy with Maye 2nd round worthy.

He's entertaining and seems to know what he's talking about. I honestly never watched him assess a QB class before, so assuming he's done this in past years, it would almost be more interesting to watch his assessments of past draft classes than the present one to see if he actually knows what he's talking about.

Along those lines, I'd be curious to hear if he's ever identified a sleeper at QB from a past draft. A guy who isn't as hyped up and ends up drafted in a later round and who ends up as a successful pro who Simms identified before the fact.

Do you know if he's done this for past drafts and if so, how frequently has he been right?

I suppose I could look that up too, but just wondering if you already might know.

[VikingsVictorious]

I'm always skeptical about QBs in the draft, but you take it to a whole new level. Simms considers this an exceptional QB class and has his top 5 as all 1st round worthy with Maye 2nd round worthy.

He's entertaining and seems to know what he's talking about. I honestly never watched him assess a QB class before, so assuming he's done this in past years, it would almost be more interesting to watch his assessments of past draft classes than the present one to see if he actually knows what he's talking about.

Along those lines, I'd be curious to hear if he's ever identified a sleeper at QB from a past draft. A guy who isn't as hyped up and ends up drafted in a later round and who ends up as a successful pro who Simms identified before the fact.

Do you know if he's done this for past drafts and if so, how frequently has he been right?

I suppose I could look that up too, but just wondering if you already might know.

Like most people when it comes to the crap shoot that the draft is he has had some hits and misses. IMO more hits than most. He strongly preferred Stroud to Young last year.

[cogitator]

Along those lines, I'd be curious to hear if he's ever identified a sleeper at QB from a past draft. A guy who isn't as hyped up and ends up drafted in a later round and who ends up as a successful pro who Simms identified before the fact.

Do you know if he's done this for past drafts and if so, how frequently has he been right?

I suppose I could look that up too, but just wondering if you already might know.

I don't think finding a prospect who is drafted in later rounds and then becomes a good starter is a good test, since it happens so infrequently, not much of a sample size. (I know - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Brady, Russell Wilson, but that's spread out over 20 years). As I said above, he did like Lamar Jackson best, and he was the fifth qb selected that year, after Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Rosen, so a good call there.

[VikingsVictorious]

I was going to post the Chris Simms video here, but you guys beat me to it. He's very good on quarterbacks, better than most of the NFL scouts (an NFL team could almost draft just based on this video). I started paying attention to him a few years ago when he rated Lamar Jackson as the best qb in that draft class. The only thing I don't like is the idea that the Vikings will have to face Williams and the Bears twice a year for the next 10 or 15 years.

Most surprising take in the video, as others have commented on, is ranking Maye as the sixth best prospect. He has been consensus number 2 all year whenever I looked at any mock drafts. Good that Simms isn't afraid to buck the consensus.

Don't worry about it. They are still the Bears and they will ruin him.

[VikingLord]

He's entertaining and seems to know what he's talking about. I honestly never watched him assess a QB class before, so assuming he's done this in past years, it would almost be more interesting to watch his assessments of past draft classes than the present one to see if he actually knows what he's talking about.

Along those lines, I'd be curious to hear if he's ever identified a sleeper at QB from a past draft. A guy who isn't as hyped up and ends up drafted in a later round and who ends up as a successful pro who Simms identified before the fact.

Do you know if he's done this for past drafts and if so, how frequently has he been right?

I suppose I could look that up too, but just wondering if you already might know.

Like most people when it comes to the crap shoot that the draft is he has had some hits and misses. IMO more hits than most. He strongly preferred Stroud to Young last year.

OK, I watched what he had to say about Maye and wowsers, he basically said that Maye generally sucks and if you don't do more than watch his highlight reel throws you won't see that. Sure, he couched his comments in "potential" and "time to develop", but the sorts of things he pointed out as flaws in Maye's game (like locking out his leg on some throws) are not the sorts of things that are easy to coach out of a guy at this point in his career. When Simms talked about how inaccurate Maye is I had to do a double-take on that observation given it's the complete opposite of what is written about Maye at Walterfootball (https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2024DMaye.php)

Strengths:

Lethal accuracy
Very accurate passer in the middle of the field
Pocket composure
Generally a good decision-maker
Can fit passes into tight windows
Good ball placement in middle of the field
Throws a very catchable ball
Can throw receivers open
Beats good coverage with accuracy, placement
Leads receivers for more yardage after the catch

I mean, where Simms winds up compared to that is a little hard to reconcile, and I have to admit I've only watched the Maye draft profile evals on Youtube, so it's possible none of those guys are watching all the tape Simms is watching, but like, wowsers is barely sufficient to describe the divergence between Simms eval and pretty much every other eval I've read or watched of Maye.

Prior to hearing what Simms' had to say I'd have said Maye would easily be off the board before #11. After hearing what he said (and especially his allusions to having talked to other pro scouts at the Combine), I'll be shocked if Maye goes in the 2nd round.

It will be really interesting to see both where Maye ends up coming off the board, who takes him, and how his pro career turns out.

Fascinating stuff. Thanks for posting it. I'll try to watch Simm's comments on the other QBs coming out.

[VikingLord]

Along those lines, I'd be curious to hear if he's ever identified a sleeper at QB from a past draft. A guy who isn't as hyped up and ends up drafted in a later round and who ends up as a successful pro who Simms identified before the fact.

Do you know if he's done this for past drafts and if so, how frequently has he been right?

I suppose I could look that up too, but just wondering if you already might know.

I don't think finding a prospect who is drafted in later rounds and then becomes a good starter is a good test, since it happens so infrequently, not much of a sample size. (I know - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Brady, Russell Wilson, but that's spread out over 20 years). As I said above, he did like Lamar Jackson best, and he was the fifth qb selected that year, after Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Rosen, so a good call there.

I guess what I'm saying with my initial question is a truly good QB evaluator should be able to find those gems in a draft versus the average evaluator who is more or less guessing.

To flip that on it's head, what did Simms have to say about Zac Wilson coming out? Or Justin Fields? Or, for that matter, Mac Jones or Daniel Jones? Did he conversely like any of those guys?

[cogitator]

I guess what I'm saying with my initial question is a truly good QB evaluator should be able to find those gems in a draft versus the average evaluator who is more or less guessing.

To flip that on it's head, what did Simms have to say about Zac Wilson coming out? Or Justin Fields? Or, for that matter, Mac Jones or Daniel Jones? Did he conversely like any of those guys?

(I thought I posted all this earlier, I'll try again)

I think finding the gems is easy, Trevor Lawrence was known in football circles since he was in high school. The hard part is to figure out when someone is thought to be a gem, but isn't. I think, my recall might be off, but I think Simms was at least somwhat wary of Trey Lance.

Try these. (btw, search engines are your friend, except for google)

https://nbcsportsgrouppressbox.com/2020 ... d-podcast/

[VikingLord]

I think finding the gems is easy,

Who are the gems in this upcoming class?

The hard part is to figure out when someone is thought to be a gem, but isn't.

So finding a real gem is easy, but avoiding a fake gem is hard?

Sorry, to be honest you kind of lost me with this, and not because I don't know how to use a search engine, but rather because I just wanted to know if anyone on here actually had followed Simms over the years and *knew* if he was capable of predicting the outcomes of a QB prospects pro career at a rate any better than the draft prognosticators he casually dismissed in that video. I have yet to see anyone else anywhere else rank Drake Maye where he did, nor read any comments from any other analyst that came close to saying what he said about him.

And since you made the above claims so casually, I'm really curious now to know what more you have to say about this year's QB class. Do you agree with Simms that his top 5 are all "gems"? Is Maye destined to be "Lanced" like Trey? Is Simms wrong about anything he said in his analysis in your opinion?

[cogitator]

So finding a real gem is easy, but avoiding a fake gem is hard?

Sorry, to be honest you kind of lost me with this

Yeah, that's a little garbled, scratch that statement.