Vikings Message Board.Com

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:37 pm

VikingLord wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:35 pm

Yeah, you've got your evidence and your conviction and that's great.

So if you're betting that Mims goes in the 1st round I'll take that bet.

No need to put money on it. The loser of the bet just posts something in this thread acknowledging the winner was right.

Boring, but OK. I would prefer $20 on it. Mims could fall out of the first round. I give that a 20% chance.

VikingLord wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:43 pm

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:37 pm
Boring, but OK. I would prefer $20 on it. Mims could fall out of the first round. I give that a 20% chance.

The way I see it the odds of Mims going in the 3rd round are higher than the odds of him going in the 1st. Will be interesting to see which of us is closer to the mark.

RandyMoss84 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:20 pm I would be very surprised if Mims is not selected in the first round, I think Mims will be selected between from #20 to #32

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:30 am

RandyMoss84 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:20 pm I would be very surprised if Mims is not selected in the first round, I think Mims will be selected between from #20 to #32

I hope he is selected before pick 22

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:56 am

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:30 am

I hope he is selected before pick 22

Because if he doesn't are you afraid that the the Vikings will make the horrible blunder of selecting him? Maybe he will go at pick 19 with us giving up 22 and 89 to get him. Then you will have got your wish.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:03 pm

fiestavike wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:47 pm

No, you are just incorrect on this. You are measuring by outcomes, not the processes beneath the outcomes. The best that can give you is correlation, not an actual understanding of what leads to productive plays/productive players. Its just a poor and inaccurate way to measure, but to each their own.

I am stating fact. Production in the form of points is the only determiner of winning and losing. There are other forms of production, but the best production of points is absolute in winning or losing.

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:05 am

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:03 pm
I am stating fact. Production in the form of points is the only determiner of winning and losing. There are other forms of production, but the best production of points is absolute in winning or losing.

Ponzi schemes show great "production" too. As I said, to measure by production is to base everything on correlation and to be ignorant of the cause. Its easy to rule out players who have limited production, or to select players based on their amount of production, but you often won't end up with the best players by picking only based on correlation. That's why scouts try to analyze the player and the plays, and even that is incredibly difficult to do given all the variables at play.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:34 am

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:05 am

Ponzi schemes show great "production" too. As I said, to measure by production is to base everything on correlation and to be ignorant of the cause. Its easy to rule out players who have limited production, or to select players based on their amount of production, but you often won't end up with the best players by picking only based on correlation. That's why scouts try to analyze the player and the plays, and even that is incredibly difficult to do given all the variables at play.

Whether you like it or not games are won by production is an inescapable fact. The team that produces the most points wins the game.

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:01 am

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:34 am
Whether you like it or not games are won by production is an inescapable fact. The team that produces the most points wins the game.

You are missing my point, but that's okay. We can leave it there.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:09 am

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:01 am

You are missing my point, but that's okay. We can leave it there.

I get your point. I was just irritated by you denying my point. Production is what wins games. End of story.
Of course you can't project the production of college players translating to the pros so you need to account for variables.
College production should be taken with a grain of salt, but it shouldn't be ignored.

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:13 am

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:09 am
I get your point. I was just irritated by you denying my point. Production is what wins games. End of story.
Of course you can't project the production of college players translating to the pros so you need to account for variables.
College production should be taken with a grain of salt, but it shouldn't be ignored.

Production isn't what wins games, as any coach of any sport could tell you. Its what goes into production that actually wins games (skill, effort, technique, practice, etc etc). Production is an outcome. Its like saying winning is what wins games. It makes no logical sense. But I'm happy to disagree and leave it there.

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:18 am

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:13 am

Production isn't what wins games, as any coach of any sport could tell you. Its what goes into production that actually wins games (skill, effort, technique, practice, etc etc). Production is an outcome. Its like saying winning is what wins games. It makes no logical sense. But I'm happy to disagree and leave it there.

You're trying to deny an absolute fact. The team that produces the most points wins. No other possible outcome. You wonder why you are driving me crazy with your assertions.

fiestavike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:24 am

VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:18 am
You're trying to deny an absolute fact. The team that produces the most points wins. No other possible outcome. You wonder why you are driving me crazy with your assertions.

If you insist on framing it that way, sure. The team that scores the most points wins. I get it. But its not an insightful way to frame it. There is no value to it. If you want to analyze players that way, be my guest.