Vikings Message Board.Com

if he performs no better than he did this year he won't be our quarterback for the long term. and culpepper had twice the arm teddy has in his first actual year as a starter he threw for 33 td's and 3,900 yards.

mosscarter wrote:if he performs no better than he did this year he won't be our quarterback for the long term. and culpepper had twice the arm teddy has in his first actual year as a starter he threw for 33 td's and 3,900 yards.

Culpepper also had Moss and Carter as receivers and an offensive line that gave him time. I believe that Teddy is the answer, he just needs the support around him, starting with a line to keep him up right for more than half a second.

mosscarter wrote:culpepper had twice the arm teddy has in his first actual year as a starter he threw for 33 td's and 3,900 yards.

C-Pep also had about 30 more attempts or the equivalent of another game. Balancing that out would put Teddy around 500 yards behind. Oh, and Culpepper just had two Hall of Fame receivers to throw to (both were All-Pros elected to the Pro Bowl that year). Are you saying if Teddy had Moss and Carter he wouldn't have put up another measly 500 passing yards? That offensive line also had Birk, Steussie and Stringer.

Let's not compare those two offenses.

dead_poet wrote: C-Pep also had about 30 more attempts or the equivalent of another game. Balancing that out would put Teddy around 500 yards behind. Oh, and Culpepper just had two Hall of Fame receivers to throw to (both were All-Pros elected to the Pro Bowl that year). Are you saying if Teddy had Moss and Carter he wouldn't have put up another measly 500 passing yards? That offensive line also had Birk, Steussie and Stringer.

Let's not compare those two offenses.

But doesn't it FEEL right to compare them? Numbers, bah, don't talk to me about numbers or personnel, it FEELS right.

Teddy's stat line for 2015 wasn't terrible. He had over 3000 yards passing with only 30 more attempts than he had in 2014. (in 3 more games.) I am sure a big part of that is the impact of #28. Also, despite 3 MORE games he had 25% FEWER INT, going from 12 to 9. IMO, this is his most important statistic of the year.

However, this thread is about TB improving, so lets just cut to the chase. Teddy's yardage, completion %, velocity numbers, and whatever the heck else are really just dodging the question. TB had 14TD in 2014 and 14TD in 2015 despite 3 more games played. That is the stat that needs to get better.

We lost three games this year against teams who all played last weekend and in each case it came down to either a missed field goal or in the case of AZ, bad blocking before being able to attempt the FG. In each case a scoring play by TB would have sealed the deal long before the kicking game could becoming an issue.

Before getting in the dumps, we should relish the fact that we played those three games that tight. That means we are contenders and not pretenders. Heck if two of those games go the other way we could have been playing last weekend and possibly playing at home. Making just 3-4 more plays were the difference between a 3 seed and a 2 seed, a big reason why I think overall this team as of right now is a legitimate superbowl contender in 2016. (injuries and all that not withstanding)

A note here, we have all kinds of plays, especially in the passing game where we are not making it happen. So while I said 3-4 more plays above, the fact is we are not making every play (most teams don't) so this team has not achieved it's ceiling. In line with this thread, the passing game probably has more than it's fair share of opportunity.

TB needs to get better at scoring in the passing game which means being a better red zone passer. He has shown that he has the gusto and composure to not torpedo a game against a high quality opponent. (That is huge, btw, look at what Carson Palmer almost did to the Cardinals on Saturday) Now he needs to show that he can make plays and win games vs. just not losing. That to me is the area to improve for next year. How he does it is a good question. I think that protection is probably a significant part of the problem though. I had a sens that as the year went on TB got "used" to his blocking breaking down and thus was more likely to scramble if he felt like it was going to fall apart. I gave him a bit of a pass on the happy feet thing since more often than not the protection was a disaster.

Purple bruise wrote: What play was it that he had time in the pocket Was there one of those I remember him and Ponder running for their lives on most passing downs. This o-line blatantly sucks/sucked over the last several years when it comes to pass protection. To me, revamping that o-line will make a tremendous difference.

The first order of business during the offseason was replacing the Oline coach, so it appears the Vikings braintrust agreed with your assessment of the offensive line's issues.

But to my point, yes, there were times when Bridgewater had time and either failed to pull the trigger on a deeper pass or pulled it and missed badly. There were examples of it starting in the game against San Fran (where Zimmer himself spoke about it after the game) all the way to the end of the season where Zimmer once again spoke about it. Bridgewater does need to improve his recognition and deep passing regardless of what happens with the offensive line.

losperros wrote: Some of that would probably change with different scheming and including Johnson and Patterson in the passing game. I agree that Diggs runs well after the catch. Actually, I think Wright does too, depending on what kind of pass is thrown to him.

These are the stats for the top receivers for the Vikings in 2015:

NAME REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Stefon Diggs 52 84 720 13.8 4 40 13 55.4 2 0 300 31
Kyle Rudolph 49 71 495 10.1 5 47 4 30.9 0 0 211 25
Mike Wallace 39 72 473 12.1 2 34 6 29.6 0 0 157 27
Jarius Wright 34 49 442 13.0 0 52 4 27.6 1 1 173 25

Wright was targeted 49 times (as compared to Diggs 84). He did have the second highest yards per catch at 13.0 (compared to Diggs at 13.8 ), and also the longest catch at 52 yards. However, the number of 20+ yard catches was relatively low at 4 (compared to Diggs at 13), and his YAC per catch (YAC/receptions) was 5.1 (as compared to Diggs at 5.8 ).

It's hard for me to say how Wright's numbers compare to other #3 receivers in the NFL without looking at the production of his peers at the position, so instead I'll compare the top 4 Vikings receivers this year with the top 4 from last year. This will help put Johnson's production into context as well even though he was out most of this last season.

NAME REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Greg Jennings 59 92 742 12.6 6 38 9 46.4 1 0 195 40
Jarius Wright 42 62 588 14.0 2 87 9 36.8 0 0 333 25
Charles Johnson 31 58 475 15.3 2 56 9 39.6 1 0 163 19
Cordarrelle Patterson 33 67 384 11.6 1 28 4 24.0 0 0 168 20

A couple of interesting things here:

- Wright's production dropped between 2014 and 2015. Particularly notable is the drop in YAC. He went from 7.9 YAC/reception in 2015 to 5.1 in 2016. Same QB, same offensive coordinator. That is worrying to me.
- Johnson's production in 2014 wouldn't have made the top 4 receivers in 2015, although his average of 15.3 yards/catch was better than any Vikings WR in 2015. Still, not great stats for a guy who was the putative #2 receiver for an entire season.

In looking at how things evolved at WR between 2014 and 2015, it sure continues to look to me like the talent WR is a significant part of the passing game production problem. The Vikings got Rudolph back in 2015 and he rapidly became the team's second best receiver. Diggs, a 5th round pick who didn't start at the beginning of the season, easily became it's best receiver. Wright, the #2 guy in 2014, slipped to #3 in 2015. Patterson apparently was so bad he never really saw the field beyond kick returns.

I hope Spielman continues to look for opportunities to upgrade the WR position. Wallace really was not that good. Johnson isn't either despite his high average in 2014. This is definitely an area where a significant upgrade could do wonders for Bridgewater's development IMHO.

mansquatch wrote:Teddy's stat line for 2015 wasn't terrible. He had over 3000 yards passing with only 30 more attempts than he had in 2014. (in 3 more games.) I am sure a big part of that is the impact of #28. Also, despite 3 MORE games he had 25% FEWER INT, going from 12 to 9. IMO, this is his most important statistic of the year.

However, this thread is about TB improving, so lets just cut to the chase. Teddy's yardage, completion %, velocity numbers, and whatever the heck else are really just dodging the question. TB had 14TD in 2014 and 14TD in 2015 despite 3 more games played. That is the stat that needs to get better.

We lost three games this year against teams who all played last weekend and in each case it came down to either a missed field goal or in the case of AZ, bad blocking before being able to attempt the FG. In each case a scoring play by TB would have sealed the deal long before the kicking game could becoming an issue.

Before getting in the dumps, we should relish the fact that we played those three games that tight. That means we are contenders and not pretenders. Heck if two of those games go the other way we could have been playing last weekend and possibly playing at home. Making just 3-4 more plays were the difference between a 3 seed and a 2 seed, a big reason why I think overall this team as of right now is a legitimate superbowl contender in 2016. (injuries and all that not withstanding)

A note here, we have all kinds of plays, especially in the passing game where we are not making it happen. So while I said 3-4 more plays above, the fact is we are not making every play (most teams don't) so this team has not achieved it's ceiling. In line with this thread, the passing game probably has more than it's fair share of opportunity.

TB needs to get better at scoring in the passing game which means being a better red zone passer. He has shown that he has the gusto and composure to not torpedo a game against a high quality opponent. (That is huge, btw, look at what Carson Palmer almost did to the Cardinals on Saturday) Now he needs to show that he can make plays and win games vs. just not losing. That to me is the area to improve for next year. How he does it is a good question. I think that protection is probably a significant part of the problem though. I had a sens that as the year went on TB got "used" to his blocking breaking down and thus was more likely to scramble if he felt like it was going to fall apart. I gave him a bit of a pass on the happy feet thing since more often than not the protection was a disaster.

I agree with you but the whole "3 more plays" stuff gets old because if it wasn't for bridgewater on about 3-4 plays we lose the first Bears game and the other one that I cant think of right now and we go 9-7 and maybe miss the playoffs.

Here's a stat for you. Teddy's (Vikings) win percentage when the other team is held to under 17 points. 78%. Now this is about 10 percentage points above Brady and the Patriots and just about every other team not named the Seahawks(79%). However, were Teddy has to improve is in the games were the other team scores more than 17 points. And for that to happen he needs more TD's passes. So he needs about 5.5-6% td ratio per attempts. Roughly 24 TDs at 450 attempts per year. How he gets that is what's going to matter.

VikingLord wrote: NAME REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Greg Jennings 59 92 742 12.6 6 38 9 46.4 1 0 195 40
Jarius Wright 42 62 588 14.0 2 87 9 36.8 0 0 333 25
Charles Johnson 31 58 475 15.3 2 56 9 39.6 1 0 163 19
Cordarrelle Patterson 33 67 384 11.6 1 28 4 24.0 0 0 168 20

A couple of interesting things here:

- Wright's production dropped between 2014 and 2015. Particularly notable is the drop in YAC. He went from 7.9 YAC/reception in 2015 to 5.1 in 2016. Same QB, same offensive coordinator. That is worrying to me.

You have to remember Wright had that long td in overtime against the Jets in 2014 which skews the YAC stat a bit. Not sure exactly how long it was, but let's say 90. If you take that 1 reception away, his YAC is 5.9 which then isn't that huge of a difference.

VikingLord wrote: - Wright's production dropped between 2014 and 2015. Particularly notable is the drop in YAC. He went from 7.9 YAC/reception in 2015 to 5.1 in 2016. Same QB, same offensive coordinator. That is worrying to me.

I think you've answered your questions about the passing game right there, Edward. I don't see the WRs as being a problem and I feel the film backs me up on that. I've looked at all the games on coaches tape and I'm not seeing that much inventiveness in the playcalling or in putting the speedy WRs in a position to run after a catch.

VikingLord wrote:I hope Spielman continues to look for opportunities to upgrade the WR position. Wallace really was not that good. Johnson isn't either despite his high average in 2014. This is definitely an area where a significant upgrade could do wonders for Bridgewater's development IMHO.

Johnson didn't play enough to make an assessment on him in 2015. Patterson sat on the bench for the most part as well. If you're looking for a guy who can make yardage once he touches the ball, CP is about as good as it gets.

The upgrades that would really help Bridgewater is improving the offensive line and his own technique. Fix all of that first and I'll bet the passing game will improve. YMMV

losperros wrote:I think you've answered your questions about the passing game right there, Edward. I don't see the WRs as being a problem and I feel the film backs me up on that. I've looked at all the games on coaches tape and I'm not seeing that much inventiveness in the playcalling or in putting the speedy WRs in a position to run after a catch.

I haven't watched the coach's tape, so I'll have to take your word on it, but it sure seems like Diggs was head and tails better at creating yardage after the catch than the other guys, including Wright. It strikes me as strange that one guy can manage to do that given the same playcalling, QB, and OC, while none of the others did much of it. And even though I didn't watch the coach's tape, based just on what I saw during the year, the WRs not named Diggs seemed to do relatively little with the ball in their hands save the second game against Chicago where they did well as a group.

losperros wrote: Johnson didn't play enough to make an assessment on him in 2015. Patterson sat on the bench for the most part as well. If you're looking for a guy who can make yardage once he touches the ball, CP is about as good as it gets.

The upgrades that would really help Bridgewater is improving the offensive line and his own technique. Fix all of that first and I'll bet the passing game will improve. YMMV

Patterson not seeing the field is a mystery to me. Seems like they could design plays that can get the ball to him and give him a chance to use his outstanding running abilities.

Improving the Oline should definitely be a priority and it seems like the Vikings agree with that. I hope it continues during the offseason in the player personnel department, as well as hoping that the Vikes get their injured vets back and performing at a high level.

I'd still like to see Spielman grab a bona fide receiver as well if one is available. I would not consider it a wasted pick if he used his 1st or 2nd on one provided it's the right guy.

VikingLord wrote:I haven't watched the coach's tape, so I'll have to take your word on it, but it sure seems like Diggs was head and tails better at creating yardage after the catch than the other guys, including Wright.

The difference in average yards gained after catch between Wright and Diggs could have been made up by just one more 30 yard run after catch by Wright, who has proven himself capable of such plays. It's not a substantial enough difference for me to agree that Diggs was head and tails better at creating yardage after the catch. YAC gains have a lot to do with routes, coverage, blocking, pass placement, etc. We all know that not every pass offers the same opportunity for a gain after the catch so without looking more closely at the plays themselves, it's almost impossible to draw a reliable conclusion from the stats alone.

Patterson not seeing the field is a mystery to me. Seems like they could design plays that can get the ball to him and give him a chance to use his outstanding running abilities.

Improving the Oline should definitely be a priority and it seems like the Vikings agree with that. I hope it continues during the offseason in the player personnel department, as well as hoping that the Vikes get their injured vets back and performing at a high level.

I'd still like to see Spielman grab a bona fide receiver as well if one is available. I would not consider it a wasted pick if he used his 1st or 2nd on one provided it's the right guy.

I wouldn't either, especially if they don't bring Wallace back and don't get Patterson more involved. At that point, if the practical receiving corps is basically Diggs, Wright, Johnson and Thielen, adding a quality receiver would be a need. There's an argument to be made that it's a need anyway although I tend to agree with Craig that improving the o-line and Bridgewater's own performance would make a big difference. The Vikes certainly don't have an elite receiver but they have talent at receiver and they haven't done a great job of getting the most of it.

IrishViking wrote: I agree with you but the whole "3 more plays" stuff gets old because if it wasn't for bridgewater on about 3-4 plays we lose the first Bears game and the other one that I cant think of right now and we go 9-7 and maybe miss the playoffs.

My point isn't that the "3 more plays" means "3 more plays from Teddy". (Your Chicago example is appropriate, he also made plays to put us in position to win the playoff game against SEA, I think we agree here.) It is that we were 3-4 more plays from winning those games. I do not care who those extra plays come from, but the productivity of the passing game is probably the weakest part of the Vikings right now and thus presents the biggest opportunity to find those 3-4 more plays. So from that perspective this thread is appropriate.

On the Mechanics thing, I think he can change. Rogers actually went through mechanics change when he was drafted. McCarthy sent him to his "QB School" and asked him to work on adjusting his release point by something like 1/4" or 1/2" amongst other things. Rogers rode the bench for 4 years, so he had a lot of time to do that sort of stuff. Rogers has also been quoted as saying this time and these changes helped him. So it is certainly possible, albeit Teddy is in a different set of circumstances. I do not doubt that improvement in his mechanics would make him a better QB, but I'm not sold on the idea that better mechanics on their own will translate to significantly more scores, especially in the red zone. 14 TDs is REALLY low. It wouldn't be out of the question to ask him to double that number. I'm not sold on mechanics accounting for all 14 TDs.

The really hard thing to analyze is how much of Teddy's play was due to Teddy and how much due to the worst pass protection the league. I'm sure both are at fault, but it is very hard to quantify how much one area is at fault vs. the other.

I agree, I wasn't tossing out your argument, sorry if it sounded that way. Just commenting on, basically what you explained, that its such an inexact resource that it can be used to make any player sound great or bad IE; Kalil made these three key blocks that won use these 2 games, Peterson made these 3 bad reads that cost us this game, etc, etc.