Mock Offseason

[mondry]

You mentioned hindsight and that gets back to what I was talking about in the draft section a while back: the significance of results. Many people perceived Ponder as a reach, and he likely was a reach, but that wouldn't have mattered much if he'd developed into a better QB. In contrast, when the Bears drafted Kyle Long last year, it was widely perceived as a reach but so far, Long has played like he was worth the pick. The Bears clearly had him rated high enough on their board to take him and even though many draftniks and fans didn't consider Long worthy of the Bears pick at the time, who knows where he was rated on other boards?

Personally, I've never felt that reaching in the draft was a particularly egregious mistake unless it's a BIG reach with a low probability of success. I really do think teams need to trust their evaluations and act accordingly.

I think the thing most people take issue with when it comes to "reaching" is the inherent risk that increases in correlation with how big the reach is. To clarify, again, I'm not talking about what the ESPN talking head thinks, but the actual draft board. The Kyle Long thing is interesting but it's possible he was their #1 player available on their board so again, it's hard to say they reached on him.

Again, your last paragraph here leads me to think you're using a different version of reach. If a team sticks to their evaluations / boards it's not reaching!

[Mothman]

I think the thing most people take issue with when it comes to "reaching" is the inherent risk that increases in correlation with how big the reach is. To clarify, again, I'm not talking about what the ESPN talking head thinks, but the actual draft board. The Kyle Long thing is interesting but it's possible he was their #1 player available on their board so again, it's hard to say they reached on him.

Again, your last paragraph here leads me to think you're using a different version of reach. If a team sticks to their evaluations / boards it's not reaching!

You and I might agree on that but I don't think everybody does and that's what I was referring to in that paragraph. I should have put "reaching" in quotes like you did above.

[VikingLord]

That's not really the point. Of course you can form an opinion without it being considered hubris but it's hubris to make declarations like "Unless Bridgewater or Manziel is there at #8, Spielman would prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that his evaluation framework is either completely whacked or non-existent" or "Not only does Spielman get no real help at QB OR anywhere else on the team with that high pick, but he's now in a position where the new coach is going to be under intense pressure to start a guy who will be lucky to be a journeyman backup over his entire career" (which you made in regard to Garoppolo) when you've clearly seen very little of some of the players in question and you're citing an amateur site like Walter Football as an example of the basis you use to form such definitive and dismissive views.

It's not hubris to state a fact, and the fact is *most* QB's drafted end up as no better than journeyman QB's in the pros.

You could make the exact same statements about Manziel, one of the two QBs you've declared worthy of the #8 pick and, in fact, good ol' Walter calls JFB's footwork and mechanics into question too and says he also needs to be "more uniform".

So much for ringing endorsements. If drafting Bortles is "akin to experimenting with a pick that should be about as sure-fire as they come" then how would drafting Manziel, who has numerous question marks attached to him, be safer? In terms of risky picks in the top 10, he has risk written all over him! He certainly doesn't seem to fit with the idea that a GM be as risk-averse as possible with a top 10 pick in a draft.

Does Manziel still have questions around him? Absolutely. I never said he didn't, and in fact in another thread I said I wasn't sold on him at #8 even if he's there. But, for the questions that surround the dude, he also demonstrated a few things in his 2 years of college play. Namely, he spent an obviously socially booked offseason specifically addressing the concerns many had raised about his play during his freshman year. He showed he could throw from the pocket in addition to scrambling and running. He showed he could distribute the ball and hit all areas of the field effectively. He showed he could compete in big games and was consistent. When I watch him play, I don't see some of the fundamental issues these other guys have. Now that's just my layman's opinion, and I don't think its worth getting too worked up over, but in my view the two guys in this draft who have successfully addressed most of the concerns about them out there are clearly Manziel and Bridgewater.

The framework necessary to keep a more open mind about this draft is clearly there. All I'm asking you to do is see it and be a little more open to some of the possibilities that may be available to the Vikes.

Open minded is fine, but I could see you saying exactly this after the Ponder pick, or the Freeman acquisition. IMHO, this is not a random game. There are markers there that indicate a higher likelihood of success. There are teams that convince themselves they can make certain guys work when there are better options on the board. And the teams that ignore the markers and successfully convince themselves via the open mind approach are typically the ones that continue to struggle to find answers at critical positions.

As for Ponder being a reach, he was a reach. Nobody had him going at #12 or had him ranked anywhere near the 12th player in the draft where he was taken. If Spielman had Ponder rated that high, once again, it calls into serious question how he and his staff evaluate talent. I may not be able to convince you of that, but the results speak for themselves, and if you really think Spielman will survive another ill-advised gamble at #8 in this draft, I don't know what to say.

[Mothman]

It's not hubris to state a fact, and the fact is *most* QB's drafted end up as no better than journeyman QB's in the pros.

Well, in that case, it's a fact that Bridgewater and Manziel will be lucky to be journeyman backups in the pros as well. You're falling back on a generalization to justify your assessment of a specific player but the generalization applies to all of them.

As for the rest... it's been a spirited discussion but you're clearly entrenched in your assessment of the QBs in this draft and there's obviously nothing I can post that's going to change that. Let's just hope that whatever happens, it works out well for the Vikings.

[VikingLord]

Well, in that case, it's a fact that Bridgewater and Manziel will be lucky to be journeyman backups in the pros as well. You're falling back on a generalization to justify your assessment of a specific player but the generalization applies to all of them.

But all things aren't equal. While most are more likely to be journeyman backups than not, it's not a level field. Bridgewater and Manziel have answered more questions coming out, and because more of the picture is filled in for those two prospects, they justify the higher draft position.

For whatever reason, it seems I hit a nerve when it comes to my assessment of Garoppolo. I admitted I haven't seen all that many highlights of the guy. What I have seen suggests he's fared well against a lower level of college competition. He comes out of the same school that Tony Romo came out of, and Romo has had success as a pro. I also know that Garoppolo was not heavily recruited out of high school. IIRC, he wasn't offered a scholarship at any Division I college program. His overall stats while at Eastern Illinois don't exactly knock my socks off when considered in the light of his college competition as compared to guys like Manziel and Bridgewater and their college competition. He has a career TD-INT ratio that is slightly better than 2-1. YPA at around 8 is OK, but not spectacular. There isn't a lot of evidence that he's capable of extending plays with his legs when the pocket breaks down. On the flip side, he's got a great release. His mechanics are pretty consistent. He seems capable of processing the field. It's not all bad, but does it justify the #8 slot in the draft, especially compared to guys like Manziel and Bridgewater who have much higher completion percentages, YPA, and TD-INT ratios against better competition? It doesn't. He's a 4th-round, developmental-type prospect in the pros. He could certainly develop and become a good pro. I'm not ruling that out. The odds don't favor it, though, and moreso for Garoppolo than guys like Manziel and Bridgewater.

An open mind is a good thing, but realism pays the bills.

As for the rest... it's been a spirited discussion but you're clearly entrenched in your assessment of the QBs in this draft and there's obviously nothing I can post that's going to change that. Let's just hope that whatever happens, it works out well for the Vikings.

I think that can be said about both of us, and I think we agree that whatever happens, we hope it happens for the best. Spielman's track record on this subject is not good, however, and if he holds true to form I'd say the odds of a reach at QB are pretty high, along with the odds of that guy, whoever he is, ultimately failing to justify the high expectations that go along with a high pick. But I'll keep my fingers crossed and try to adopt an attitude that is positive heading into this.

[Mothman]

An open mind is a good thing, but realism pays the bills.

The two aren't incompatible.

I think that can be said about both of us, and I think we agree that whatever happens, we hope it happens for the best. Spielman's track record on this subject is not good, however, and if he holds true to form I'd say the odds of a reach at QB are pretty high, along with the odds of that guy, whoever he is, ultimately failing to justify the high expectations that go along with a high pick. But I'll keep my fingers crossed and try to adopt an attitude that is positive heading into this

Based on that paragraph, it sounds like you'll have to work your way up to that positive attitude.

Spielman really doesn't have much of a track record when it comes to drafting QBs and overall, I think he's shown flexibility in the draft so to me, maintaining that flexibility would staying being true to form for him. It will be interesting to see what he does. His back was against the wall when he chose Ponder in a way that it I doubt it will be against the wall in this draft.