Vikings @ 49ers Game Day Discussion Thread -- Preseason #3

[Raptorman]

I stated coming into his 3rd year.

You are right, my view of Ponder hasn't changed. It wont until I see some consistency.

Ok so having 8-9 in the box every week shouldn't help a QB or the Vikings passing game? Why has every commentator on earth said it should? Even MN ones. I could explain the logic of it to you, but Im betting you know it better then I do.

And as far as the Oline, look at Rogers over the past few years. He does better under pressure, he doesn't melt. He consistently put ups good members.

As for your other excuses, I believe you forgot he missed his first years OTA's.

One of these days I will figure out how to block in the quotes. I somehow have got ad's to pop up and the text of words in others post to become highlights in trying to do so.

Let's look at Rodgers. Let's look at who he has been throwing the ball to the last few years. Donald Driver, James Jones, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson. Those 4 WR's have been his core WR since his first start in 2008. And if anyone doesn't think that gave him an edge they would be mistaken. Any QB that can have the same 4 WR start with him over 4 - 5 years is going to develop timing with them. Let's look at who Ponder has been throwing to. Harvin, Berrian, Aromashadou, Jenkins, an injured Simpson, and the last few games last year Wright. So Rodgers has what many would consider four good WR's for the most his last 5 years, and Ponder has had the luck of having one. I'll wait until the end of this year and see what Ponder does before I totally throw him under the bus. Rodgers also takes a lot of sacks and throws the ball away a lot. It's one of the reasons his INT percentage is so low, he doesn't try to force the ball in were he shouldn't be.

Peterson faced 8 in the box 34.48% of the plays he carried the ball. Figure the Vikings ran 969 offensive plays, Peterson face 8 in the Box 120 times that means Ponder saw 8 in the box at minimum 12.4% with Peterson running and maybe 15% total. One has to remember, Peterson is taken out on 3rd downs, a lot.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Let's look at Rodgers. Let's look at who he has been throwing the ball to the last few years. Donald Driver, James Jones, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson. Those 4 WR's have been his core WR since his first start in 2008. And if anyone doesn't think that gave him an edge they would be mistaken. Any QB that can have the same 4 WR start with him over 4 - 5 years is going to develop timing with them. Let's look at who Ponder has been throwing to. Harvin, Berrian, Aromashadou, Jenkins, an injured Simpson, and the last few games last year Wright. So Rodgers has what many would consider four good WR's for the most his last 5 years, and Ponder has had the luck of having one. I'll wait until the end of this year and see what Ponder does before I totally throw him under the bus. Rodgers also takes a lot of sacks and throws the ball away a lot. It's one of the reasons his INT percentage is so low, he doesn't try to force the ball in were he shouldn't be.

Peterson faced 8 in the box 34.48% of the plays he carried the ball. Figure the Vikings ran 969 offensive plays, Peterson face 8 in the Box 120 times that means Ponder saw 8 in the box at minimum 12.4% with Peterson running and maybe 15% total. One has to remember, Peterson is taken out on 3rd downs, a lot.

So if its just WRs, why hasn't Spielman and Fraizer figured this out? And Childress before them? Why waste all this time and more (and a 12th overall pick) on a QB?

Its always something other then Ponder with the apologists (isn't it fun getting labeled?).

There are quite a few things wrong with the Vikings, and has been for some time. The key player to have is a QB. That's fundamental. But the Vikings haven't found the answer. I don't think Ponder is the answer, I know Cassel isn't. I think this year should tell, but im afraid its going to go on for at least 1 more year.

[mondry]

The problem with that "nine in the box, he should have a field day" mentality is two fold. First, they put nine in the box because we often have nine or even more in the box. If we came out in a 4 WR set spread wide I promise you they wouldn't have nine in the box so realistically there is no benefit to the passing game as the defense is adapting to us and our blocking heavy formations and not the other way around.

Second, when it's 3rd down and 5+ AD doesn't mean a lick back there. Even the Vikings have to pass in that situation and that is the most often situation we pass in. In fact, it's pretty clear Peterson is often a liability on 3rd down with his poor hands and weak blitz pick up and other times he's taken off the field all together. If I'm a quarterback concerned about looking good I'd take Brandon Marshal over Adrian Peterson every time. Heck I'd take Forte over him too cause he can pass block and take my 2 yard dump offs / screen passes 80 yards and inflate my stats.

[vikes157]

I think everyone should just block purple koolaids posts. arguing with him is like arguing with a wall. let him complain to himself..

[Purple bruise]

The problem with that "nine in the box, he should have a field day" mentality is two fold. First, they put nine in the box because we often have nine or even more in the box. If we came out in a 4 WR set spread wide I promise you they wouldn't have nine in the box so realistically there is no benefit to the passing game as the defense is adapting to us and our blocking heavy formations and not the other way around.

Second, when it's 3rd down and 5+ AD doesn't mean a lick back there. Even the Vikings have to pass in that situation and that is the most often situation we pass in. In fact, it's pretty clear Peterson is often a liability on 3rd down with his poor hands and weak blitz pick up and other times he's taken off the field all together. If I'm a quarterback concerned about looking good I'd take Brandon Marshal over Adrian Peterson every time. Heck I'd take Forte over him too cause he can pass block and take my 2 yard dump offs / screen passes 80 yards and inflate my stats.

Excellent points and quite true I might add

[Purple bruise]

I think everyone should just block purple koolaids posts. arguing with him is like arguing with a wall. let him complain to himself..

How about one whole topic dedicated to the doomsdayers and cynics that they could go to and bash and complain about anything and everything Viking related

[Funkytown]

BUT...

If Flacco didn't perform like an elite QB in the playoffs, they wouldn't have won the superbowl. His post season numbers were godlike . Same with Ben, he turned it up when needed. Having a great QB can make up for the teams other deficiencies. Look at GB for the past couple of years. Imagine where they would be without Rodgers. If they had a decent running game or better defense, my guess it they would've been in the SB more often. So yes, it takes a team effort to win a SB, but having an elite QB increases your odds tremendously.

...and we need our odds increased tremendously!

Good post by the way. The Ravens were very much a mediocre team--and Flacco a mediocre QB at times--but he really turned it on when he had to. Without his "Godlike" numbers as you put it, they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl; that's for sure. They probably wouldn't have even gotten close to it!

I think Ponder's biggest problem is he lacks confidence. He just needs to put it all out there and see what the heck happens! Quit holding back! Let it fly!

[Raptorman]

So if its just WRs, why hasn't Spielman and Fraizer figured this out? And Childress before them? Why waste all this time and more (and a 12th overall pick) on a QB?

Its always something other then Ponder with the apologists (isn't it fun getting labeled?).

There are quite a few things wrong with the Vikings, and has been for some time. The key player to have is a QB. That's fundamental. But the Vikings haven't found the answer. I don't think Ponder is the answer, I know Cassel isn't. I think this year should tell, but im afraid its going to go on for at least 1 more year.

Ok, let me explain this real slow. It's not just the QB. It's not just the WR's. It's not just he RB in the backfield. It's not just the O-line. It's all of them working together. Now, if you don't have good WR's it makes it harder for the QB and the RB because the defense can tee off on them. If the O-line leaks like a sieve, then it matters not that Rodgers is your QB, because he is going to get sacked. If you have good WR's and the QB sucks, then the WR's won't do well. Change one thing and it matters to how the others are played. There is a reason the Packers drafted to RB's this year, because their running game sucked. Not that it's all on the RB, their O-line does a crapping job of run blocking. I can't think of the last time I saw anyone respect the Packers running game. Even Packer fans complain about it.

The key players is the QB. Other than Ponder, which QB over the last 6 years, that would have been available to the Vikings, would you rather have?

[vikeinmontana]

How about one whole topic dedicated to the doomsdayers and cynics that they could go to and bash and complain about anything and everything Viking related

nah. they're just fine just like everyone else here. I disagree with their views more than I probably agree but they add to the board like everyone else. they're right about things sometimes and other times they are way over the top. just like others here but in the other direction.

[The Breeze]

@Jim: Thanks for posting those stats....as i didn't have time to look em up.


@Raptorman: I knew you got that point I was just expanding some.

@808: Yes, Flacco had an amazing playoff run, so did Eli,twice even....and both of them have been in the league a helluva lot longer than Ponder. And both were much maligned at times for crumpling when it counted.


And for those who like to believe that AD just had the 'best season eva'. Consider that he was actualy tied for 8th all time, with Marcus Allen, in yards from srimmage by a RB in a season. The way they use him causes the liabilty, because, for whatever reason they use him like a one trick pony. Sure it's a great trick....but he does little at all to help the passing game... because they don't involve him in it!
Tomlinson, Faulk, Roger Craig, Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Thurman Thomas etc....all great runners who got plenty of looks receiving which helped open up their respective offenses even more.

It blows my mind how it never seems as if they have any pass plays drawn up for him....just check down passes. I don't think he's the best blocker, but he can catch. And I honestly believe that a 2yd pass to him has a chance for a better net gain than one to Carlson or Rudolph. But beyond the 2yd pass, motioning him out of the backfield and making him a concern to catch a ball 10-15yds downfield would have a definite effect on defenses.....if only for the fact that they've rarely ever seen it.

[Reignman]

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 61a9b49b66

From the ref's spot, looks like 6 inches and that precious "no TD passes over 20 yards" would have went bye bye! But it's better for their arguments if we pretend plays like this never happened with a cherry picked stat!

Right! It's the naysayers that have to cherry pick stats to prove how bad Ponder is . Try again. Sorry my friend but there are a plethora of stats that prove how terrible Ponder is and none of them have to be twisted. But as long as we're dissecting that 54yd pass. Maybe if he hit Wright in stride he would have ended up with the grand total of 1 TD pass over 20 yards instead of 0. No instead it was slightly under thrown and Wright had to turn around. Wright had his guy beat by a couple of steps and you can't say Ponder had any pressure. Oh and did you see that ballerina like hand grenade throw too? I think the ball is too heavy for him because he tried to shot put it down field.

LOL! My mind went straight to that play when I saw the stat too. It just shows how insignificant a stat like that is...

Aromashodu had a chance to catch a long TD pass against the Bears too and couldn't make the catch. It wouldn't have been easy but it was a catchable pass.

That's amazing how you can remember all these almost catches and woulda beens, but can't remember all the actual horrible passes. How bout this doozie from the Skins game.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/washington-re ... s-pick-six

Literally a 5 yard check down that sails over Jenkins head. Do tell us how the blocking was horrible and Jenkins ran the wrong route. And we all remember that nice rainbow that hit the defender in the back at Lambeau when AD had his guy beat by 5 yards.

If he develops that habit (and the OL can give him more than a couple of seconds to throw) he can be a solid QB for us. We're going to find out (for real) in a couple of weeks...

Yeah only if. In the perfect scenario that you guys dream up for Ponder, any of us could go in and look like a solid QB.

So it's even better than 74% on check downs, it's 100% on intermediate passes LOL

Nobody is claiming he can't hit a target every now and then, it's the lack of consistency that's the problem. I mean do you guys not see the sails, the under throws, and the way off targets? Wow he hits a guy 15 yards down field once or twice a game as opposed to the 10-15 times every other QB does. Got it, side effects of purple shades may include, lower bar syndrome

Which just reinforces the point I made earlier: that stat about TD passes of over 20 yards has as much to do with the receivers as with the quarterback.

Right! Which is more likely, 8 guys are always running the wrong routes or 1 guy is just terribly inaccurate? See Occam's razor.

If people are freaking out about Ponder now I can't wait till the season actually starts (hint: sarcasm). Jeeze.

Right! It's just now we're freaking out. Did you watch him play last year? I think I discovered another side effect of purple shades, short term memory problems. Seems to be rampant among Ponder apologists. Anyone keeping track of these side effects? We better report them to the moderators, or the CDC, or something.

The comparison between Cutler and Ponder's stats is interesting, but I'm curious as to what Cutler's stats were for his first full season and how they compare to Ponder last year.

Except nobody is advocating for Cutler. Now lets compare him to a QB that actually has a chance of leading his team to a bowl.

How many QBs did Walter Payton or Barry Sanders make look good? Answer is ZERO.

Different era, the rules have changed considerably favoring the passing offense since those guys played. But Scott Mitchell looked pretty good for a few years with Sanders. Scott F'ing Mitchell!

This whole idea that AD's presence somehow means a QB should automatically destroy defenses is a serious oversimplification.

Where has anyone asked for Ponder to destroy defenses? We're saying he should be able to complete more than 2 15 yard passes a game with all that single coverage. Do you really think we're going to win a super bowl with a guy that can't consistently hit targets down field? Hey we're down 2 scores late, lets see if check down Charlie can wing us back into the game. Not! With Ponder we're always going to have to hope we're leading or the score is close.

Rodgers puts up better numbers for two reasons: 1.) He's better. He's more talented, he's more experienced, he's simply better.

I found my new signature.

I think everyone should just block purple koolaids posts. arguing with him is like arguing with a wall. let him complain to himself..

I think we should block anyone who only complains about other posters and doesn't contribute to the conversation. But yeah, make sure you don't block the pulitzer winning material that Purple bruise has blessed us with.

How about one whole topic dedicated to the doomsdayers and cynics that they could go to and bash and complain about anything and everything Viking related

Yeah, because that's what we're doing. Bashing anything and everything Vikings How about a whole topic dedicated to delusion so the Ponder lovers can talk about how many Lombardi's he's going to win for us.

...and we need our odds increased tremendously!

Here's someone that gets it lol. Tremendously with a capital T.

The key players is the QB. Other than Ponder, which QB over the last 6 years, that would have been available to the Vikings, would you rather have?

Should we list them alphabetically or?

because, for whatever reason they use him (AD) like a one trick pony. Sure it's a great trick....but he does little at all to help the passing game... because they don't involve him in it!

Now look up WCO and ask yourself if you really believe we're running the WCO.

[Raptorman]

Should we list them alphabetically or?

Yes, please do. I want to see your list. Remember, they have to be QB's that the Vikings had a reasonable chance of getting. I'll wait.

[Purple bruise]

]

The only QBs since 2006 that I can think of that the Vikings had a reasonable chance of getting are Cutler, Cassel, Schaub and Flynn via trade and Dalton and Kaepernick in the draft.

Cassel and Flynn suck and when Houston got Schaub, T-Jack was just selected in the 2nd round the previous year and only had 2 throw away games under his belt.

If we had made the Cutler trade we'd have given up Harvin, Asher Allen and Chris Cook (traded out of the 1st that year but he was essentially who that pick was used on.) We also didn't have the Kyle Orton to give back unless Denver would have wanted T-Jack or Booty.

I said it before but I rather have reached for Dalton than Ponder in 2011. Kaepernick would've been considered a bigger reach than Ponder at the time.[/quote]

That is not much of a list, remembering that the Broncos jettisoned Cutler and his attitude sucked (albiet it seems to have improved).
Maybe Dalton, he has a whole lot better receivers than Ponder has had. I would definately take a pass on Flynn he seems like a flash in the pan very similar to Cassel. Schaub's career would be over as stationary as he is standing behind the Vikes sieve o-line and their crappy (never get open receivers). Just sayin....

[dead_poet]

Right! It's the naysayers that have to cherry pick stats to prove how bad Ponder is Sorry my friend but there are a plethora of stats that prove how terrible Ponder is and none of them have to be twisted.

Pretty sure there are stats for both supporters (sorry, "apologists") and detractors. Haven't there been ample tossed around by both sides as we discuss the Ponder Conundrum? While stats can't be taken at face value and can be interpreted many different ways, you can't dismiss facts that don't support your argument as "twisted" and claim others are gospel. Sorry, it doesn't work like that.

But as long as we're dissecting that 54yd pass. Maybe if he hit Wright in stride he would have ended up with the grand total of 1 TD pass over 20 yards instead of 0. No instead it was slightly under thrown and Wright had to turn around. Wright had his guy beat by a couple of steps and you can't say Ponder had any pressure. Oh and did you see that ballerina like hand grenade throw too? I think the ball is too heavy for him because he tried to shot put it down field.

You realize you're nit-picking/complaining about a 54-yard completion, right? I'm impressed with your level of curmudgeonry.

In the perfect scenario that you guys dream up for Ponder, any of us could go in and look like a solid QB.

You're very good at the reductio ad absurdum argument, I'll give you that.

Nobody is claiming he can't hit a target every now and then, it's the lack of consistency that's the problem.

Agreed. Though, I hope you'd agree that consistency in all offensive phases has been suspect.

I mean do you guys not see the sails, the under throws, and the way off targets?

Do you also see the balls that are perfectly placed? The good throws he has during games? Personally, I see inconsistency; great throws and poor ones. He's capable of both at any time and may be more dependent on help from his line and receivers than, say, a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, mostly because he's not as talented. But just because he's not a future Hall of Famer, doesn't mean he's awful or can't be successful. In theory, he has potentially better offensive weapons this season (though his pass protection remains sketchy at best), so I'd like to see what he does with greater receiving help (though I've made the case that this group of receivers has the potential to be worse than last season).

I think it's hard to get past your own bias sometimes. You see what you want to see.

Wow he hits a guy 15 yards down field once or twice a game as opposed to the 10-15 times every other QB does. Got it, side effects of purple shades may include, lower bar syndrome

It all depends on your perception and expectations.

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/ ... er/n11825/

Right! Which is more likely, 8 guys are always running the wrong routes or 1 guy is just terribly inaccurate? See Occam's razor.

You're smarter than this. An unsuccessful pass play has more components than simply an inaccurate throw or a wrong route. Pass-protection, receivers' intelligence/ability to improvise if protection falls down, ability to create separation all play a role, wouldn't you agree? I really wish someone would chart each of Ponder's throws last season to determine the "fault" (if it can be placed on one individual) for the failed attempts (though you would need to see the entire field).

It should also be noted that Ponder's completion percentage in 2012 (62.1%) ranked him 13th in the league, ahead of the likes of Stafford, Eli Manning, Flacco, Cutler, & Newton. I know, I know, "But he just threw checkdowns and two-yard passes!" The fact remains, that is the statistic.

Right! It's just now we're freaking out. Did you watch him play last year? I think I discovered another side effect of purple shades, short term memory problems.

Again, it's seeing what you want to see. Ponder had some efficient games. Stating or assuming otherwise is just being ignorant.

Except nobody is advocating for Cutler. Now lets compare him to a QB that actually has a chance of leading his team to a bowl.

Didn't somebody compare some numbers to Rodgers?

Where has anyone asked for Ponder to destroy defenses? We're saying he should be able to complete more than 2 15 yard passes a game with all that single coverage.

Then you're in luck!

2012 Game #1:
1st and 10 at MIN 24 C.Ponder pass right to K.Rudolph to MIN 39 for 15 yards (K.Bosworth; R.Allen).
1st and 10 at MIN 41 (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass left to P.Harvin to JAX 43 for 16 yards (A.Ross).
2nd and 2 at JAC 19 (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass right to M.Jenkins to JAX 5 for 14 yards (A.Ross).
1st and 10 at JAC 25 C.Ponder pass middle to P.Harvin to JAX 6 for 19 yards (D.Lowery).
1st and 10 at MIN 23 C.Ponder pass right to M.Jenkins to MIN 38 for 15 yards (R.Allen; C.Mosley).
3rd and 8 at JAC 32 (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass deep left to K.Rudolph to JAX 3 for 29 yards (K.Rutland).
2nd and 5 at MIN 25 C.Ponder pass right to M.Jenkins ran ob at MIN 41 for 16 yards.
2nd and 9 at JAC 38 C.Ponder pass left to D.Aromashodu to JAX 20 for 18 yards (R.Allen).
1st and 10 at MIN 31 C.Ponder pass deep right to D.Aromashodu to JAX 43 for 26 yards (M.Owens).
1st and 10 at JAC 42 C.Ponder pass deep right to D.Aromashodu pushed ob at JAX 25 for 17 yards (D.Landry).

Do you really think we're going to win a super bowl with a guy that can't consistently hit targets down field? Hey we're down 2 scores late, lets see if check down Charlie can wing us back into the game. Not! With Ponder we're always going to have to hope we're leading or the score is close.

Ponder has already shown he has the ability to help the team win while playing from behind. I think we'd all prefer the team is never behind, though. And this is an area that Ponder could improve, no question. But I hope you'll agree that it takes more than a couple of seasons for any quarterback to develop this skill, much less be known for their "comeback" ability. I doubt that even Joe Montana was adept at this after only two seasons (I haven't looked at his comeback stats from 1979/80, so I could be proven wrong).

Now look up WCO and ask yourself if you really believe we're running the WCO.

It is not, by definition, a WCO. But it's certainly not a vertical scheme. It has more in common with a WCO, however.

[Mothman]

Where has anyone asked for Ponder to destroy defenses?

PurpleKoolaid did, on the previous page. That's why I was posting about it. He used the phrase "tear up" instead of the word "destroy" but in this context, they're essentially synonymous. Here's the comment (emphasis mine):

AD should make a below average QB, look at least average. Even with average WRs. That's what the Vikes have for sure this year, and had for a few years. A good QB would tear up Ds with AD back there, esp. if he was coming into his 3rd year.