2018 Offense Autopsy Redux - What really went wrong?

[Pondering Her Percy]

The fastest sack by the Pats occured 3.4 seconds after the ball was snapped, plenty of time to make multiple reads. Cousins also took more time to throw than Brady in that game on average. Maybe Brady could have lit a campfire after he snapped the ball, but based on his incredibly low time to throw, he feared our pass rush.

You're looking at just sacks. It's the overall amount of pressure they are bringing along with what they are doing with Diggs and Thielen. Again, that was a game where BB dominated anything JDF threw at him (other than the run but Flip was too clueless to keep giving Cook the ball). Bottom line was (and I've said this a ridiculous amount of times this year) they KNEW what we were doing. Just like Seattle did. Flip was predictable and also didnt run the ball. To say he should have been "good enough" for Cousins is completely false. He was that damn bad to be honest.

Please read and go to the link because they show actual snapshots of what was going on:

Kyle Van Noy knew the Patriots had Kirk Cousins out of sorts.

The Patriots came into their matchup with the Vikings armed with perhaps their most creative defensive game plan of the season, and it confounded Cousins. Van Noy could sense it.

"Yeah," Van Noy said. "You could tell he was having a tough time reading what we were doing."

What exactly did the Patriots do to confound a quarterback whose brains helped him sign a record-setting contract this offseason? They wandered about in the box, not allowing Cousins to figure out what was coming. It was an amorphous front.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patrio ... ns-vikings

[StumpHunter]

The fastest sack by the Pats occured 3.4 seconds after the ball was snapped, plenty of time to make multiple reads. Cousins also took more time to throw than Brady in that game on average. Maybe Brady could have lit a campfire after he snapped the ball, but based on his incredibly low time to throw, he feared our pass rush.

You're looking at just sacks. It's the overall amount of pressure they are bringing along with what they are doing with Diggs and Thielen. Again, that was a game where BB dominated anything JDF threw at him (other than the run but Flip was too clueless to keep giving Cook the ball). Bottom line was (and I've said this a ridiculous amount of times this year) they KNEW what we were doing. Just like Seattle did. Flip was predictable and also didnt run the ball. To say he should have been "good enough" for Cousins is completely false. He was that damn bad to be honest.

Please read and go to the link because they show actual snapshots of what was going on:

Kyle Van Noy knew the Patriots had Kirk Cousins out of sorts.

The Patriots came into their matchup with the Vikings armed with perhaps their most creative defensive game plan of the season, and it confounded Cousins. Van Noy could sense it.

"Yeah," Van Noy said. "You could tell he was having a tough time reading what we were doing."

What exactly did the Patriots do to confound a quarterback whose brains helped him sign a record-setting contract this offseason? They wandered about in the box, not allowing Cousins to figure out what was coming. It was an amorphous front.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patrio ... ns-vikings

Yea, this article says what I did. That Pats disguised their coverages and confused our QB. Forcing him to take longer to get rid of the ball and allowing the Pats more time to pressure him. Honestly, that is not really an indictment on either the QB or OC, since the Pats do this to almost everyone.

[StumpHunter]

If I look at our losses (and the tie) there are some obvious trends:

Tie vs. GB: Special Team disaster
Loss vs. LAR: Defense was terrible (Offense was actually very good in this game, Cousins was outstanding)
Loss vs. BUF: 1st half game plan on offense was a complete disaster
Loss vs. NO: 2 uncharacteristic mistakes by Diggs and Thielen cost us this game. Offense and Defense solid otherswise
1st Loss vs. CHI: Mistakes on offense, Offense couldn't get going in 1st half at all, Defense surrendered 13 points early. Joint effort of suck here. Will give JDF pass to some degree on this game, the Bears defense was tough on everyone last year.
Loss vs. NE: BB Owned JDF. Total game planning disaster
Loss vs. SEA: SEA copied NE Template, owned JDF
2nd loss vs. CHI: Not enough gas on offense, Defense eventually wore down

Last season was about early mistakes by each phase of the game in the first four weeks.

Buffalo was almost all on the Oline. We still probably win that without the distraction of Griffen.

Diggs didn't screw up on that pick six versus NOs. He stops there on that route all the time, and the only reason this time resulted in a pick six is because the QB threw a sidearm pass around a defensive lineman to a WR he couldn't see.

Both losses to the Bears were on the offense. Any game the defense gives up fewer than 20 pts, I have a hard time blaming the D. Especially when the D turns the Bears over 3 times.

The losses to NE and SEA the offense couldn't overcome the scheme they played against.

I don't think anyone will dispute the offense is to blame for almost all of our losses. They were by far the weakest part of the team and there were a lot of issues besides the OC.

[WallytheVike]

Excellent post mansquatch! Very well thought out. I agree with pretty much everything here.

Nice to hear from knowledgeable Vikings fans. Like you guys have said if they don't have the cap space to bring in a free agent then we'll just have to take care of things using the draft. I'd absolutely hate to see us trade one of our top CB's because there's a lot of O-Lineman available this years draft. I wouldn't mind seeing them use there first 3 or 4 draft picks to get those offensive lineman. If we need to move down to do it I'm fine with that maybe we can pick up another draft pick by moving down.

[CharVike]

Great post and very well thought out. The Pats have a great organization no doubt. But they always have an easy road. Look at that division. BB dominates it. It's a cake walk and he's able to rest and develop his team for the late season push. That's a huge advantage. Us and the Pack had to travel to their place. We stuck with them but came up short. Send them to us and GB it changes the whole thing. But our O has many problems and the OL is only the beginning. Our TE is terrible but there's nothing in the hole. I could go on.

Been down this road before. The Pats division really isn't any different than any other one. At least as I remember the numbers. Maybe I will have to do the math again. The only difference is that they are always the team on top rather than a rotation of teams at the top.

The Pats division is no different. Look at the QBs they face. Nothing. You don't need math for that.

[StumpHunter]

Been down this road before. The Pats division really isn't any different than any other one. At least as I remember the numbers. Maybe I will have to do the math again. The only difference is that they are always the team on top rather than a rotation of teams at the top.

The Pats division is no different. Look at the QBs they face. Nothing. You don't need math for that.

QBs don't really have an impact on wins or losses. It is all about how good the OC and Oline coach are.

Or so I hear.

[CharVike]

The Pats division is no different. Look at the QBs they face. Nothing. You don't need math for that.

QBs don't really have an impact on wins or losses. It is all about how good the OC and Oline coach are.

Or so I hear.

That seems to be the take around hear. And this Shurmur stuff gets old also. His great O couldn't do a thing in the playoffs. Nothing except for some miracle.

[mansquatch]

So I take the time to make a post about my views of the offensive coaching staff and 4 pages in my idea is now being restated as something akin to "The OC is responsible for everything. He is the ONLY reason we lost in 2018." Seriously? I'm not even going to bother to defend against that because it is so stupid.

At the risk of feeding the trolls: Can anyone make a compelling case that the OC and OL Coach's death didn't have a major impact on the results of the season? I've yet to see that post, just more hyperbole and baseless statements? I guess for some the preferred depth of analysis is "player X sucks, GM Y dumb, Headcoach Z stupid."

[mansquatch]

QBs don't really have an impact on wins or losses. It is all about how good the OC and Oline coach are.

Or so I hear.

That seems to be the take around hear. And this Shurmur stuff gets old also. His great O couldn't do a thing in the playoffs. Nothing except for some miracle.

You should rewatch the NFCCG. He wasn't the reason we lost. Defense giving up over 20 points in the 1st half... might be something to that. Wouldn't have needed Miracle catch if Defense hadn't allowed Saints back in game. Did you even watch the games?

[CharVike]

If I look at our losses (and the tie) there are some obvious trends:

Tie vs. GB: Special Team disaster
Loss vs. LAR: Defense was terrible (Offense was actually very good in this game, Cousins was outstanding)
Loss vs. BUF: 1st half game plan on offense was a complete disaster
Loss vs. NO: 2 uncharacteristic mistakes by Diggs and Thielen cost us this game. Offense and Defense solid otherswise
1st Loss vs. CHI: Mistakes on offense, Offense couldn't get going in 1st half at all, Defense surrendered 13 points early. Joint effort of suck here. Will give JDF pass to some degree on this game, the Bears defense was tough on everyone last year.
Loss vs. NE: BB Owned JDF. Total game planning disaster
Loss vs. SEA: SEA copied NE Template, owned JDF
2nd loss vs. CHI: Not enough gas on offense, Defense eventually wore down

Last season was about early mistakes by each phase of the game in the first four weeks.

Buffalo was almost all on the Oline. We still probably win that without the distraction of Griffen.

Diggs didn't screw up on that pick six versus NOs. He stops there on that route all the time, and the only reason this time resulted in a pick six is because the QB threw a sidearm pass around a defensive lineman to a WR he couldn't see.

Both losses to the Bears were on the offense. Any game the defense gives up fewer than 20 pts, I have a hard time blaming the D. Especially when the D turns the Bears over 3 times.

The losses to NE and SEA the offense couldn't overcome the scheme they played against.

I don't think anyone will dispute the offense is to blame for almost all of our losses. They were by far the weakest part of the team and there were a lot of issues besides the OC.

Yes the O was the worst part. But the D wasn't the same either. Injuries helped screw them up. But our O blew the year before also. It won't be fixed now. Go with what you got and hope for good health and some miracles.

[CharVike]

That seems to be the take around hear. And this Shurmur stuff gets old also. His great O couldn't do a thing in the playoffs. Nothing except for some miracle.

You should rewatch the NFCCG. He wasn't the reason we lost. Defense giving up over 20 points in the 1st half... might be something to that. Wouldn't have needed Miracle catch if Defense hadn't allowed Saints back in game. Did you even watch the games?

In the NFCCG our O took the opening drive right down the field. It looked easy. Then the O gave the 7 back. That had nothing to do with the D. Then the O did nothing. The Eagles told Shurmur no more. You should rewatch it and then post. The Saint game we had them pounded and then the O took their foot off the gas and let them back in it. Once the tide turned we were in trouble and the O couldn't score. Zero in the 3rd Q. That's not IMO it's what happened. Don't tell the board how great Shurmur was in the playoffs. That didn't happen.

[StumpHunter]

So I take the time to make a post about my views of the offensive coaching staff and 4 pages in my idea is now being restated as something akin to "The OC is responsible for everything. He is the ONLY reason we lost in 2018." Seriously? I'm not even going to bother to defend against that because it is so stupid.

At the risk of feeding the trolls: Can anyone make a compelling case that the OC and OL Coach's death didn't have a major impact on the results of the season? I've yet to see that post, just more hyperbole and baseless statements? I guess for some the preferred depth of analysis is "player X sucks, GM Y dumb, Headcoach Z stupid."

You wrote this, did you not?

So why was the offense worse? Why fewer plays? Was the downgrade at both guard positions such a massive disaster that it offset any incremental increase from Cousins vs. Keenum? Given that QB is the single most important position in sports I find this argument completely unpersuasive. If we got better at QB, then getting worse at OG should at worse be a push. So what happened?

Answer: Coaching.

That doesn't leave a whole lot of wiggle room.

To me, the biggest issue was that our GM felt that going into the season with a below average Oline in front of an immobile QB who holds the ball forever was okay, and that getting depth at one of the strongest positions on the team was more of a need in the first round.

No OC was going to have a top 10 offense with that combination. BB couldn't do it, Shurmur couldn't do it, McVay couldn't do it. Would those guys have had more success on offense than JDF? You bet, but it was never going to be as good as 2017.

[VikingLord]

Just to clarify, this post is quite clearly about the offense. Not all of the 8-7-1 season was on the offensive coaching staff, nor did I say it was. However, if you watched all the games then you know that the MAJORITY of our issues were on the offensive side of the ball.

The field goal kicking was pretty inconsistent, especially at the start of the year. Definitely contributed heavily to the result in the game against the Packers in Green Bay.

The defense struggled at times. I think someone mentioned that unit as being primarily responsible for the outcome of the game against the Rams. And that wasn't the only game with major lapses by that unit, either. There were at least 2 others that come to mind (Pats and Seahawks) where I felt defensive lapses contributed heavily to the result.

That being said, I stand by my conclusion that most of the offensive problems were due to bad coaching decisions. And yes, muffed catches, bad QB performance, sacks, etc can be placed on coaching. If the coaches are fielding a poor interior OL (they were) and they start calling tons of medium to deep passes when said OL can't maintain a pocket, then that is on those coaches for not calling a better game plan.

But some of those poor interior OL decisions were foisted on the coaches due to unforeseen injuries. I mean, criticizing the offensive coaches for the outcome of the 2018 season seems a little unfair without at least acknowledging the hand they were dealt.

The main criticism I've seen about the GM contribution to the OL situation was not drafting OL in the 1st round. I've yet to see anyone state another move Spielman/Zimmer could have made past that point last year that would have objectively improved the Vikings situation along the OL as last season went on. And as far as the draft went, it was they could have drafted Hernandez in the 1st.

It seems to me that the OL got hit with a lot of bad luck early last year. Lots of injuries, the death of the OL coach, etc. Snakebit. Hard for me to throw the book at the braintrust for that, and even harder for me to believe there was a "better game plan" they could have called that could compensate for the hand they were dealt, especially when it came to establishing the running game.

Especially considering Cook wasn't even healthy to start the season in addition to the OL issues.

Another example was the NE loss. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew BB was going to take away Diggs and Thielen. JDF couldn't come up with a way to make the game about Rudolph or Dalvin Cook. Then the very next week SEA basically copied the BB template and JDF still didn't have an answer. That is bad coaching.

Are you suggesting that someone else could have come up with a way to defeat the BB/Carroll approach? Both away games against opponents with winning records. Both games where the Vikings were manhandled on defense. Patriots ran it and passed it, while the Seahawks just ran it.

Team stats against Patriots - http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401030959

Team stats against Seahawks - http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401030867

Sure, you can argue the offense played a role there too, but the defense wasn't exactly stellar.

But let's get to the future, because that is what matters now.

Are you happy with the coaching moves made so far? Based on what has happened, how do you think the offense generally, and the OL in particular, is going to change heading into the 2019 season? What other moves do you think need to be made to shore things up?

[WallytheVike]

So I take the time to make a post about my views of the offensive coaching staff and 4 pages in my idea is now being restated as something akin to "The OC is responsible for everything. He is the ONLY reason we lost in 2018." Seriously? I'm not even going to bother to defend against that because it is so stupid.

At the risk of feeding the trolls: Can anyone make a compelling case that the OC and OL Coach's death didn't have a major impact on the results of the season? I've yet to see that post, just more hyperbole and baseless statements? I guess for some the preferred depth of analysis is "player X sucks, GM Y dumb, Headcoach Z stupid."

You wrote this, did you not?

So why was the offense worse? Why fewer plays? Was the downgrade at both guard positions such a massive disaster that it offset any incremental increase from Cousins vs. Keenum? Given that QB is the single most important position in sports I find this argument completely unpersuasive. If we got better at QB, then getting worse at OG should at worse be a push. So what happened?

Answer: Coaching.

That doesn't leave a whole lot of wiggle room.

To me, the biggest issue was that our GM felt that going into the season with a below average Oline in front of an immobile QB who holds the ball forever was okay, and that getting depth at one of the strongest positions on the team was more of a need in the first round.

No OC was going to have a top 10 offense with that combination. BB couldn't do it, Shurmur couldn't do it, McVay couldn't do it. Would those guys have had more success on offense than JDF? You bet, but it was never going to be as good as 2017.

Just to clarify, this post is quite clearly about the offense. Not all of the 8-7-1 season was on the offensive coaching staff, nor did I say it was. However, if you watched all the games then you know that the MAJORITY of our issues were on the offensive side of the ball.

The field goal kicking was pretty inconsistent, especially at the start of the year. Definitely contributed heavily to the result in the game against the Packers in Green Bay.

The defense struggled at times. I think someone mentioned that unit as being primarily responsible for the outcome of the game against the Rams. And that wasn't the only game with major lapses by that unit, either. There were at least 2 others that come to mind (Pats and Seahawks) where I felt defensive lapses contributed heavily to the result.

That being said, I stand by my conclusion that most of the offensive problems were due to bad coaching decisions. And yes, muffed catches, bad QB performance, sacks, etc can be placed on coaching. If the coaches are fielding a poor interior OL (they were) and they start calling tons of medium to deep passes when said OL can't maintain a pocket, then that is on those coaches for not calling a better game plan.

But some of those poor interior OL decisions were foisted on the coaches due to unforeseen injuries. I mean, criticizing the offensive coaches for the outcome of the 2018 season seems a little unfair without at least acknowledging the hand they were dealt.

The main criticism I've seen about the GM contribution to the OL situation was not drafting OL in the 1st round. I've yet to see anyone state another move Spielman/Zimmer could have made past that point last year that would have objectively improved the Vikings situation along the OL as last season went on. And as far as the draft went, it was they could have drafted Hernandez in the 1st.

It seems to me that the OL got hit with a lot of bad luck early last year. Lots of injuries, the death of the OL coach, etc. Snakebit. Hard for me to throw the book at the braintrust for that, and even harder for me to believe there was a "better game plan" they could have called that could compensate for the hand they were dealt, especially when it came to establishing the running game.

Especially considering Cook wasn't even healthy to start the season in addition to the OL issues.

Another example was the NE loss. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew BB was going to take away Diggs and Thielen. JDF couldn't come up with a way to make the game about Rudolph or Dalvin Cook. Then the very next week SEA basically copied the BB template and JDF still didn't have an answer. That is bad coaching.

Are you suggesting that someone else could have come up with a way to defeat the BB/Carroll approach? Both away games against opponents with winning records. Both games where the Vikings were manhandled on defense. Patriots ran it and passed it, while the Seahawks just ran it.

Team stats against Patriots - http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401030959

Team stats against Seahawks - http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401030867

Sure, you can argue the offense played a role there too, but the defense wasn't exactly stellar.

But let's get to the future, because that is what matters now.

Are you happy with the coaching moves made so far? Based on what has happened, how do you think the offense generally, and the OL in particular, is going to change heading into the 2019 season? What other moves do you think need to be made to shore things up?

For me the past 10 days or so of NFL Free Agency has been painful to a point of making my brain hurt and not because the Vikings didn't do what I, captain arm chair GM thought they should do. They've been bad because I have felt like the majority of fans and all of the local sports media have completely misdiagnosed the main culprits of the 2018 season and it's eventual failure to make the post season. ST, Defense, but above all, Offense all played a role. Here is my assessment of the offense:

What changed on the Vikings 2017 – 2018 on offense

Coaching:
Defense – The Same
ST – The Same
Offense – Shurmer out, JDF in. Sparano out in AUG(!!!!) Barone in

Players:
QB: Keenum out / Cousins in
LG: Easton out in training camp / Compton in
RG: Berger retires / Remmers in
RB: Mckinnon out / get Cook back

First QB: There is no possible scenario where Keenum is not a downgrade from Cousins. I’m sorry, but it just isn’t true. There is a reason Keenum was cut by Denver this offseason.
OL: Guards were obviously downgraded due to injury and retirement.
On a purely player basis it looks like we got worse at OG, but better at QB.

Overall stats:

Stats: 2017 Offense: 382 Points / 1055 plays / 356 Ypg Turnover margin +5 Pts Game 23.9
2018 Offense: 360 Points / 1003 play / 345 Ypg Turnover margin 0 pts Game 22.5

So why was the offense worse? Why fewer plays? Was the downgrade at both guard positions such a massive disaster that it offset any incremental increase from Cousins vs. Keenum? Given that QB is the single most important position in sports I find this argument completely unpersuasive. If we got better at QB, then getting worse at OG should at worse be a push. So what happened?

Answer: Coaching.

Quite simply, JDF was a terrible OC for us. Add in the fact that we lost our OL coach to an untimely death literaly days before training camp started and then a few weeks later we lost our best guard to a neck injury and it adds up to chaos on the OL and chaos on offense in general. That is how the season started. We also saw they he was prone to disasterous game planning errors. The first one was Buffalo, that loss was hideous in that it failed to account for their strength on DL. The next one was NE where BB completely owned him. The last one was SEA, which ultimately cost him his job. JDF couldn’t handle the readjustment phase of his NFL stint as an OC. The likes of BB and Fangio owned him.

So now we get to today and Free Agency. Everyone is mad about the OL. I offer a few salient points:

#1: The biggest issue the team faced going into this season was the offensive coaching staff. IT needed to be better. To that end we made a splash and hired Gary Kubiak. I think this hire has been woefully under-appreciated to this point.

1.5: Do not listen to the local sports media. They are concocting this narrative that Zimmer is protecting his defensive guys to the detriment of the team. This is absurd. This line of reasoning is basically: “We should jettison some of our great core defensive guys to pay some FA OL a ton of money with no guarantee he’ll perform.” If you have a top 5 defense (which we do) why would EVER make that kind of move. IMO, this is the height of idiocy, but it is the media so it is just another day at the office.

#2: The teams cap situation all but guaranteed they wouldn’t make any big signings. The fact they haven’t should be considered at worse par for the course. You can be mad about this, but the cap is what it is. It almost feels like fans are getting mad at a one legged man for not being able to walk on two legs. If there is no cap to spend, then why are you mad they didn’t spend cap they didn’t have?

#3: Look at how NE won the SB. They were able to get competitive play out of a bunch of OL that they picked up late in Free Agency and spent an entire season coaching up so they would be competitive in Decmeber/January. This is the blue print the Vikings must follow. Note I say must because their cap situation demands it. We were never going to build a huge OL in free agency in 2019. So to this point, it circles back to #1: The Coaching hires.

So in conclusion: I feel that the 2018 issues were a combination of three things: JDF was a bad hire, the insurance against JDF being weak died a few days before camp started, and we had injuries concentrated at Guard. I will add that drafting Mike Hughes over Hernandez was probably a mistake, but the timing on that is questionable. When we drafted Tony Sparano was still our OL Coach and Nick Easton was still thought to be our LG.

2019 is going to be all about whether or not Stefanski/Kubiak can get back to the level of competency on offense that we saw with Shurmer/Sparano and if Kubiak can help make our OL more competitive through successful coaching. IMO the incremental (if any) improvement of the OL from September to November will be the key thing to watch next season.

You guys know your stuff. I can't disagree with what you're all saying. I think its a combination of some bad coaching dissensions and not taking the right players in the draft over the last couple years. We needed to fix the O-line and didn't do that and then our O-line coach passes away rest his sole. The OC didn't work out whether it was not listening to Zimmer when he said run the ball more or not learning from his mistakes and not game planning correctly. Then you add the injuries to the O-line. I'll add that the offense should take a little blame for the way the D played. The offense doesn't have to score every time they get the ball but controlling the ball gives the D a rest and keeps the opponents offense off the field. Its a combination of things that sunk our season. I will say this. The defense either gave up at the ed or they just didn't care which is maybe the same thing. Zimmer knows this is either win or he'll be out of a job so I have faith he'll get the D to play the way there supposed to and with the addition of Kubiak the offense should be better. Draft some big horses for the O-line and this ream will look a let different. Skol!

[WallytheVike]

You wrote this, did you not?



That doesn't leave a whole lot of wiggle room.

To me, the biggest issue was that our GM felt that going into the season with a below average Oline in front of an immobile QB who holds the ball forever was okay, and that getting depth at one of the strongest positions on the team was more of a need in the first round.

No OC was going to have a top 10 offense with that combination. BB couldn't do it, Shurmur couldn't do it, McVay couldn't do it. Would those guys have had more success on offense than JDF? You bet, but it was never going to be as good as 2017.

The field goal kicking was pretty inconsistent, especially at the start of the year. Definitely contributed heavily to the result in the game against the Packers in Green Bay.

The defense struggled at times. I think someone mentioned that unit as being primarily responsible for the outcome of the game against the Rams. And that wasn't the only game with major lapses by that unit, either. There were at least 2 others that come to mind (Pats and Seahawks) where I felt defensive lapses contributed heavily to the result.



But some of those poor interior OL decisions were foisted on the coaches due to unforeseen injuries. I mean, criticizing the offensive coaches for the outcome of the 2018 season seems a little unfair without at least acknowledging the hand they were dealt.

The main criticism I've seen about the GM contribution to the OL situation was not drafting OL in the 1st round. I've yet to see anyone state another move Spielman/Zimmer could have made past that point last year that would have objectively improved the Vikings situation along the OL as last season went on. And as far as the draft went, it was they could have drafted Hernandez in the 1st.

It seems to me that the OL got hit with a lot of bad luck early last year. Lots of injuries, the death of the OL coach, etc. Snakebit. Hard for me to throw the book at the braintrust for that, and even harder for me to believe there was a "better game plan" they could have called that could compensate for the hand they were dealt, especially when it came to establishing the running game.

Especially considering Cook wasn't even healthy to start the season in addition to the OL issues.



Are you suggesting that someone else could have come up with a way to defeat the BB/Carroll approach? Both away games against opponents with winning records. Both games where the Vikings were manhandled on defense. Patriots ran it and passed it, while the Seahawks just ran it.

Team stats against Patriots - http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401030959

Team stats against Seahawks - http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401030867

Sure, you can argue the offense played a role there too, but the defense wasn't exactly stellar.

But let's get to the future, because that is what matters now.

Are you happy with the coaching moves made so far? Based on what has happened, how do you think the offense generally, and the OL in particular, is going to change heading into the 2019 season? What other moves do you think need to be made to shore things up?

For me the past 10 days or so of NFL Free Agency has been painful to a point of making my brain hurt and not because the Vikings didn't do what I, captain arm chair GM thought they should do. They've been bad because I have felt like the majority of fans and all of the local sports media have completely misdiagnosed the main culprits of the 2018 season and it's eventual failure to make the post season. ST, Defense, but above all, Offense all played a role. Here is my assessment of the offense:

What changed on the Vikings 2017 – 2018 on offense

Coaching:
Defense – The Same
ST – The Same
Offense – Shurmer out, JDF in. Sparano out in AUG(!!!!) Barone in

Players:
QB: Keenum out / Cousins in
LG: Easton out in training camp / Compton in
RG: Berger retires / Remmers in
RB: Mckinnon out / get Cook back

First QB: There is no possible scenario where Keenum is not a downgrade from Cousins. I’m sorry, but it just isn’t true. There is a reason Keenum was cut by Denver this offseason.
OL: Guards were obviously downgraded due to injury and retirement.
On a purely player basis it looks like we got worse at OG, but better at QB.

Overall stats:

Stats: 2017 Offense: 382 Points / 1055 plays / 356 Ypg Turnover margin +5 Pts Game 23.9
2018 Offense: 360 Points / 1003 play / 345 Ypg Turnover margin 0 pts Game 22.5

So why was the offense worse? Why fewer plays? Was the downgrade at both guard positions such a massive disaster that it offset any incremental increase from Cousins vs. Keenum? Given that QB is the single most important position in sports I find this argument completely unpersuasive. If we got better at QB, then getting worse at OG should at worse be a push. So what happened?

Answer: Coaching.

Quite simply, JDF was a terrible OC for us. Add in the fact that we lost our OL coach to an untimely death literaly days before training camp started and then a few weeks later we lost our best guard to a neck injury and it adds up to chaos on the OL and chaos on offense in general. That is how the season started. We also saw they he was prone to disasterous game planning errors. The first one was Buffalo, that loss was hideous in that it failed to account for their strength on DL. The next one was NE where BB completely owned him. The last one was SEA, which ultimately cost him his job. JDF couldn’t handle the readjustment phase of his NFL stint as an OC. The likes of BB and Fangio owned him.

So now we get to today and Free Agency. Everyone is mad about the OL. I offer a few salient points:

#1: The biggest issue the team faced going into this season was the offensive coaching staff. IT needed to be better. To that end we made a splash and hired Gary Kubiak. I think this hire has been woefully under-appreciated to this point.

1.5: Do not listen to the local sports media. They are concocting this narrative that Zimmer is protecting his defensive guys to the detriment of the team. This is absurd. This line of reasoning is basically: “We should jettison some of our great core defensive guys to pay some FA OL a ton of money with no guarantee he’ll perform.” If you have a top 5 defense (which we do) why would EVER make that kind of move. IMO, this is the height of idiocy, but it is the media so it is just another day at the office.

#2: The teams cap situation all but guaranteed they wouldn’t make any big signings. The fact they haven’t should be considered at worse par for the course. You can be mad about this, but the cap is what it is. It almost feels like fans are getting mad at a one legged man for not being able to walk on two legs. If there is no cap to spend, then why are you mad they didn’t spend cap they didn’t have?

#3: Look at how NE won the SB. They were able to get competitive play out of a bunch of OL that they picked up late in Free Agency and spent an entire season coaching up so they would be competitive in Decmeber/January. This is the blue print the Vikings must follow. Note I say must because their cap situation demands it. We were never going to build a huge OL in free agency in 2019. So to this point, it circles back to #1: The Coaching hires.

So in conclusion: I feel that the 2018 issues were a combination of three things: JDF was a bad hire, the insurance against JDF being weak died a few days before camp started, and we had injuries concentrated at Guard. I will add that drafting Mike Hughes over Hernandez was probably a mistake, but the timing on that is questionable. When we drafted Tony Sparano was still our OL Coach and Nick Easton was still thought to be our LG.

2019 is going to be all about whether or not Stefanski/Kubiak can get back to the level of competency on offense that we saw with Shurmer/Sparano and if Kubiak can help make our OL more competitive through successful coaching. IMO the incremental (if any) improvement of the OL from September to November will be the key thing to watch next season.

You guys know your stuff. I can't disagree with what you're all saying. I think its a combination of some bad coaching dissensions and not taking the right players in the draft over the last couple years. We needed to fix the O-line and didn't do that and then our O-line coach passes away rest his sole. The OC didn't work out whether it was not listening to Zimmer when he said run the ball more or not learning from his mistakes and not game planning correctly. Then you add the injuries to the O-line. I'll add that the offense should take a little blame for the way the D played. The offense doesn't have to score every time they get the ball but controlling the ball gives the D a rest and keeps the opponents offense off the field. Its a combination of things that sunk our season. I will say this. The defense either gave up at the ed or they just didn't care which is maybe the same thing. Zimmer knows this is either win or he'll be out of a job so I have faith he'll get the D to play the way there supposed to and with the addition of Kubiak the offense should be better. Draft some big horses for the O-line and this ream will look a let different. Skol!

Hope I'm doing this right. According to the ESPN site Zimmer challenged Rhodes. Zimmer said "We're paying him a lot of money, he needs to play up to that contract," This goes with what I was just saying. It looked like the defense gave up at the end of the season. I was really talking about Rhodes. He needs to grow up and realize he could be one of the best to play the game. He is a shut down corner and probably one of the best CB's we're ever had. He's being paid so now play up to your ability.
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