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Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:10 pm
by losperros
John_Viveiros wrote:We can follow this prediction:
Loss @ STL 27-9
Loss vs. NE 30-13
Loss @ NO 37-22
Win vs. ATL 34-29
Loss @ GB 21-16
Loss vs. DET 27-13
Loss @ BUF 24-17
Loss @ TB 26-17
Loss vs. WAS 35-33
Loss @ CHI 31-23
Loss vs. GB 33-13
Loss vs. CAR 20-13
Win vs. NYJ 23-10
Loss @ DET 24-17
Win @ MIA 20-17
Win vs. CHI 27-21
That's from the ESPN "Advanced Football Analytics" predictions.
<rant>Wow. Barring catastrophic injuries to multiple players, and having none of our opponents suffer the same, I can't imagine a four win season. Detroit is a mess, and we're losing to them at home by two TD's? Buffalo is a mess. Washington is a mess.
We're predicted to score under 10 points against the Rams. Let me have some of that betting action! Actually, we're predicted to be under 20 points in NINE games. That only happened in FOUR games last year, with one having the big *Josh Freeman asterisk attached to it and another being an actual victory over Detroit. And now we have Norv Turner over Musgrave, with basically the same offense, with Cassel substituting for Ponder. They have the Vikes scoring over 30 points twice. They did that FIVE times last season. We scored 391 last season, and yet are predicted to score only 310 points this season. They have us scoring a TD or FG less in each game. What happened in the offseason to make that a likely scenario? By points, the offense goes from 14th best to 25th? Yes. If that happens, the Vikes probably do go 4-12. But I just don't see it.</rant>
This strikes me as a lack of research by whoever put the list together. Okay, no one can know for certain how any team is going to do, but ESPN has a responsibility to know what's new and different about the teams. That includes teams that are improving. The Vikings may not be ready for the SB, but the team has worked hard to be better this year. And ESPN has missed that? Incredible!
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:31 pm
by Raptorman
Over at Sports Illustrated they don't even list he Vikings as a dark horse to win the division. Matter of fact they don't even really talk about the Vikings in there division breakdown. You know what? I don't care. I don't care what they say or predict. Because they have to predict something. I look at it this way. Last year the Vikings offense scored 24.4 ppg. We have the same offensive players, a better OC and stability at QB. So I don't see any reason why they can't do 25ppg. On defense, we have a completely revamped D. Can it be worse than last year? It could. But, I am betting that not only will it be better but that it will be 10 ppg better.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:03 pm
by J. Kapp 11
Raptorman wrote:Over at Sports Illustrated they don't even list he Vikings as a dark horse to win the division. Matter of fact they don't even really talk about the Vikings in there division breakdown. You know what? I don't care. I don't care what they say or predict. Because they have to predict something. I look at it this way. Last year the Vikings offense scored 24.4 ppg. We have the same offensive players, a better OC and stability at QB. So I don't see any reason why they can't do 25ppg. On defense, we have a completely revamped D. Can it be worse than last year? It could. But, I am betting that not only will it be better but that it will be 10 ppg better.
Here's the other thing about the offense in 2013. AP wasn't fully healthy. Kyle Rudolph missed half the season. Cordarelle Patterson was barely used. Christian Ponder and Josh Freeman started 10 of our 16 games. And ESPN thinks our offense is going to be WORSE?
Total, complete, utter idiocy. Do some freaking homework, morons.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:28 pm
by Mridens
I said 9-7. I really liked Leslie Frazier but I think our new coaching staff is just a lot better. I'm a little worried we are peaking too early though. I'd rather start with 3 losses then run the board. I was actually encouraged we had some problems last week, I'd rather we are fixing things and improving as we go than start out on top and other teams figure us out by mid-season.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:44 pm
by VikingsBoss
9-7 fighting for a wild card spot right to the end...with a few breaks, 10-6 and fighting for the division title. I don't think there's better than a 10 win team in this division.
Green Bay's going to be giving up 30 points a game, I swear, they spend a 1st Round pick on defense every year and they keep getting worse, can people please stop stroking Ted Thompson's...ego?
Chicago had the worst run defense in the NFL last year and they didn't do much to strengthen it by signing Jared Allen. Just run to your left folks and he'll run by it every time. Yeah, they'll be difficult to stop offensively, but Jay Cutler always throws in a clunker at the wrong time.
Detroit? I don't see five wins on their schedule. Matt Stafford will throw for 5000 yards again, because he's they'll throw 700 passes again, and he'll be picked off 20 times and everyone will start to wonder when Megatron will finally have had enough and goes Kevin Love on the bit.
I had us going 8-8 two weeks ago, but St. Louis lost Bradford, I like Carolina less and less, and wouldn't be surprised if we manage to eke out a win in Chicago or Green Bay...I just think the Vikings have every reason to believe they'll be playing important games in December.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:45 pm
by Raptorman
John_Viveiros wrote:We can follow this prediction:
Loss @ STL 27-9
Loss vs. NE 30-13
Loss @ NO 37-22
Win vs. ATL 34-29
Loss @ GB 21-16
Loss vs. DET 27-13
Loss @ BUF 24-17
Loss @ TB 26-17
Loss vs. WAS 35-33
Loss @ CHI 31-23
Loss vs. GB 33-13
Loss vs. CAR 20-13
Win vs. NYJ 23-10
Loss @ DET 24-17
Win @ MIA 20-17
Win vs. CHI 27-21
That's from the ESPN "Advanced Football Analytics" predictions.
<rant>Wow. Barring catastrophic injuries to multiple players, and having none of our opponents suffer the same, I can't imagine a four win season. Detroit is a mess, and we're losing to them at home by two TD's? Buffalo is a mess. Washington is a mess.
We're predicted to score under 10 points against the Rams. Let me have some of that betting action! Actually, we're predicted to be under 20 points in NINE games. That only happened in FOUR games last year, with one having the big *Josh Freeman asterisk attached to it and another being an actual victory over Detroit. And now we have Norv Turner over Musgrave, with basically the same offense, with Cassel substituting for Ponder. They have the Vikes scoring over 30 points twice. They did that FIVE times last season. We scored 391 last season, and yet are predicted to score only 310 points this season. They have us scoring a TD or FG less in each game. What happened in the offseason to make that a likely scenario? By points, the offense goes from 14th best to 25th? Yes. If that happens, the Vikes probably do go 4-12. But I just don't see it.</rant>
According to those numbers, the Vikings offense is only going to score an average 19.4 ppg. Ok. Actually is 5 points ppg less then last year. With the same players. Healthy. And a stable QB situation. This is why I don't take any of these seriously. I also see that according to them the Packers are going 12-4. Now the Packers D is going to take huge strides and take 7 ppg off of what they let people score last year. Didn't know Peppers was that good.
Well, I guess it's better to be flying under the radar at the beginning of the year. No matter what happens, they can only go up.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:11 pm
by losperros
Raptorman wrote:Well, I guess it's better to be flying under the radar at the beginning of the year. No matter what happens, they can only go up.
Quite right. Several in the sports media have said the Vikings might surprise some teams. Well, sounds good to me.
I'd rather teams and even the media underestimate the Vikings, especially for that tough beginning stretch in the schedule.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:40 am
by Mothman
I have no love for ESPN and I haven't read the article (apparently, it's in ESPN the Magazine) but I do feel compelled to mention that
Advanced Football Analytics is a site that, as the name implies, does statistical analysis of NFL games, makes predictions based on data analysis, etc. It's run by a guy named Brian Burke. This 4 win prediction doesn't appear to come from ESPN analysts or even a someone who works for ESPN but from AFA. It's like if ESPN the Magazine published Pro Football Focus' predictions for the season, and, if
this is the same piece that appeared in the magazine, it's interesting to note that ESPN also included a "secret superstar" pick from PFF's Sam Monson (it's Fusco).
In other words, most of the anger for the win prediction should probably be directed at AFA.
For what it's worth, in the piece accompanying the prediction, Ben Goessling, the writer who covers the Vikes for ESPN, says that he disagrees with it:
GOESSLING'S PREDICTION
Even though they are a team in transition, I think the Vikings will win more than the four games predicted by Advanced Football Analytics. They have a tough early schedule that will test their defense, but it wouldn't shock me to see Zimmer -- who has fared well against Brady and Rodgers in the past -- draw up a defensive plan with enough unscouted looks to steal a game from one of those two teams. With a defense that should improve as the year goes on and more stability on offense, I think the Vikings are capable of a 7-9 season that would have to be viewed as a step in the right direction.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:54 am
by mansquatch
I think Gosseling is on the money. We are going to score some points this year. We will also have the advantage of the most dangerous KR in the league and the starting field position that goes with it.
The Defense is a giant question mark, but barring injury I will be very surprised if it is worse than what was put on the field last year. That alone should equal 2-3 more wins on the margin, given how many games we blew in the 4Q last season.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:17 am
by Mothman
More low expectations from the national media:
Pat Kirwan of cbssportsline predicts 5 wins for the Vikings.
From the same website,
Pete Prisco picks a score for every game (which is seems a bit excessive) and has has the Vikings going 4-12.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:41 am
by VikeMike
With an historically bad defense and instability at QB, the Vikings were four or five 2-minute drills away from a 9-7, 10-6 or 11-5 record last year. As bad as it was, I didn't see the team quit. The first five games in 2014 are brutal, but if they go 2-3 in those games - and I think they have a shot at that - they will contend for a playoff spot. If they can go 3-2, they will contend for the division title.
Maybe I'm drinking the optimistic kool aid again at the star of the season (and I have been known to do that before), but I think the defense will improve and the number of the numerous bad bounces the ball took for us last year can't be as high this year. So, with purple shades firmly placed on my face, I voted for 9-7. I say I won't fall for it every year, but I think we got a chance.
In any event, I think we take a step forward. Some other pieces have to come together before we are a true contender, but I think we are headed out of the malaise.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:31 am
by Funkytown
Mothman wrote:More low expectations from the national media:
Pat Kirwan of cbssportsline predicts 5 wins for the Vikings.
From the same website,
Pete Prisco picks a score for every game (which is seems a bit excessive) and has has the Vikings going 4-12.
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:44 am
by jackal
Let them hate on the Vikings; we win spoil it; for a lot of teams ,and win twice that many games...
there voices will be silenced
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 10:37 am
by mondry
As I always say, need to see how the team plays in preseason and how our talent looks to be developing and I like we're we are at and where this is going, optimism through the roof so my prediction has to match, 11-5 boyz!
Re: How many Vikings wins this year.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 10:53 am
by Raptorman
Mothman wrote:More low expectations from the national media:
Pat Kirwan of cbssportsline predicts 5 wins for the Vikings.
From the same website,
Pete Prisco picks a score for every game (which is seems a bit excessive) and has has the Vikings going 4-12.
Here's the problem with all the talking heads. They all concentrate on the offense. The QB and how well is Peterson doing. I have yet to hear one of them have a frank discussion about the close losses the Vikings had last year and how, if the defense becomes even middle of the road, they will be a significant change in the Win/Loss column. So I take what all these so called experts are saying with a grain of salt. They know less than most of us about our team.
Prisco has the Vikings offense going backwards on scoring, yet every year for the past 4 years the Vikings offense has scored more points per game than the year before. Now with the same talent and better OC they are supposed to take a major step backwards. Sorry, I just don't see it.