Vikings to trade up

[HardcoreVikesFan]

He drafted Christian Ponder 12th overall. Do you really think he listens to draft experts and pays attention to mocks?

Well, to be fair, most 'experts' were pushing the quarterback position on Minnesota in the 2011 draft. So maybe Spielman DID listen to them and just chose the wrong QB?

[VikingLord]

I'm going to base the following on the draft value trade chart at http://www.walterfootball.com/draftchart.php. Might not be totally accurate, but it does form some basis for what Spielman actually has to work with should the trade rumor prove true.

Current, the Vikes have the following picks in the 2013 NFL draft:

1st Round: #23 (760 points), #25 (720 points)
2nd Round: #52 (380 points)
3rd Round: #83 (175 points)
4th Round: #102 (92 points), #120 (54 points)
5th Round: #155 (29.4 points)
6th Round: #189 (15.8 points)
7th Round: #213 (6.2 points), #214 (5.8 points), #229 (~1 point)

Now of the picks above, which ones would Spielman be likely to parlay to move up? Obviously, one of the 2 1st rounders would be in play, and I'd say the higher of the 2 4th rounders would be in play. So, if the higher of the 2 1st rounders plus the higher of the 2 4th rounders was offered, the highest the Vikes could move up in the 1st rounder would be 760+92 = 852, or to about pick #20, which is owned by Chicago. If Spielman were only willing to offer the 2nd of the two 1st rounders, the move up would be even less impressive (720+92=812, or roughly #21).

Let's say Spielman is considering his 3rd rounder, though. How high can he move if he puts that on the table in addition to his 2nd 1st rounder? Well, 720+175=895, which gets him up to around pick #18. If he throws in the higher of his 1sts he can probably jump up to #17.

Let's try another scenario and see where that lands Spielman. Let's say he puts both 4th's on the table in addition to his lower 1st. Where does that get him? Well, 720+92+54=866. Throw in the higher of the 1st's instead and the total increases by 40 to just over 900, so the net effect of that still puts the Vikings into the #17-18 range just based on the chart.

This analysis shows a few things:

- The Vikes do have some ammo to move up, but nowhere near #11 without giving up one of their 1sts and their 2nd. I doubt Spielman would do that, although I suppose anything is possible.
- The most likely range for them to move up based on what they have to work with is the #17-20 range. In looking at the teams choosing in that range (those being #17: Pittsburgh, #18: Dallas, #19: Giants, #20: Bears, #21: Bengals, #22: Rams), I think any of those teams could in theory be viable trade partners, but of them I think the location Spielman would have to target is #17-#19 to jump in front of the Bears. Or maybe he wants to get up in front of Dallas for one of the guard prospects. He could in theory do either without giving up the farm and get a guy he covets.
- I'm not sold that his target is a WR if he trades up. In fact, I don't think that is likely at all. If he really wants Austin, he's going to have to be looking at a trade into the #10 range to snag him as I think Austin comes off fairly early. He could be looking at Patterson in a trade scenario, but the way things are looking he can probably just hold where he is and still have a good chance of landing Patterson. Given where the Vikes sit, there are really only 2 positions that I could see justify a possible trade up the more I look at it (those being MLB - Ogletree and Guard - Cooper or Warmack). Even though the Vikes have what could be considered dire needs at other positions, those positions are deep enough that I don't think Spielman could really have ranked any players at those positions being worth the cost of trading up into the #17-20 range.

As it stands, if the rumor is true I would put my money on a trade up targeting Olgetree. I think Spielman would be wise to just hold his fire and take BPA at #23 and #25, or even consider trading down to snag some more picks, but if the trade up rumors are true and it happens I think it would be for Ogletree.

[PurpleKoolaid]

true but tavon Austin and greg Jennings plus Adrian Peterson on offense. WOW !

Not even near as good as PH, Austin and AD....Austin is over-rated, we just got rid od someone with twice his talent. We need a 'real' wideout now.

[Mothman]

I totally agree, I was just saying it would not benefit us if it did happen. But I honestly think two Wr's will be drafted in the first round; Tavon Austin to STL and DeAndre Hopkins to someone, hopefully the Vikings. Once the info about his flight taking off prior to the room trashing and the surveillance tapes from the hotel show it wasn't him, He will be a first round pick. Allen is going to fall out of the first, He now has Character concerns, and supposedly did crappy in the team interviews at the Combine.

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2013/4/17/ ... k-dropping

I have to say, I find this 11th hour talk from an anonymous scout about Allen's supposed character concerns very dubious, especially on the heels of Schefter's report about Allen supposedly being re-tested for drugs (which, if I'm not mistaken, turned out to be wrong). This stuff reeks of a team putting information out there in an effort get a player to fall to them. There was no previous talk about character concerns with Allen and as far as I can tell, no previous concerns about drug use. This is much more likely to be the truth:

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/201 ... -schefter/

I trust very little late-breaking news about draft prospects. The gamesmanship is in full swing at this point.

[Purple Rage]

I do not see the Vikes moving up or down. They will hopefully get Teo and a really good wide receiver with their first two picks.

agree 110%! I would be very happy with Teo and K Allen with the first 2 picks! Now on the other hand I would also be ok with 2 defense picks, say Trufant and Teo. If we go that route I'd like for us to get 2 wr out of the pack of Hunter, Patton, Woods, T Williams (seems people forgot about the Baylor kid), D Rodgers, Swope, Ace Sanders......exc. I think the DT position is deep, we can find a solid player anywhere in the draft. We have more cards to play with here, either way we go I think Speilman an friends will have a very solid draft.

[jackal]

pick 229 - 1 point Laughs

[Purple Rage]

might be a blessing in disguise because I still think he is a top player in this draft not just at wr. He looked pretty damn good in his pro day, as far as eye test. Teams are still taking into consideration hes not 100%. We have ammunition to move up in the 2nd, if we have to, an still grab him. I have a feeling though the Vikes might not have the patience and draft the next best wr if these rumors are true. Deandre Hopkins would be next on deck, id be ok going in that direction too.

[Mothman]

I have to disagree, I don't see how you can totally rule out the possibility of Allen slipping.

I didn't rule it out. I'm not scoffing at the idea that he could slip, I'm saying that reports of a failed drug test and character concerns that all emerge approximately one week before the draft should be viewed with suspicion.

I highly believe though that teams are going to stay away from Allen in the first because he still is not close to being healthy.

Not close? Where is that even being reported?

According to his doctor (the well-known James Andrews) his knee is healthy. It's 100% healed and he's just working on getting the surrounding muscle tissue up to 100%, which shouldn't be a problem in terms of training camp, the season, etc. As for his ankle... a re-check doesn't mean it's still a problem. His agent says his knee and ankle both got positive medical reports and I'm unable to find any indications online that either injury is still serious cause for concern.

As I said, he could slip out of R1 and frankly, that wouldn't surprise me but I doubt he'll fall all the way to late R2. If he does, that could benefit the Vikings.

[dead_poet]

Good stuff here from Spielman (not that he's giving anything away necessarily.

Hartman: Vikings GM Spielman finds draft pool deep

“I think it’s a very, very deep draft,” Spielman said. “I don’t know that there’s a significant difference between maybe the fifth or sixth guy that’s going to come off that board and the guy where we’re going to be picking at 23 and 25.

“You’re going to get significant players in the second and third [rounds], and we also have two fourth-round picks as well. We have 11 [picks overall]: two number ones, a two, a three, two number fours, a five, a six, and, if I’m not mistaken, three sevens.”

Spielman said he is very excited about the defensive players available. And the Vikings are going to need defensive linemen with Kevin Williams signed for only the upcoming season and Jared Allen and Brian Robison able to become free agents after this year.

The GM also believes that getting a quality receiver could happen even after the first round.

“In the receiver position, I think there’s going to be some very good receivers that you’re going to be able to potentially take in the second- and third-round area and there’s going to be a couple in that third day [rounds 4-7], as well,” he said. “That’s why I said I think it’s a strong defensive draft but there are some good offensive players, as well.”

Spielman said he has already gotten calls for trades, which is normal when you have two first-round draft choices.

“Its’ a little premature to start thinking about [trades]. I think you have to go through your draft meetings; you have to see what potential players are going to be available where you’re picking,” Spielman said. “If there’s a player that’s very significant that we feel we have to go up and get in the first round, we have enough ammunition to do that. There’s also the possibility that we can take one of those first-round picks and trade back and pick up some more draft picks, we may do that as well. With the amount of draft picks we have, with the depth of this draft, I think it’s going to be a very interesting draft. A lot of teams are going to try to fill needs because there’s so much depth at each position.”

With 11 draft choices, watch for Spielman and company to deal like they did last year to fill a position like the middle linebacker spot.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... ml?refer=y

[Mothman]

Good stuff here from Spielman (not that he's giving anything away necessarily.

Hartman: Vikings GM Spielman finds draft pool deep
http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... ml?refer=y

Thanks for the link and the quotes.

I can't wait for the draft to get here. I'm tired guessing, analyzing, etc. and I want to know who the Vikes will select! I just wish the first 3 rounds were the one day marathon they used to be instead of being spread out over 2 nights.

[Funkytown]

Good stuff here from Spielman (not that he's giving anything away necessarily.

Exactly. I don't know any more now than I just did a minute ago. He just said a whole lot of NOTHING.

[Raptorman]

I would be a bit upset if they took both first rounder's and traded up to get a player. I don't see any player as being that much better in this draft. Using two firsts to move up, and then that player becomes a bust? Would hate to see it. Of course I could be wrong. The needs of the teams in front dictate that good players will be available when the Vikings pick at 23 and 25. We shall see what draft day brings.

[mondry]

I'm hoping we don't have a block buster move up, but I'm totally fine if we spend some of our later round picks to move up the 5-6 spots to strategically hop ahead of someone.

[hibbingviking]

the only players worth moving up to get are tavon Austin, dion Jordan, and shariff Floyd imo.

[John_Viveiros]

...but tavon Austin and greg Jennings plus Adrian Peterson on offense. WOW !

Let me edit that for you:
...but tavon Austin and greg Jennings plus Adrian Peterson plus christian Ponder on offense. Umm, wow?