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I would also like to point out that another MLB who is widely believed to be a late first round pick, Kevin Minter, also ran a 4.81 forty yard dash.

Oh ya and an OLB by the name of Jarvis Jones, widely believed to be a top 5 - top 10 prospect, who is around the same size as Te'o and appears to be one of the most explosive players on tape.... just ran in the 4.9s at his pro day.

Couple more Tebows I guess...

VikingLord wrote:I meant to say I haven't seen any evaluator say that Ogletree must be moved outside in the pros. This is similar to the offensive lineman who played left tackle in college but projects to a right tackle in the pros, for example. I've stated I see him as a MLB in the pros and I stick by that, but he could move outside. Heck, he could in theory move back to safety if a defensive coordinator were so inclined.

Ah, I see. That makes more sense!

VikingLord wrote:So if paying too much attention to combine results is a sucker's game, what would you call paying too little to them?

I don't know. I suppose I'd say it's somewhere between understandable and irresponsible, depending on the circumstances (understandable if a player is coming off an injury or something). I think film study and in-person scouting are WAY more important, as are interviews, and I also believe the combine results that tend to get the most attention (40 times, weightlifting numbers and jumps) are less important than the drills players run at the combine. In the end, while information can be gleaned from a workout, it's still just a workout. Game performance is far more important and a better indication of what to expect from a player.

BTW, just to be clear, I meant paying too much attention to combine results is a sucker's game for teams. I hope that didn't come across any other way.

Teo performed well in college, that's true. I think he'll be a serviceable pro. But he's not worth a 1st round pick based on his measureables.

Perhaps not but his measurables shouldn't be the determining factor and who knows? He may post a different set of measurables at his pro day.

You can turn it over any way you want, but as I stated to another poster, I think Teo is the MLB version of Tebow. I see lots of the same types of reasoning being given as to why Teo merits a 1st round grade.

I think they're worlds apart. Tebow's skill set was a major question mark coming out of college and it remains so today. That's not the case with Te'o. He projects as a good pro MLB. Whether he should have a first round grade or not is debatable and I imagine opinions will vary on that among teams, just like they have among fans and draft prognosticators.

saint33 wrote: The thing that separates the two is instincts and knowledge and that is very evident on tape. In these two facets of the game, Te'o is light years ahead of Brinkley. That's where I laugh at the comparison, because Te'o is a far more gifted football player. And I bolded those two words for a reason. Not athlete, but football player. Brinkley was a late round prospect, Te'o is a top 3 prospect at his position, how you can not grasp the difference is beyond me. Put aside the numbers and simply watch the two players, and it's night and day. Te'o understanding of the game, the way he commands the position, and he overall feel for the game is what makes him so good.

Instincts and knowledge that is "very evident" on tape? Doesn't the fact that someone disagrees with you in regards to that indicate it's not that evident? I *have* watched the two and I don't see that much of a difference in the way they move. They strike me as similar from a physical perspective. Now maybe Teo brings more "leadership", "knowledge", or "intangibles", but those alone could not possibly vault an otherwise physically-similar prospect up from the 5th to the 1st round of any draft (or at least they shouldn't).

I see in another post you accused me of not "liking" Teo. I want to be clear - I don't dislike him at all. I just don't like the thought of the Vikes using a 1st to get him. I don't even like the thought of them using a 2nd to get him. A 3rd I could stomach, but that's the highest I'd say he should go. The Tebow comparison is justified based on the hype around both players compared to their underwhelming physical performances at the Combine. Those performances did not justify 1st round grades for either player, yet both appear to have benefited greatly from their "non-measurables" and college performances. We saw where those attributes got Tebow in the pros, and while Teo may do better as a pro than Tebow, I think there is a real danger in projecting a player's potential in the pros when he has clear physical shortcomings. One could argue that the closest thing to a pro offense in terms of size and speed that Teo faced in college was that of the Crimson Tide, and that's one of the reasons that performance is being out-weighted relatively-speaking. The players in the NFL are generally the biggest, fastest, and most skilled. Those facts will place even greater demands on Teo's physical limitations. Can his "non-measureables" compensate for that to the degree necessary for him to continue out-performing as a pro? I'm not convinced of that, and thus I would drop him down into the middle rounds of the draft before I'd consider him.

I am not saying Teo can't thrive in the NFL, or even that I don't want the Vikes to draft him. He may very well turn into a dominant MLB, and I've even gone on record in other posts saying I think he will turn out to be a good or very good NFL player. So I'm not predicting he will fail by any means, and if it's come off that way I apologize. I just don't think he merits a high draft grade.

Mothman wrote: I think they're worlds apart. Tebow's skill set was a major question mark coming out of college and it remains so today. That's not the case with Te'o. He projects as a good pro MLB. Whether he should have a first round grade or not is debatable and I imagine opinions will vary on that among teams, just like they have among fans and draft prognosticators.

IIRC, the main ding on Tebow was his long windup, which is something that can be corrected by coaching and hard work. It's harder to improve one's overall speed at this point in their career, though, which is my main knock on Teo.

Just for the record, I am not predicting failure. More or less, I'm acknowledging what hype can do to an individual's draft stock. Teo may very well turn into an excellent pro, and will probably do no worse than become a serviceable pro. For me, the 1st round is for swinging for the fences, which is why guys with rare skillsets should be targeted there if at all possible.

VikingLord wrote:I want to be clear - I don't dislike him at all. I just don't like the thought of the Vikes using a 1st to get him. I don't even like the thought of them using a 2nd to get him. A 3rd I could stomach, but that's the highest I'd say he should go.

That's an interesting perspective. I'm not saying you're wrong but you're in the distinct minority as I haven't read a single evaluation, scouting report or expert saying he should be any lower than the second round and you're saying third at the earliest? Heck, Mayock has him as his #2 overall ILB. I think you're seeing something very few people are seeing.

The Tebow comparison is justified based on the hype around both players compared to their underwhelming physical performances at the Combine. Those performances did not justify 1st round grades for either player, yet both appear to have benefited greatly from their "non-measurables" and college performances.

They also benefit from game tape and outcomes.

We saw where those attributes got Tebow in the pros, and while Teo may do better as a pro than Tebow, I think there is a real danger in projecting a player's potential in the pros when he has clear physical shortcomings.

Obviously you need to have some athletic ability, but being a great athlete doesn't always guarantee NFL results (Gholston, Williamson, and countless others). I'm also not sure how "short" his shortcomings are. I suppose it depends on what your expectations are. As I posted elsewhere, James Laurinaitis ran a 4.82 40 and he just signed a six-year, $42 million contract as one of the top MLB in the league.

I think there is a real danger in projecting a player's potential in the pros when he has clear physical shortcomings. One could argue that the closest thing to a pro offense in terms of size and speed that Teo faced in college was that of the Crimson Tide, and that's one of the reasons that performance is being out-weighted relatively-speaking. The players in the NFL are generally the biggest, fastest, and most skilled. Those facts will place even greater demands on Teo's physical limitations. Can his "non-measureables" compensate for that to the degree necessary for him to continue out-performing as a pro?

Look at it from the perspective of his career, not just one game one season. It's really hard to argue with his production and there's always going to be a disparity in the level of collegiate competition. That's not to say he didn't rise to the occasion in other games. Heck, even HOF NFL quarterbacks (or any position player) probably had sub-par games in college, and likely against the toughest of competition.

I am not saying Teo can't thrive in the NFL, or even that I don't want the Vikes to draft him. He may very well turn into a dominant MLB, and I've even gone on record in other posts saying I think he will turn out to be a good or very good NFL player. So I'm not predicting he will fail by any means, and if it's come off that way I apologize. I just don't think he merits a high draft grade.

It's just an interesting perspective when he's commonly seen as a 1-2 round pick by scouts/"experts" and you have a significantly lower grade than conventional wisdom suggests. Will your perspective change if his 40 improves at his pro day?

VikingLord wrote:I am not saying Teo can't thrive in the NFL, or even that I don't want the Vikes to draft him. He may very well turn into a dominant MLB, and I've even gone on record in other posts saying I think he will turn out to be a good or very good NFL player. So I'm not predicting he will fail by any means, and if it's come off that way I apologize. I just don't think he merits a high draft grade.

Just out of curiosity, have you seen any more of Te'o than highlights and/or the Alabama game? I ask because having watched him quite a bit, I think his instincts and knowledge definitely come through on the tape and there's no way he projects as a third rounder.

I have to turn around the question you asked saint33 and ask: doesn't the fact that Te'o is widely projected as a first round pick (or at least a second round pick) make you question your assessment that the highest he should go is in R3? As dead_poet wrote above, that evaluation places you in a distinct minority.

I understand the comparison you're attempting to make with Tebow but it's really an "apples and oranges" comparison. Tebow is a convenient example to illustrate that college production doesn't always translate to the pros but other than being heavily-hyped college players, there's very little similarity between Tebow and Te'o. Tebow had far more "dings" than a long windup. There were serious concerns about his accuracy, his inexperience in pro style offenses, his ability to read defenses, his footwork...

VikingLord wrote:, the main ding on Tebow was his long windup, which is something that can be corrected by coaching and hard work. It's harder to improve one's overall speed at this point in their career, though, which is my main knock on Teo.

... and that's based on his 40 time at the combine, correct? He's doesn't play slow.

You might find this interesting:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/fo ... 3299.story

“I did OK,” Teo said in an NFL Network interview from the combine. “I can obviously do a lot better. That's what pro days are for.”

That opportunity is almost here but a veteran NFL scout that spoke to the Tribune on the condition of anonymity pointed out measured time is just a small part of the evaluation process.

“I think it’s important for his draft stock,” the scout said. “But it doesn’t matter to me. His positional drills will show you more if he can be a three-down player. I think he can be a three-down mike (middle linebacker) but not on the outside. It’s close. You’d like a mike that runs better but you could get away with him.

“Playing fast and running fast are two different things. Guys get enamored so much with speed. Tell me, does it show up on tape when you watch the kid? I don’t think you watched the kid and said, ‘He’s slow.’ I don’t think what he runs Tuesday will change what most teams saw on tape.”

The scout projects Te’o as a potential late first-round draft pick and said if a team selects him in the second round, it will feel good about the value. Maybe Te’o can enhance his stock just a little by running faster.

dead_poet wrote: It's just an interesting perspective when he's commonly seen as a 1-2 round pick by scouts/"experts" and you have a significantly lower grade than conventional wisdom suggests. Will your perspective change if his 40 improves at his pro day?

I know I'm definitely in the minority and based on that I'm likely wrong. I'm fine with that, but my opinion won't change at this point.

Someone is going to take Teo and I hope he does well as a pro. Heck, I'd love to be wrong because maybe Teo will turn into one of the all-time greats and those guys are fun to watch. I just can't shake my assessment of him in regards to where I think he should be drafted at this point.

Mothman wrote: I have to turn around the question you asked saint33 and ask: doesn't the fact that Te'o is widely projected as a first round pick (or at least a second round pick) make you question your assessment that the highest he should go is in R3? As dead_poet wrote above, that evaluation places you in a distinct minority.

Not really. Lots of guys are "consensus" high draft picks and flop in the pros.

Mothman wrote: ... and that's based on his 40 time at the combine, correct? He's doesn't play slow.

Maybe not, but I have watched Teo play and from what I see he's great playing in that 15-20 yard box, but not so much outside it. I think the quality of the defensive front 4 and scheme will be critical to Teo's success as a pro. Will Teo thrive nn a Tampa 2 defense like the one Frazier seems to favor where the MLB has to turn and run sometimes 40 yards down the seam with an athletic TE?

Mothman wrote: You might find this interesting:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/fo ... 3299.story
The scout projects Te’o as a potential late first-round draft pick and said if a team selects him in the second round, it will feel good about the value. Maybe Te’o can enhance his stock just a little by running faster.

Maybe, but this evaluation isn't all that different from my take on Teo. This scout just seems to think the limitations aren't significant, while I see them as more significant. I mean, look at what the guy says - "You'd like a mike that runs better, but you could get away with him." That's how a 1st round prospect is described? The praise sounds tepid to me. Plus, what credentials does this scout possess in terms of evaluating linebackers? We assume the scout has experience with it and a track record to prove he can evaluate that position, but for all I know this is some guy who has marginal experience/success in that area.

None of this changes my perspective, and at this point if the Vikes do go for a MLB at either of their 1st rounders I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Arthur Brown.

VikingLord wrote:Not really. Lots of guys are "consensus" high draft picks and flop in the pros.

So you're confident in your assessment that Te'o is a 3rd round talent at best even though you're virtually alone in that assessment? You may end up being right but you have to admit, you're taking a pretty unusual position. If it seems like some of us are pushing back a little hard on this subject, I think that's why. I can understand not giving Te'o a first round grade but you've gone much further than that.

Maybe not, but I have watched Teo play and from what I see he's great playing in that 15-20 yard box, but not so much outside it. I think the quality of the defensive front 4 and scheme will be critical to Teo's success as a pro. Will Teo thrive nn a Tampa 2 defense like the one Frazier seems to favor where the MLB has to turn and run sometimes 40 yards down the seam with an athletic TE?

The MLB in the Vikes "Tampa 2" has some deep drops but the Vikings, rarely, if ever, ask their MLB to cover a TE 40 yards downfield without help so I don't think that should be a major concern in determining who plays the position for them. If a route goes that deep, it's going into a safety's zone and the MLB should be responsible for covering the underside of the route while the safety would need to get over the top and prevent a completion.The ability to read, react and make the right call, the ability to take on blockers and fill against the run and the ability to handle zone coverage duties in the 15-20 yard range are much, much more important in the Vikings scheme than an MLB's coverage abilities so far down the field.

Maybe, but this evaluation isn't all that different from my take on Teo. This scout just seems to think the limitations aren't significant, while I see them as more significant. I mean, look at what the guy says - "You'd like a mike that runs better, but you could get away with him." That's how a 1st round prospect is described? The praise sounds tepid to me.

It is a bit tepid but there's no shortage of enthusiastic praise for what Te'o can do either.

Is the following how you want to see 1st round MLB prospect described? "Rarely uses hands to fight with blockers despite an aggressive mentality. Overruns a lot of plays between the tackles, struggles to recover. Has a lot of issues dealing with second level blocks from the offensive line, rarely can work over top of them, there winds up walled off. Run and chase player at this point, loses gap integrity with false or wasted steps."

That's how the draft profile at NFL.com describes Ogletree and cbssportsline's profile says the following: " ... make no mistake about it, the missed tackles are an issue, which if not corrected, give Ogletree some Aaron Curry-like bust potential as well."

They also describe him as an exciting prospect but the point is all of these guys have shortcomings. There's no perfect prospect and at this time of year, it's rare to see praise that isn't also accompanied by some talk of weaknesses.

Plus, what credentials does this scout possess in terms of evaluating linebackers? We assume the scout has experience with it and a track record to prove he can evaluate that position, but for all I know this is some guy who has marginal experience/success in that area.

That's a fair point although, as a paid NFL scout, I think it's safe to assume he has more experience as a talent evaluator than we do.

None of this changes my perspective, and at this point if the Vikes do go for a MLB at either of their 1st rounders I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Arthur Brown.

He's definitely a good prospect but there's also this:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1619684

Stands out on tape for his size, physicality and open-field tackling, but hasn't proven to be much of a playmaker over his career, posting "just" three interceptions and not a single forced fumble over his collegiate career. Struggles while at Miami open up concerns about how well he'll handle the jump to an NFL team further from home.

They all have "warts".

Mothman wrote: Is the following how you want to see 1st round MLB prospect described? "Rarely uses hands to fight with blockers despite an aggressive mentality. Overruns a lot of plays between the tackles, struggles to recover. Has a lot of issues dealing with second level blocks from the offensive line, rarely can work over top of them, there winds up walled off. Run and chase player at this point, loses gap integrity with false or wasted steps."

That's how the draft profile at NFL.com describes Ogletree and cbssportsline's profile says the following: " ... make no mistake about it, the missed tackles are an issue, which if not corrected, give Ogletree some Aaron Curry-like bust potential as well."

Fair enough, but I never said Ogletree was a can't-miss and, as far as I recall, have always stated the guy is a risky pick for a variety of reasons, some on-field, some off-field. I do think he has 1st-round potential, though, as many of the things listed as weaknesses can be overcome with hard work and good coaching.

Mothman wrote: He's definitely a good prospect but there's also this:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1619684 They all have "warts".

Also a fair point. Brown intrigues me more for the fact that he reminds me a lot of Ed McDaniel and he was one of my favorite Vikings of all time (believe that or not). I just loved how he played the game despite the fact that many felt he was undersized as well. So maybe that experience is coloring my perception of Brown. Likewise, when I watch Teo move I'm reminded of Jasper Brinkley. I don't think Brinkley was terrible, so don't get me wrong at all. I think he is a solid linebacker, but that's what I see.

VikingLord wrote:Also a fair point. Brown intrigues me more for the fact that he reminds me a lot of Ed McDaniel and he was one of my favorite Vikings of all time (believe that or not).

I believe it. I was a big McDaniel fan too! He was an underrated player.

I just loved how he played the game despite the fact that many felt he was undersized as well. So maybe that experience is coloring my perception of Brown. Likewise, when I watch Teo move I'm reminded of Jasper Brinkley. I don't think Brinkley was terrible, so don't get me wrong at all. I think he is a solid linebacker, but that's what I see.

I think he's more instinctive and more of a playmaker than Brinkley but even though I disagree with the comparison, I understand what you're saying. Te'o's doesn't play slow but he doesn't stand out as a speedy LB either.

saint33 wrote:3. Kevin Minter - Similar to Te'o, better in run support than pass coverage. A downhill LB, solid in his reads and his instincts. Solid tackler, is good and shedding blocks and getting to the ball carrier. Really, there's a lot of similarities between Te'o and Minter's games. The thing that separates them to me though is that Te'o has more of a knack for game changing plays, and his on field leadership and presence is felt more than Minter. I have no problems with drafting Minter, he'll end up being a solid starting LB in the NFL. But I'd prefer them to trade down and grab him if they target him, and I'd be disappointed if we picked him over Te'o or Brown.

Just wondering but what games did you see where you felt Minter lacked on-field leadership? I've seen this guy play a lot of football and not once did he seem to be anything but a strong leader, especially given the ferocity of his efforts. He's also played as a 3 down MLB against SEC offenses and faced some of the best firepower in the nation.

Admittedly, I haven't seen much of Te'o at all, so maybe he is all that. But no way can Minter's leadership or even his presence on the field be questioned.

None of the MLBs are perfect, so I think the Vikings are going to do a lot of homework on this and I have no idea which player they'll pick. As a result, if they pick Te'o, I won't doubt their decision. And if they pick Minter, even if it's over Te'o or Brown, I'm not going to doubt their reasons for that either. Personally, I think these guys are closely matched, with one guy's weakness being another guy's strength, and vice versa.

This has been a great thread to read thus far. Thanks so much for sharing opinions and analysis.

What I can take away from it for now is that there are several ,5-6, guys who have the potential to fill this position for us. A large part of the decision will be determined by who is left by the time we pick. The guy in charge of scouting was a solid MLB for years....

Another thing I found interesting was the snippet about the time for first 20yds of the 40 time being the most important for certain positions, like DL/MLB. It's the difference between top speed and being quick. A good thing to remember IMO.

Personally, after reading all the different takes, I find myself attracted to the lower profile prospects and hope we wind up with one of them. Brown and Minter are intriguing.

All in all, the draft is becoming one of my favorite events of the season.

losperros wrote: Just wondering but what games did you see where you felt Minter lacked on-field leadership? I've seen this guy play a lot of football and not once did he seem to be anything but a strong leader, especially given the ferocity of his efforts. He's also played as a 3 down MLB against SEC offenses and faced some of the best firepower in the nation.

Admittedly, I haven't seen much of Te'o at all, so maybe he is all that. But no way can Minter's leadership or even his presence on the field be questioned.

None of the MLBs are perfect, so I think the Vikings are going to do a lot of homework on this and I have no idea which player they'll pick. As a result, if they pick Te'o, I won't doubt their decision. And if they pick Minter, even if it's over Te'o or Brown, I'm not going to doubt their reasons for that either. Personally, I think these guys are closely matched, with one guy's weakness being another guy's strength, and vice versa.

I think you're misreading my point. I'm not suggesting Minter lacks leadership. He's a solid on field leader, but he doesn't have rare leadership qualities that Te'o has. Te'o appears to lift the player's around him. As I said, Te'o and Minter are so closely comparable. I wouldn't be devastated if they took Minter over Te'o. I just feel like neither is incredibly gifted physically but both are sound instinctual players, so the only thing that separates them really for me is that fact that Te'o has more "special" qualities.

Can't believe someone was comparing Brinkley and Te'o!

The guy in this draft that reminds me the most of Brinkley is Jonathan Stewart. Brinkley is really prototypical, size-wise and athletically. Stewart is that guy among this year's crop, though I think Stewart is probably better at reading offenses.

The problems with Jasper are kind of obvious. Athletically he's all there, but when you watch the guy, he just doesn't seem very good at reading offenses because he always seemed like he was desperately trying to get in good position. Te'o is a far more polished linebacker. Even after a couple of years, Brink still wasn't too consistent...despite his tackle numbers. Te'o is probably the most NFL starter-ready of this bunch of linebackers. He may not have the most upside, but he's probably the guy out of this group I could see starting right away pretty easily.

That said, Brink might be better served in a 3-4 where he could maybe rely more on his athleticism.

Te'o isn't really the best fit for the Vikings, that would probably be Ogletree. Ogletree is perfect in a Tampa-2, a guy who knows how to play football, can read offenses, can backpedal, can tackle. The guy is basically a young Urlacher. I think Minter is a guy who can read offenses well enough and make good enough decisions that with some coaching, could be a pretty great linebacker as well. Te'o is a really good football player and I think is a pretty good fit for the Vikings defense as well. Ogletree probably has the ability to chase down guys who break away and I don't think Te'o is fast enough to do that...that's probably the only advantage drafting Ogletree has over Te'o.

If you want a reliable guy with few off-field problems, though, I'd suggest Kevin Minter or Arthur Brown. Only problem with Minter is that Alan Williams would have to figure out a way to give him help in coverage. He's a guy who'll stuff the run but maybe get burned against quick passes over the middle. Brown is pretty much a complete package type of guy, but he relies a little more on instincts than quickness. This is just from what I've managed to gather from all over, and figuring how it would fit into Williams's defense. Arif's post on this subject over at DailyNorseman is pretty solid, though I get the feeling he's trying to sell a few of those guys that are kind of surprises.