My thoughts on the offense as a whole

[fiestavike]

I still think folks are too down on Teddy. It isn't fair to analyze him and not look at the negative plays. Teddy makes very few negatives plays and that is huge in the NFL. Look at what happened to Detroit yesterday. That fumble on their end of the field was just dreadful. It let GB back in a game that it really had no business winning. Matt Ryan did it to his team against us a week ago. Teddy isn't doing that to the Vikings much at all.

I think this is a valid point, and the fact the he is avoiding negative plays under the circumstances he is playing with makes it all the more impressive.

He does need to be more decisive and more accurate deep (I think those two things are correlated in his case), but with little time and little space he has ample opportunities to make disastrous blunders under extreme pressure. Instead he is usually composed enough to find a way to limit the damage.

Actually, I think there is an analogy with how Peterson was playing early in the season. He wasn't in top form even on his big, explosive plays, and he was consistently jump stopping behind the line for negative carries, knocking the team off schedule. It was really a terrible performance. After a few weeks of this horrible play, he started taking the 0 the 1 the 2 yard gain on those plays and its been very helpful. Those are big plays, even though they don't seem like it.

Right now Teddy is facing what Adrian was facing early. the play is blocked for -2, but Peterson gets 2, or the play is blocked for a sack fumble, or a loss of 10, and teddy gets 0. I'm good with that. In fact I'm great with that! I just want the line to block the play for 10, and let Teddy get 20 a bit more often.

I haven't lost faith in what I've seen from Teddy at all.

[mondry]

Thanks, Mondry, especially for clarifying your thoughts regarding Peterson and Bridgewater.

I appreciate the QBR info too, although it's not a stat on which I place a great deal of weight because of the degree of subjectivity involved.

It would be interesting to see how much difference there has been in Bridgewater's effectiveness in the shotgun this year vs. his snaps under center (again this year).

Since it's come up, I'm also wondering how much yardage Asiata and McKinnon gained last year running out of the shotgun vs. on plays where the QB was under center. Does anybody know where to find that info?

That post looked like a monumental undertaking. You had a lot of comments to reply to...

Teddy's almost identical in both, 85.6 out of the gun, 85.0 under center this year. I'm not even going to try and figure out what any of that really means. On one hand you can say he's regressed out of the gun and improved from under center but it's probably not that simple either since things have changed so dramatically when you get a guy like Peterson back, change #1 WR's, and lose Sullivan / Loadholt.

I'm not sure about the Asiata / Mckinnion data, maybe someone else can find it! LOL. I'm kind of spent! Even if Mckinnion and Asiata aren't as good as AD on a YPC basis the dynamic changes so much just because they don't garner the same kind of respect Peterson does so I'm guessing they would run better from the gun just by default.

I think this is a valid point, and the fact the he is avoiding negative plays under the circumstances he is playing with makes it all the more impressive.

He does need to be more decisive and more accurate deep (I think those two things are correlated in his case), but with little time and little space he has ample opportunities to make disastrous blunders under extreme pressure. Instead he is usually composed enough to find a way to limit the damage.

Actually, I think there is an analogy with how Peterson was playing early in the season. He wasn't in top form even on his big, explosive plays, and he was consistently jump stopping behind the line for negative carries, knocking the team off schedule. It was really a terrible performance. After a few weeks of this horrible play, he started taking the 0 the 1 the 2 yard gain on those plays and its been very helpful. Those are big plays, even though they don't seem like it.

Right now Teddy is facing what Adrian was facing early. the play is blocked for -2, but Peterson gets 2, or the play is blocked for a sack fumble, or a loss of 10, and teddy gets 0. I'm good with that. In fact I'm great with that! I just want the line to block the play for 10, and let Teddy get 20 a bit more often.

I haven't lost faith in what I've seen from Teddy at all.

Yeah, the reality is the more we pass the more we risk bad stuff happening and the REWARD to offset that bad stuff just hasn't really been there. If this were another team, they'd be 3-8 instead of 8-3 and the perfect example of that is the chargers who just happen to be 3-8. Their offensive line is in shambles as well and sure they can pass the ball better than us but they can't run the ball even remotely close to us to take pressure off their passing game and their defense isn't close to ours either. If the Chargers had Peterson and a better defense I'd put money on them not passing as much but you get the idea. It's a losing strategy to have rivers chuck it 55 times a game but they can't really do anything else to stay in games.

[Mothman]

Teddy's almost identical in both, 85.6 out of the gun, 85.0 under center this year. I'm not even going to try and figure out what any of that really means. On one hand you can say he's regressed out of the gun and improved from under center but it's probably not that simple either since things have changed so dramatically when you get a guy like Peterson back, change #1 WR's, and lose Sullivan / Loadholt.

I'm not sure what it means either but the close result is what I expected since, to my eyes, he hasn't seemed noticeably better out of the shotgun than under center this season. Thanks for digging that up!

I'm not sure about the Asiata / Mckinnion data, maybe someone else can find it! LOL. I'm kind of spent! Even if Mckinnion and Asiata aren't as good as AD on a YPC basis the dynamic changes so much just because they don't garner the same kind of respect Peterson does so I'm guessing they would run better from the gun just by default.

Probably... I'm actually more curious now just to learn how much they actually ran from the gun last year and in which formations they were most productive.

[Mothman]

I still think folks are too down on Teddy. It isn't fair to analyze him and not look at the negative plays. Teddy makes very few negatives plays and that is huge in the NFL. Look at what happened to Detroit yesterday. That fumble on their end of the field was just dreadful. It let GB back in a game that it really had no business winning. Matt Ryan did it to his team against us a week ago. Teddy isn't doing that to the Vikings much at all.

I agree that the passing game is putrid right now in terms of production, there is no escaping that. However, in the final analysis we also have to ask if the QB is hurting his team and right now Teddy isn't giving us the kind of horrid QB plays that can lose games. That has value in the NFL even if it isn't exciting.

We all want a high flying offense, but we shouldn't under value a QB who plays a clean game. Our defense let's us play that way.

That actually segways into another question/issue I have on this topic: Given that the coaching staff knows it is had a strong defense, a QB that is not going to commit the big error, and AP, doesn't that in many ways add up to what we are seeing out of the squad? In this situation do you really want to take risk on offense? I think overall the bias is probably towards no.

I also think part of it is how the coaches percieve the relative risk. If you are NE, you know Brady is good for very few INT and thus are content to let him do his thing. Conversely we've seen Teddy put up the ball when he absolutely needs to. We've also seen him lay eggs when he has needed to pass a bunch. (GB/SF games) So is it inability or inconsistency?

Sorry the ramble, I just see a few open ended items on this topic that are worth discussion and are related to it. If I have reached any conclusions on this whole topic it is these:

1.) The passing game in it's current state is not good enough
2.) There are a lot of reasons why, but we are really to what level each issue is impacting the squad.
3.) Regardless of the above two issues we are 8-3.

I hope people are taking everything into account when analyzing Bridgewater. That's what I'm trying to do.

Regarding negative plays: he's turned it over 8 times in 11 games. That's not bad but given how little has been asked of him, I wouldn't say he really plays all that clean (for example, Matt Ryan wasn't the only QB who threw an interception in the end zone in last week's Vikes/Falcons game. If I remember correctly, that's the second time this year Teddy's done that).

Bridgewater does a nice job of avoiding sloppy turnovers under pressure but his laudable caution and ball security in those situations has seeped into the rest of his game. Poise is an asset for a QB but poise without production (especially point production) isn't worth much, in my opinion. Bridgewater is coming up way too short in that area.

An NFL team can't "hide" their QB indefinitely. Eventually, it catches up with them, even if they have a strong running game and defense. When I watch Bridgewater, more often than not, I see a QB playing not to lose on a team trying to ask him to do just enough so they can get a win. I think our standard, and that of the team, has to be higher than that.

[chicagopurple]

Norv DOES run West Coast patterns and those are the ONLY passes that TB has been reliable with. That is the problem. TB has NO vertical passing game and the whole league knows it. Its not because we dont have WRs that can stretch the field, we do have that. We do NOT have an OL that can pass protect more then 2 seconds and our QB is unable to scramble AND read his receivers well enough to get down field. NONE of this is APs fault.....Most of you know I am no longer a fan of AP "the man", but I am not silly enough to think that HE is handcuffing TB. Farve didnt mind having AP on the field, did he? When Asiata is on the field TB and our OL is still incapable of a vertical game.
I even wonder if a bit of our kickers problems are not due to the OL? Is there any real stats to see how much pressure he is getting this year on kicks?
When the year is over, I will not got frustrated if we keep all our WRs, our QB, our RBs......I WILL get cranky if we dont see a near complete turn over at OL and our OL and QB coaching staff.......

[PurpleMustReign]

Don't forget guys, Taylor Heineke looked so good in rhe preseason that the Vikings kept him rather than risk losing him to another team. I say stick with Teddy, but develop Heineke. If Teddy figures things out, someone may give a pick or more for Heineke.

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[PurpleMustReign]

Jim, Teddy has three endzone INTs... One each against SD, StL, and Atl.

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[Mothman]

Jim, Teddy has three endzone INTs... One each against SD, StL, and Atl.

Thanks for the info. I forgot about the pick against STL.

[losperros]

An NFL team can't "hide" their QB indefinitely. Eventually, it catches up with them, even if they have a strong running game and defense. When I watch Bridgewater, more often than not, I see a QB playing not to lose on a team trying to ask him to do just enough so they can get a win. I think our standard, and that of the team, has to be higher than that.

Very well said. I'm surprised that the play-not-to-lose philosophy hasn't died by now. It's not a winner's mantra.

[PurpleMustReign]

Very well said. I'm surprised that the play-not-to-lose philosophy hasn't died by now. It's not a winner's mantra.

I don't think Zimmer is ok with that thinking... I just don't think he has much of a choice now. He iwll not let the OL go unaddressed this offseason.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Don't forget guys, Taylor Heineke looked so good in rhe preseason that the Vikings kept him rather than risk losing him to another team. I say stick with Teddy, but develop Heineke. If Teddy figures things out, someone may give a pick or more for Heineke.

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This is one of the things i have been wondering since day 1. Is he really doing well? Or is he just doing the practiced the coaches ask and then head back to his apartment. But, no matter what, I want the vikes to have a decent backup qb they can form and shaoe into an nfl srater, And NO, I dont think teddy need replacing now, or in the near future, But just ask the cowgirls what happens when you backup qb for weeks in Cassel. And like you said, if Teddy looks and stays healthy, we have an aqueduct backup qb for a while, and Heineke is playing lights out, there might be out extra rd rd pick.

[DK Sweets]

So drunk...

[PurpleMustReign]

So drunk...

Or typing on his phone.

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[CbusVikesFan]

The most glaring stat for the offense is the amount of TD's thrown by Teddy, which is paltry by NFL standards. Drew Brees almost matched Teddy in one game, and if you throw that stat in with the sack rate stat it leaves you to wonder things that may or may not be relevant. I am not sure what the scouts and the FO saw in TB to start with to make them think that he is a quality top-notch QB. I just don't see the upside being as high as they do. Idk, I have seen as much as I need to know that by the time that TB development comes around and if it does at all, the player cycle may have passed. Meaning some players may leave because the team is digressing or flat lining.
The offensive line mostly is unacceptable. Who is to blame? The players themselves? They are only as good as their abilities let them be. Coaching? Other QB's have to move around, compensate for the O-line struggling with assignments missed, etc. It is instinct mostly and knowing when to take off, knowing and trusting that you can throw open your guy, fitting into tight windows with accuracy and the right touch.
I am not sure what to think of Wallace and the rest of the WR's. I thought before the season started that this could be a strong point of the offense but so far it has been far from successful. Is that their fault? Norv's? Teddy's?
I believe that AP would even be closer to 2000 if we had a more vertical threat on the field and went to it more often. I rarely get ticked with a QB throwing deep and there is an INT. As long it was a decent throw and it is not in a critical situation. Like throwing into triple coverage on 3rd and 3 and your TE is doing jumping jacks 10 yards down the field without a defender within 10 yards of him kind of thing.
So, what to do with this anemic passing attack? Start over? Idk, I would do a lot of work in the offseason to change what is going on. The first thing I would do is make a trade with Cincinnati for AJ McCarron. I was blown away how sharp he looked in preseason and how he could make all the throws with accuracy, touch, and at the speed that he could run the offense. In the draft I would go line heavy and draft another QB somewhere early day two. Wallace would probably be gone and if I could pull off some kind of trade with him, even better.
Of course these are my opinions and take them for what you will. That McCarron thing has been on my mind all season and have held back with it mainly because I didn't want to hear how stupid and moronic it sounds but if I was the GM, I would have drafted McCarron over TB 99 out of 100 times. I believe that he was more NFL ready than TB and why develop when you can hit the ground throwing?

[Reignman]

Admittedly I haven't had time to read this entire thread, but I wanted to respond to the OP with my own observations. So maybe some of this has been covered already.

Offensive line

By now it's no secret that our offensive line is horrible. TB is pressured on 47.8% of his drop backs which is worst in the league. Russell Wilson is pressured on 44% which is second worst for comparisons sake. The blame goes on the offensive line though when you look at how Teddy's sack rates compare to other QB's. Teddy is only sacked on 16.5% of drop backs while Wilson is sacked 20.7% of the time. Drew Brees is pressured on 28.6% of drop backs which is far less than Teddy but he has a sack rate of 19.8%. BRUTAL!

I'm curious to know what they mean by "pressure". Does that include blitzes? I haven't looked for the numbers myself, but if we're the most blitzed team in the league, then the pressure stats would make more sense. Opposing defenses know our line is banged up and we have a young QB, so it would only make sense to blitz us more often.

I've gone back and watched a lot of film via NFL Game Pass to try to figure out what's wrong too. I've timed every pass play from snap to throw, or pressure for the past 3 games. I stop the clock as soon as Teddy takes off to scramble, he's flushed from the pocket, the moment he's in the grasp, or when the pass leaves his hand. I'm not really looking for how much time he has to throw because he's pretty good at avoiding pressure and buying time outside of the pocket. What I'm looking for is how much time the line gives him to throw, and it's actually not that bad. I do the same for our opposing QB's for comparison. Teddy has time to throw.

I also note how many pass rushers there are on every play and what I've noticed is, opposing teams are blitzing us more than we blitz them. Sure the line could always be better and Clemmings is getting beat like a rented mule, but it's doing pretty well considering how patched up it is. In our last 3 games, Teddy has had an average of 2.54 seconds to throw while our opponents have had 2.49. If you just want to count sacks and plays where he's flushed out and scrambles. Then he has an average of 3.06 to our opponents 2.70. From snap to throw, Teddy is at 2.45 and our opponents 2.47.

What you'll notice is Mike Wallace IS getting open but Teddy isn't able to connect on the deep balls that make Wallace $$$.

You're right about that. And we've all seen how many times Teddy has missed him deep. Nothing against Wallace, but it makes no sense to pay him what we pay him just to stretch the field and be a decoy. Coincidentally when Johnson saw more action (2nd half of last year), that's about the only time Teddy showed signs of progress. The word chemistry comes to mind. Sometimes it's important.

Teddy is the 2nd most accurate QB this year due to an insanely high completion % and a lot of his incomplete passes are throw away's to avoid pressure / sacks. Teddy was also #1 in this stat last year.

Not sure what you mean here. He's 10th in completion % this year and he was 11th last year. It doesn't seem that bad until you realize he throws a lot of short passes. So why aren't we taking many shots downfield? It's probably a combination of us leading/winning more often, but it's also a combination of Teddy not being very accurate downfield, and being asked to be the dreaded "game manager". Again from the past 3 games and my own analysis, Teddy has thrown the ball more than 10 yards downfield only 14 times. He's 6/14 with a TD and an INT. Conversely, he's thrown 22 passes behind the LOS. Our opponents have taken 49 shots downfield over 10 yards, where they're a combined 23/49 (Carr, Rodgers, Ryan). And they've only thrown 16 behind the LOS.

Last year Teddy had a 97.3 QB rating out of the shotgun while this year he has a 85 QB rating under center. Why does this matter? Well Peterson is a much better runner out of formations that put the QB under center

His rating out of the shotgun is only slightly better than his rating under center this year 85.9 to 82.2 according to ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/ ... ridgewater

Essentially at the bye the coaches decided to become a power running team with only about 1/3rd of our snaps coming out of the shotgun now. That sucks for Teddy since he prefers the shotgun but clearly the coaches decided to try and cover up this poor run blocking and Adrian's ineffectiveness out of the gun by maximizing what Peterson can do under center.

But when we do throw, we throw out of the shotgun 72% of the time. He has an average time of 2.41 seconds out of the gun as opposed to 2.91 from under center, which tells me he's probably making quicker decisions out of the gun. He got sacked on 7 of 76 gun plays (9.2%) and on 3 of 29 center plays (10.3).

This tells me that when they NEED Teddy to pass, he's quite capable but they keep him limited to avoid exposing our over matched offensive line.

That's not what we're seeing though. You just need to look at the Packers game to see how productive our offense is when we become 1 dimensional and NEED to rely on Teddy. The 49ers game is another example. We're just lucky we haven't trailed a whole lot this year.

Norv Turner

One of our biggest problems this year and going forward is that Teddy is essentially miscast in this offense. He wasn't very good under center in college and his deep ball accuracy was a noted problem during the draft process and yet that's what norv is asking him to do. I'd be really curious to know why they liked Teddy enough to pick him over Carr who looks like the better fit for Norv's system.

Bingo!!! I keep asking myself that too. It makes no sense when you really think about. It makes about as much sense as running a WCO with a back like Peterson. So what were they thinking? It's even more baffling when you consider the rumors that we tried to trade up to get Manziel. Another bad fit for Norvs system.

Adrian Peterson

What can I say? He's beasting again and it was probably wise for Norv to dedicate the offense to him. But for this post I want to focus on the negative that comes with AD. PFF has him rated as the #16 overall RB and it's because his scores in pass blocking and receiving are so low. Don't get me wrong I love AD but man does he make it hard to have a good passing attack. He is so ineffective running out of the shotgun that anytime we use it we now have a tell that we're going to pass.

Other than explaining why the WCO is all wrong for Peterson lol, what are we going to do when Peterson is gone? We're not going to have him forever, so Teddy is going to have to learn how to be an NFL QB eventually. We're not going to compete for the division or the 1 seed year in and year out with a game manager.