If healthy, who should start from here on out?

[Just Me]

You should all be aware

that my 1 vote for Ponder significantly skewed the results.

Nice job on the Bears yesterday, BTW

[PurpleMustReign]

You should all be aware

that my 1 vote for Ponder significantly skewed the results.

Lol!

[maembe]

You are a tough audience. I think you have to say that a QB rating for a game better than any QB in history has had for a season should be considered an elite performance. Yes, it's just a one game rating, but the numbers speak for themselves.

The numbers don't speak for themselves at all actually. QB rating is an awful stat. Cassel threw a deep ball straight to the defender in stride and CP made a great play and knocked it out of his hands. 95% of the time that's an interception. 90% of the time that fumble is a turnover, which easily could have resulted in a loss for us. Quarterback rating also doesn't look at running. And things like the Jennings TD really inflated his stats. His performance was very similar to Ponder's last two in that he was bad for one half and good for one half. He was not very accurate at all, especially in the beginning. QBR is a much better stat. His was 52, about equal to Ponder's last year.

The thing that Cassel did that Ponder hasn't been doing is winning before the play even starts. The were at least four or five times where he had already made up his mind about what to do before the snap and made a quick throw for a successful play.

[Just Me]

The numbers don't speak for themselves at all actually. QB rating is an awful stat. Cassel threw a deep ball straight to the defender in stride and CP made a great play and knocked it out of his hands. 95% of the time that's an interception. 90% of the time that fumble is a turnover, which easily could have resulted in a loss for us. Quarterback rating also doesn't look at running. And things like the Jennings TD really inflated his stats. His performance was very similar to Ponder's last two in that he was bad for one half and good for one half. He was not very accurate at all, especially in the beginning. QBR is a much better stat. His was 52, about equal to Ponder's last year.

The thing that Cassel did that Ponder hasn't been doing is winning before the play even starts. The were at least four or five times where he had already made up his mind about what to do before the snap and made a quick throw for a successful play.

One of the few advantages of any statistic is that it is objective. Meaning: It is equally applied to all regardless of our personal biases. Whenever we try to 'massage' the stats (e.g. "95% of the time that's an interception. 90% of the time that fumble is a turnover, which easily could have resulted in a loss for us") then they lose their value IMHO. I'm not saying those observations are inaccurate, necessarily, but I am saying they are subjective observations. The pass interception (that was broken up by Patterson). There is no data to indicate that is intercepted "95% of the time." The inescapable fact is that it wasn't intercepted.

But I agree with you that the passer rating does not necessarily paint an accurate picture of performance. So let's do a subjective exercise:

In your opinion who does the following 'better' (Cassel or Ponder)?

1) Performs pre-snap reads and calls audibles when necessary?
2) Disguises which receiver is the intended receiver until the last possible minute?
3) Maintains pocket awareness?
4) Scrambles/Runs?
5) Is more decisive with decisions
6) Converts on third downs?
7) Ball Security (includes INTs and Fumbles by QB)?
8 ) Exhibits leadership and takes control of the team?
9) Makes Critical Throws Under Pressure?
10) Stronger Arm?

My own score is 10% Ponder and 90% Cassel. I think the better argument (if there is one to be made) is that this is one performace by Cassel. Maybe he really is that much better than Ponder, but I remember a pre-season game where he also looked worse than Ponder, so I'm not sold on Cassel being 'the guy'. What I am sold on is: he is better than Ponder at this point. I don't know how anyone could conclude otherwise...

[mondry]

One of the few advantages of any statistic is that it is objective. Meaning: It is equally applied to all regardless of our personal biases. Whenever we try to 'massage' the stats (e.g. "95% of the time that's an interception. 90% of the time that fumble is a turnover, which easily could have resulted in a loss for us") then they lose their value IMHO. I'm not saying those observations are inaccurate, necessarily, but I am saying they are subjective observations. The pass interception (that was broken up by Patterson). There is no data to indicate that is intercepted "95% of the time." The inescapable fact is that it wasn't intercepted.

But I agree with you that the passer rating does not necessarily paint an accurate picture of performance. So let's do a subjective exercise:

In your opinion who does the following 'better' (Cassel or Ponder)?

1) Performs pre-snap reads and calls audibles when necessary?
2) Disguises which receiver is the intended receiver until the last possible minute?
3) Maintains pocket awareness?
4) Scrambles/Runs?
5) Is more decisive with decisions
6) Converts on third downs?
7) Ball Security (includes INTs and Fumbles by QB)?
8 ) Exhibits leadership and takes control of the team?
9) Makes Critical Throws Under Pressure?
10) Stronger Arm?

My own score is 10% Ponder and 90% Cassel. I think the better argument (if there is one to be made) is that this is one performace by Cassel. Maybe he really is that much better than Ponder, but I remember a pre-season game where he also looked worse than Ponder, so I'm not sold on Cassel being 'the guy'. What I am sold on is: he is better than Ponder at this point. I don't know how anyone could conclude otherwise...

haha well said, I just had to laugh that a live ball bouncing all over the place is 90% of the time going to the other team... Not to mention Ponder's had about 4 woulda coulda shoulda pick's that he got a lucky break on as well. That would put him at 9 picks, tied with Eli for most in the league with only 3 games played LOL.

Only votes for Ponder so far are his friends / family, NFCN rival fans, and the blind.

[dead_poet]

In your opinion who does the following 'better' (Cassel or Ponder)?

1) Performs pre-snap reads and calls audibles when necessary? Don't know. I don't know how we'd know one way or the other to be able make an informed decision.

2) Disguises which receiver is the intended receiver until the last possible minute? Disguises how? By not staring him down? I didn't notice any blatant "stare-downs" by Cassel, so if that's what you mean, then given the small sample size: Cassel.

3) Maintains pocket awareness? Too small of a sample size. The offensive line played better on Sunday, nearly as well as the second half vs. the Bears. In the Bears game (second half) Ponder had a clean pocket and didn't look to scramble much and looked very poised, same as Cassel in this one. I suppose I'd lean Cassel, because Ponder's pocket awareness has been suspect to this point in his career and I haven't studied Cassel enough to make me believe he'd be worse in this area.

4) Scrambles/Runs? Ponder is a better Scrambler/runner

5) Is more decisive with decisions: Ponder. That's the problem. It seems as though he, at times, makes a decision and executes (consequences be damned) before deciding if it's the right one.

6) Converts on third downs? Ponder? The Vikings were 4/11 (36%) on third down on Sunday. In the first three games combined, they were 17/43 (40%) -- 2/10 (20%): game 1; 7/16 (43%): game 2; 8/17 (47%): game 3 -- Here is Cassel's performance (not including running backs) on third down in Sunday's contest:

Incomplete, TD, Incomplete, Incomplete, Sack/fumble, Complete 2 yards short of 1st down, Complete 2 yards short of 1st down.

So he only was able to convert on 1/7 (14%) opportunities. I quickly dug up Ponder's stats on third down from the first three games, using the same "Opportunities/Conversions" template. He was 13/35 (37%), including one passing and one rushing TD. So if we go off of this, Ponder is better on third downs.

7) Ball Security (includes INTs and Fumbles by QB)? This isn't really all that fair. Cassel has only played one game. He "lost" a fumble, but otherwise didn't turn the ball over, which is obviously great. But remember, Ponder went, what, four straight games last season without a turnover? I think he went eight total without a turnover in 2012. But if we're talking just 2013 alone, Cassel turned the ball over the least per game.

8 ) Exhibits leadership and takes control of the team? I think they both do, and we really don't know. However judging by the way the players performed and their post-game comments, it stands to reason Cassel has a bit more command in the huddle.

9) Makes Critical Throws Under Pressure? How about completes critical throws under pressure? Ponder has shown in his career he's capable of doing it. I didn't see anything on Sunday that led me to believe that Cassel is necessarily significantly better in this regard. Perhaps that second TD to Jennings? This one's hard. If push came to shove, I suppose I'd lean Cassel, probably for the only reason that I've soured on Ponder .

10) Stronger Arm? Probably a push.

My own score is 10% Ponder and 90% Cassel. I think the better argument (if there is one to be made) is that this is one performace by Cassel. Maybe he really is that much better than Ponder, but I remember a pre-season game where he also looked worse than Ponder, so I'm not sold on Cassel being 'the guy'. What I am sold on is: he is better than Ponder at this point. I don't know how anyone could conclude otherwise...

My preference is still neither following the season. But due to the fact the Vikings got their first win of the season, I'm still leaning Cassel. But I don't like either option.

EDIT: I think "Accuracy" should be added to the list. That seems to separate the two in my eyes (so far). That and ball release time. Cassel seemed to get the ball out of his hands much quicker than Ponder.

[Just Me]

EDIT: I think "Accuracy" should be added to the list. That seems to separate the two in my eyes (so far). That and ball release time. Cassel seemed to get the ball out of his hands much quicker than Ponder.

Good Post. My own personal bias "slipped in" a bit as it seemed like Cassel did better on third down conversions. Your stats clearly indicated he did not. I had only given the nod to Ponder in the running category (something he clearly does head-and-shoulders above Cassel) so I would have to revise my score. I agree the "sample size" is small and acknowledged as much in my post, but since I also indicated that my conclusion was Cassel was better than Ponder at this point and we only have the "sample size" we have, I think you have to go with your observations at this point.

Cassel was not 'staring down receivers' (which you correctly identified as my intent) I was just trying to word it in more neutral terms.

I agree that accuracy was an oversight and should be included. I would consider that a "push" between the two (sometimes Cassel was noticeably more accurate and sometimes he was just as bad. Sp maybe he is better than Ponder, but I'm not sure by how much. If we are considering only deep throws, he blows Ponder away...) - FWIW...

The funny part is that I consider 'realease time' as part of being 'decisive' so I would have scored this the opposite of the way you assessed it. You can make the case for two separate categories, I just lumped them both as part of 'being decisive.'

[soflavike]

Cassel may not be an all-pro, or even close to one... but at least he looked like a competent NFL QB when he was put under pressure. His throws had a lot more zip than Ponder's, he was more willing to go vertical than Ponder, and ultimately more effective as a whole. The Vikings moved the ball better than in any of the first 3 games.

So, of course, let's put Ponder back in.

[soflavike]

Cassel's stats are as inflated as Aaron Rodgers. (Jennings, Driver, Finley, and crew made an art form out of turning a 10 yard pass into a 50 yard TD)

Putting the ball where the receiver can easily catch it in stride has a lot to do with YAC. When you throw it behind a guy, or way up high, the YAC suffers. When you put some zip on passes and hit the receiver in the hands, good things happen.

[Captain]

All I can say is...Thank God I'm not in Leslie Frazier's chair these next two weeks.

[J. Kapp 11]

Seriously DP? Arm strength is a push?

Matt Cassel has one of the stronger arms in the league. Arm strength is not what has held him back, and it's arguably what got him drafted in the first place given that he didn't even start in college. The second TD to Jennings is a prime example. In 2+ seasons, I have never seen Christian Ponder make a sharp throw like that, with plenty of velocity and only where Jennings could catch it. In fact, I'd venture to say Ponder wouldn't even have attempted the throw.

There's also the issue of deep-ball accuracy. There is simply no comparison. Cassel is far superior. I'm not just talking bombs here. I'm talking pushing the ball 25 yards over the middle, or firing bullets on the 7-route. Ponder simply can't do it.

Finally, most of Cassel's inaccurate throws were early in the game. Funny how we'll make all kinds of excuses for Ponder, but we won't give Matt Cassel a half to get his feet under him with a new team.

The eye test is conclusive. Matt Cassel is the superior QB, and it's not close. YMMV.


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[dead_poet]

Seriously DP? Arm strength is a push?

Honestly, I didn't see much that separated the two (as far as arm strength is concerned). Now, when I watched Ponder and then MBT, it was pretty evident. MBT has a very strong arm.

Matt Cassel has one of the stronger arms in the league. Arm strength is not what has held him back, and it's arguably what got him drafted in the first place given that he didn't even start in college. The second TD to Jennings is a prime example. In 2+ seasons, I have never seen Christian Ponder make a sharp throw like that, with plenty of velocity and only where Jennings could catch it. In fact, I'd venture to say Ponder wouldn't even have attempted the throw.

I'd agree with the last part. Also, as I mentioned before, he has a much quicker release. There's a noticeable lack of hesitation on his part when comparing to Ponder.

There's also the issue of deep-ball accuracy. There is simply no comparison. Cassel is far superior. I'm not just talking bombs here. I'm talking pushing the ball 25 yards over the middle, or firing bullets on the 7-route. Ponder simply can't do it.

I need a larger sample size to see, but I'm inclined to agree.

Finally, most of Cassel's inaccurate throws were early in the game. Funny how we'll make all kinds of excuses for Ponder, but we won't give Matt Cassel a half to get his feet under him with a new team.

I'm not sure anyone's not giving him time to get his feet under him? He was pretty darn efficient late in the game. I think he completed that last nine of his passes.

The eye test is conclusive. Matt Cassel is the superior QB, and it's not close. YMMV.

He sure looked that way on Sunday. Of course, "Ponder apologists" could look to the offensive line's ability to pass protect and the Steelers' old, slow defense and conclude that Ponder would've played just as well. Of course, those people are idiots. Hopefully whoever lines up under center after the bye can perform and rattle off a nice winning streak. For the record, I hope it's Cassel; I think he gives the team the best chance to win.

[Mothman]

It's only one game (Also let's not forget that it was the Steelers, who are atrocious.

Exactly!

I think Cassel's performance should earn him a start against the Panthers but keep in mind it was against a winless team with a defense that has 4 sacks on the year (tied for last in the NFL) and has yet to force a single turnover.

[NextQuestion]

They would have had a turnover if Ponder was in there. Ponder's performances in 3 weeks warrant a benching. At least Schiano, who is an idiot head coach, benched his lack luster QB

[mondry]

The opposing defense doesn't really matter that much when it comes to Ponder. The stills have shown he's not even seeing wide open targets or if he is, most of the time he's not willing to even throw it (the one with Carlson wide open in the seam comes to mind) and he's inaccurate to the point where he can miss a receiver all on his own anyway. Then he'll feel the phantom pressure and abandon the pocket on his own because he's too skittish and his footwork / mechanics will go down the drain all on his own. On top of that you can blitz him and he won't have any idea how to beat it. The protection melts down because they have no idea where Ponder is half the time. You expect to have to block a guy to the outside but oh look Ponder's rolling over there already for no reason.

Ponder sucks because he's just that bad and does a lot of it to himself. This is coming from someone who defended him heavily in the off season thinking his 3rd year with better weapons might actually make a difference. So yeah, I think it's very possible we're 0-4 right now with him. We've lost games with Ponder where the defense and special teams scored 14 points! But yeah he was going to blow up the steelers like Cassel did...