Bears/Vikings Coaches Tape

[Mothman]

Thanks for posting those shots Jim. It does help to see things unfold.

You're welcome. It's funny because the only reason I looked at this play was because of the request to see if Wright was actually wide open, as the announcer stated. What I ended up seeing is Carlson wide open on a play that, as you said, almost seems designed to open up the middle of the field for him. I sure wish we knew why Ponder checked down on this one.

[Demi]

You're welcome. It's funny because the only reason I looked at this play was because of the request to see if Wright was actually wide open, as the announcer stated. What I ended up seeing is Carlson wide open on a play that, as you said, almost seems designed to open up the middle of the field for him. I sure wish we knew why Ponder checked down on this one.

Because the spineless earth worm felt a little pressure coming from the right side and paniced. You could see it at the time, and he even seemed to almost double clutch as he considered it. Guy plays scared. Gun shy dog. Old yeller time.

[Ohjay]

For those of you with access to the coaches film, take a look at Q2 3.02, the interception by T. Jennings.
(I'm at work and can't show any screens for you guys, maybe Mothman can accomodate)

To me it looks like Ponder stares down Simpson and he misreads the CB's movement/coverage. As Ponder releases the ball Carlson is beating his coverage while Simpson will be swallowed up by Jennings.
Also on the other side of the field it looks like another Viking is beating his coverage just as Ponder releases.
Perhaps I'm missing something(wouldn't suprise me) but a throw ahead of Carlson would've been the play to make...
For a smart guy, which Ponder is supposed to be, this is utterly horrible in terms of reading the field.

It's so scary to study the coaches film... really scary!
(Let's continues to watch this horror-show)

[S197]

Jim, thanks so much for putting the collage together. I agree that it doesn't look like Wright was as wide open as the announcers made it seem, maybe he had his guy beat but Carlson was clearly the most open based on the sequence. Did you take a look at the play near the endzone where Ponder threw the incompletion to Carlson? Announcers indicated Jennings was open in the back of the endzone. No need to post the caps if it takes a lot of work, just curious if they saw it correctly.

[losperros]

I think he probably sees it. In fact, he appears to be looking right down the middle of the field at Carlson. I don't see how he could miss it so to me, the question is why didn't he throw it Carlson? I can imagine several answers to that question, from fear to ignorance to distrust in Carlson or lack of trust in himself but I have no idea which answer would be correct. I'd love to hear Ponder's explanation for his choice. I can't imagine an answer that would satisfy his coaches. That pass should have been thrown right down the middle for a nice big gain.

As you said, if Ponder throws to Carlson, the Vikings get good-sized yardage. Looking at the pics, I can't imagine what made Ponder not pull the trigger. All I know is the reason wouldn't be a good one.

For what it's worth, Wright never looks wide open to me either.

Wright isn't open. That's a mistake by Brennaman. Maybe he meant to say Carlson but got them confused.

[Mothman]

Jim, thanks so much for putting the collage together. I agree that it doesn't look like Wright was as wide open as the announcers made it seem, maybe he had his guy beat but Carlson was clearly the most open based on the sequence. Did you take a look at the play near the endzone where Ponder threw the incompletion to Carlson? Announcers indicated Jennings was open in the back of the endzone. No need to post the caps if it takes a lot of work, just curious if they saw it correctly.

I haven't looked at it yet. I'll take a look this morning.

[Mothman]

I know, some of these are questionable. Quickly going through the game, Ponder made a lot of plays. He probably made more plays than he missed which is a good sign. But IMO, he is still a one read QB. There is no second option or extended play.

I think some of those are definitely questionable but some look like they might have been missed ooportunities too. The closing speed of the DBs and the time it takes the ball to get there have to be considered. For example, in that first shot, I think a throw to Simpson could easily result in a pick 6. #33 looks ready to pounce on a pass in that direction and Simpson is just standing there.

I also think a lot depends on where Ponder is in his progression when these guys come open. If he's already looked their way and moved on, it doesn't necessarily matter that they were open. I don't know if that's the case on any of these plays but it happens.

I can assure you, he's not a "one read" QB all the time. At the game, and on film, I've seen him making multiple reads and choose a target. However, there ARE plays where he just makes one read and checks down or where he fails to even look toward a receiver. I don't know why. As I said earlier, maybe the "get the ball out of your hand' clock that's supposed to be running in every QB's head is running fast for him.

Every QB leaves potential plays on the field. Ponder is just leaving too many. Maybe that will change or maybe he'll never get past it.

[majorm]

I wonder if the "get the ball out of your hand" clock in his head is working too fast.

I think you've hit the nail on the head right there. He has in his mind how long he can hold the ball before the pain comes and then just has to throw it somewhere. He just worries too much about the rush and doesn't keep his focus downfield.

This is what seperates the elite QBs from guys like Ponder. Brady just stands there looking downfield with all that beef swarming at him. He looks as if there is nobody on the field except his receivers and the guys covering them. But he still has that sixth sense when a rusher does get too close he can slide in the pocket and buy time. Not tuck and run, but just move enough to give a receiver an extra half second to get open. All the top guys can do that. It's what makes them the top guys.

[Mothman]

2) Later in the same drive I believe, the Vikings were in the endzone and Ponder threw an incompletion to Carlson. Billick again said he missed Jennings in the back of the endzone. Looked to me like their might have been a safety back there but it was difficult to tell from the TV angle.

Here are a couple of screenshots from that play that will hopefully give you an idea of what Billick was talking about. I can post more if you want more.

Jennings lined up wide right and he beats his defender, getting a step and establishing inside position in the back of the endzone. You can clearly see this on the right side of the first image. The second image is from another angle. Jennings wasn't visible from this angle earlier so this shot shows the ball arriving at Carlson and being knocked down by a defender.

In the first shot, you can see Bears safety Chris Conte camped out in the middle of the endzone and in the second, you can see the distance he's been able to move to his left in the time it took Ponder's pass to arrive at Carlson. My guess is he didn't throw to Jennings because even though Jennings beat his defender, Conte was in position to cut off that throw. That's my interpretation anyway.

[Mothman]

Rudolph's TD catch if available. Announcers made it sound like it was a better catch than throw but none of us could see it.

4) On the last drive, Bennett's catch on the long 1st down. The Vikings only brought 4 and Bennett caught the football with probably 15 yards of space around him. Curious how the heck he got THAT wide open.

The Bears ran Cook out of that area. Bennett released off the right side of the line and was chipped by Henderson. You can see this in shot 1.

Henderson released Bennett who ran out of Henderson's zone to the left side of the field (shot 2). Cook is downfield covering Marshall. Greenway dropped deep to double cover Marshall. The safeties were in a two deep shell so far down the field they were useless. When Bennett caught the pass, the safety on that side of the field was 25 yards away from him (shot 3).

Somebody screwed up.





I didn't make any screencaps of Rudolph's TD but I will if you want to see a few. Personally, I thought Ponder put that pass right where it needed to be. Billick called it an excellent throw (or something similarly complimentary) so he liked it too.

Maybe that one will be worth breaking down later. We can focus on a positive play for a change!

[PacificNorseWest]

This may seem like excuses and I have a feeling I'll get lambasted for saying this, but it may not be an ineptitude thing, but a confidence thing.

Quarterbacks, of all positions, need to have the utmost confidence in what they see and feel in order to be successful. It's obvious he's not comfortable with what he's seeing and I believ it may be a confidence issue because we've seen that when he's "hot," he really does have confidence in what he sees and his ability to get the ball to the open man.

[Mothman]

I think you've hit the nail on the head right there. He has in his mind how long he can hold the ball before the pain comes and then just has to throw it somewhere. He just worries too much about the rush and doesn't keep his focus downfield.

This is what seperates the elite QBs from guys like Ponder. Brady just stands there looking downfield with all that beef swarming at him. He looks as if there is nobody on the field except his receivers and the guys covering them. But he still has that sixth sense when a rusher does get too close he can slide in the pocket and buy time. Not tuck and run, but just move enough to give a receiver an extra half second to get open. All the top guys can do that. It's what makes them the top guys.

Top guys or top men?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoy4_h7Pb3M

[Mothman]

This may seem like excuses and I have a feeling I'll get lambasted for saying this, but it may not be an ineptitude thing, but a confidence thing.

Quarterbacks, of all positions, need to have the utmost confidence in what they see and feel in order to be successful. It's obvious he's not comfortable with what he's seeing and I believe it may be a confidence issue because we've seen that when he's "hot," he really does have confidence in what he sees and his ability to get the ball to the open man.

I won't lambast you for that. It's probably close to the mark if not right on target. It's not just about what he sees but how much he trusts what he sees in the moment. I'm sure all of this looks simpler in freeze frame than from eye level on the field, with everyone in motion and players coming at you. I think the non-throw to Jennings (mentioned above) is a good example of this. Conte may or may not be in position to cut off a throw to jennings in the back of the end zone. At the very least, I think it's close but maybe a more confident, experienced QB would pull the trigger on that.

As you said, when Ponder gets "hot", he seems to think less and trust his ability more.

[mansquatch]

Looking at the Carlson Play, I agree with the general conclusion on this thread. The only possible explanation I can think of is that Ponder would need to lead Carlson somewhat on the throw and that might make for a compromised passing lane / tipped ball scenario given where #58 of the Bear is positioned. Not being able to hit FWD/RWD I cannot tell for sure.

[The Breeze]

This may seem like excuses and I have a feeling I'll get lambasted for saying this, but it may not be an ineptitude thing, but a confidence thing.

Quarterbacks, of all positions, need to have the utmost confidence in what they see and feel in order to be successful. It's obvious he's not comfortable with what he's seeing and I believ it may be a confidence issue because we've seen that when he's "hot," he really does have confidence in what he sees and his ability to get the ball to the open man.

I see the same. I also see a real philosophical problem at the foundation of the offense which is twofold.

First is the completely lame attempt at trying to run an NFL offense throught the RB position. Yeah, It's AD.... yadda yadda.....but RBs do one thing. They don't look over defenses and determine coverages or call audibles or timeouts etc. The Vikings have done this. Whether it's intentional or not doesn't matter and the adjustments made by opposing defences have made it all the more difficult for this line and QB to function. It's been that way since AD got here with the exception being 2009 and Favre just taking over.

The idea that Ponder is making more kinds ofmistakes as a result of trying too hard not to make mistakes is legitimate IMO.
And this is the 2nd problem....expecting your QB to 'learn' the game while teaching him to limit his game. Not allowing him to use his instincts and truly fail in a decisive manner rather flail in an indecisive moment. Whether or not that is an effect of the coaching or just on Ponder IDK. Both most likely.

I just don't see how this team can really succeed on offense if the QB is not turned loose to run the show....doesn't matter who is playing the position.

My feeling is that the guy on the field has a better feel for what will work on any given play than a guy on the sideline who hasn't actually played in a game for well over a decade.

Ponder needs to run this offense and take charge of the team....and if that means challenging his coaches, so be it. If he can't meet that challenge he won't succeed regardless of who is around him.

He might just be too nice a guy right now. Too timid in asserting himself...but he does have a great skillset.