Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

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Can Peterson get to 2,500 yards?

Yes.
19
28%
No.
23
34%
Vikings won't let him.
18
26%
No one will ever do it.
8
12%
 
Total votes: 68

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jackal
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by jackal »

That really depends on if A) he has adequate time to find them before getting chased/sacked and B) the receivers can get a step on the defenders.
agreed ..

I don't even count ponder's first year with no off season program and the failed mcflab experiment..

this year with Jennings,Wright and Rudolf the guys has a few options Simpson should be better too..
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Mothman »

dead_poet wrote: That really depends on if A) he has adequate time to find them before getting chased/sacked and B) the receivers can get a step on the defenders. Failure can happen from all over. It's not all on Ponder. However one can speculate (though never confirm) that if we had Tom Brady behind center last year approximately how many more attempts/completions would he have had vs. Ponder. I know if Ponder is being hurried I don't want him to throw an ill-advised pass across his body or throw a ball to a blanketed receiver. That's when bad things happen.
Well said. There have been a lot of comments this offseason about what Ponder should be able to do when there are 8-9 defenders in the box (there are almost never 10 guys on the line) and I sometimes wonder just what people think that means. It certainly doesn't mean receivers are automatically open or even that they're going to get favorable coverage. It can mean one-on-one matchups on the outside but those are only beneficial if a.) the receiver wins the matchup and b.) the play calls for a throw downfield or the QB is free to audible to such a throw. Having 8 or 9 men in the box can also mean it's more difficult to read where a blitz is coming from and more difficult to throw short or intermediate passes.

The biggest advantage against defenses aggressively playing the run is probably be increased effectiveness of the play action pass and the Vikes did make good use of that at times last season. Hopefully, they'll do it more often in 2013.

A defense can prioritize stopping a running back without leaving themselves wide open to big plays in the passing game.
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by dead_poet »

Mothman wrote:There have been a lot of comments this offseason about what Ponder should be able to do when there are 8-9 defenders in the box (there are almost never 10 guys on the line) and I sometimes wonder just what people think that means. It certainly doesn't mean receivers are automatically open or even that they're going to get favorable coverage. It can mean one-on-one matchups on the outside but those are only beneficial if a.) the receiver wins the matchup and b.) the play calls for a throw downfield or the QB is free to audible to such a throw. Having 8 or 9 men in the box can also mean it's more difficult to read where a blitz is coming from and more difficult to throw short or intermediate passes.
And as we saw during much of Ponder's "slump," the Vikings were being blitzed aggressively and relentlessly, the line/backs weren't able to effectively pick it up and Ponder was having next to no time to throw, much less go through a read. In some of those situations you could be Joe Montana or Brett Favre or Johnny Unitas and it wouldn't matter.
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Mothman »

dead_poet wrote: And as we saw during much of Ponder's "slump," the Vikings were being blitzed aggressively and relentlessly, the line/backs weren't able to effectively pick it up and Ponder was having next to no time to throw, much less go through a read. In some of those situations you could be Joe Montana or Brett Favre or Johnny Unitas and it wouldn't matter.
Exactly and those blitzes can be an effective weapon against the run or pass.
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Funkytown »

Purple bruise wrote: My point was that some fans always want to draft, trade etc.. this QB or that QB, which is of course only natural, but to discount Ponder after 1.5 years and ready to spend another 1st round pick on a QB next year seems rediculous. This is his other post, "yup. target tajh noyd, teddy bridgewater or johnny manziel next year. cant imagine two more bad seasons with ponder".
I then was noting that several fans, including him were talking about wanting Simms, Cassell (who they now have), Leftwich, Garcia, Lienhart McNabb etc. to which you replied that no other fans wanted any of the mentioned QBs and I did happen to do a quick search and read where he was championing the possibilty of picking some up those other QBs.
In summation where are those QB's now and how would of they benefited the team? At least Ponder has shown marked improvement over the last fourth of the season and with this latest upgrade of wrs another training camp and better line protection then I see him fullfilling Frazier's and Spielmen expectations. They are seemingly banking, for the most part, their futures on him becoming their QB for a long time.
I apologize to the board for going sooo far off of the topic of AD and his quest for 2500 yds..
It pains me to say this, but Mr. Purple Bruise is right about this. Might not be so much on this board, but from my experience on other boards--Vikings fans always want anyone and everyone but who they have, especially at QB. I've also witnessed all of these bogus "talents" mentioned as "musts" and "sure things" for the Vikings. Don't forget that John David Booty was the future, too. I've read that as well. LOL. People are fancy. Either way, I like Ponder...and I like the fact that the Vikings organization isn't quite as emotional as many of the fans. I'm glad the guys in charge are giving Ponder a little more time! :thumbsup:

As far as Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal...I'd love to see it, but I'm hoping we don't have to see it. I love Peterson to death, but I'm favorable to the passing game. I'd like to see Ponder and the boys light it up!
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Purple bruise »

My point was that some fans always want to draft, trade etc.. this QB or that QB, which is of course only natural, but to discount Ponder after 1.5 years and ready to spend another 1st round pick on a QB next year seems rediculous. This is his other post, "yup. target tajh noyd, teddy bridgewater or johnny manziel next year. cant imagine two more bad seasons with ponder".
I then was noting that several fans, including him were talking about wanting Simms, Cassell (who they now have), Leftwich, Garcia, Lienhart McNabb etc. to which you replied that no other fans wanted any of the mentioned QBs and I did happen to do a quick search and read where he was championing the possibilty of picking some up those other QBs.
In summation where are those QB's now and how would of they benefited the team? At least Ponder has shown marked improvement over the last fourth of the season and with this latest upgrade of wrs another training camp and better line protection then I see him fullfilling Frazier's and Spielmen expectations. They are seemingly banking, for the most part, their futures on him becoming their QB for a long time.
I apologize to the board for going sooo far off of the topic of AD and his quest for 2500 yds..[/quote]
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It pains me to say this, but Mr. Purple Bruise is right about this. Might not be so much on this board, but from my experience on other boards--Vikings fans always want anyone and everyone but who they have, especially at QB. I've also witnessed all of these bogus "talents" mentioned as "musts" and "sure things" for the Vikings. Don't forget that John David Booty was the future, too. I've read that as well. LOL. People are fancy. Either way, I like Ponder...and I like the fact that the Vikings organization isn't quite as emotional as many of the fans. I'm glad the guys in charge are giving Ponder a little more time! :thumbsup:
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As much as it tears my insides out to say this Funk 87 ....thanks for agreeing :wink:
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Reignman »

Mothman wrote: Considered by whom? It seems like something that's very situation and strategy dependent.
Ummm according to league statistics. Obviously it's going to vary from team to team and situation to situation, but we're not talking situational here. The league as a whole in 2012 had exactly a 2 to 1 passing yards to rushing yards ratio (118,418 passing yards to 59,349 rushing yards). The Vikings were nearly 1:1 (2751 passing to 2634 rushing). Coincidentally the Vikings had nearly identical statistics in 2007 (2745 pass to 2634 rushing). Now that's crazy. Hmmm, who was our QB that year? FYI only 7 teams since 2002 had a lower ratio than the 2012 Vikings. And since realignment in 2002 the league ratio has been 1.85:1.
dead_poet wrote:That really depends on if A) he has adequate time to find them before getting chased/sacked and B) the receivers can get a step on the defenders. Failure can happen from all over. It's not all on Ponder. However one can speculate (though never confirm) that if we had Tom Brady behind center last year approximately how many more attempts/completions would he have had vs. Ponder. I know if Ponder is being hurried I don't want him to throw an ill-advised pass across his body or throw a ball to a blanketed receiver. That's when bad things happen.
The Ponder apologists can start a support group and these can be it's "talking points" lol. I imagine the list would look something like this ... A) The offensive line didn't give him time B) We have the worst receivers in NFL history C) It's Musgraves play calling D) He had no training camp as a rookie E) He's only had 26 career starts F) We're a run first team G) <insert random future hall of fame QB's name here> had similar numbers at this stage of his career too H) He's only doing what the coaches told him to do I) The defenses blitz too much J) He's a 3 year project. Or if you prefer we can do them in top 10 format a la David Letterman too haha. "Top 10 excuses for Christian Ponders poor play"

But I digress ... or am I done digressing xD? Well anyway for AD to get to 2500 yards we'd have to have a seriously imbalanced offense or the whole season would have to be based on getting him to his goal. If we have big leads late, I doubt AD will be out there running out the clock, so he better plan on averaging 8 yards per carry in a lot of close games to even sniff 2500 yards. I really wish he wouldn't have even mentioned such a ridiculous number and just went out and chased the record again.
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Mothman »

Reignman wrote:Ummm according to league statistics. Obviously it's going to vary from team to team and situation to situation, but we're not talking situational here. The league as a whole in 2012 had exactly a 2 to 1 passing yards to rushing yards ratio (118,418 passing yards to 59,349 rushing yards). The Vikings were nearly 1:1 (2751 passing to 2634 rushing). Coincidentally the Vikings had nearly identical statistics in 2007 (2745 pass to 2634 rushing). Now that's crazy. Hmmm, who was our QB that year? FYI only 7 teams since 2002 had a lower ratio than the 2012 Vikings. And since realignment in 2002 the league ratio has been 1.85:1.
I get what you're saying but I don't think the league average tells us what run/pass ratio is considered balanced in football because it's an average of the full range of balance and imbalance. Perhaps this is just a semantic issue but I think there's a difference between what is average and what is "considered balanced". The former is purely a question of statistics, the latter one of personnel, strategy, philosophical approach, etc. It undoubtedly varies from team to team.

I hope that makes sense. I get the feeling we're talking about different things here.
The Ponder apologists can start a support group and these can be it's "talking points" lol. I imagine the list would look something like this ... A) The offensive line didn't give him time B) We have the worst receivers in NFL history C) It's Musgraves play calling D) He had no training camp as a rookie E) He's only had 26 career starts F) We're a run first team G) <insert random future hall of fame QB's name here> had similar numbers at this stage of his career too H) He's only doing what the coaches told him to do I) The defenses blitz too much J) He's a 3 year project. Or if you prefer we can do them in top 10 format a la David Letterman too haha. "Top 10 excuses for Christian Ponders poor play"
LOL! ... and his harsh critics can just put their hands over their ears and chant "No excuses, it's all on Ponder! No excuses, it's all on Ponder".
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Reignman »

Mothman wrote:I get what you're saying but I don't think the league average tells us what run/pass ratio is considered balanced in football because it's an average of the full range of balance and imbalance. Perhaps this is just a semantic issue but I think there's a difference between what is average and what is "considered balanced". The former is purely a question of statistics, the latter one of personnel, strategy, philosophical approach, etc. It undoubtedly varies from team to team.

I hope that makes sense. I get the feeling we're talking about different things here.
That's entirely possible. Comparing passing yards to rushing yards is like apples to oranges. It's easier to gain yards through the air than on the ground, unless you're the 2012 Vikings xD. If we were talking about attempts than 1:1 would be considered more balanced I suppose, but even then passing has a 1.2:1 advantage haha. Heck the Vikings are considered a run first team, but they had 515 pass plays to 486 run plays.
Mothman wrote: LOL! ... and his harsh critics can just put their hands over their ears and chant "No excuses, it's all on Ponder! No excuses, it's all on Ponder".
Haha all in good fun. I'm not saying Ponder is ALWAYS to blame, but sometimes you just gotta go with Occams Razor. I mean you could nitpick every bad play and find someone other than Ponder to blame until he's the first player voted into the hall of fame simply for having the misfortune of always playing with terrible teammates.
"Our playoff loss to the Vikings in '87 was probably the most traumatic experience I had in sports." -- Bill Walsh
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by mondry »

Reignman wrote:]The Ponder apologists can start a support group and these can be it's "talking points" lol. I imagine the list would look something like this ... A) The offensive line didn't give him time B) We have the worst receivers in NFL history C) It's Musgraves play calling D) He had no training camp as a rookie E) He's only had 26 career starts F) We're a run first team G) <insert random future hall of fame QB's name here> had similar numbers at this stage of his career too H) He's only doing what the coaches told him to do I) The defenses blitz too much J) He's a 3 year project. Or if you prefer we can do them in top 10 format a la David Letterman too haha. "Top 10 excuses for Christian Ponders poor play"
The fact that you can even rattle of 10 "legit" issues like that should tell you something. Anyone who actually watched the games in 2012 should easily understand those 10 things likely had at least some impact on a QB's play.

Regardless of the issues, Ponder improved dramatically (both through out the year and compared to 2011) and continued on an upward trend to finish out the season despite his #1 WR not suiting up. To go against that data at this point in time is really just taking a shot in the dark, of course so is saying he'll be a great one but at least the stats and circumstances and the upward trend of his performances at least point in that direction. In the end, there really isn't sufficient data to say one way or the other with 100% accuracy just yet so the only "correct" answer is simply we don't know yet. Of course everyone can have an opinion and take a guess one way or the other, it's essentially a 50/50 chance and this is a public message board so why not?
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Reignman »

mondry wrote:The fact that you can even rattle of 10 "legit" issues like that should tell you something. Anyone who actually watched the games in 2012 should easily understand those 10 things likely had at least some impact on a QB's play.
Yeah it tells me we have a superstar QB being held back by the worst team in NFL history xD. But you DID NOT just use the word "dramatic" to describe Ponders improvement last year. I'm just going to pretend I didn't see that because I fear you're just trying to troll me there.
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by hibbingviking »

Peterson is on an average team and nearly breaks dickersons record. I can definitely see 2500.
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by mondry »

Reignman wrote:Yeah it tells me we have a superstar QB being held back by the worst team in NFL history xD. But you DID NOT just use the word "dramatic" to describe Ponders improvement last year. I'm just going to pretend I didn't see that because I fear you're just trying to troll me there.
2011 - 54.3% completion rate - 13 INT's in 11 games - 30 sacks taken - QBR 70.1
2012 - 62.1% completion rate - 12 INT's in 16 games - 32 sacks taken - QBR 81.2

When it comes to the important things the coaches were looking for he was really good. He turned the ball over less in 16 games than he did in 11 the year before, he took 2 more sacks but over 5 more games. This shows he's being much smarter with the ball, though of course he still made mistakes.

He improved on his completion percentage by 7.7% which is incredibly important for our offense and his QBR went up 11 points. This is on par with quarterbacks like Matt Ryan in his second year.

If the word "dramtic" sends you into screaming troll you will love what I have to say about next year if he makes the same dramatic improvements again! :) *HINT* It rhymes with dole and it's super!
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Mothman »

mondry wrote:If the word "dramtic" sends you into screaming troll you will love what I have to say about next year if he makes the same dramatic improvements again! :) *HINT* It rhymes with dole and it's super!
Super goal!
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Re: Peterson and his 2,500 yard goal.

Post by Reignman »

mondry wrote:2011 - 54.3% completion rate - 13 INT's in 11 games - 30 sacks taken - QBR 70.1
2012 - 62.1% completion rate - 12 INT's in 16 games - 32 sacks taken - QBR 81.2

When it comes to the important things the coaches were looking for he was really good. He turned the ball over less in 16 games than he did in 11 the year before, he took 2 more sacks but over 5 more games. This shows he's being much smarter with the ball, though of course he still made mistakes.

He improved on his completion percentage by 7.7% which is incredibly important for our offense and his QBR went up 11 points. This is on par with quarterbacks like Matt Ryan in his second year.

If the word "dramtic" sends you into screaming troll you will love what I have to say about next year if he makes the same dramatic improvements again! :) *HINT* It rhymes with dole and it's super!
That's funny because I interpret the "improvement" a little differently. I know, surprise surprise, xD, but let me explain.

He was thrust into the starting role a little premature in 2011, but he played enough for the coaches to learn his down field floaters weren't going to work in the NFL. Fast forward to 2012 and the new ultra conservative game plan. Some seem to forget the plays we run have a lot to do with the skills (or lack there of) of the guy throwing the ball. With a shorter game plan, naturally you're going to see a rise in completion percentage. That would also help explain the drop in INT's. Shorter passes, more conservative play calling, and taking fewer chances. In other words after seeing what he had in 2011 they asked him to be more careful in 2012. I wonder why. And his drop in average yards per attempt (6.4 to 6.1) helps back it all up. Also his TD's per game dropped from 1.23 (10.5 games) to 1.13. Where you see dramatic I see concern. The fact that our passing offense got more conservative speaks volumes.

But you're right, we'll find out more by the end of 2013. I just hope the answer we get is definitive whether we win the super dole or not. I hope he lights it up or falls flat on his face so we don't go into another off-season with uncertainty.
"Our playoff loss to the Vikings in '87 was probably the most traumatic experience I had in sports." -- Bill Walsh
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