Everyone's heard a billion times by now that Kirk Cousins has a 5-25 record against teams with a season winning record. What does that actually mean, though? Wouldn't you expect all QB's to have poorer records against good teams? How do other QB's stack up? Let's find out!
I used Pro-Football-Reference's Team Game Finder to find team records against teams with a winning season (end-of-season record), and then matched those games up with games that individual QB's started. I picked about a dozen or so QB's that have been regular starters and have been in the league since at least 2015 but not further back than 2008. I'll be honest and say that laziness played a big part in what QB's I picked. No one before 2008, no sporadic starters, and no one who jumped around teams a lot because it takes more effort to get those stats.
So, here's the stats: QB record and win%, overall and vs. winning/nonwinning teams, sorted by the difference between QB's win% vs winning and nonwinning teams.
Thank you. This should shut down the talk of Cousins being unfairly judged by this stat. The reality is that Kirk is just not a big game QB.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
The eagles had a winning record and made the playoffs last year. But when cousins beat them they didn’t have a winning record so it doesn’t count as a “good team” win for him. That’s why I think the stat is bogus. I can’t imagine how many 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc teams he’s played and beat and they finished the year with a winning record but it didn’t count as a “win” for him in that category. It’s just a meaningless stat IMO. They make it look way worse than it probably is. It’s definitely not good, but it’s much better than 5 wins I guarantee it. Rodgers is 17-26 all time vs winning teams. But who knows how that’s calculated since he’s looked at as a god
You're misquoting. It's "winning team" and not good team. Teams with records over .500 to finish the year. I generally consider teams with those records to be "good" but that's not always true.
It's an important distinction because "winning" can be quantified.
Philly didn’t get counted last year. And they had a “winning” record. They didn’t have a winning record when we played them early in the year though
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Thank you. This should shut down the talk of Cousins being unfairly judged by this stat. The reality is that Kirk is just not a big game QB.
Well nobody is claiming he is a big name QB. I’m referring to the Philly game last year
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Posted: Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:27 pm
by Pondering Her Percy
808vikingsfan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:35 pm
Don't need to look at this stat. I thought he choked in big games and pressure situations in WAS and I haven't seen anything here in MIN to make me think otherwise. Today's performance didnt change my mind. A couple of really nice intermediate throws but the rest were short screens that gained a lot of yards because NYG had zero LBs He still looks indecisive and late on a few throws. When he was pressured, he bailed from the pocket. He just can't handle pressure well. I'm also surprised how many times the naked boot worked today.
We did boot a ton which is smart to get him away from the poor pass blocking of this OL. But when he’s pressured and bailed from the pocket, isn’t that what we would want him to do? Especially when there isn’t a pocket to step into? I would say yes, so I’m not sure why that’s a knock on him. Either way, this was another one of those lose-lose games for cousins. If he plays well (which he did) and we win (which we did), it means nothing because it’s not a “winning team” but if we lost (no matter how good he played), fans would be ready to hang him.
Bottom line is, we won on the road and he played well. I could give two craps who the team was, the team did their job today. Cousins did his, cook did his, the WRs did theirs, the defense did theirs, the OL somewhat did theirs and the OC found a way to balance this offense. Period. We won. Onto Philly
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Thank you. This should shut down the talk of Cousins being unfairly judged by this stat. The reality is that Kirk is just not a big game QB.
Well nobody is claiming he is a big name QB. I’m referring to the Philly game last year
Big GAME quarterback, not big name.
And you're right. Nobody in their right mind would claim Kirk Cousins is a big GAME quarterback. The excellent work by Cliff proves it. Seriously ... 69% wins against losing teams, and 16% wins against winning teams? That's horrendous.
And I wish I had Cousins' numbers on late-afternoon national games and prime-time games. I'm guessing it's even worse.
I hope he turns it around. He's got a chance next week against Philly. The conditions couldn't be more favorable. A noon game at home against a 3-2 team.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Well nobody is claiming he is a big name QB. I’m referring to the Philly game last year
Big GAME quarterback, not big name.
And you're right. Nobody in their right mind would claim Kirk Cousins is a big GAME quarterback. The excellent work by Cliff proves it. Seriously ... 69% wins against losing teams, and 16% wins against winning teams? That's horrendous.
And I wish I had Cousins' numbers on late-afternoon national games and prime-time games. I'm guessing it's even worse.
I hope he turns it around. He's got a chance next week against Philly. The conditions couldn't be more favorable. A noon game at home against a 3-2 team.
I meant to say big game. It didn’t type correctly. Why would I say big name? Lol
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
You're misquoting. It's "winning team" and not good team. Teams with records over .500 to finish the year. I generally consider teams with those records to be "good" but that's not always true.
It's an important distinction because "winning" can be quantified.
Philly didn’t get counted last year. And they had a “winning” record. They didn’t have a winning record when we played them early in the year though
Counted in what? I am pretty sure Philly is one of those 5 wins against winning teams.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Philly didn’t get counted last year. And they had a “winning” record. They didn’t have a winning record when we played them early in the year though
Counted in what? I am pretty sure Philly is one of those 5 wins against winning teams.
That’s what I’m referring to. Is it?? Because I thought going into last year it was said that he had 5 wins against winning teams. Prior to the Philly game
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
You're misquoting. It's "winning team" and not good team. Teams with records over .500 to finish the year. I generally consider teams with those records to be "good" but that's not always true.
It's an important distinction because "winning" can be quantified.
Philly didn’t get counted last year. And they had a “winning” record. They didn’t have a winning record when we played them early in the year though
Philly isn't counted in the 5-25 W/L stats because the "5 wins" stat is pre-2018. His record actually looks worse now. The Vikings went something like 1-5 against winning teams last season. So now it's something like 6-31 or 7-31.
This year can't be properly calculated because the year isn't over. I think there's a good chance ATL and NY are going to be .500 or below though.
**Edit - I went through last year's schedule to verify the info from last season. The Vikings were 1-6 against teams that ended the year with a winning record changing Cousins stat to 6-31 rather than 5-25. The one win is against Philly.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Philly didn’t get counted last year. And they had a “winning” record. They didn’t have a winning record when we played them early in the year though
Philly isn't counted in the 5-25 W/L stats because the "5 wins" stat is pre-2018. His record actually looks worse now. The Vikings went something like 1-5 against winning teams last season. So now it's something like 6-31 or 7-31.
This year can't be properly calculated because the year isn't over. I think there's a good chance ATL and NY are going to be .500 or below though.
**Edit - I went through last year's schedule to verify the info from last season. The Vikings were 1-6 against teams that ended the year with a winning record changing Cousins stat to 6-31 rather than 5-25. The one win is against Philly.
It is weird that we are quoting a year old stat when the updated one is actually worse and proves the point even more.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Philly didn’t get counted last year. And they had a “winning” record. They didn’t have a winning record when we played them early in the year though
Philly isn't counted in the 5-25 W/L stats because the "5 wins" stat is pre-2018. His record actually looks worse now. The Vikings went something like 1-5 against winning teams last season. So now it's something like 6-31 or 7-31.
This year can't be properly calculated because the year isn't over. I think there's a good chance ATL and NY are going to be .500 or below though.
**Edit - I went through last year's schedule to verify the info from last season. The Vikings were 1-6 against teams that ended the year with a winning record changing Cousins stat to 6-31 rather than 5-25. The one win is against Philly.
Thanks for doing the leg work on it Cliff. So the stat is based off of how they finish at years end then? Not if a team is 2-3 when we play them but finish 10-6 at years end? Correct?
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Philly isn't counted in the 5-25 W/L stats because the "5 wins" stat is pre-2018. His record actually looks worse now. The Vikings went something like 1-5 against winning teams last season. So now it's something like 6-31 or 7-31.
This year can't be properly calculated because the year isn't over. I think there's a good chance ATL and NY are going to be .500 or below though.
**Edit - I went through last year's schedule to verify the info from last season. The Vikings were 1-6 against teams that ended the year with a winning record changing Cousins stat to 6-31 rather than 5-25. The one win is against Philly.
Thanks for doing the leg work on it Cliff. So the stat is based off of how they finish at years end then? Not if a team is 2-3 when we play them but finish 10-6 at years end? Correct?
No problem, I didn't put together the original stat but I did spot check it. I ran through two seasons because it just didn't seem accurate.
Yes, that is right. On the flip side a team could be 4-1 when Cousins played against them but if they end the year 6-10 they're considered a losing team.
By the way, this whole Cousins record against winning teams stat - I admit that it's impossible to completely quantify. Football is a team game and a single person doesn't win or lose on their own.
On the other hand, I'm a data guy and a trend is a trend. If by the end of the season Cousins is something like 1-5 or 1-6 against "teams that end the season with winning records" ... at what point do we think it's just how teams Kirk is on are gonna do? Even if we can't agree on it being his style of play that's the problem ... he would at best be super unlucky.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:47 pm
by TSonn
Lots of good stuff here:
Pat originally hated on Kirk last week but then changed his tune to blaming Zimmer for the offensive faults.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:57 pm
by StumpHunter
TSonn wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:47 pm
Lots of good stuff here:
Pat originally hated on Kirk last week but then changed his tune to blaming Zimmer for the offensive faults.
It is Zimmer's fault Cousins can't see open receivers. Everyone knows that.
Re: Kirk Cousins is just NOT a big game quarterback
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:58 pm
by J. Kapp 11
TSonn wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:47 pm
Lots of good stuff here:
Pat originally hated on Kirk last week but then changed his tune to blaming Zimmer for the offensive faults.
So what do we think?
Did the Thielen and Diggs comments actually sway the coaching staff to throw the ball more yesterday, as speculated here?