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I had that same feeling as I typed it.dead_poet wrote: I just want this to be recognized. Because we get to say it now and it is true and it is awesome.
It's so great to finally be able to say Cris Carter is going to be in the Hall of Fame!Bad quarterback play, slow starts in the 40, muscles around the knee not 100%. All have some, if not a lot of legitimacy to them. And let's make this clear...I'm NOT a 40 guy. I think they mean much less the 90% of people out here. Especially with a guy like Allen who was never a burner anyway. Fact is, this guys stock has dropped a lot since 2011 and I see too many possible red flags that are being used as justification for people that are fiending over the thought of a #1 receiver. Allen is not that in my opinion.Mothman wrote: Not being back to 100% after knee surgery isn't an excuse, it's a reason.
His game tape certainly seems to be lighting up film rooms for somebody because there's an awful lot of interest in him.
Fair enough but I question whether the receivers you mentioned outshine Allen either. This draft doesn't appear to have a receiver that will be a clear "#1 receiver" in the NFL (however that's defined).PacificNorseWest wrote:Bad quarterback play, slow starts in the 40, muscles around the knee not 100%. All have some, if not a lot of legitimacy to them. And let's make this clear...I'm NOT a 40 guy. I think they mean much less the 90% of people out here. Especially with a guy like Allen who was never a burner anyway. Fact is, this guys stock has dropped a lot since 2011 and I see too many possible red flags that are being used as justification for people that are fiending over the thought of a #1 receiver. Allen is not that in my opinion.
I guess lighting up the film room is open to interpretation, but nothing jumps out to me that suggest his worth over others that are projected second rounders without the injury concern. Doesn't outshine Robert Woods, Da'Rick Rodgers, Terrence Williams...Not in my eyes. I guess we'll see, but my gut says stay away.
Completely agree. That is just based off of my opinion so I'm not stubborn to the point were I feel I'm 100% right. I guess that's why it's important that Minnesota really trusts their talent evaluators and even more, draft guys that will make the impact that we all want.Mothman wrote: Fair enough but I question whether the receivers you mentioned outshine Allen either. This draft doesn't appear to have a receiver that will be a clear "#1 receiver" in the NFL (however that's defined).
Well said! I feel the same way.PacificNorseWest wrote:I agree. That is just based off of my opinion so I'm not stubborn to the point were I feel I'm 100% right. I guess that's why it's important that Minnesota really trusts their talent evaluators and even more, draft guys that will make the impact that we all want.
HardcoreVikesFan wrote:I still want Kennan Allen, or Justin Hunter. I have been pushing for those players since January!
Unfortunately, I think Minnesota may pass over a WR in the first all together. If they do, they better go draft Robert Woods.
dead_poet wrote:interesting.
Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Player
A league source tells The Sideline View's Lance Zierlein that Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson could fall out of the first round.
NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah is hearing the same thing. At 6-foot-2, 216 pounds with 4.42 wheels, Patterson is a freak athlete, but a raw route runner. He's also been nicked for his tendency to "body catch," though he didn't struggle with drops in college. Patterson was reportedly "very unimpressive" in his Combine interviews. Patterson has legitimate question marks, but he could end up one of the steals of the draft if he falls to day two.
Source: Lance Zierlein on Twitter
With the new CBA, the salary is pretty manageable. I mean, it's not as outrageous as it would've been a few years ago. As an example, last year WR Michael Floyd was drafted 13th overall and signed a 4-year, $9.972 million contract. If Austin or Patterson get somewhere in that neighborhood I wouldn't think that'd be a mistake.losperros wrote:Also, should any NFL team be paying first round pick money to these WRs?
I look at it more like how many receivers without great speed or other measurables turn into Cris Carters or Anquan Boldins?Mothman wrote: Look at it this way, would Cris Carter or Anquan Boldin have been worth a first round pick? neither was and I'm not saying Allen will ever achieve what those two did but if a team believed he could, why wouldn't they spend a first on him? Carter's going to the Hall of Fame and Boldin's been terrific.
I think I did list "non-wow" qualities that can contribute to success at WR in the NFL, and I think I did say that Allen has some of those qualities (if not said directly, I meant to imply it), but in the end the draft is about balancing risk-reward at every slot. All else being equal, a slower player with less "wow" measurables probably carries a lower reward potential than a guy with perhaps more risk but better measurables. I think in the first round the balance definitely tips in favor of the guys who bring more in terms of potential to the table. It's not everything, and there are certainly players with massive potential where the risk is just too great, but teams that win end up finding and drafting the players where the ratio is most in their favor.Mothman wrote: It seems like there's a tendency to equate speed and "wow" play ability with greatness at WR and to value those qualities above others that can be equally valuable. However, I think you'll agree that a WR who can "consistently make those position-based catches using his body, the sideline, the refs, etc., plus learn to recognize coverages and find ways to break to daylight" is a huge asset to a team.
dead_poet wrote: With the new CBA, the salary is pretty manageable. I mean, it's not as outrageous as it would've been a few years ago. As an example, last year WR Michael Floyd was drafted 13th overall and signed a 4-year, $9.972 million contract. If Austin or Patterson get somewhere in that neighborhood I wouldn't think that'd be a mistake.
That's definitely the smart way to look at it.VikingLord wrote:I look at it more like how many receivers without great speed or other measurables turn into Cris Carters or Anquan Boldins?
You did. I didn't mean that comment to sound directed at you. I was referring to a general tendency and should have made that clear. Sorry...I think I did list "non-wow" qualities that can contribute to success at WR in the NFL...
That's probably true but how often is "all else" really equal?...and I think I did say that Allen has some of those qualities (if not said directly, I meant to imply it), but in the end the draft is about balancing risk-reward at every slot. All else being equal, a slower player with less "wow" measurables probably carries a lower reward potential than a guy with perhaps more risk but better measurables.
I'd say rarely. To me, measurables should be the least important aspect of player evaluation because they're measurements of specific athletic traits taken outside the context of football. They're certainly not useless but drills, tape, scouting, interviews, etc. all strike me as more useful.I don't know... it seems like a lot of those picks based on athletic potential are where teams blow it, going for speed or athleticism over savvy and skill and coming up with the short straw. I think the teams that get the most out of the draft are those that target players who fit what they want to do, who fit their system/roster and consequently, become very productive. That's why I wouldn't say in the end, the draft is about balancing risk-reward at every slot, although evaluating risk/reward has to be part of the process. In the end, I think it's simply about team-building, getting productive players that fit into a vision of the team as a whole. Maybe that's another way of saying the same thing and if so, I apologize.I think in the first round the balance definitely tips in favor of the guys who bring more in terms of potential to the table. It's not everything, and there are certainly players with massive potential where the risk is just too great, but teams that win end up finding and drafting the players where the ratio is most in their favor.
It has but I don't think it's any great cause for concern unless a team examines that knee and believes there's likely to be a long term issue there. Otherwise, it's just an injury that came at an inopportune time. Once he's full received from it (and he seems pretty far along) there's probably no reason to believe it's a concern at all. It's not as if he needs to line up and play his first game in May.Also, it's not like Allen doesn't carry risk. His knee injury alone should be of great concern to any team considering spending a 1st on him. That is known, and so far it appears to have affected him seriously in terms of this pre-draft eval process.
I don't keep track of prior year's drafts the way I did before, so I can't give you the hard data you want and deserve. But the soft data - my opinion - is that certain positions are overvalued in the draft, and those are the ones with the higher failure rate. Teams seem to fall in love with WR's, QB's, and DE's. Maybe add OT and CB's to that list. Those positions tend to have a bigger bust potential. First round tight ends, offensive guards and centers, safeties, non-pass rushing linebackers, and now running backs tend not to get people drooling. So they don't get overhyped and you don't get a "run" on those guys like you do for the other positions, as people draft for need. So if you get a guy with a first round grade at one of the "lesser" positions - say a guy like Harrison Smith - it makes sense to grab him because he's less likely to be Darius Heyward-Bey (the Troy Williamson of our history, the Cordarelle Patterson of the next team's).Mothman wrote:You've raised this point in the past, John, and WR is a somewhat risky position to draft in the first round so I understand your reservations. However, draft history is littered with players at every position who showed major ability in college and didn't cut it in the pros. There's no such thing as a truly safe pick at any position. We don't really find out if players were "safe" choices until they've played in the league for a while. I understand teams can strategize and try to reduce the odds of drafting a bust but the risk is always going to be there. They have to trust their evaluations and hope for the best.