S197 wrote:In terms of what I want to see from Ponder, it's not stats driven.
First and foremost, I think it would be pocket poise. The NFL is the best of the best, there are no perfect pockets where you have five yards of distance between you and the opposition like in college. It's chaotic, with complicated blitzes, hands in the air, and most of the time, seconds at most to throw. It's very difficult but a good QB needs to realize when pressure is truly there and when it isn't. When to scramble, when to throw it away, and when to just hang in the pocket that extra fraction of a second to let that guy downfield get open. I'm not worried about his arm strength, when his mechanics are sound, he can deliver the football.
Second would be pre-snap recognition. Ponder is going to get blitzed, it's simply part of the scheme that's run. Defenses will blitz to stop AD and they will blitz until the Vikings show some sort of downfield threat. He needs to pick this up and make the correct read (which sometimes can be a check down). If the linebackers are blitzing and you have a receiver running a slant over the middle, that's the throw you make. A good example was the Burton interception. Burton ran a slant behind the blitz and Ponder made the right throw, unfortunately Burton pulled up on the route. However, if Ponder doesn't see him, it can be viewed as a breakdown in protection when really it is a misread. Little nuances like that are what can elevate a QB to the next level.
Lastly, I'd like to see Ponder take a page from Favre and gunsling it a little more (sorry Jim!). As we all know, this type of QB can result in fantastic plays but also heartbreaking mistakes, but I think to date Ponder is still a little too conservative with his throws. He's shown the ability to throw into tight windows, I'd just like to see him take a little more of those chances. He needs to trust himself and his receivers and push the football.
That's more or less what I'm looking for from Ponder as the "next step." It's subjective so there's no stat or grade to say when or if he's made that leap, it'll come when it comes (hopefully). I'm not saying the pass protection has been great and Ponder has been playing with sub-par receivers to date, but this is a thread about Ponder's next step, and those are a few of the things I'll personally be looking for.
Whether you're an apologist, polemic, or just plain agnostic on the issue, I think we can all agree that Sunday can't come around quick enough.
THIS RIGHT HERE! Holy cow it's like you read my mind.
mondry wrote:20+ TD's, 12 or lower INT's, 3,500 to 4,000 yards (this really depends on if Adrian drops down to say a 1500 yard year, or hops up to that 2500 he's after, if he's approaching 2000+ again Ponder won't get to 4000) 6.7+ yards per attempt, 65% completion rate, 70 rushes (scrambles) for 300 yards, 3 rushing TD's. QBR 95+
Oh man, I love those numbers. But you're right, it depends greatly on how AD does this year. If AD is struggling we're going to need Ponder to step it up. Heck I might even join the Ponder bandwagon if he's consistent, looks confident, and puts up numbers in this neighborhood. And as far as the YPA goes, the lower it is, the higher the completion percent needs to be.
dead_poet wrote:
Here's my rub with this stat: what if he's asked to throw a healthy amount of designed screens/slants again this season? This naturally lowers his YPA through no fault of his own. Of course some are quick to speculate (or state as fact because it just feels true) that they ask him to do this because "it's all he can do" rather than to maximize the talents of Patterson/Wright/Jennings (and Harvin last season). I agree that I'd like to see his YPA rise, but he shouldn't be chastised for executing designed short throws.
I think you kinda answered your question already, and no he shouldn't be chastised, but the real issue is he should be able to connect on the deep ball a little more consistently when it's there. Especially with AD in the back field, Ponder should be making a killing off the PA.
Purple bruise wrote:
Very interesting read, thank you for posting it. Of course it will be viewed as another excuse
Well I don't know about an excuse, but as Eli correctly pointed out already, if a team spots a weakness they're going to exploit it as much as possible. And we proved early and often in the preseason that we couldn't handle the blitz so I expect to see a healthy dose of it come Sunday and Ponder needs to show he's capable of burning them when they do.
MelanieMFunk wrote:I agree with you guys--that individual stats aren't everything. But, that doesn't change the fact that that is how Ponder is going to be judged. That's just how it works. Fans have
a lot of opinions about his stats, so I wanted to see where people
think he should be at by year's end. Honestly, I would think that people on both sides would have similar expectations, but maybe not. Of course, some people are more forgiving than others.
Well I only harp on his dismal stats because they reflect what I've seen when I watch him play. He doesn't look comfortable, nor confident, and he's been hesitant to pull the trigger or take shots. And when I watch him throw deep it just doesn't look right, and again the numbers reflect that. I've seen him put zip on the ball so I know he's capable, but for whatever reason he chooses to put more touch on the ball and that allows defenders to close or even make plays. For example, that red zone pass to Rudolph at Lambeau last year. Rudolph was wide open and it would have been an easy TD, but Ponder chose to float it out there and it allowed the defense to get there and make a tackle. Had he slung that ball it would have been an easy TD. We ended up with a TD anyway, but the point is still valid. More zip less float.
DavidKarki wrote:And just what makes you think Musgrave has any clue what a spread offense and/or the read option are and appreciates their effectiveness in the slightest?
In my book, Musgrave is just as much the "herp a derp"-er as Ponder....2 TEs and a FB to run 30+ times a game in the Pass Wacky Era? Really? Seriously?
I know we can play the chicken-and-the-egg game all day long between Ponder and Musgrave's warmed-over Childress KAO. I'll settle for it being a "both/and" rather than an "either/or" proposition with those two. Same goes for the defense, clinging to the Tampa Two long after it has run its course. A decade of seeing opposing QBs play pitch-and-catch with slot WRs and TEs behind the LBs and between the safeties to convert third-and-long is quite enough.
At what point do we hold the coaching responsible for using such simplistic schemes that are SO out of step with the times? (Or, for that matter, Zygi for not conducting a real search after firing Childress but promoting all the in-house status quo until the stadium issue was resolved.) Are the Vikings really determined to be the last team to the table when it comes to spreading and throwing so as to exploit the rigged rules? Is it going to take Peterson retiring or blowing out another knee before they start adapting?
Top shelf! Don't get me started on Frazier and co and their "schemes". From the WCO that we pretend to run that looks nothing like a WCO, to that "let em catch it and try to make a fundamental tackle" cover 2 business that even makes likes of Tim Tebow look like a pro bowl caliber QB. It almost looks like they're just winging it as they go.
However Chicago runs a more aggressive, ball hawkish version of the cover 2. For whatever reason we're a lot more conservative. In fact it almost seems like we're in prevent D the entire game when we go up against upper tier QB's. The early 2000's Bucs also ran a very aggressive ball hawkish cover 2. That version seems to be a lot more effective than what we're running.
