Into the Bye - State of 2019 Campaign Assessment

[S197]

I'm least worried about Linval. Johnson has stepped up very well for him and honestly the run defense has looked improved. And that's against Zeke and Lindsay. Watts in limited play looked pretty good too, he seems to be climbing the depth chart.

Most worried about our pass defense. Particularly big plays. The Vikings rank 30th in QB rating on deep throws only behind the Bengals and Raiders. I think last year they were 7th and the year before top 3. That's big time regression and frankly unacceptable given the amount of draft capital invested.

I'm hoping the 2nd half adjustments Stefanski made can be part of the scheme going forward. More up tempo and different personnel packages, including more shotgun. What worries me is the scripted plays in 2 or the last 3 games have been very poor. Both KC and Denver the offense started very slow.

Cousins I want to see him get in touch with his inner Favre. Push the ball down field. Throw contested balls, we literally have 2 of the best WRs in contested catches and it's badly under utilized. Coaching also needs to let him do this. They need to realize that this is no longer a defense that can win them games with conservative playcalling on offense. We need to score points. If it means more turnovers, so be it. Thielen said it himself, you need to be able to keep defenses honest and take shots downfield. Look at the success of that in the 2nd half vs the check down fest of the 1st.

[J. Kapp 11]

This sounds weird, but I'm concerned with special teams.

Kicking game is solid. Bailey has really made a nice comeback, thanks in part to Colquitt, who does a great job holding. Yesterday he fielded a low snap on an extra point and got it in place smoothly. That was huge, as Denver could have tied the game with a FG if we had messed up that XP.

The problem for me is our return game and coverage. Bailey has about 75% touchbacks, which is good, but we've given up too many big-ish returns on kickoffs that don't result in a touchback. Denver's last drive was set up by a 42-yard return.

We also lead the NFL in special teams fumbles. Yesterday, we had two muffed punts and a disastrous fumbled kickoff return. Pair that with virtually no returns of significance in either the punt or kickoff return games, and it's not good.

Also, the dumb penalties. Eric Wilson yesterday cost us 3 very important points in the second half by jumping offsides, and for what? We had momentum, and we were getting the ball back. That's not the first time we've given an opponent a second chance on special teams.

Defensively, it's hard to put a finger on what's wrong. Statistically, Brandon Allen had a pretty horrible looking game. Less than 50% completions, a 61 QBR. But the stats lie in this case. He averaged only 6 yards per attempt, but 14 yards per completion. That's been the story this year. We've given up more big plays than I've ever seen a Zimmer-coached Vikings defense surrender. Gonna have to figure this out because Seattle and Green Bay can strike fast with downfield passing. I don't worry too much about the hapless Bears offense, and the Lions are pretty tame without Stafford. But Seattle and Green Bay can torch us if we don't fix this.

Offensively, I mostly love what we're doing. We've played most of the past five games without Adam Thielen, yet we've won four of them. I think Kirk Cousins had a real turning-point game yesterday. The Broncos did everything possible to stop Dalvin Cook, daring Cousins to beat them. And he did. That's big because in the past when Dalvin has been shut down, we've not been able to overcome it. It's important for this team to not totally give up on the running game because play-action is such a weapon for us. Those two touchdowns off boot-action were so beautifully executed. The line blocked outside zone, and the entire defensive front flowed that way. Cousins had forever to throw. It's important that we continue running the ball, even if we're struggling to gain yards.

It's gonna be a wild finish!

[VikingLord]

Need SF to beat GB and then Vikings control their own destiny in the NFCN. They'd bypass Seattle by beating on MNF and SF still has to play road games against Baltimore, New Orleans and Seattle. A good chance they lose a couple of those. Vikes just need to take care of business. If they beat Seattle, I think they win out.

Zimmer needs to figure out the pass coverage.

He does, but then again, it's not that the DBs are out of position as much as it is they're not making plays on the ball despite their position. Denver got away with a lot of passes that really had no business being thrown, much less completed. Of course, when a team is 3-6 and out of it this late in the season, who really cares if those balls end up picked. Denver certainly didn't. The lack of plays on the ball once it is in the air is concerning and it does need to get fixed, but at the same time I don't think it's as big a concern as it would be if teams had receivers running wide open. For the most part that isn't happening.

Pass coverage is also about pass rush pressure, and yesterday the Vikings defensive line looked like a group that needed a bye, while Denver's offensive line looked like a group that just had 2 weeks off.

As far as the way the season plays out, call me crazy, but I don't think the Packers are a lock to win any of their remaining games. Yeah, they've been winning, but if you look at the stats that team has way exceeded what a team with those statistics should expect. They could always keep doing that and exceed them all the way to the Superbowl I suppose, but just looking at them, they're not a great team. Plus, they have to go on the road a lot more to end the season, but in a lot of those games their opponents won't have anything on the line and can play with the same reckless abandon that Denver just played against the Vikings. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Packers revert towards the mean. Not to say the Vikings won't have to beat them in the rematch, because even if they don't have to, I hope they do, but I'm just not sold the the Packers are that great.

[S197]

This sounds weird, but I'm concerned with special teams.

Kicking game is solid. Bailey has really made a nice comeback, thanks in part to Colquitt, who does a great job holding. Yesterday he fielded a low snap on an extra point and got it in place smoothly. That was huge, as Denver could have tied the game with a FG if we had messed up that XP.

The problem for me is our return game and coverage. Bailey has about 75% touchbacks, which is good, but we've given up too many big-ish returns on kickoffs that don't result in a touchback. Denver's last drive was set up by a 42-yard return.

We also lead the NFL in special teams fumbles. Yesterday, we had two muffed punts and a disastrous fumbled kickoff return. Pair that with virtually no returns of significance in either the punt or kickoff return games, and it's not good.

Also, the dumb penalties. Eric Wilson yesterday cost us 3 very important points in the second half by jumping offsides, and for what? We had momentum, and we were getting the ball back. That's not the first time we've given an opponent a second chance on special teams.

Defensively, it's hard to put a finger on what's wrong. Statistically, Brandon Allen had a pretty horrible looking game. Less than 50% completions, a 61 QBR. But the stats lie in this case. He averaged only 6 yards per attempt, but 14 yards per completion. That's been the story this year. We've given up more big plays than I've ever seen a Zimmer-coached Vikings defense surrender. Gonna have to figure this out because Seattle and Green Bay can strike fast with downfield passing. I don't worry too much about the hapless Bears offense, and the Lions are pretty tame without Stafford. But Seattle and Green Bay can torch us if we don't fix this.

Offensively, I mostly love what we're doing. We've played most of the past five games without Adam Thielen, yet we've won four of them. I think Kirk Cousins had a real turning-point game yesterday. The Broncos did everything possible to stop Dalvin Cook, daring Cousins to beat them. And he did. That's big because in the past when Dalvin has been shut down, we've not been able to overcome it. It's important for this team to not totally give up on the running game because play-action is such a weapon for us. Those two touchdowns off boot-action were so beautifully executed. The line blocked outside zone, and the entire defensive front flowed that way. Cousins had forever to throw. It's important that we continue running the ball, even if we're struggling to gain yards.

It's gonna be a wild finish!

Special teams is definitely a concern. It was more noticeable seeing Colquitt kick live. Even his "decent" kicks were underwhelming. And now he's had multiple kicks short when the game was on the line.

Abdullah's fumble was odd, looking at the replay he had it well secured. He does have a penchant for this unfortunately.

[TSonn]

Cousins I want to see him get in touch with his inner Favre. Push the ball down field. Throw contested balls, we literally have 2 of the best WRs in contested catches and it's badly under utilized. Coaching also needs to let him do this. They need to realize that this is no longer a defense that can win them games with conservative playcalling on offense. We need to score points. If it means more turnovers, so be it. Thielen said it himself, you need to be able to keep defenses honest and take shots downfield. Look at the success of that in the 2nd half vs the check down fest of the 1st.

Yes - I think this is the issue. It's not a coincidence that the week after Cousins threw a game losing INT at GB (one could argue the defense spotting GB 21 in the first quarter was also the culprit) was one of the most conservative game plans I've seen since Joe Webb started at QB for us. It took a little bit of a media circus to get Zimmer to back out of his default conservative offense mode. It seems like he was going back to it in the first half against Denver too but luckily this time we pulled through in the 2nd half.

[TSonn]

Zimmer needs to figure out the pass coverage.

He does, but then again, it's not that the DBs are out of position as much as it is they're not making plays on the ball despite their position. Denver got away with a lot of passes that really had no business being thrown, much less completed. Of course, when a team is 3-6 and out of it this late in the season, who really cares if those balls end up picked. Denver certainly didn't. The lack of plays on the ball once it is in the air is concerning and it does need to get fixed, but at the same time I don't think it's as big a concern as it would be if teams had receivers running wide open. For the most part that isn't happening.

I think opposing teams know that Vikings DBs are either not taught to turn around quick enough to make a play on the ball in 1v1 situations or they are just naturally bad at it. So they're thinking the worst case scenario of throwing deep balls into 1v1 coverage is an incomplete pass instead of an INT which obviously leads to more 50/50 balls and us not winning them.

[CharVike]

8-3 is a good record at this point. I felt we caught some breaks and that we didn't take advantage of them. Facing backup QBs against the Bears and Chiefs was a break IMO. I realize they are professional players but they are backups for a reason. It will be hard for us to win the division unless the Packers lose a few and we win out. If playoffs is the goal then we are still active. You have to say it was good so far.

The reason is because you only have one starter.

I know that. But if the backup has some value you can trade him as the Pats did with Jimmy G. You get some capital for him. If you need to use him it's not a write off. That's why I wanted us to draft Drew Lock last year. If he showed some value we could have gotten something for him if we extend Cousins. Or we could have kept him and not have to extend Cousins. Or if Cousins got hurt we would have a guy that could play good. But you are correct there is only one starter. Typically facing a backup is an advantage. Not always of course. At one time Dallas had Morton and Stauback and they would bring the plays in. In effect they had two guys starting. Switching each play to bring the play in. A better example is our backup. I don't think we would be as good if he was playing. Thus an advantage for the team playing us. I seen us shut out the Packers when Rodgers didn't play and we won. I highly doubt we do that if he plays.

[Passepartout]

Well Vikings will get a week to rest. But really it could come down to the Vikings and Saints in the NFC Title Game. Just hope that the refs do not make the same mistake twice after that NFC Title fiasco!

[mansquatch]

It's gonna be a wild finish!

Special teams is definitely a concern. It was more noticeable seeing Colquitt kick live. Even his "decent" kicks were underwhelming. And now he's had multiple kicks short when the game was on the line.

Abdullah's fumble was odd, looking at the replay he had it well secured. He does have a penchant for this unfortunately.

I was surprised by Adbullah's fumble also. When you watch that play he even brings his second hand in to get more ball security before he is hit, a savvy vet move, yet it still comes out. No good reason for why, it was a weird one. I agree on the return issue in general though. Feels like we traded less next level return/coverage for a lot less kicking anxiety when Priefer left.

I'm not sure what is up with the seconday, but it has been a problem for three straight weeks, but for what seems like different reasons:
Against KC you had speed via Hill and one of the best offensive minds in the biz in Andy Reid that caused us issues. They also had that mistake the sprang Williams on that big run. I'll spot them the run, that is an outlier this year. But the pass defense wasn't great. Still that loss is as much on Colquitt as it was the secondary. 27 yard punt with the game on line is just unacceptable.

Against DAL we were selling out to stop the run and stuck with that game plan the whole game. I think the merits of this are probably somewhat debatable, but the fact they won is not, so hard to argue too much. That also was a case where we were facing arguably the best pass protecting OL in the NFL. So our pass rush was mitigated. Bad pass defense results, but maybe for different reasons. Covering for 5+ seconds isn't a successful strategy for any defense.

Against DEN it was really just mind boggling. Why in the 2nd half couldn't we get off the field? I get the fist half we were obviously in the tank mentally, but in the 2nd half we were rolling. Whats up with that?

Playing off the Denver game, we've had a few games this year where we've started really flat on Defense. Noticeably against GB. Not sure if this is game planning or what? I know Greenway used to comment that for the first 20 plays on defense it is really challenging since you do not know what to expect. That is probably some of it, but not all. First half D needs to better, it seems like it is feast or famine this year.

On penalties, couldn't agree more. That has been a HUGE issue this year, and one they need to clean up.

[Dmizzle0]

Well Vikings will get a week to rest. But really it could come down to the Vikings and Saints in the NFC Title Game. Just hope that the refs do not make the same mistake twice after that NFC Title fiasco!

OOOR we can have another Diggs, Sideline, Touchdown!

[VikeFanInEagleLand]

I'm least worried about Linval. Johnson has stepped up very well for him and honestly the run defense has looked improved. And that's against Zeke and Lindsay. Watts in limited play looked pretty good too, he seems to be climbing the depth chart.

Most worried about our pass defense. Particularly big plays. The Vikings rank 30th in QB rating on deep throws only behind the Bengals and Raiders. I think last year they were 7th and the year before top 3. That's big time regression and frankly unacceptable given the amount of draft capital invested.

I'm hoping the 2nd half adjustments Stefanski made can be part of the scheme going forward. More up tempo and different personnel packages, including more shotgun. What worries me is the scripted plays in 2 or the last 3 games have been very poor. Both KC and Denver the offense started very slow.

Cousins I want to see him get in touch with his inner Favre. Push the ball down field. Throw contested balls, we literally have 2 of the best WRs in contested catches and it's badly under utilized. Coaching also needs to let him do this. They need to realize that this is no longer a defense that can win them games with conservative playcalling on offense. We need to score points. If it means more turnovers, so be it. Thielen said it himself, you need to be able to keep defenses honest and take shots downfield. Look at the success of that in the 2nd half vs the check down fest of the 1st.

I want to see some more contested throws when necessary too. I'm not sure if this is the coaches or Cousins. There has to be an understanding that not every game are there wide open receivers downfield. Gotta trust the receivers to win those contested balls or knock them down.

There is also plenty to be concerned about with the OL and defense. They've had their moments of looking good, but not enough.

[808vikingsfan]

I'm least worried about Linval. Johnson has stepped up very well for him and honestly the run defense has looked improved. And that's against Zeke and Lindsay. Watts in limited play looked pretty good too, he seems to be climbing the depth chart.

Most worried about our pass defense. Particularly big plays. The Vikings rank 30th in QB rating on deep throws only behind the Bengals and Raiders. I think last year they were 7th and the year before top 3. That's big time regression and frankly unacceptable given the amount of draft capital invested.

I'm hoping the 2nd half adjustments Stefanski made can be part of the scheme going forward. More up tempo and different personnel packages, including more shotgun. What worries me is the scripted plays in 2 or the last 3 games have been very poor. Both KC and Denver the offense started very slow.

Cousins I want to see him get in touch with his inner Favre. Push the ball down field. Throw contested balls, we literally have 2 of the best WRs in contested catches and it's badly under utilized. Coaching also needs to let him do this. They need to realize that this is no longer a defense that can win them games with conservative playcalling on offense. We need to score points. If it means more turnovers, so be it. Thielen said it himself, you need to be able to keep defenses honest and take shots downfield. Look at the success of that in the 2nd half vs the check down fest of the 1st.

I want to see some more contested throws when necessary too. I'm not sure if this is the coaches or Cousins. There has to be an understanding that not every game are there wide open receivers downfield. Gotta trust the receivers to win those contested balls or knock them down.

There is also plenty to be concerned about with the OL and defense. They've had their moments of looking good, but not enough.

Agree. Watching the game last night, most throws from both QBs were contested throws where the WR had to make the play. The thing I notice with Cousins is he throws to open receivers. If he's not open, it'll be a checkdown or a safe overthrow. Not saying it's bad now since the team hasn't really lost a game because of it (well, you can argue the CHI game). But I think at some point, Cousin's is going to have to trust his receivers to make a play.

I do like where this team is going, especially the way they won the last two. I've said it even after the CHI loss. This is a good team. They compliment eachother well. It's the most complete team the VIkings have had in a long while. With the last two victories, I think they are starting to believe. Every win is important now but they have to win the rest of the divisional games.
As Kap stated, the special teams are a concern. They almost lost the game on Sunday giving up that long kick return. I like the depth of the DL, the OL has been playing well, as good of a unit as I can remember. I'm not too worried about the secondary yet. Injuries and lack of PT with the same unit is not helping but I think they'll get it together as the season goes on. Hope Smith is OK. Cousins, I still am concerned about his mental state and lack of pocket awareness but we'll see how it progresses. He does throw a pretty ball when he's on. At least he's not Rivers so it could be worse.

Cook has to be the MVP IMO. He (along with Diggs) really makes this team go.

[J. Kapp 11]

Here are some stats regarding Kirk Cousins that should make every Vikings fan stand up and take notice.

Kirk Cousins is having a career year, throwing 18 TDs to 3 INTs with a 112.0 passer rating (third-highest in NFL) and it's difficult to find a Next Gen Stats split where he doesn't rank highly. Cousins' passer rating on tight-window throws (90.0, first in the NFL), deep passes (134.2, second), when under pressure (95.4, second), and vs. the blitz (123.0, second) rank in the top two among qualifying QBs this season.

Source: NFL.com Next Gen Stats

To summarize his ranks:
• Tight-window throws: First
• Deep throws: Second
• Under pressure: Second
• vs. the Blitz: Second

Ridiculous. And that was BEFORE he lit up Denver's defense this past Sunday.

Any way you shape it, our QB is playing the kind of football most Vikings fans have only dreamed about.

[Dames]

Here are some stats regarding Kirk Cousins that should make every Vikings fan stand up and take notice.

Kirk Cousins is having a career year, throwing 18 TDs to 3 INTs with a 112.0 passer rating (third-highest in NFL) and it's difficult to find a Next Gen Stats split where he doesn't rank highly. Cousins' passer rating on tight-window throws (90.0, first in the NFL), deep passes (134.2, second), when under pressure (95.4, second), and vs. the blitz (123.0, second) rank in the top two among qualifying QBs this season.

Source: NFL.com Next Gen Stats

To summarize his ranks:
• Tight-window throws: First
• Deep throws: Second
• Under pressure: Second
• vs. the Blitz: Second

Ridiculous. And that was BEFORE he lit up Denver's defense this past Sunday.

Any way you shape it, our QB is playing the kind of football most Vikings fans have only dreamed about.

It's incredible, and really not many people are noticing. You have to give a lot of credit to Stefanski/Kubiak for creating a scheme that is excellent for him. Kirk has been executing it extremely well. I hope we can keep Stefanksi next year. He's going to be getting some interest for HC jobs, unless we completely fall apart.

Outside of those 2 early games, Kirk has been nearly lights out. The KC game was a blip during this stretch, but even that game was not horrible. I'm a believer this year. He will likely have another bad/not-so-good game down the stretch, but even the QBs with the greatest seasons ever have games like that. i.e. In 2009, Favre had a 3 games stretch in weeks 13-15 where his passer rating was below 80. He had more INTs than TDs. The Viking's went 1-2. Nobody remembers that, and it's still considered one of his best seasons ever. I don't think we'll see that bad of a run from Kirk this year, at least not 3 games in a row.

[mansquatch]

The offense this year was really a story of why September is an extension of pre-season in the NFL. We got stung twice with two early division games while our O was still figuring itself out. Since then we've been great. Cousins has been a big part of it also. I think an argument can be made that if we continue our offensive trajectory we might be one of, if not the most challenging offense to defend in the NFC, maybe the NFL, especially once we get Thielen back. We can run and pass with great efficacy.

Defense has some issues to sort out on Pass Defense. Zimmer acknowledged it directly in his last presser, he said quite bluntly "we need to get better at Pass Defense."

For our playoff aspirations, I think that is the biggest issue.