Chiefs Pre Game discussion

[Raptorman]

If you have to score 30 points per game to win on an average, you are doing something wrong. They remind me of the Rams last year. They can score a ton of points but can't stop anyone. Over the last 2 years, their defense gives up 25 points per game.(And in losses, it's 35.5 points per game) It's hard to keep winning doing that, as the Rams found out. The Chiefs are next.

BTW, the Dolphins split with the Patriots last year. Does that make the Phins good?

Yeah, splitting with the Pats in the regular season is remotely the same thing as taking the Pats to OT in the AFC championship game.

Their D was bad, their offense was darn near unstoppable.

Except the Chiefs lost to the Pats in week 6 of the regular season as well, 43-40. Chiefs defense is giving up an average of 396 yards a game the last two years. 31st in the league last year and so far 24th.

[CharVike]

Playing on the road is always difficult. I do think we can score on them and I expect more points than they had vs the Skins. My concern is our D vs the passing game. They need to at least slow them down. Plus we can't have TOs. It should be a close game.

[ERIK the PURPLE]

So it appears we are going up against an aggressive blitzing defense. Given our line, I would flood them with dump off passes out of the shotgun. I’d go 2 WR’s, one TE, and split Cook and Mattison left and right behind Cousins. If Thielen doesn’t play, I go 2 TE’s. Get the ball out in 2 seconds and watch the yards pile up.

[CharVike]

So it appears we are going up against an aggressive blitzing defense. Given our line, I would flood them with dump off passes out of the shotgun. I’d go 2 WR’s, one TE, and split Cook and Mattison left and right behind Cousins. If Thielen doesn’t play, I go 2 TE’s. Get the ball out in 2 seconds and watch the yards pile up.

I think they will run the ball big time. There D can't stop it. Plus it will eat the clock up and keep that O on the sideline. Passing should be limited. Maybe 20-25 attempts. Plus the running will limit the possible TOs. That's what I would do. Time will tell.

[Dames]

So it appears we are going up against an aggressive blitzing defense. Given our line, I would flood them with dump off passes out of the shotgun. I’d go 2 WR’s, one TE, and split Cook and Mattison left and right behind Cousins. If Thielen doesn’t play, I go 2 TE’s. Get the ball out in 2 seconds and watch the yards pile up.

I think they will run the ball big time. There D can't stop it. Plus it will eat the clock up and keep that O on the sideline. Passing should be limited. Maybe 20-25 attempts. Plus the running will limit the possible TOs. That's what I would do. Time will tell.

That's the key, we need to run it a lot, and use dump off and screens. Keeping the clock moving and their big play makers on the sideline. They have a lot of them.

Like VL said, if we fall behind early, I think we going to have a hard time keeping up. It's not that our O can't score, but the last thing we want is a shootout. That only leads to mistakes.

I believe we'll be okay, but we definitely can't do what we did against GB and expect to stay in it.

[StumpHunter]

It is looking more and more like Mahomes is going to play. Practiced yesterday.

I think we will need to win a shootout.

[cstelter]

This is a big one guys. Will it make or break the season? Probably not. It's important to keep pace with GB though. I was hoping the Chiefs could hold on last vs the Packers, but it didn't happen. I don't know that it has all that much impact on our playoff chances, although every win matters.

Two ways to the playoffs-- win the division or compete for wildcard. Keeping pace with GB till the penultimate week where we can potentially beat them at home is essential for any hopes of winning the division. However, just keeping pace may not be enough. If we were to both win out the next 6 games and then Vikings beat GB and win each win their final game, we'd be tied head-to-head, but would lose the division record tie breaker as our 2nd loss will have been to the bears while theirs will have been to the Eagles. So we really need to end up with a better record, not tied unless they happen to drop one to DET or CHI in the 2nd half.

So for the division, even if we even the division record, the next tie breaker is NFC conference and then common opponents. We have only 2 games without common opponents-- Seahawks/Atlanta for us and 49ers/Panthers for them, but those are both NFC teams which would go to the earlier tiebreaker should we somehow manage to even the divisional record.

So to even the divisional record we need to beet them week 16 and have them lose either week 15 or week 17. We also have to beat DET and CHI, or possibly just one if GB manages to lose their final 3 games of the season (unlikely I suppose).

So our only real hope for winning the division and possibly get a 1st round by would be for GB to lose 2 more games than we do down the stretch one of which preferably would be to us.

Assuming we lose the division, then the first tie breaker is NFC record where we already have 2 losses.

Seahawks lost to the Ravens so they currently have only 1 NFC loss so we currently don't own any tie breaker over them unless/until they lose another NFC game and we keep winning. Week after this vs the Eagles would be an ideal loss for them as it would even our NFC record and give us a leg up on common opponents (Seahawks don't play bears or GB so our losses there don't count against common opponents). So root for the Eagles next week.

LARams have 2 division losses and one more to the Bucs, so we're in the lead on the NFC tie breaker with them. They play bears and we play seahawks so beating the seahawks will be key for us in the NFC wins race as well as common opponents race with LARams. Not sure who else will come into the wildcard picture down the stretch but it is good we already own head-to-head tie breaker over PHI.

Our best strategy? Just keep winning.

[CharVike]

It is looking more and more like Mahomes is going to play. Practiced yesterday.

I think we will need to win a shootout.

We need to play some D and avoid a shootout. That's the last thing we want. That's there game. We need to play our game. This is were Zim needs to prove his value. Top O play some top D. We won't shut them down but if we allow close to a score per possession it will be a hard road.

[Dames]

It is looking more and more like Mahomes is going to play. Practiced yesterday.

I think we will need to win a shootout.

We need to play some D and avoid a shootout. That's the last thing we want. That's there game. We need to play our game. This is were Zim needs to prove his value. Top O play some top D. We won't shut them down but if we allow close to a score per possession it will be a hard road.

Agreed, because if it comes down to a shootout, even as good as Cousins has been lately, I frankly don't yet have the confidence he can keep up. I really want to be wrong about that, but I think a lot of our success has been because we are using him in the right way. Taking shots with good timing using play-action. I don't believe he is a shootout type QB, and I don't think our O is built for that either. Not to mean we are a bad O, just built very specifically. We can put up a lot of points with misdirection. I think in a classic shoot-out game, that element gets diminished some.

It may make for an entertaining game, but for my peace of mind, I'd rather it not happen that way. I'd rather we blow them out.

[Dames]

Our best strategy? Just keep winning.

Well, that about sums it up

We really need GB to falter some. Unfortunately, I'm not sure where that's going to happen. Yes, I think we can/will beat them at home, but I'm not sure we're going to get much help from the rest of the league before that.

I don't have much hope that the Panthers are going to come into GB and win.

I think the 49ers have a decent shot against them.

After that, it's the Giants, Redskins and then Bears (in GB). Ewww.

Then Vikings (we have to have this)

Then Lions to close out the season. I'm hoping for a Lion's revenge game, but honestly it probably won't happen.

So, the way it looks right now, unless the Packers stumble on those 3 "easy" games, it's going to be very difficult to pass them. That's assuming we continue to win also. It's a hill to climb for sure. I think a wild card is more likely.

[J. Kapp 11]

It is looking more and more like Mahomes is going to play. Practiced yesterday.

I think we will need to win a shootout.

Means nothing. He was limited in practice, which is the same as he was last week prior to the Green Bay game.

His practice yesterday basically consisted of taking snaps and handing the ball off. Tossed a few passes. There's video of it out there, which I've watched. He reportedly did not participate in any 11-on-11 work. Today could be different, but all the reports I'm seeing are that he's most likely to return Week 10 against Tennessee.

Nonetheless, the Vikings are preparing for both quarterbacks, looking at team tendencies based on who's under center.

[J. Kapp 11]

Our best strategy? Just keep winning.

Well, that about sums it up

We really need GB to falter some. Unfortunately, I'm not sure where that's going to happen. Yes, I think we can/will beat them at home, but I'm not sure we're going to get much help from the rest of the league before that.

I don't have much hope that the Panthers are going to come into GB and win.

I think the 49ers have a decent shot against them.

After that, it's the Giants, Redskins and then Bears (in GB). Ewww.

Then Vikings (we have to have this)

Then Lions to close out the season. I'm hoping for a Lion's revenge game, but honestly it probably won't happen.

So, the way it looks right now, unless the Packers stumble on those 3 "easy" games, it's going to be very difficult to pass them. That's assuming we continue to win also. It's a hill to climb for sure. I think a wild card is more likely.

We need to be at least two games better than Green Bay the rest of the way. It's the only way we win the division.

Let's win out and hope Green Bay loses to someone else, like the 49ers. But if they don't lose to S.F. ... could you imagine us being a 14-2 wild-card team? Could happen. Yikes!

[Dames]

Let's win out and hope Green Bay loses to someone else, like the 49ers. But if they don't lose to S.F. ... could you imagine us being a 14-2 wild-card team? Could happen. Yikes!

That would be both awesome and frustrating.

[VikingLord]

We need to be at least two games better than Green Bay the rest of the way. It's the only way we win the division.

Let's win out and hope Green Bay loses to someone else, like the 49ers. But if they don't lose to S.F. ... could you imagine us being a 14-2 wild-card team? Could happen. Yikes!

I remember one year when the Vikings started 6-0. I think Mike Tice was the head coach. They were 6-0 and heading into a game against a winless Giants team at home, and they ended up losing. It wasn't a fluke loss, either. They were soundly beaten.

That happened because the 6-0 record was more than a little deceiving. The team had benefited from several factors that went their way early, but they were nowhere near as good as that record indicated and, when they came back to earth, they came back hard.

Now I'm not saying the Packers are the same as that team, but there are similarities. The Packers got some significant help in some of their wins, including the games against the Vikings and Lions, plus they got to face a Mahomes-less KC team. They squeaked by the Bears to open the season, and took a home loss against an Eagles team that has been drubbed by other NFC opponents.

If you look at the league stats, you see more evidence of this. The Packer offense is middle-of-the-pack (no pun intended) overall, ranking 13th in yards per game, 8th in passing yards per game, 18th in rushing yards per game, and 7th in scoring. Not bad, but hardly great, either. Defensively, the Packers rank 22nd overall in yards per game, 19th against the pass, 24th against the run, but somehow 11th in scoring.

Do those stats indicate a team should be 7-1 at the midpoint of the season? I bet most people would say no, including most Packers fans, if they didn't know the team to which those stats belong.

I highly doubt the Packers finish this season with a single loss, or even with just 2 losses assuming the Vikings beat them in the rematch in Minnesota. More than likely, the law of averages is going to catch up to them at some point this season. They will be the ones who suffer at the hands of some questionable calls by the refs in a game or two that cost them points. They will be the ones who watch an opponent string together a few big plays that lead to a key score or scores. More than likely, they'll be the ones who come up short or unlucky or both on the injury front in a key matchup. It's not certain any of that will happen, but its far more likely than their hot streak continuing.

If the Packers were statistically aligned with their record, I'd buy the talk about a 14-2 record for the Vikings turning them into a wildcard. Suffice it to say, if the Vikings do somehow manage to finish this season 14-2, I predict they'll be the #1 seed in the NFC.

[Raptorman]

We need to be at least two games better than Green Bay the rest of the way. It's the only way we win the division.

Let's win out and hope Green Bay loses to someone else, like the 49ers. But if they don't lose to S.F. ... could you imagine us being a 14-2 wild-card team? Could happen. Yikes!

I remember one year when the Vikings started 6-0. I think Mike Tice was the head coach. They were 6-0 and heading into a game against a winless Giants team at home, and they ended up losing. It wasn't a fluke loss, either. They were soundly beaten.

That happened because the 6-0 record was more than a little deceiving. The team had benefited from several factors that went their way early, but they were nowhere near as good as that record indicated and, when they came back to earth, they came back hard.

Now I'm not saying the Packers are the same as that team, but there are similarities. The Packers got some significant help in some of their wins, including the games against the Vikings and Lions, plus they got to face a Mahomes-less KC team. They squeaked by the Bears to open the season, and took a home loss against an Eagles team that has been drubbed by other NFC opponents.

If you look at the league stats, you see more evidence of this. The Packer offense is middle-of-the-pack (no pun intended) overall, ranking 13th in yards per game, 8th in passing yards per game, 18th in rushing yards per game, and 7th in scoring. Not bad, but hardly great, either. Defensively, the Packers rank 22nd overall in yards per game, 19th against the pass, 24th against the run, but somehow 11th in scoring.

Do those stats indicate a team should be 7-1 at the midpoint of the season? I bet most people would say no, including most Packers fans, if they didn't know the team to which those stats belong.

I highly doubt the Packers finish this season with a single loss, or even with just 2 losses assuming the Vikings beat them in the rematch in Minnesota. More than likely, the law of averages is going to catch up to them at some point this season. They will be the ones who suffer at the hands of some questionable calls by the refs in a game or two that cost them points. They will be the ones who watch an opponent string together a few big plays that lead to a key score or scores. More than likely, they'll be the ones who come up short or unlucky or both on the injury front in a key matchup. It's not certain any of that will happen, but its far more likely than their hot streak continuing.

If the Packers were statistically aligned with their record, I'd buy the talk about a 14-2 record for the Vikings turning them into a wildcard. Suffice it to say, if the Vikings do somehow manage to finish this season 14-2, I predict they'll be the #1 seed in the NFC.

If the Packers were statistically aligned with their record, they would be at most a 10-6 team by the end of the year.