Bears/Vikings Coaches Tape

[Mothman]

I don't know why the first set of pics showed up small. You can zoom in on them a little if you click on the photo and go to the source page.

[psjordan]

Just shoot me with pic #7.

More than 30 starts in the NFL and our QB does not see this unfolding?

My summation of Ponder remains justified, he's just simply not going to get there if he's not there now. Sigh.

And BTW I think Wright is only open if he breaks the route off and if he and the QB are on the same page.

Yes, I chuckled when I typed that.

[Funkytown]

Ouch, Ponder. Ouch.

He might just need his eyes checked. Kinda like Troy Williamson. It can be fixed, right?

[Mothman]

Just shoot me with pic #7.

More than 30 starts in the NFL and our QB does not see this unfolding?

I think he probably sees it. In fact, he appears to be looking right down the middle of the field at Carlson. I don't see how he could miss it so to me, the question is why didn't he throw it Carlson? I can imagine several answers to that question, from fear to ignorance to distrust in Carlson or lack of trust in himself but I have no idea which answer would be correct. I'd love to hear Ponder's explanation for his choice. I can't imagine an answer that would satisfy his coaches. That pass should have been thrown right down the middle for a nice big gain.

For what it's worth, Wright never looks wide open to me either.

[mondry]

One thing i've been thinking about is what is up with our TE's? We supposedly have a probowler in Kyle Rudolph and yet many many games he's a non factor. Even Shiancoe who I feel was probably less physically gifted and less talented made more of an impact. Perhaps this play is an example of why? Does Ponder just not see the intermediate middle of the field? Is it an area he's scared to throw in? Yes you gotta get it over the line backer watching Peterson and keep it low enough to not sail over the middle but that looks about as routine a throw as possible on the most standard of routes for a TE to make, the seam route.

Maybe he doesn't trust Carlson AT ALL? If that's Rudolph maybe he makes the throw? That's still no excuse and doesn't seem likely because it doesn't matter when the guy is wide open and it's not like Rudolph is lighting it up when he's in there.

I can't even say "hey, maybe the coaches got into his head and he's just playing it safe" because he has decent protection and as I said that's about as routine as it gets. It's an 18 yard throw to a guy wide open with tons of breathing room. That's suppose to be your "safety blanket" type throw / play / TE and he's scared to make that throw... very discouraging.

[Mothman]

One thing i've been thinking about is what is up with our TE's? We supposedly have a probowler in Kyle Rudolph and yet many many games he's a non factor. Even Shiancoe who I feel was probably less physically gifted and less talented made more of an impact. Perhaps this play is an example of why? Does Ponder just not see the intermediate middle of the field? Is it an area he's scared to throw in? Yes you gotta get it over the line backer watching Peterson and keep it low enough to not sail over the middle but that looks about as routine a throw as possible on the most standard of routes for a TE to make, the seam route.

Maybe he doesn't trust Carlson AT ALL? If that's Rudolph maybe he makes the throw? That's still no excuse and doesn't seem likely because it doesn't matter when the guy is wide open and it's not like Rudolph is lighting it up when he's in there.

I can't even say "hey, maybe the coaches got into his head and he's just playing it safe" because he has decent protection and as I said that's about as routine as it gets. It's an 18 yard throw to a guy wide open with tons of breathing room. That's suppose to be your "safety blanket" type throw / play / TE and he's scared to make that throw... very discouraging.

It's discouraging but I have a hard time believing he didn't throw it because he was scared. We've seen him make riskier and/or more difficult throws all over the field. Why should this throw scare him? I don't know how to explain it but that explanation just doesn't make sense to me.

[PacificNorseWest]

An NFL quarterback should be able to get that ball to Carlson, but Wright on a back shoulder pass can be thrown open for a big completion with much less risk then throwing in the middle of the field between two defenders.

Just look at the hips of the CB on Wright...No way he is able to defend the back shoulder pass right there.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Wow. I just cant believe Cassel could be any worse. Its kinda like when McNabb was throwing bounce passes, people wondered if Ponder could be any worse starting. At least he was given a chance.

[Mothman]

An NFL quarterback should be able to get that ball to Carlson, but Wright on a back shoulder pass can be thrown open for a big completion with much less risk then throwing in the middle of the field between two defenders.

Just look at the hips of the CB on Wright...No way he is able to defend the back shoulder pass right there.

Good point.

[mondry]

It's discouraging but I have a hard time believing he didn't throw it because he was scared. We've seen him make riskier and/or more difficult throws all over the field. Why should this throw scare him? I don't know how to explain it but that explanation just doesn't make sense to me.

Then why not make that throw? There just isn't really anything else. If it was just his trust in Carlson then we'd see rudolph making that play which at 5 catches for 69 yards in 2 games isn't really what I'd expect out of a "pro bowl TE."

Fact is, the seam route to shiancoe that was practically the bread and better from 2008-2010 is non existent now! Well... at least it getting completed.

[Mothman]

Then why not make that throw? There just isn't really anything else.

I don't know. I just don't think scared is the right word for it. Perhaps hesitant or reluctant... but scared? Of what? If he's afraid to make that throw why would he be willing to make a throw like the pass he made to Jennings late in the 4th quarter where he threaded the proverbial needle between defenders or a pass like the long TD to Rudolph? Why would he throw seam routes to other players? Why the two long completions to Simpson in week 1? It just doesn't make sense to me. I question his judgment on the play and I don't understand his reluctance but fear seems an unlikely explanation. YMMV.

Jim

[The Breeze]

An NFL quarterback should be able to get that ball to Carlson, but Wright on a back shoulder pass can be thrown open for a big completion with much less risk then throwing in the middle of the field between two defenders.

Just look at the hips of the CB on Wright...No way he is able to defend the back shoulder pass right there.

I agree with this. I don't think Ponder has that kind of chemistry with his WRs yet, or the kind of vision in the moment to make that decision. He could certainly watch tape of the play and understand how Wright is open....but it doesn't appear to me that the game has slowed down enough for him to grok that kind of stuff under duress.
I think they are making strides there based on the 2nd half in Chicago. I'm torn between throwing picks and just airing it out. At this point i'd rather see him pull the trigger and fail than not try at all....as long as the attempt is not just a dumb telegraphed throw.

[mondry]

I don't know. I just don't think scared is the right word for it. Perhaps hesitant or reluctant... but scared? Of what? If he's afraid to make that throw why would he be willing to make a throw like the pass he made to Jennings late in the 4th quarter where he threaded the proverbial needle between defenders or a pass like the long TD to Rudolph? Why would he throw seam routes to other players? Why the two long completions to Simpson in week 1? It just doesn't make sense to me. I question his judgment on the play and I don't understand his reluctance but fear seems an unlikely explanation. YMMV.

Jim

Kinda takes it back to one of the other points we've discussed about getting Ponder involved and having more emphasis on the passing game. This was a little later in the 3rd quarter so it wasn't necessarily do our die time yet, at that point maybe he was still in "it's close, let's not make the big mistake to kill us" mentality.

My guess is it was just a calculated decision to play it uber safe. A wide open seam route seems safe to me but who knows, maybe in practice Carlson's run that route and accidentally tipped the ball up for a pick leaving a bad taste for Ponder. Either way it was a missed opportunity and I'm guessing it's not the first.

[Mothman]

Kinda takes it back to one of the other points we've discussed about getting Ponder involved and having more emphasis on the passing game. This was a little later in the 3rd quarter so it wasn't necessarily do our die time yet, at that point maybe he was still in "it's close, let's not make the big mistake to kill us" mentality.

That's possible. It definitely takes us back to that earlier discussion.

My guess is it was just a calculated decision to play it uber safe. A wide open seam route seems safe to me but who knows, maybe in practice Carlson's run that route and accidentally tipped the ball up for a pick leaving a bad taste for Ponder.

LOL! I had the same thought.

Either way it was a missed opportunity and I'm guessing it's not the first.

No need to guess... it's not the first and even if Ponder had a bad experience throwing that pass to Carlson in practice or didn't like what he saw over the middle for some inexplicable reason, that doesn't excuse never looking Wright's way.

I wonder if the "get the ball out of your hand" clock in his head is working too fast.

My guess is you're right and for some reason, he chose to play it very safe on this play. Ironically, even "safe" didn't work out.

[VikingLord]

Thanks for posting those shots Jim. It does help to see things unfold.

With that said:

- Look at the pre-snap bunching. Pre-snap, Ponder's center field of vision is full of black jerseys. Other than the safeties being backed off (why I have no idea), the rest of the Bear defense is within 5 yards of the LOS.
- No shift in the defense with Carlson's motion - outside may be man, but inside it will be zone.
- For both of the CBs, their eyes never leave Ponder and they are locked man-on-man. If JS was Ponder's primary on the play, that fact alone should have caused him to go to his 2nd read.
- In the shot where Ponder is looking at Carlson, it appears for all and intents and purposes he *did* go to his second read. He just didn't pull the trigger, maybe because he felt #58 could make a play on that pass.
- Ponder gets great protection on this play. He has time to set and scan the field and there isn't a Bear defender near him.
- Finally, it almost seems the routes on this play are designed to open the pass to the TE, doesn't it? Everyone starts tight, and then the two WR's flare out and up the field, taking the CBs and safeties with them. #58 is forced to focus on AD. Carlson has settled very nicely into open space in the middle of the field. In fact, this play winds up a lot like the other play against the Lions where the Vikes have what appears to be a wide open receiver in the middle of the field for a nice mid-range completion.
- Ponder should be able to see that not only is JS covered, but he's covered by a CB who is actually watching Ponder the whole play. There is no way that ball should have come out in that situation. He may as well have been throwing it to Jennings.