Vikings Message Board.Com

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:43 am**

lol, yea freeman is much better...just check the stats buddy. not saying stafford didnt play better than ponder, thats obvious. but just saying it was not as bad as everyone makes it out to be.

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:02 pm**

Arguing about whether Ponder or Gabbert is worse? Kind of a pointless exercise, isn't it?

THEY BOTH STINK. Neither belongs in the NFL.

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:04 pm**

Looking at the stats from yesterday, Freeman doesn't look too much better than Ponder. If it were not for the INTs they would probably almost have close to same passing rating. Just like with Ponder if he Freeman throws a 30 yard or more pass, its most likely gonna be incomplete or picked off. He may have a better arm than Ponder but his accuracy sucks

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:07 pm**

Ready for cassell now. Ponder is not any better than Tjack

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:20 pm**

VikingsFanInCA wrote:Over 3 seasons of work, I can maybe think of 1 or MAYBE 2 instances of option A occurring.

I can think of DOZENS (plural) of instances of option B or C occurring.

When B+C >= A, over a 3 season sample, it's time to go.

Dude, I'm as disgusted with the lack of progress in all the hotspots that are contested in this forum as anyone. Rolling left, firing off balance to Rudolf (that was an INT wasn't it?) was specifically mentioned as a problem.

But come on-- if you're going to take a spin like above at least avoid hyperbole and the like, you probably don't need it..

Problems I see with your analysis:

Ponder has played in exactly 28 games. A '3 season sample' ought to include 48 games. Ponder has less than 60% of that count. State that 'after 28 games and 2 proper offseasons'... it's accurate, and really doesn't diminish the point you're making.

You can think of maybe 2 instances of A occurring and 24+ instances of B or C occurring and you've thrown out, what, 2 or maybe 3 games when the entire team has fallen apart? Now I don't recall all the specifics, but simply from looking at his stats (below) I can pull out these games where it appears as though the defense fell apart (no matter how poor your QB is playing if he only has 1 or 2 INT's in the game, there is *no* excuse for defense giving up 30+ points. These games cannot fall into either A, B, or C. I'm sure there are another 5 or more other games where most would conclude it was a team loss and not specific to Ponder if one were to go back and recall the details.

Code: Select all

                                                                              Passing                                                     Rushing                 Receiving               Scoring
Rk    Year  G#    Date        Age         Tm          Opp   Result      GS    Cmp   Att   Cmp%        Yds   TD    Int   Rate  Y/A   AY/A  Att   Yds   Y/A   TD    Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD    TD    Pts
1     2011  6     10/16/2011  23-233      MIN   @     CHI   L 10-39           9     17    52.94%      99    0     0     70.5  5.82  5.82  1     8     8     0     0     0           0     0     0
4     2011  9     11/14/2011  23-262      MIN   @     GNB   L 7-45      *     16    34    47.06%      190   0     1     52.3  5.59  4.26  2     17    8.5   0     0     0           0     0     0
9     2011  14    12/18/2011  23-296      MIN         NOR   L 20-42     *     14    31    45.16%      120   2     1     63.9  3.87  3.71  3     34    11.33 0     0     0           0     0     0

                                                                              Passing                                                     Rushing                 Receiving               Scoring     
Rk    Year  G#    Date        Age         Tm          Opp   Result      GS    Cmp   Att   Cmp%        Yds   TD    Int   Rate  Y/A   AY/A  Att   Yds   Y/A   TD    Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD    TD    Pts
17    2012  6     10/14/2012  24-232      MIN   @     WAS   L 26-38     *     35    52    67.31%      352   2     2     83.2  6.77  5.81  4     13    3.25  0     0     0           0     0     0
19    2012  8     10/25/2012  24-243      MIN         TAM   L 17-36     *     19    35    54.29%      251   1     1     74.8  7.17  6.46  4     12    3     0     0     0           0     0     0

[/size]

So that's 5 games where the team fell apart, and if we take 1 game as in A, at best you've got 22 games that fall into B and C. I'm sure many disagree with other of your assessments, but on the surface, using the word 'DOZENS' (which incidentally genrally implies more than just 2 dozen) is pure hyperbole and honestly makes my eyes glaze over.

You have a strong point-- no point resorting to over stating your case...

His first 2 years of stats for your info:

Code: Select all

                                                                              Passing                                                     Rushing                 Receiving               Scoring
Rk    Year  G#    Date        Age         Tm          Opp   Result      GS    Cmp   Att   Cmp%        Yds   TD    Int   Rate  Y/A   AY/A  Att   Yds   Y/A   TD    Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD    TD    Pts
1     2011  6     10/16/2011  23-233      MIN   @     CHI   L 10-39           9     17    52.94%      99    0     0     70.5  5.82  5.82  1     8     8     0     0     0           0     0     0
2     2011  7     10/23/2011  23-240      MIN         GNB   L 27-33     *     13    32    40.63%      219   2     2     59.2  6.84  5.28  4     31    7.75  0     0     0           0     0     0
3     2011  8     10/30/2011  23-247      MIN   @     CAR   W 24-21     *     18    28    64.29%      236   1     0     102.7 8.43  9.14  4     4     1     0     0     0           0     0     0
4     2011  9     11/14/2011  23-262      MIN   @     GNB   L 7-45      *     16    34    47.06%      190   0     1     52.3  5.59  4.26  2     17    8.5   0     0     0           0     0     0
5     2011  10    11/20/2011  23-268      MIN         OAK   L 21-27     *     19    33    57.58%      211   2     3     59    6.39  3.52  5     71    14.2  0     0     0           0     0     0
6     2011  11    11/27/2011  23-275      MIN   @     ATL   L 14-24     *     17    25    68.00%      186   1     0     103.1 7.44  8.24  2     9     4.5   0     0     0           0     0     0
7     2011  12    12/4/2011   23-282      MIN         DEN   L 32-35     *     29    47    61.70%      381   3     2     90.8  8.11  7.47  1     12    12    0     0     0           0     0     0
8     2011  13    12/11/2011  23-289      MIN   @     DET   L 28-34     *     11    21    52.38%      115   2     3     60.7  5.48  0.95  2     13    6.5   0     0     0           0     0     0
9     2011  14    12/18/2011  23-296      MIN         NOR   L 20-42     *     14    31    45.16%      120   2     1     63.9  3.87  3.71  3     34    11.33 0     0     0           0     0     0
10    2011  15    12/24/2011  23-302      MIN   @     WAS   W 33-26     *     8     13    61.54%      68    0     0     75.2  5.23  5.23  4     20    5     0     0     0           0     0     0
11    2011  16    1/1/2012    23-310      MIN         CHI   L 13-17     *     4     10    40.00%      28    0     1     8.3   2.8   -1.7  0     0           0     0     0           0     0     0

                                                                              Passing                                                     Rushing                 Receiving               Scoring     
Rk    Year  G#    Date        Age         Tm          Opp   Result      GS    Cmp   Att   Cmp%        Yds   TD    Int   Rate  Y/A   AY/A  Att   Yds   Y/A   TD    Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD    TD    Pts
12    2012  1     9/9/2012    24-197      MIN         JAX   W 26-23     *     20    27    74.07%      270   0     0     105.5 10    10    1     1     1     0     0     0           0     0     0
13    2012  2     9/16/2012   24-204      MIN   @     IND   L 20-23     *     27    35    77.14%      245   2     0     114.6 7     8.14  3     7     2.33  0     0     0           0     0     0
14    2012  3     9/23/2012   24-211      MIN         SFO   W 24-13     *     21    35    60.00%      198   2     0     94.7  5.66  6.8   7     33    4.71  1     0     0           0     1     6
15    2012  4     9/30/2012   24-218      MIN   @     DET   W 20-13     *     16    26    61.54%      111   0     0     71.2  4.27  4.27  1     5     5     0     0     0           0     0     0
16    2012  5     10/7/2012   24-225      MIN         TEN   W 30-7      *     25    35    71.43%      258   2     2     87.6  7.37  5.94  3     31    10.33 0     0     0           0     0     0
17    2012  6     10/14/2012  24-232      MIN   @     WAS   L 26-38     *     35    52    67.31%      352   2     2     83.2  6.77  5.81  4     13    3.25  0     0     0           0     0     0
18    2012  7     10/21/2012  24-239      MIN         ARI   W 21-14     *     8     17    47.06%      58    1     2     35.5  3.41  -0.71 1     2     2     0     0     0           0     0     0
19    2012  8     10/25/2012  24-243      MIN         TAM   L 17-36     *     19    35    54.29%      251   1     1     74.8  7.17  6.46  4     12    3     0     0     0           0     0     0
20    2012  9     11/4/2012   24-253      MIN   @     SEA   L 20-30     *     11    22    50.00%      63    0     1     37.3  2.86  0.82  5     23    4.6   0     0     0           0     0     0
21    2012  10    11/11/2012  24-260      MIN         DET   W 34-24     *     24    32    75.00%      221   2     0     114.2 6.91  8.16  6     22    3.67  0     1     -15   -15   0     0     0
22    2012  11    11/25/2012  24-274      MIN   @     CHI   L 10-28     *     22    43    51.16%      159   1     1     58.2  3.7   3.12  2     6     3     0     0     0           0     0     0
23    2012  12    12/2/2012   24-281      MIN   @     GNB   L 14-23     *     12    25    48.00%      119   1     2     41.9  4.76  1.96  6     28    4.67  0     0     0           0     0     0
24    2012  13    12/9/2012   24-288      MIN         CHI   W 21-14     *     11    17    64.71%      91    0     1     53.8  5.35  2.71  4     0     0     0     0     0           0     0     0
25    2012  14    12/16/2012  24-295      MIN   @     STL   W 36-22     *     17    24    70.83%      131   0     0     83.9  5.46  5.46  4     6     1.5   1     0     0           0     1     6
26    2012  15    12/23/2012  24-302      MIN   @     HOU   W 23-6      *     16    30    53.33%      174   1     0     81.8  5.8   6.47  7     48    6.86  0     0     0           0     0     0
27    2012  16    12/30/2012  24-309      MIN         GNB   W 37-34     *     16    28    57.14%      234   3     0     120.2 8.36  10.5  2     16    8     0     0     0           0     0     0

[/size]

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:18 pm**

Nice Post Craig. One item I found interesting was that Ponder has played (according to Passer Rating) several games worse than this one. Passer Rating<63.1 resulted in losses in all but one game (Last years Bears game in Minnesota where he posted a 53.8 rating and we still won. Don't know that it's anything significant other than the fact that I was a little surprised to find any wins when his passer rating was that low.

As an aside, I'll arbitrarily call games where he had passer ratings 90 or above as Good, 81-90 above average, 71-80 Average, Below 71 = poor

Good Games = 8
Above Average = 4
Average = 3
Poor=12 (add in yesterday's game to get to 13).

He's (big surprise to everyone

) inconsistent over his career. Last year, however, he would have posted 5 good games (of his eight), 4 "above average" games (all of them), 2 average games (of his 3), and 5 poor games (of his 12). He clearly was improving last year. To make a percentage comparison, he would have the following stats for his ratio of poor games:

2011 - 7 games out of 11 (63%)
2012 - 5 games out of 16 (31%)
2013 - 1 game out of 1 (100%)

Ponder will need to turn in performances of "average" or better for the next 3 games in order to show improvement (at least in terms of poor games) from last year. He's not off to a good start...

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:38 pm**

JEC334 wrote:This is an average Ponder game believe it or not. Like usually, today he completes around 60% if passes. Averaged around 8 yard passes. I think the TD-INTS are what probably gave him a 63.1. See last year he had Percy Harvin to make him look good with the YAC. He was getting atleast 11 extra yards after every catch. Making Ponder's 10 yard throws to 20 yard plays. This is why we need Patterson in the game if we're going to do any damage on offense. Im not saying he is the next Harvin but im sure Patterson can collect some good YAC himself.

Actually, Ponder's 8.4 YPA from yesterday is way, way more than his career average of 6.3, and it would have ranked 4th in the NFL last year.

Yards per attempt is the only reason his QBR from yesterday was north of 20.

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 8:15 pm**

Well here's the thing folks. You have 3 or more interceptions chances are you are not going to win the game. Payton Manning, Dree Brees and Tom Brady have a combined 38 games were they threw 3 or more interceptions. Out of those 38 games, they only won 3. So, if your QB throws 3 interceptions, expect to lose.

Posted: **Mon Sep 09, 2013 8:36 pm**

Just Me wrote:Nice Post Craig. One item I found interesting was that Ponder has played (according to Passer Rating) several games worse than this one. Passer Rating<63.1 resulted in losses in all but one game (Last years Bears game in Minnesota where he posted a 53.8 rating and we still won. Don't know that it's anything significant other than the fact that I was a little surprised to find any wins when his passer rating was that low.

As an aside, I'll arbitrarily call games where he had passer ratings 90 or above as Good, 81-90 above average, 71-80 Average, Below 71 = poor

Good Games = 8
Above Average = 4
Average = 3
Poor=12 (add in yesterday's game to get to 13).

He's (big surprise to everyone ) inconsistent over his career. Last year, however, he would have posted 5 good games (of his eight), 4 "above average" games (all of them), 2 average games (of his 3), and 5 poor games (of his 12). He clearly was improving last year. To make a percentage comparison, he would have the following stats for his ratio of poor games:

2011 - 7 games out of 11 (63%)
2012 - 5 games out of 16 (31%)
2013 - 1 game out of 1 (100%)

Ponder will need to turn in performances of "average" or better for the next 3 games in order to show improvement (at least in terms of poor games) from last year. He's not off to a good start...

Thanks for looking into that. It was an interesting analysis. And it's always possible Ponder ends up with only 4 bad games at the end of the season...

Posted: **Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:41 am**

Purplemania wrote: Two quarterbacks that were undeservingly reached for mightily in the draft because the draft class lacked quaterbacks. The scary part was there were crazy news about the Vikings wanting Gabbert badly too

Sad thing is there were many fans who wanted Kaepernik or Dalton.

Posted: **Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:53 pm**

For what it's worth, here are Ponders ranks after week 1.

rank category stat (league average)
30th in rating with 63.1 (91.4) - only above Weeden (48.4) and Gabbert (30.

24th in completions with 18 (23.3)
27th in attempts with 28 (36.7)
17th in percent with 64.29 (63.35)
21st in yards with 236 (271.1)
22nd in TD's with 1 (2.0)
22nd in TD% with 3.57 (5.36)
32nd in INT's with 3 (1.1)
32nd in INT% with 10.71 (2.89)
8th in YPA with 8.43 (7.38)
9th in YPC with 13.11 (11.64)

Posted: **Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:43 am**

I'd hate to see those numbers if Simpson hadn't made that crazy catch.

Posted: **Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:28 am**

Eli wrote:I'd hate to see those numbers if Simpson hadn't made that crazy catch.

I wonder what they would be if Simpson had caught the slant route instead of contributing to the interception?

(We can "what if" until the sun goes down.) His performance should be taken for what it was: bad. I don't know that I'd have thought it any worse just because Simpson might have failed to make a great catch on an overthrown ball.

Posted: **Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:34 am**

Purplemania wrote: Two quarterbacks that were undeservingly reached for mightily in the draft because the draft class lacked quaterbacks. The scary part was there were crazy news about the Vikings wanting Gabbert badly too

I watched NFL Net non-stop leading up to that draft and Gabbert was pretty much the consensus as the top QB in that draft. I was hoping the Vikes could somehow get him but knew he'd never fall to them. Talk about a huge bust. I mean EVERYBODY thought he was going to be good.

It just shows to go ya that predicting success for a QB is a tough thing even for the experts. Look at Wilson and Kap now. Everybody had a shot at them

. Nobody saw them as immediate stars in the NFL.

How long are we going to keep hearing it? Ponder HAS to play better, Ponder HAS to play better! But guess what; HE WON'T!!! He'll do the same things again Sunday because that's just who he is. He just can NOT accurately throw the ball when he's under any kind of pressure. Maybe it's the number 7. He's like T-Jack. The most basic function of playing QB - throwing the ball TO the receiver - is a challenge for him. He just misses badly on far too many passes. He'd make Jerry Rice look ordinary. No receiver can catch what he can't reach.

I don't know what happened to him in that Green Bay game to finish last season. He was actually pretty good that day in a huge game. But, it really has turned out to be a bad thing because it caused the braintrust to think they would be in good shape committing to him as the starter this season. And it's just going to be more of the same. You just have to have a good QB to go anywhere in this league. So again, the Vikings will go nowhere.

Posted: **Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:10 am**

His rating is low because of the three interceptions. Just for the heck of it lets take a look at what happens if you take the first two out. Just a what if.

So you take those first two ints. out his rating is 87.7.

Now if Simpson catches that ball for 5 yards, and nothing else changes his rating is 76.6.

And if Simpson catches the first one and the second one sails out of bounds. 91.5.

Just shows you how much an interception makes on the rating. Interesting to note that Tom Brady had a QB rating of 71.0 last night against the Jets.

Vikings Message Board.Com

63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1

Re: 63.1