Vikings Final Four Wins analysis (Ponder)

[mansquatch]

As much as the yardage woes get harped on by everyone, national media included, I think people way under appreciate his 12 picks. Especially when you consider that the majority of those INT were in the slump period where for about 3-4 games he was putting up 2 per game.

His yardage needs to be better for the offense to improve, there is no doubt. But I for one do not want to see that come at the cost of ball security.

[Mothman]

As much as the yardage woes get harped on by everyone, national media included, I think people way under appreciate his 12 picks. Especially when you consider that the majority of those INT were in the slump period where for about 3-4 games he was putting up 2 per game.

His yardage needs to be better for the offense to improve, there is no doubt. But I for one do not want to see that come at the cost of ball security.

I think improved performance at receiver and TE will be a huge key to improving the yardage totals but you're right that the relatively low number of INTs is a bit under-appreciated. His INT % is pretty good too. Of course, he threw a lot of high percentage passes so that has to factor into the equation.

I keep coming back to this but in the end, it's all about winning and if they do that, the yardage totals, types of passes, etc. don't matter.

[mondry]

Thanks for the kind words guys, it was a long off season (as they always are) and I got tired of talking about Ponder back then so I took a break from the board. A month or two goes by, and after attending the first preseason game at the dome, was a bit excited to talk about Floyd, Patterson, Burton, heck even Matt cassel and yet half the threads here, regardless of what the topic was originally about devolve into Ponder bashing. Some I get, some I can see justified, but a lot are also out right fabricated lies. Heck one poster even thought he eats his sunflower seeds on the side line in an unacceptable manner!

Another interesting thing in this analysis is that we have a lot of ways to score points and be effective. We are a lot closer to being a complete team for example than say the Green Bay Packers. Sure they arguably have the best QB and some solid wide receivers but their O-line looks like it will struggle again, their run game remains to be seen if there is any improvement there, and the defense has been degrading for a while. We on the other hand look much more like the 49ers and Ravens and last I check, those two were in the superbowl. Not Greenbay, not NO, not Det.

As allday1991 said here, "seems like the defense and walsh did most of the work." which is interesting, considering Peterson ran for 651 yards in those 4 games and I thought Ponder did a good job of moving the chains. It just goes to show you that every facet of the game was playing at a good level during this win streak and that is what has me excited about this team. When Adrian didn't tear it up, the defense scored points and / or shut the other team down. When the offense couldn't get TD's walsh nailed field goals and when you can reliably do that from 50+ that's a HUGE weapon. When the defense couldn't stop greenbay, Peterson and Ponder did work.

A lot of guys are down on Ponder because they want drew brees #'s and I think the important thing about this analysis is that with this team, and within our strategy, something has gone horribly wrong if Ponder NEEDS to do that for us to win. A good example might be week 16 against green bay, Ponder didn't throw for 400 yards but late in the game, we were winning and when we needed him to be clutch he was clutch.

All in all Ponder is not that far off from Joe Flacco numbers and I think seeing if he progresses more towards what Flacco did is much more important than if he can challenge drew brees and Staffard for the passing title and for your information, he would need 4 more passing TD's, 2 less ints, and about 800 yards to match Flacco but I'd settle for the Td's, less int's, and say 500 yards. Adrian out rushed Ray Rice by 954 (2097 vs 1143) yards so I think he makes up for that easily.

[Mothman]

However I see this very much as Costanza leaving the room after telling a funny joke, as that was one game versus several bad ones earlier in the year. And while I have suspended my doctrine to get rid of Ponder I am not ready to put faith in him yet that he will be the "good" version of Ponder from here on out. And I gotta tell ya, throwing a pick six on his second pass of the 1st preseason game did not make me feel better at all.

I think you unintentionally typed "pick six" when you meant pick. An INT is never encouraging but as the announcers pointed out during the game, it's not even clear that it was Ponder's fault. It was a timing route and Simpson may have been a little too slow getting out of his break.

The Costanza "leave 'em laughing" comparison is hilarious and oddly appropriate. Well done.

[The Breeze]

Nice take Mondry. Thanks for posting those thoughts. It' true that this team is shaping into a solid all around unit. I'm a little stunned at how quickly they've turned it around. I was really against the move to hire Spielman as GM, but he has proven to be very shrewd when it comes to building a roster. There are still issues of course and depth concerns as always but the youth and talent here is compelling. Combine that with the fact that the coaching staff seems to have command of their respect i.e., guys are buying in, and it is easy to be optimistic.

And as for CP getting picked off.....both Cutler and Newton got picked on their first drives. It happens for whatever reason. The big difference is that they got another series to even it out. Ponder got to stew on the sidelines. So, he got two plays after waiting the whole off-season to get back on the field since being denied the chance to helm the team in the playoff game that he was a key factor in making possible.
I don't blame him for being salty on the sideline. If there is anybody who is truly motivated to quiet the naysayers it's him. Maybe it's a good thing to have him with a cranky chip on his shoulder.~

[mondry]

Nice take Mondry. Thanks for posting those thoughts. It' true that this team is shaping into a solid all around unit. I'm a little stunned at how quickly they've turned it around. I was really against the move to hire Spielman as GM, but he has proven to be very shrewd when it comes to building a roster. There are still issues of course and depth concerns as always but the youth and talent here is compelling. Combine that with the fact that the coaching staff seems to have command of their respect i.e., guys are buying in, and it is easy to be optimistic.

And as for CP getting picked off.....both Cutler and Newton got picked on their first drives. It happens for whatever reason. The big difference is that they got another series to even it out. Ponder got to stew on the sidelines. So, he got two plays after waiting the whole off-season to get back on the field since being denied the chance to helm the team in the playoff game that he was a key factor in making possible.
I don't blame him for being salty on the sideline. If there is anybody who is truly motivated to quiet the naysayers it's him. Maybe it's a good thing to have him with a cranky chip on his shoulder.~

I agree! I think there are a couple explanations for that. Mcnabb really screwed us over and cost us some really close games early in the year. There is just no way around that, he couldn't close out the games after we were usually winning by half time. Injuries also did a number on us, particular in the secondary, so they went from barely average to down right bad. I guess my point is, while that team went 3-13, they probably "should" have been 5-11, 6-10 if a few more things happened to go our way.

Then you're absolutely right about Spielman so far, Kalil blows any of the line men that went in the top 10 this year out of the water and Harrison Smith had an outstanding rookie year. Both of these guys filled arguably the 2 biggest holes on the team with studs imo. Josh Robinson played well behind winfield so hopefully he can translate to the starting role now. Jarius Wright looks to be a decent player for a 4th round WR. Of course the longer development cycle for Sullivan and Loadholt is all panning out now too, not to mention Everson Griffen.

And now we have freaking Jennings, Patterson, Floyd, Rhodes, Hodges, Mauti coming up? And steven burton looks good? Matt Cassel looking serviceable as a back up. Everything is too good right now... I hope I don't die in a Tsunami outside of st.paul!

[Delaqure]

I'm gonna jump on the bandwagon here Mondry and join the "well thought out post" crowd. Nicely done!

Those games gave me hope as much as the previous ones made me doubt. I personally don't care if he doesn't throw for 300 yrds per game as long as he can when he has too.

[The Breeze]

I agree! I think there are a couple explanations for that. Mcnabb really screwed us over and cost us some really close games early in the year. There is just no way around that, he couldn't close out the games after we were usually winning by half time. Injuries also did a number on us, particular in the secondary, so they went from barely average to down right bad. I guess my point is, while that team went 3-13, they probably "should" have been 5-11, 6-10 if a few more things happened to go our way.

Then you're absolutely right about Spielman so far, Kalil blows any of the line men that went in the top 10 this year out of the water and Harrison Smith had an outstanding rookie year. Both of these guys filled arguably the 2 biggest holes on the team with studs imo. Josh Robinson played well behind winfield so hopefully he can translate to the starting role now. Jarius Wright looks to be a decent player for a 4th round WR. Of course the longer development cycle for Sullivan and Loadholt is all panning out now too, not to mention Everson Griffen.

And now we have freaking Jennings, Patterson, Floyd, Rhodes, Hodges, Mauti coming up? And steven burton looks good? Matt Cassel looking serviceable as a back up. Everything is too good right now... I hope I don't die in a Tsunami outside of st.paul!

Ha! I think you'll be safe from the big waves up there. Don't forget about Blair Wal$h either. It's been pretty darn good so far.


One thing that I have to give McNabb props on, was his uncanny ability to always find the softest place on the field to fall down on. You just can't teach that kind of thing...he just had a gift.

[mondry]

Just found the data for it, in closes games (7 points or less, entering the 4th quarter) we went 2-9 in 2011. Last year we went 5-1. All I'll say is we still had Adrian in 2011, someone picked it up in 2012, weather that was Ponder or the defense or blair walsh who knows!

[The Breeze]

Just found the data for it, in closes games (7 points or less, entering the 4th quarter) we went 2-9 in 2011. Last year we went 5-1. All I'll say is we still had Adrian in 2011, someone picked it up in 2012, weather that was Ponder or the defense or blair walsh who knows!

Yeah, I distinctly remember how close they were in most games that whole season. There may have been 3 games total where they just got mauled, once by GB for sure. That's what made it all the more difficult to watch.

[PurpleKoolaid]

I wanted Blaine Locker-Mallet...

are you kidding? all of these guys are complete trash.

How much of Mallet have you seen?

[PurpleKoolaid]

Just found the data for it, in closes games (7 points or less, entering the 4th quarter) we went 2-9 in 2011. Last year we went 5-1. All I'll say is we still had Adrian in 2011, someone picked it up in 2012, weather that was Ponder or the defense or blair walsh who knows!

It's wether

And its was mainly AD, with ST (mainly WALSH, going to miss PH on those returns) and the D at times. It seems many are fine with the definition of Tjoke being a game manager, and just not screwing things up, for Ponder as well. Those things don't make a leader, or a playoff team.

[Mothman]

It's wether

It's actually spelled whether.

Sorry, I had to do it...

And its was mainly AD, with ST (mainly WALSH, going to miss PH on those returns) and the D at times. It seems many are fine with the definition of Tjoke being a game manager, and just not screwing things up, for Ponder as well. Those things don't make a leader, or a playoff team.

That doesn't sound quite right to me and I'm trying to my finger on just why it doesn't sound right...

Oh, I've got it! It's because the Vikings were a playoff team!

Seriously, all you're doing above is illustrating an obvious bias. When you say it "... was mainly AD, with ST (mainly WALSH, going to miss PH on those returns) and the D at times" I assume you're referring to the team's success. However, Ponder played a clear role in that success. Between passing and rushing, he contributed to 3188 of the 5385 total offensive yards the Vikings gained last year. He also had a hand in 20 of the 39 touchdowns they scored in 2012. Why ignore that?

[PurpleKoolaid]

It's actually spelled whether.

Sorry, I had to do it...
That doesn't sound quite right to me and I'm trying to my finger on just why it doesn't sound right...

Oh, I've got it! It's because the Vikings were a playoff team!

Seriously, all you're doing above is illustrating an obvious bias. When you say it "... was mainly AD, with ST (mainly WALSH, going to miss PH on those returns) and the D at times" I assume you're referring to the team's success. However, Ponder played a clear role in that success. Between passing and rushing, he contributed to 3188 of the 5385 total offensive yards the Vikings gained last year. He also had a hand in 20 of the 39 touchdowns they scored in 2012. Why ignore that?

It could be spelled whether or wether, but not weather in that sentence. But im the last guy here that should comment on grammer or spelling, hence the smilely.

And Im not ignoring what Ponder did. What scares me is what he cant do. With 8+ in the box every single time AD is on the field. I cant remember a lackluster QB continually improving his team with a leadership role, to consistently place them in the playoffs for a shot at the title. I am in Tjoke panic this year. But I think cooler minds like Spielman will prevail and he will pull the trigger or give the kid one last chance this year.

[Mothman]

It could be spelled whether or wether, but not weather in that sentence. But im the last guy here that should comment on grammer or spelling, hence the smilely.

I understand but just so you know, whether is the correct spelling and I say that not to be a jerk but because you should also know the the definition of wether is: a castrated ram. No kidding!