Game day comments: giants/vikings

[Pondering Her Percy]

PHP, I agree totally. I feel that PP can still play and I would like to resign him.
I think he is still very good, but definitely not the Sauce Gardner league anymore.
I could see bringing Harrison back on a restructured contract because he cannot perform to that salary. I would cut him after June 1, save the $15.2 million and then resign him to a veteran and team friendly contract. I would do the same with Zadarius. Cut Post June1, $15.3 m in Cap Savings, and then resign to a team and veteran friendly contract.

Those are both great ideas. I always get nervous with that though because if we cut them, do they take that as a punch in the face and will want to look elsewhere? Is that a thing? Or do we have talks with them privately, tell them what we’re going to do and resign them?

[Pondering Her Percy]

If you look at teams that had good long winning streaks, contended for a long time, they were NOT nostalgic regarding keeping aging players. Look at New England over the years. They found good young talent, but once they reached the end of initial contracts and were due to balloon to a bloated veteran contract, they traded those guys for high draft picks and moved on. Losing teams keep over priced "fan Favorites" because they know those players sell tickets even though the team will be less likely to make it to a championship. I saw this for 4 decades in the case of Chicago Cubs......sentimentality doesnt win anything but it makes money for ownership. Harrison shold have been traded when we could have profited but Spielman would have wasted the picks anyways. The worst thing you can do is hold em for too long, then have them move on and get nothing for them.

I disagree in regards to Spielman. Even though he’s gone, I’m still a huge backer of his because this team has a good chunk of talent because of him. KOC and Kwesi just played 2022 with Rick Spielmans team for the most part. Did he make dumb decisions at times, yes. Did he make bad draft picks at times, yes. But when you look at the entire body of work, this team doesn’t have 13 wins this year if it wasn’t for Spielman.

New England is a tough example to use because Belichick could make an undrafted free agent look like a hero. If you look at new englands draft, they weren’t great by any stretch of imagination.

Harrison is still a very good safety. He’s going to be the Eric Weddle type that will always be able to link onto a team late into his 30s just on intangibles alone. But guys like him and Kendrick’s didn’t start their decline until I would say last year. Mainly Kendrick’s, not as much Harrison. But Spielman didn’t really have the chance to cut them last year because he wasn’t part of this team last offseason.

Either way, I think Harrison looked like he declined a bit this year due to this scheme and how he was used compared to how zimmer used him. I can recall maybe twice where Donatell blitzed him off the edge. Hardly ever had him near the LOS, etc. Just had him sitting back in the vanilla shell coverage all game. That’s not how you use Harrison smith. No different than dropping hunter into coverage. That’s not how you use him either.

I think a lot of this scheme was a huge disadvantage to many aging players. I think the only guy it really helped probably was Patrick Peterson. It was a disadvantage to Harrison due to what I said above. Disadvantage to Danielle due to what I said above and a disadvantage to Kendrick’s leaving him out in space covering guys way faster than him. Same goes for Hicks.

In the end, this scheme didn’t really help much of anyone. I think we can be successful in a 3-4 but not the way Donatell runs it. The 10 yard off coverage, the lack of blitzing, the predictability, the lack of creativity and causing confusion, etc. That’s why I don’t see any possible way they can keep Donatell. That guy did a disservice to the players on this defense. No reason in the world you couldn’t have at least an average defense with these players. Nobody will ever get me to believe any different either.

Again, I want Kendrick’s and hicks gone. I want Asamoah and someone else with talent and speed starting next year. But Zadarius, Harry and Peterson are all must keeps IMO. Leadership, intangibles, savviness, etc. If you get rid of them too, you’re opening massive holes that you aren’t going to be able to fill overnight paired with already existing holes.

[Texas Vike]

Agreed on just about all counts. This isn’t a top 5 DL. I would say the Hunter/Smith combo flirts with top 5 but not our interior. Tomlinson is good and Phillips seems like just a guy to me. Problem with them, they are all known run stuffing guys. Same with Tonga who is in there often.

What 5 teams have better than top 5 edge rushers, a good DT and another solid DT? SF and ?

So let’s put it this way, so many pointed out the fact that we aren’t getting pressure. That was true but can anyone possibly blame hunter or smith?

Think about it, we were one of the lowest blitzing teams in the nfl, which is a disadvantage to hunter and smith. We have two run stuffing DTs that don’t generate any sort of pass rush, which is a disadvantage to hunter and smith. We show the same look snap after snap, which is a disadvantage to smith and hunter. And in the end both of those guys had double digit sacks and were top 10 in the nfl in pressures.

This is why I think they are a top 5 duo but Ed Donatell gave these guys absolutely zero help. They were our only source of getting pressure. Sprinkle in Wonnum and Jones but smith and hunter were absolutely left on an island and were expected to light the world on fire.

Pressure totals by top 4 pass rushers:
Philly: 205
Dallas: 216
Buffalo (top 5 since Von Miller went out partway through the season): 168
SF: 207
Vikings: 204
Miami: 182
NYJ: 177
Jacksonville: 180

Top 5 this looks even more favorable for the Vikings since only Dallas had a more prolific 5th pass rusher.

Most of those teams got the majority of their pressure from the edge, but you do have a point. Ed should have blitzed more and his coverage scheme was terrible. The Donashell scheme gave up way too many quick passes so even when the pressure was getting to the QB, it was usually too late because guys were open almost immediately.

Interesting stats you've posted. Would love to know the source. I'm wondering why you randomly chose 8 teams, instead of, say, the top 10 or 20.

If you look at the team pressure stats, it's clear we didn't fare too well.

We were 24th in pressure % in the NFL. 24th.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 22/opp.htm

We were also 24th in blitz %.

Again, my point is this: a larger portion of the blame for our defensive woes should be assigned to our ILBs and secondary, but I believe the trenches are more important. We need to be top 15 in pressure % to be a team that actually has a shot at the SB. Top 10, ideally.

Kwesi and KOC have a press conference at 1pm today. I really hope they announce Donatell's retirement.

[IIsweet]

PHP, I agree totally. I feel that PP can still play and I would like to resign him.
I think he is still very good, but definitely not the Sauce Gardner league anymore.
I could see bringing Harrison back on a restructured contract because he cannot perform to that salary. I would cut him after June 1, save the $15.2 million and then resign him to a veteran and team friendly contract. I would do the same with Zadarius. Cut Post June1, $15.3 m in Cap Savings, and then resign to a team and veteran friendly contract.

Those are both great ideas. I always get nervous with that though because if we cut them, do they take that as a punch in the face and will want to look elsewhere? Is that a thing? Or do we have talks with them privately, tell them what we’re going to do and resign them?

I feel that you always have an open line of communication. It's when the player gets blindsided that they become frustrated. Harrison can still play, but we have to get younger and faster at that position. I don't think Z fits the D anymore. He is a Rush Backer. definitely not able to cover backs and TEs. So even though we are using a 3-4, when he is in, it is more of a 42 defense. In this scheme, you have to be very fast at the LB and S positions. So you have to pick which you prefer? Z or Harrison? Regardless, at much lower salaries

[Pondering Her Percy]

Those are both great ideas. I always get nervous with that though because if we cut them, do they take that as a punch in the face and will want to look elsewhere? Is that a thing? Or do we have talks with them privately, tell them what we’re going to do and resign them?

I feel that you always have an open line of communication. It's when the player gets blindsided that they become frustrated. Harrison can still play, but we have to get younger and faster at that position. I don't think Z fits the D anymore. He is a Rush Backer. definitely not able to cover backs and TEs. So even though we are using a 3-4, when he is in, it is more of a 42 defense. In this scheme, you have to be very fast at the LB and S positions. So you have to pick which you prefer? Z or Harrison? Regardless, at much lower salaries

I almost lean towards Harrison here because he's usually healthy. Zadarius and the injuries worry me. Plus if we cut Zadarius, that saves 13.3 million in cap and only 3 mill in dead money. If we wanted to cut Harrison it only saves 7 million and 11 mill in dead money. I almost feel like cutting Zadarius is a no brainer.

[Texas Vike]

I feel that you always have an open line of communication. It's when the player gets blindsided that they become frustrated. Harrison can still play, but we have to get younger and faster at that position. I don't think Z fits the D anymore. He is a Rush Backer. definitely not able to cover backs and TEs. So even though we are using a 3-4, when he is in, it is more of a 42 defense. In this scheme, you have to be very fast at the LB and S positions. So you have to pick which you prefer? Z or Harrison? Regardless, at much lower salaries

I almost lean towards Harrison here because he's usually healthy. Zadarius and the injuries worry me. Plus if we cut Zadarius, that saves 13.3 million in cap and only 3 mill in dead money. If we wanted to cut Harrison it only saves 7 million and 11 mill in dead money. I almost feel like cutting Zadarius is a no brainer.

It's definitely a no brainer. Especially if we were to make a change at DC and return to a 4-3.

[J. Kapp 11]

I feel that you always have an open line of communication. It's when the player gets blindsided that they become frustrated. Harrison can still play, but we have to get younger and faster at that position. I don't think Z fits the D anymore. He is a Rush Backer. definitely not able to cover backs and TEs. So even though we are using a 3-4, when he is in, it is more of a 42 defense. In this scheme, you have to be very fast at the LB and S positions. So you have to pick which you prefer? Z or Harrison? Regardless, at much lower salaries

I almost lean towards Harrison here because he's usually healthy. Zadarius and the injuries worry me. Plus if we cut Zadarius, that saves 13.3 million in cap and only 3 mill in dead money. If we wanted to cut Harrison it only saves 7 million and 11 mill in dead money. I almost feel like cutting Zadarius is a no brainer.

Agree about Harrison.

He got misused this year. Why on earth would anyone take one of the best in-the-box safeties of the past decade and make him play out in the parking lot? But that’s exactly what Ed Donatell did playing him 20 yards deep every down. You could see Smith’s frustration in his postgame interviews. He believes he can still play. So do I.

Also, we all need a primer on NFL contracts. Nobody plays at lower salaries or takes pay cuts. That’s a fallacy. Whatever a player is guaranteed, that’s what he’s going to get. He’s never going to take less that the guaranteed portion of his contract. Salary or bonus doesn’t matter to the player. It only matters to the cap and how it’s accounted for.

Smith signed a 4-year, $64 million contract prior to the 2021 season with $26.4 million guaranteed, of which $9.6 million is a signing bonus. Over the past two years, Smith has been paid that entire $26.4 million, but he’s only counted $14.2 million against the cap. That’s because the signing bonus was spread out over the 4 years. But … he also had cap hit from his previous contract left over when he signed, to the tune of $2 million per year. So right now, if Harrison Smith is cut, the Vikings save $14.7 million in salary (not guaranteed because Smith has already received all his guaranteed money) but still have $11 million in dead cap (the remainder of the prorated $9.6 million signing bonus plus the remainder of the previous bonus that was restructured).

It’s a lot of funny math to say that the Vikings would only save a net $3 million in cap space by cutting him.

It would be silly to restructure him again because the Vikings will just be in the same boat a year or two from now. They’d have to convert some of his salary to bonus, prorate it over the length of the contract, PLUS carry over prorated bonuses from his previous two contracts. Smith wouldn’t actually be taking a pay cut because he’s not guaranteed that salary anyway. Restructuring him would simply push the cap pain of whenever we do cut him down the road.

If it were me, I would only restructure someone if I believed he could play at a reasonably high level for the duration of the contract. I would never restructure a player who is near the end of his career. It’s just putting money on a credit card. Smith and Thielen are the two best examples. Whether you keep them depends on whether you think they can still play at a reasonably high level.

Smith … probably has a good year left in him. Even being misused this year, he came down with 5 picks. I’d keep him at his current contract and re-evaluate next year.

Thielen … one of my favorite players, but I’d have to say no. His play has really fallen off. And he knows it. That’s why his wife was making farewell posts on Instagram.

[Texas Vike]

Thielen … one of my favorite players, but I’d have to say no. His play has really fallen off. And he knows it. That’s why his wife was making farewell posts on Instagram.

Her latest post actually makes it sound more like AT thinks he wasn't used correctly/ enough. "Adam wants opportunities to show what he can do and feel valued as a receiver, so we'll support him wherever that may be."

[StumpHunter]

What 5 teams have better than top 5 edge rushers, a good DT and another solid DT? SF and ?


Pressure totals by top 4 pass rushers:
Philly: 205
Dallas: 216
Buffalo (top 5 since Von Miller went out partway through the season): 168
SF: 207
Vikings: 204
Miami: 182
NYJ: 177
Jacksonville: 180

Top 5 this looks even more favorable for the Vikings since only Dallas had a more prolific 5th pass rusher.

Most of those teams got the majority of their pressure from the edge, but you do have a point. Ed should have blitzed more and his coverage scheme was terrible. The Donashell scheme gave up way too many quick passes so even when the pressure was getting to the QB, it was usually too late because guys were open almost immediately.

Interesting stats you've posted. Would love to know the source. I'm wondering why you randomly chose 8 teams, instead of, say, the top 10 or 20.

If you look at the team pressure stats, it's clear we didn't fare too well.

We were 24th in pressure % in the NFL. 24th.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 22/opp.htm

We were also 24th in blitz %.

Again, my point is this: a larger portion of the blame for our defensive woes should be assigned to our ILBs and secondary, but I believe the trenches are more important. We need to be top 15 in pressure % to be a team that actually has a shot at the SB. Top 10, ideally.

Kwesi and KOC have a press conference at 1pm today. I really hope they announce Donatell's retirement.

The 8 I chose were top 8 in pass rushing grade on PFF and I only went with 8 because it is a very manual calculation and I got tired of adding them up.

KC was 202 and Cleveland was 129 to round out the top 10 though.

All of these numbers come from PFF, which has a different threshold for pressure than pro football reference. Sometimes PFF's threshold is higher, sometimes lower, but based on my film study PFF is generally correct. When they say someone got 5 pressures in a game, I see 5 pressures occur in the game by that player.

[ERIK the PURPLE]

It’s January 18th. WHY HASN’T DONATELL BEEN FIRED YET!!!
C’mon Boy Wonder - Pull the trigger!

[IIsweet]

Kapp, Harrison's post June 1st cap savings completely change, according to https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/minnesota-vikings
That is what we were talking about. It's a legitimate conversation. Harrison, you are one of the fan favorites and we want you for the last of your best years. Unfortunately, we do not see paying you $19 million as the best scenario for this team. Let's agree on something that meets both of our personal agendas. If we cannot do so, we will help facilitate a trade that you prefer.
I would do the exact same with Thielen! That's tough as those are 2 of my all time faves, but the NFL is a business.

[JJBreaksRecords]

It’s January 18th. WHY HASN’T DONATELL BEEN FIRED YET!!!
C’mon Boy Wonder - Pull the trigger!

Culture Boy is too busy making up and calling stupid plays, and practicing his smile on camera to do his basic duties. And people thought Zimmer and Rick were bad, a year or 2 from now they will be screaming for KO and Kams heads. No way this leadership makes it 5 years. Worst draft I can ever remember, along with the worst D.

[JJBreaksRecords]

Kapp, Harrison's post June 1st cap savings completely change, according to https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/minnesota-vikings
That is what we were talking about. It's a legitimate conversation. Harrison, you are one of the fan favorites and we want you for the last of your best years. Unfortunately, we do not see paying you $19 million as the best scenario for this team. Let's agree on something that meets both of our personal agendas. If we cannot do so, we will help facilitate a trade that you prefer.
I would do the exact same with Thielen! That's tough as those are 2 of my all time faves, but the NFL is a business.

Much better ways to cut the fat then getting rid of Harry. KO doesnt even have the balls to fire Ed.

[MossCarterJefferson]

Kapp, Harrison's post June 1st cap savings completely change, according to https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/minnesota-vikings
That is what we were talking about. It's a legitimate conversation. Harrison, you are one of the fan favorites and we want you for the last of your best years. Unfortunately, we do not see paying you $19 million as the best scenario for this team. Let's agree on something that meets both of our personal agendas. If we cannot do so, we will help facilitate a trade that you prefer.
I would do the exact same with Thielen! That's tough as those are 2 of my all time faves, but the NFL is a business.

Much better ways to cut the fat then getting rid of Harry. KO doesnt even have the balls to fire Ed.

Vikings need to get rid of Harrison, Harrison is not good anymore and not worth $19 million

[CharVike]

Interesting stats you've posted. Would love to know the source. I'm wondering why you randomly chose 8 teams, instead of, say, the top 10 or 20.

If you look at the team pressure stats, it's clear we didn't fare too well.

We were 24th in pressure % in the NFL. 24th.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... 22/opp.htm

We were also 24th in blitz %.

Again, my point is this: a larger portion of the blame for our defensive woes should be assigned to our ILBs and secondary, but I believe the trenches are more important. We need to be top 15 in pressure % to be a team that actually has a shot at the SB. Top 10, ideally.

Kwesi and KOC have a press conference at 1pm today. I really hope they announce Donatell's retirement.

The 8 I chose were top 8 in pass rushing grade on PFF and I only went with 8 because it is a very manual calculation and I got tired of adding them up.

KC was 202 and Cleveland was 129 to round out the top 10 though.

All of these numbers come from PFF, which has a different threshold for pressure than pro football reference. Sometimes PFF's threshold is higher, sometimes lower, but based on my film study PFF is generally correct. When they say someone got 5 pressures in a game, I see 5 pressures occur in the game by that player.

Does pressure and sacks have a correlation or is it apples and oranges. Is pressure determined by a time interval or is that irrelevant? Can you have coverage pressure like coverage sacks or are they bogus? I would think the quicker the pressure the better. Is that the threshold? If it takes 10 seconds to get pressure can you really call that pressure is what I'm getting at.