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When many of the early mock drafts put those three QBs in the top 10, how could you not label them the "big 3"?

But I think that was early and there's been some shift in thinking. I've said before, I think two or even all three could be available to the Vikings at #8. And I also think they could pass on all of them if that happens.

Stat from @JPSTATS re: Derek Carr. Only 3 of his TD passes came outside pocket & he averaged just 5.8 ypp when rolling/scrambling left

I know it will shock you to find out that Mettenberger and McCarron combined for just 1 TD pass while outside of the pocket in 2013.

@LanceZierlein on Twitter

Mothman wrote: I'm basically repeating myself too. I think that possibility has been clear for months. It's just becoming more "real' to me as I hear more about how some of the teams and scouts perceive these players.

The possibility is there, but I think at least 2 of the "Big 3" will be gone before pick 10. Ultimately, I believe we'll see 4 Qb's gone in the first rd; Bridgewater, Manziel & Bortles, then in the very late 1st when someone trades back in to pick up Garoppolo. All it takes is one spark to start a brush fire. With the rookie wage scale taking so much of the risk out of the equation a panic run could happen very quickly. It's how Gabbert, Ponder and Locker got drafted where/when they did.

Derek Carr - QB - Bulldogs

NFL Media analyst Charles Davis says some NFL teams rank Fresno State QB Derek Carr above at least one of the group of Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel.

"I wouldn't count Carr out of the first tier just yet," Davis said. The analyst likes that Carr improved throughout his collegiate career and was consistently productive. Some NFL teams are smitten with his howitzer right arm, which dispenses slingshots even when his feet aren't properly set. Those feet need work, and Carr's next employer will surely work to stabilize his base immediately.
Source: NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... er-bortles

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Teddy Bridgewater - QB - Cardinals

NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater was asked to do a lot at the line of scrimmage, "which you don't see very often in college."

"I think Bridgewater is a very solid player, who is really good in a number of areas," Cosell said during a podcast interview. "He has great pocket instincts. I think he can make, pretty much, every throw." Cosell did add that Bridgewater needs to work on his downfield game, which many agree with, but pointed to the short to intermediate areas as bright spots. The longtime evaluator noted he would rank UCF's Blake Bortles as the top prospects at the position in this class.
Source: NFL.com

dead_poet wrote:Derek Carr - QB - Bulldogs

NFL Media analyst Charles Davis says some NFL teams rank Fresno State QB Derek Carr above at least one of the group of Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel.

"I wouldn't count Carr out of the first tier just yet," Davis said. The analyst likes that Carr improved throughout his collegiate career and was consistently productive. Some NFL teams are smitten with his howitzer right arm, which dispenses slingshots even when his feet aren't properly set. Those feet need work, and Carr's next employer will surely work to stabilize his base immediately.
Source: NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... er-bortles

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Teddy Bridgewater - QB - Cardinals

NFL Films' Greg Cosell believes Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater was asked to do a lot at the line of scrimmage, "which you don't see very often in college."

"I think Bridgewater is a very solid player, who is really good in a number of areas," Cosell said during a podcast interview. "He has great pocket instincts. I think he can make, pretty much, every throw." Cosell did add that Bridgewater needs to work on his downfield game, which many agree with, but pointed to the short to intermediate areas as bright spots. The longtime evaluator noted he would rank UCF's Blake Bortles as the top prospects at the position in this class.
Source: NFL.com

Very interesting... thanks for the info.

It seems like Bridgewater is almost universally viewed as the most pro-ready QB in this class, the one with the best handle on his mechanics, the best overall skill set for the pros (right now), etc.

Out of what I perceive as the top 5 QBs (Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles, Carr and Garoppolo), Manziel played a against a higher overall level of competition and he was a big play machine, so that helps set him apart. McCarron, Mettenberger and Murray obviously played against a higher level of competition too but generally speaking, they seem to be viewed a tier below the other 5 QBs right now.

What I'm getting at is the comments about Carr you posted above touch on something I've been wondering about for a while now: how much really separates the top 3 QBs in this draft from Carr? His mechanics need work but that's true of Bortles and Manziel as well. The production is there. The level of competition helps sets JFB apart but not Bortles or even Bridgewater. The latter doesn't seem to be viewed as a player who will need to make major adjustments to his game to succeed at the next level but most of the others are viewed that way. It seems like Bortles' size is really the main characteristic separating him from Carr. That doesn't seem like enough to make the former the first pick in the draft (or a top 5 selection) when the latter might be available later in the first round or even early in the second.

To put this another way: based on what I know, if I were laying odds on which of the top 5 QBs in this draft would become a successful, "franchise" QB, there wouldn't be much separating most of them.

Does that make sense?

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Gil Brandt ‏@Gil_Brandt 30m

Not as down on Bridgewater workout as some. Only saw 1 bad throw. Norv Turner told me he thought it was pretty good.

Sounds like Norv thought Bridgewaters workout was good.

To put this another way: based on what I know, if I were laying odds on which of the top 5 QBs in this draft would become a successful, "franchise" QB, there wouldn't be much separating most of them.

Does that make sense?

Really wish they were more specific. You watch Bridgewater, JFB, Bortles, and Carr play. And Bridgewater looks heads and shoulders above the rest. JFB somehow manages to make plays despite appearing incompetent half the time, and Carr/Bortles don't appear to have any read on what the defense is doing, or going beyond their first read, anticipating throws etc. Yet some mocks have Bortles going #1 overall?

Aaron Murray - QB - Bulldogs

NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger says Georgia QB Aaron Murray will have the best career of any signal caller in the 2014 class.

"I like Manziel, but I think he's going to get hurt," said Baldinger. "I think Bridgewater is going to go to a bad team. I think he's the best quarterback right now, but the question was, who is going to have the best career. I just think a guy like Aaron is probably going to go to a team where they may not need a quarterback (immediately). Where he goes, there may be no pressure." Murray, a four-year starter at Georgia, owns SEC records for passing yardage (13,166) and completions (921). The 6-foot, 207-pound Murray, who suffered a torn ACL in November, is a likely Day 3 pick. "Most of the great quarterbacks in this league right now, whether it's Manning, Rivers or Brees, they played a lot of college games," Baldinger said. "And this guy played as many as anybody in the country. ... When I watch him, he looks as good as anybody. He's got a good arm, he snaps the ball off, he's smart. He's probably going to get underdrafted."
Source: NFL.com

dead_poet wrote:Aaron Murray - QB - Bulldogs

NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger says Georgia QB Aaron Murray will have the best career of any signal caller in the 2014 class.

"I like Manziel, but I think he's going to get hurt," said Baldinger. "I think Bridgewater is going to go to a bad team. I think he's the best quarterback right now, but the question was, who is going to have the best career. I just think a guy like Aaron is probably going to go to a team where they may not need a quarterback (immediately). Where he goes, there may be no pressure." Murray, a four-year starter at Georgia, owns SEC records for passing yardage (13,166) and completions (921). The 6-foot, 207-pound Murray, who suffered a torn ACL in November, is a likely Day 3 pick. "Most of the great quarterbacks in this league right now, whether it's Manning, Rivers or Brees, they played a lot of college games," Baldinger said. "And this guy played as many as anybody in the country. ... When I watch him, he looks as good as anybody. He's got a good arm, he snaps the ball off, he's smart. He's probably going to get underdrafted."
Source: NFL.com

I believe he will be a good one.

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Since so many people seem to think Murray will be a good pro, how likely is it that he will actually be a day 3 pick? I would think a team that believes his injury won't pose long term problems might draft him on day 2, maybe even in round 2. After all, if you think the guy is a potential franchise QB, why wait and hope he lasts until the 4th round or later?

Mothman wrote:Since so many people seem to think Murray will be a good pro, how likely is it that he will actually be a day 3 pick? I would think a team that believes his injury won't pose long term problems might draft him on day 2, maybe even in round 2. After all, if you think the guy is a potential franchise QB, why wait and hope he lasts until the 4th round or later?

I would be open to drafting him in the second or third round. Maybe jump back into the second round to get him. He reminds me of Drew Brees.

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Mothman wrote:Since so many people seem to think Murray will be a good pro, how likely is it that he will actually be a day 3 pick? I would think a team that believes his injury won't pose long term problems might draft him on day 2, maybe even in round 2. After all, if you think the guy is a potential franchise QB, why wait and hope he lasts until the 4th round or later?

it wouldn't be a huge surprise. Russell Wilson was considered a 5th or 6th round prospect leading into the draft, but there was a lot of buzz about how good he was in college. His size and lack of elite talents (arm strength, speed, etc.) was what had pushed him down draft boards, but when the draft came, Seattle looked past his faults and focused on the things he did well, which was a lot of things, and ultimately took him a lot earlier than many expected.

The same could be said for Murray, if a team really likes his game, they'll probably overlook the injury and he may come off the board earlier than many are expecting.

Y'all are making Demi's day with all this Murray love.

Zack M's arm is literally twice as strong and more accurate for the deep throws Norv is going to want. And hes better in the pocket. Hes a better version of Big Benn Murray is a shrimp who likes to run, and is going to be hurt. A lot.

Wow JFB NEVER threw a decent pass to Evans And now Zack M's arm is TWICE as strong as Murrays. Ergo if Murray can throw a pass 60yds. then Zack M should be able to throw a ball at least 120 yds..