My thoughts on the offense as a whole

[Mothman]

As more and more data, research, and analysis get's done it's pretty clear that Norv is most of the problem. Data suggest now that the O-line, while still not ideal, actually protects "okay", there are plenty of plays when they block long enough for something good to happen. The problem is their inconsistency and then you combine that with long developing plays it makes them look worse than they actually are. Most O-lines in the league cannot keep pressure off the QB for over 3 seconds and a good portion of Norv's play's are asking for that or more. This makes it look like Teddy's holding the ball too long but in reality it's what the play calls for. You can see this time and time again on film where Teddy hits the top of his 7 step drop and the Wr's are still not ready for the ball to come out, they're still going deeper. From what I've seen, other teams QB's we've faced are getting rid of the ball on average in about 2.4-2.6 seconds while Bridgewater's average is around 2.9. That may not seem like much but it's the difference between getting strip sacked by Freeney and having a faster developing route to get rid of the ball. If anyone's curious, Teddy's average time of release for the ARI game with the new game plan was 2.48, almost a full half second quicker than any other game and right along with just about every other QB. On the 7 step drops it skyrockets to 3.02 seconds.


The other aspect to consider is Teddy's strengths and weaknesses as a QB. To be blunt, he's simply not fit for a deep vertical passing game but the data suggests he's borderline elite at everything in the 0-16 yard short and intermediate throws and he's elite against the blitz (or when teams rush more than 4). The problem is good teams are able to get pressure with their front 4 and when you add long developing plays that take over 3 seconds to unfold downfield it's doubling down on our weaknesses (O-line consistency and QB weaknesses)

The Wr's also have trouble getting open on these long develop plays, defenses have done their research and they seem content to camp out in the deeper portion of the field and our long developing route concepts often run the WR's straight into their coverage. Watch the 2nd half of the seattle game to get the most obvious example of this.

Norv likes to run on first down but the other teams know this and usually bring a run blitz or crowd the box often wasting a play for no gain or even a loss. He need to mix it up more on first down, especially when teams are essentially selling out on the first down run.

With all that said, there are mistakes from Teddy, the O-line, the Wr's, the running backs, etc but you really don't want to also be dealing with overcoming your OC's mistakes and some of the mistakes the others make are due to the situations Norv puts them in so he deserves by far the biggest amount of blame.

The best way to think about it is the differences we saw in the ARI game compared to the SEA game. Norv was still way too predictable about running on first down but the game plan was much more about attacking the short and intermediate routes that have been open the past month. ARI tried to play a similar "take away the deep portion of the field" that seattle did, but instead of sending our WR's into the teeth of the defense we attacked where they were vulnerable and enjoyed a lot of success. It was a double whammy of positives for us, that area of the field is also where Teddy is at his best and we saw his confidence spike, he was very decisive with the ball and threw into some tight windows for big time completions.

All throughout the week now we've heard from Peterson and Bridgewater about how this game plan "worked for everybody" and it's pretty clear to me what they are talking about. The quicker passes into the intermediate routes helps the O-line so they don't have to block for 3+ seconds, it helps the WR's get open because they aren't running INTO coverage, it helps Teddy because that's his strength, it helps Peterson because he's getting more than 8 freaking carries and it kept him on the field, even on passing downs.

Teddy hasn't regressed folks, it's not that teams have film on him, it's that they have film on what Norv's been doing and they're focusing on stopping it. That's true for every team but when it doesn't even match the strengths of our personnel, well then it makes the offense look even more pathetic and becomes even easier to stop. It took until the ARI game before we finally saw something different and boy did it work, until norv called one of his long developing plays at the end there...

Where are you seeing this data?

[The Breeze]

I really think the Seahawk defender pinpointed a significant problem with TB when he said our QB was terrified.
I think there's a lot of truth to it. His body language screams it to me.
After that comment, TB came out and played really well vs AZ.
I agree that there are systemic issues on offense...but this O-line wasn't very good in 09 either. Farve took an incredible beating but hung in there and rose above until he was ultimately pounded out.
Bridgewater needs to take charge of this team...I don't give a crap what the coaches are telling him as far as being a conservative game manager. If he doesn't have the killer instinct to force the issue when the situation calls for it, whether it means tucking and running vs drifting back and outta the pocket before chucking it OB, or throwing it downfield in a manner that actully gives his WR a 50/50 chance to come down with it.
It's frustrating as all get out to watch a chicken $hit brand of football week after week.
I like the energy TB brought last thursday and I'm curious to see if he continues to bring it. I think that comment may have been what he needed to hear....whether or not he can rise up remains to be seen.
He has definitely been a critical part of the problem, IMO.

[Demi]

or throwing it downfield in a manner that actully gives his WR a 50/50 chance to come down with it.

It'd help if we had a single WR other than maybe Rudolph who had a realistic 50/50 chance regardless of who is in coverage. It must be a dream for defending defensive coordinators to play the Vikings with the personnel they have on offense. And that includes the QB in a big way. We finally have a QB who might be able to execute that silly 90s big ten offense...and now we have an OC who wants 7 step drops to hit 4.4~ receivers in stride. The dysfunction continues!

[mondry]

So looking at some of the first down stats since I wanted to see how often we're running it among other things and we're at 65.8% on the season.

We lead the league in first down runs for 0 or less yards at 24.9% so basically one fourth of our first down runs gain nothing or hurt us.

We lead the league in first down runs for 2 yards or less and that happens 48.7% of the time so almost half the time we're gaining 2 yards or less.

In the last 9 games Teddy is 24 for 28, 85.7% completion rate, 225 yards, 8.0 average when using play action passes on first down. This is interesting because it shows he's extremely effective at play action passing and yet we only average about 3 play action plays a game. What's the point of all that predictable running on first down if we aren't using play action more?

I would love to see us come out and do 5 straight play action passes and establish Teddy and the passing game while no doubt SEA will sell out against the run to start the game.

[losperros]

In the last 9 games Teddy is 24 for 28, 85.7% completion rate, 225 yards, 8.0 average when using play action passes on first down. This is interesting because it shows he's extremely effective at play action passing and yet we only average about 3 play action plays a game. What's the point of all that predictable running on first down if we aren't using play action more?

I would love to see us come out and do 5 straight play action passes and establish Teddy and the passing game while no doubt SEA will sell out against the run to start the game.

I would like that too. It sounds like a good idea, given the stats to support it.

But then, I'm for trying anything that will help this offense sustain drives.

[mosscarter]

if teddy was scared the last time what inclination do you have that he won't be this time? seattle will put up 9 or 10 guys in the box to stop peterson and teddy will be forced to throw the ball behind the same offensive line. the only way i see us having a chance is for peterson to run for 175 and 2 td's and our defense to score a touchdown. or, to have patterson return one. bridgewater in close to sub zero temperatures should be a disaster. seattle will eat this dink and dunk high school passing attack alive.

[losperros]

if teddy was scared the last time what inclination do you have that he won't be this time? seattle will put up 9 or 10 guys in the box to stop peterson and teddy will be forced to throw the ball behind the same offensive line. the only way i see us having a chance is for peterson to run for 175 and 2 td's and our defense to score a touchdown. or, to have patterson return one. bridgewater in close to sub zero temperatures should be a disaster. seattle will eat this dink and dunk high school passing attack alive.

I think you're right. The Vikings passing game won't win this one. So I'm hoping that with a cold surface (which makes a fast field) we might see Peterson have a monster game. Of course, it would help if the OL blocks for him. I also am counting on Patterson returning a kick for a TD. Maybe two. Trouble is Seattle has to score for Patterson to get the opportunities.

[Mothman]

I think you're right. The Vikings passing game won't win this one. So I'm hoping that with a cold surface (which makes a fast field) we might see Peterson have a monster game. Of course, it would help if the OL blocks for him. I also am counting on Patterson returning a kick for a TD. Maybe two. Trouble is Seattle has to score for Patterson to get the opportunities.

Only once.

[mansquatch]

Playcalling could be a factor here also. There was a series late in the game Sunday night where they ran 3 rushing plays in a row with Mckinnon, did well, and then they ran on the 4th play losing something like 5 or 6 yards. After that they HAD to throw and promptly ended up punting. IMO, they should have called a pass on that 4th play, (I know hindsight is 20/20) they had them buttered up and the LB were shooting the gaps. I remember sitting there ahead of the play thinking "pass, you've got them right where you want them." I get you want to burn time, but if you've get them thinking run, then take advantage of it. Ultimately first downs at that point of a game are the most important thing. Sometimes I wonder if Turner is a bit too set in how approaches certain segments of the game.

If they stack 9 they do not need to hit passes of 10 yards, they can also hit bubble screens and other similar plays as well. As we said before the last game against this defense, it seems like a good time to put some plays in for #84 and take advantage of what he does well.

[Cliff]

I haven't been back to watch the bloodbath that was the Seattle game but what I remember hurting the offense the most was that Seattle was getting a ton of pressure with just their front four. This allowed them to "spy" Peterson and keep the short and medium-short stuff locked down.

Seattle is not going to let Petterson "get going" to open up the pass. The passing game is going to have to loosen them up. If the offensive line can hold up this is a test for Teddy, ready or not I think the game will largely be put on him if Seattle uses a similar game plan. Hopefully he'll use the last game with them as a chance to prove himself rather than looking over his shoulder all game.

If the offensive line keeps losing to the 4 man rush you can forget anything else. This offense can't overcome that, I don't think.

[dead_poet]

Seattle is not going to let Petterson "get going" to open up the pass. The passing game is going to have to loosen them up.

I would be beyond shocked if that was the game plan. The Vikings' identity is a run-first team and it will be playing in arctic temperatures. I suspect the game plan to be what it's been all season, if not more heavily run-centric. The offensive line can't handle Seattle's front four (much less front seven), so unless AD has some magic cuts in store he's not going to find much success. I fear Locke is going to get one heck of a workout. The only way the Vikings can win this one is if their defense keeps them in it and they keep the score low. Defense, special teams and the turnover battle will be critical. If the Vikings lose the turnover battle, I don't see any way they win.

If the offensive line keeps losing to the 4 man rush you can forget anything else. This offense can't overcome that, I don't think.

Unfortunately I don't think they can. I do wonder what if the game plan was what SF did to us in the opener with lots of "heavy" formations. Losing Rhett sucks.

Needless to say my expectations are probably lower than they were in the Arizona game. I just don't think the team matches up very well across the board. Points are going to be hard to come by (offensively, anyway).

[Cliff]

I would be beyond shocked if that was the game plan. The Vikings' identity is a run-first team and it will be playing in arctic temperatures. I suspect the game plan to be what it's been all season, if not more heavily run-centric. The offensive line can't handle Seattle's front four (much less front seven), so unless AD has some magic cuts in store he's not going to find much success. I fear Locke is going to get one heck of a workout. The only way the Vikings can win this one is if their defense keeps them in it and they keep the score low. Defense, special teams and the turnover battle will be critical. If the Vikings lose the turnover battle, I don't see any way they win.

I don't doubt that the game plan will remain about the same. I meant that Teddy would have to actually play well when he was called on. The Vikings will come out running as normal and probably get stuffed on the first several runs, as normal. If Teddy can't convert 3rd downs or complete a few decent passes early on it'll be ugly.

If he can't make them respect the passing game the game will look very similar to the last one. They've already proven they can take away the run if we can't get a passing game going.

Unfortunately I don't think they can. I do wonder what if the game plan was what SF did to us in the opener with lots of "heavy" formations. Losing Rhett sucks.

Needless to say my expectations are probably lower than they were in the Arizona game. I just don't think the team matches up very well across the board. Points are going to be hard to come by (offensively, anyway).

I almost posted about seeing a lot of extra protection. Even if it's an obvious running play the Vikes have enough weapons to keep it interesting. Peterson, McKinnon, Patterson, and Diggs can all make plays out of the back field.

[Texas Vike]

I think the key offensively is going to be our TEs. Pruitt is prime for a breakout day, and Rudy can get hot at moment's notice. SEA has problems covering TEs, and Teddy has shown that he likes to target them.

[mondry]

I don't doubt that the game plan will remain about the same. I meant that Teddy would have to actually play well when he was called on. The Vikings will come out running as normal and probably get stuffed on the first several runs, as normal. If Teddy can't convert 3rd downs or complete a few decent passes early on it'll be ugly.

If he can't make them respect the passing game the game will look very similar to the last one. They've already proven they can take away the run if we can't get a passing game going.

If the game plan is the same then I'm extremely worried, that basically means we're banking on the weather and the defense to keep them under 14 points for most of the game so we can waste a lot of plays simply running into stacked fronts "for no reason" other than to randy ratio carries to Peterson.

That didn't work last game and SEA is on fire right now where GB is a mess. I don't think we can expect to keep SEA to 3 points at half time, either. Basically what I see happening is the same thing that happened in the last game, we'll run for -2 yards on first down, maybe +1 on 2nd down then ask Teddy to bail them out on 3rd and 11 where they can rush four and drop seven into coverage to take away the first down marker. That's not fair to Teddy at all and I can already see his detractor's having a field day for another bad performance.

What it comes down to for me is this, are we running when they expect us to run and passing when they expect us to pass. If the answer is yes like last game we will lose without a miracle performance from the D. Let's hope they study that Rams tape...

I think the key offensively is going to be our TEs. Pruitt is prime for a breakout day, and Rudy can get hot at moment's notice. SEA has problems covering TEs, and Teddy has shown that he likes to target them.

They'll likely be made non factors as blockers in a max protect scheme so don't expect much if Norv stays the course. Rudolph had zero catches last game and even though he isn't particularly good at blocking I expect more of the same from Norv even though I agree seattle is weak against TE's, we won't be able to exploit it if Norv uses the same "run and throw deep" game plan in max protect.

[Texas Vike]

They'll likely be made non factors as blockers in a max protect scheme so don't expect much if Norv stays the course. Rudolph had zero catches last game and even though he isn't particularly good at blocking I expect more of the same from Norv even though I agree seattle is weak against TE's, we won't be able to exploit it if Norv uses the same "run and throw deep" game plan in max protect.

Sounds like you've already thrown the towel in. Keep your head up, we won the North and we're playing in January at home!

I'm hoping that Norv (and Zimmer) come out with a smart and varied game plan. Maybe I'll be disappointed, but I do expect them to have learned something since the last match up.