If we keep Harvin...

[mansquatch]

Moth, I really think you are overemphasizign the outside threat thing. They need a WR who can makes plays and doesn't line up in the slot. Whether the guy is 6'0 or 6'5 just impacts the routes he'll be better at running. They also arleady have a big, tall target in KR. Would a Brandon Marshall make us better, of course, but is it absolutely required at this point to get to the big game? I'm not sold on that.

IMO, they need a stretch guy more than a possession guy. To this point, nobody has made an argument I find persuasive that PH and JW cannot add that aspect to the team. JS can do it as well if he can consistently be on the field and improve off of last year. (He also has height) This is why I see them adding one guy, two at most to this position in the offseason. Everyone saying abandon the lot is not accounting for development of the guys added last year as well as that of CP. (not just what did they do, but also what is their trajectory?) Barring injury, the passing game will likely be better next year, the question is how much better.

As far as passing vs. rushing offense. I challenge folks to consider this simple fact: The Vikings have a truly legendary, top 5 all time RB. No RB in the league is close to what he can do on the field. So comparing "the rest of the teams" to us is a fallacy. We have a unique player and would be fools to not build around that unique player. You do not win in the NFL by playing follow the leader, you win by innovating.

The Vikes won 10 games last year by being a power rushing team in a pass happy league. If you did deeper there are reasons for this being successful. As teams focus more and more on defending the likes of Brady and Brees they build towards faster, more athletic types of defensive players. That type of defense faces significant matchup challenges againt a power rushing attack, especially one that sports a RB whose game is based on power, but can also run 10 second 100 yard dash. In short, the Vikes would be compelete morons to abandon this niche. The passing game needs to be a better compliment, but they also need to continue to empower their rushing attack, it is their bread and butter.

[Mothman]

Moth, I really think you are overemphasizign the outside threat thing. They need a WR who can makes plays and doesn't line up in the slot.

By definition, that's an outside threat, which is exactly what I'm talking about.

Whether the guy is 6'0 or 6'5 just impacts the routes he'll be better at running. They also arleady have a big, tall target in KR. Would a Brandon Marshall make us better, of course, but is it absolutely required at this point to get to the big game? I'm not sold on that.

I'm not saying a receiver like Marshall is absolutely required to get to the big game. It would just be nice to have a WR like that. However, it should be clear to anyone who watched last year's Vikings that a lack of talent on the outside hurt them in game after game so I think it's an area that deserves a great deal of emphasis. Regarding size, it doesn't just impact the routes a receiver will be running, it impacts his ability to get into those routes and to finish. A taller receiver has a better chance of going up and getting the ball at a higher point than the DBs covering him and a bigger, stronger receiver can use his body to establish position and fend off DBs to get a good release.

Rudolph doesn't fill the role of a big outside receiver in any way (except perhaps, as an end zone target) so I don't know why his name keeps coming up in WR discussions. He's a TE and he plays inside, which is where he belongs. Consequently, while he adds something valuable to the passing game as a whole, his presence on the field doesn't address the issues the Vikes have on the outside, which are not simply about having a big target. Ideally, it's nice to have that big target on the outside but the reason I keep using the word threat is because I think that's the element that's really missing. The Vikes best weapons are all inside players and that means defenses can play the middle and feel comfortable bringing a safety up to help defend Peterson, Rudolph and Harvin. Last year, I don't think many defenses were concerned about Simpson, Jenkins, Aromashodu or Burton doing damage. Wright was a bit more problematic but even if they pencil him in as flanker, they still need a split end and frankly, they should be able to do a lot better than Simpson. I'd like to see at least two quality additions that weren't on the team last year. They need to create a higher level of competition at the position.

IMO, they need a stretch guy more than a possession guy. To this point, nobody has made an argument I find persuasive that PH and JW cannot add that aspect to the team. JS can do it as well if he can consistently be on the field and improve off of last year. (He also has height) This is why I see them adding one guy, two at most to this position in the offseason. Everyone saying abandon the lot is not accounting for development of the guys added last year as well as that of CP. (not just what did they do, but also what is their trajectory?) Barring injury, the passing game will likely be better next year, the question is how much better.

Stretch guy, possession guy, combination of the two... what matters most to me is that they upgrade the talent on the outside so defenses can play less man and single safety coverage, so the middle opens up more and so Ponder can make more plays on the perimeter. I don't think many of us are failing to account for the development of players added last year. The problem is, at WR, we only really saw development from one of them: Wright (Harvin can be thrown in there too, I suppose, although he was already really good).

The Vikes won 10 games last year by being a power rushing team in a pass happy league. If you did deeper there are reasons for this being successful. As teams focus more and more on defending the likes of Brady and Brees they build towards faster, more athletic types of defensive players. That type of defense faces significant matchup challenges againt a power rushing attack, especially one that sports a RB whose game is based on power, but can also run 10 second 100 yard dash. In short, the Vikes would be compelete morons to abandon this niche. The passing game needs to be a better compliment, but they also need to continue to empower their rushing attack, it is their bread and butter.

I wholeheartedly agree with you on that!

[Texas Vike]

Jim, once again you and I are thinking along the same lines.

Who do you like to fill this position of need? I really like Josh Boyce from TCU. He's big and strong and surprisingly fast. I think he should be available in the late second or early third round. If we address the position sooner it seems to me that Hopkins or Allen are good options. Another mid-round option I like is Stills from OU.

[losperros]

I agree except for the part about the passing game needing to be a "better compliment." Not too long ago I saw the Packers beat the Vikings in a playoff game even though AD ran for over 190 yards. While this doesn't really prove all that much, one has to wonder what the game might have been like if the Vikings also had a formidable passing game. Not just a compliment to AD's running but a passing game that can burn defenses.

On that note, I was recently reminiscing about the bad old days when the "run first and just be okay at passing" philosophy was in effect, thanks to Brad Childress. Keep in mind that Chili wanted a "flat line" QB, which is usually what he got. The only time during Chili's reign of imploding terror that the Vikings offense really was balanced and truly formidable was when Brett Favre regurgitated a last career gasp in 2009. In between sex-texting and emailing naked pics of himself to whoever, Big Brett added considerable balance by providing a strong (not just capable) passing attack with AD's considerable running skills.

Personally, I think Frazier's definition of a running team is more far-reaching than Childress' version ever was and calls for much more balance from the passing game. That's why I think the Vikings are going to attempt to add some real horsepower to the WR talent pool. It's also why I think they'll give Ponder only one more year to be the guy at QB.

[mansquatch]

Losperros I think you are disagreeing with me on the term compliment. My idea of a better compliment is that the passing game is used to make a defense pay for selling out on AP, ie we become a 2 headed monster. In my view the monster has a big head and a smaller head, the big head is #28. To the point of the playoff game, that is actually supportive of my contention, in that game the Vikings were 1 dimensional since Webb was unable to complete a meaningful pass. Had Webb been able to complete passes it would have put their defense on their heels. The pass O still needs to be a threat. Defenses are not going to respect CP and co until they are punished for not doing so.

I consider the Patriots to be our polar opposite in the NFL. They are team that passes first and passes often and then uses a non-descript RB to keep you off balance and exploit your defense when you sell out against their strength. They still need to be able to run for this to work. The Vikings are in the same boat, just switch Rushing with Passing as the strength.

[losperros]

Losperros I think you are disagreeing with me on the term compliment. My idea of a better compliment is that the passing game is used to make a defense pay for selling out on AP, ie we become a 2 headed monster. In my view the monster has a big head and a smaller head, the big head is #28. To the point of the playoff game, that is actually supportive of my contention, in that game the Vikings were 1 dimensional since Webb was unable to complete a meaningful pass. Had Webb been able to complete passes it would have put their defense on their heels. The pass O still needs to be a threat. Defenses are not going to respect CP and co until they are punished for not doing so.

I consider the Patriots to be our polar opposite in the NFL. They are team that passes first and passes often and then uses a non-descript RB to keep you off balance and exploit your defense when you sell out against their strength. They still need to be able to run for this to work. The Vikings are in the same boat, just switch Rushing with Passing as the strength.

Okay, thanks for the clarification.

I'm actually hoping the passing game becomes nearly as much of a signature of the team's offensive attack as the running game. While I think Adrian Peterson is great and he's one of my all-time favorite players, I don't believe he can continue at the same pace as last season in every season. Not without a passing attack that more than holds it own, anyway.

[VikingLord]

It might be, although I still think they would be better off with 2 bigger receivers on the outside, even if one is a true deep threat and the other is a big-bodied possession receiver. I like Wright's game but I don't think the Vikes should just settle for him as one of their starting outside starters. Right now, I see him as a player that should be in the mix to start at WR, not as a definitive answer at the flanker position.

Going along with your observations, I wanted to point out something else that was lacking last year and that is downfield attempts. Not completions - attempts.

My point is that even if you get the big-bodied WR in there or a guy who can go down the field consistently, it won't matter if your scheme or gameplan doesn't call for plays that attempt to exploit that. People say nobody was afraid of the Vikings outside receivers last year, but to be fair to them, they didn't get that many chances to strike fear into opponents. It would be one thing if Ponder was winging it out there and they were dropping balls, biffing plays, losing out on jump balls, etc., but I didn't see that. I just didn't see the attempts.

Now if the lack of attempts are because Ponder and Musgrave don't trust the outside guys to make plays, then I agree finding a guy they do trust has to be a high priority (and likely wouldn't be done via the draft). OTOH, if the lack of attempts is because the scheme simply doesn't call for it or need them, then this is in fact not a high priority at all and the Vikes might not try to address it right away.

I don't know the answer to this, but for some reason I think Spielman isn't as concerned about it as everyone else seems to be. The Vikes will likely spend their big WR cash extending Harvin and look to buttress the WR corps in that 3rd-4th round range. I suspect Spielman will go after one of LB, NT, OG, or S with that 1st rounder, and then one of the other positions listed with the 2nd, and then we'll see a WR come off the board for the Vikes. There are only two WRs in this draft that I think merit #23 - Patterson and Austin. The others are line cooks (including Allen).

[Mothman]

Going along with your observations, I wanted to point out something else that was lacking last year and that is downfield attempts. Not completions - attempts.

My point is that even if you get the big-bodied WR in there or a guy who can go down the field consistently, it won't matter if your scheme or gameplan doesn't call for plays that attempt to exploit that. People say nobody was afraid of the Vikings outside receivers last year, but to be fair to them, they didn't get that many chances to strike fear into opponents.

I think that was a clear case of cause and effect. The Vikes were initially very excited about Simpson because they thought he could provide them with the downfield threat they needed. It seems pretty clear that they want more of a downfield passing game. Unfortunately, the receivers weren't very effective on the downfield opportunities they had, the protection wasn't holding up well on slow-developing plays and Ponder was inconsistent throwing those plays too. Downfield passes aren't high percentage plays in the first place but with last year's Vikings, they had an even lower chance of success. Why call many low percentage plays to ineffective outside receivers when they were rarely going to yield anything? It would be a self-defeating strategy.

It would be one thing if Ponder was winging it out there and they were dropping balls, biffing plays, losing out on jump balls, etc., but I didn't see that. I just didn't see the attempts.

I assume you're generalizing or referring to the number of attempts because I saw all of that and more. They obviously attempted to get the ball downfield at times. They even connected on a few but most of the time, it just didn't work well at all.

Jim

[Mothman]

Jim, once again you and I are thinking along the same lines.

Who do you like to fill this position of need? I really like Josh Boyce from TCU. He's big and strong and surprisingly fast. I think he should be available in the late second or early third round. If we address the position sooner it seems to me that Hopkins or Allen are good options. Another mid-round option I like is Stills from OU.

Of the pro free agents, Wallace is most appealing because he has serious deep speed. In the draft, I like Allen (if his knee is good) and Hopkins. I'm very intrigued by Aaron Dobson of Marshal too.

I'm on the fence regarding Woods and Hunter and I don't know much about Stills but I'll look up more info on him.

Austin's talented but his size gives me pause. I wouldn't spend a first round pick on him...

I like Patterson's natural playmaking ability but doubt he'll be an option. Swope is intriguing, as is Boyce.

Jim

[mondry]

deep threat WR's or not the coaching staff didn't do themselves any favors running flys hugging the side line as the only "deep routes". I specifically remember a number of attempts that failed from the beginning just because of the poor design of the play. At first they were getting pass interference calls so that's fine but then defenses realized they could simply let them fall out of bounds because as long as you maintained inside coverage there's no play to the outside.

It wasn't until Jarius Wright got some playing time in what, week 12 before we saw anyone even attempt to go deep down the middle of the field and both of those plays were successful. Hopefully musgrave learned from that... he is far more concerning to me than our receiving corp.

I've seen Harvin, Shianco, and Wright get deep and make those catches, I've seen Ponder throw perfect balls to all of them, but it's concerning to me that for the first 12 weeks our deep shot attempt was just a fly down the sideline. I whole heartedly agree that play doesn't have a high chance of success, it's an awful play heh.

[mansquatch]

I think you'll see more deep balls, but the increase will be marginal. This team wants to control the TOP and grind out yards. They'll take shots when they get them, they've showed that. However, my guess is Frasier and Co. would be perfectly happy with 180-200 yards of rushing and only 200 yards of passing.

The thing is there is more to this style of play than yards and attempts. If you end up with the above yardage totals there is a very strong possibility that you dominated the TOP and likely were at least a push on the Take/Give. In addtion, your defense kept control of the other team.

This is a lot different than a team like the Packers where their goal is 400+ yards passing and 28 points. They want to get the other team taking risks to keep pace, make mistakes and then punish the mistakes with more points. The Vikings are a low risk team that suffocates their opponents. Comparing the Vikings to that type of philosophy is not apples to apples.

The critical point above is that the Defense must keep the other team under control and our offense must not give up the ball stupidly. This is why I do not think that even with a monster WR signing we will see the Vikings start putting up 45 pass attempts every week. Not only is that not who they are, it is not who they want to be.

[losperros]

I think you'll see more deep balls, but the increase will be marginal. This team wants to control the TOP and grind out yards. They'll take shots when they get them, they've showed that. However, my guess is Frasier and Co. would be perfectly happy with 180-200 yards of rushing and only 200 yards of passing.

The thing is there is more to this style of play than yards and attempts. If you end up with the above yardage totals there is a very strong possibility that you dominated the TOP and likely were at least a push on the Take/Give. In addtion, your defense kept control of the other team.

This is a lot different than a team like the Packers where their goal is 400+ yards passing and 28 points. They want to get the other team taking risks to keep pace, make mistakes and then punish the mistakes with more points. The Vikings are a low risk team that suffocates their opponents. Comparing the Vikings to that type of philosophy is not apples to apples.

The critical point above is that the Defense must keep the other team under control and our offense must not give up the ball stupidly. This is why I do not think that even with a monster WR signing we will see the Vikings start putting up 45 pass attempts every week. Not only is that not who they are, it is not who they want to be.

It's not a matter of throwing the ball 45 times. It's a matter of winning games. Looking at the upcoming schedule, I don't think it's hard to envision that there will be times when the Vikings need to score fast and often. If the Vikings get into a bind where they absolutely must make plays through the air - and it will happen - then they need to be able to do it with success. It might not happen in every game but I think it's going to happen more times next season than last.

As for the Vikings playing a low risk game, that sounds suspiciously like playing-not-to-lose. The Vikings are one team that by now should know that particular philosophy doesn't bring them championships. Not anymore. They'll end up suffocating themselves if they get too happy with 200 yards passing per game, because it's not always going to be that way.

[Mothman]

deep threat WR's or not the coaching staff didn't do themselves any favors running flys hugging the side line as the only "deep routes". I specifically remember a number of attempts that failed from the beginning just because of the poor design of the play. At first they were getting pass interference calls so that's fine but then defenses realized they could simply let them fall out of bounds because as long as you maintained inside coverage there's no play to the outside.

It wasn't until Jarius Wright got some playing time in what, week 12 before we saw anyone even attempt to go deep down the middle of the field and both of those plays were successful. Hopefully musgrave learned from that... he is far more concerning to me than our receiving corp.

I've seen Harvin, Shianco, and Wright get deep and make those catches, I've seen Ponder throw perfect balls to all of them, but it's concerning to me that for the first 12 weeks our deep shot attempt was just a fly down the sideline. I whole heartedly agree that play doesn't have a high chance of success, it's an awful play heh.

There's nothing wrong with the deep call down the sidelines. Running the route down the middle isn't inherently better. It's all in the execution and Simpson, in particular, can't seem to grasp that if he runs his route too close to the sideline he leaves no margin for error.

[headless_norseman]

Here's the realistic scenario unfolding with the WR corps.......Keenan Allen could very well be there for us in the 1st round.






This ESPN Insider piece Insider on the Minnesota Vikings' offseason crystallized a plan we've discussed in abstract terms. Former NFL scout Gary Horton figures the Vikings like only two of their returning receivers, and because Percy Harvin and Jarius Wright are both best-suited to play the slot position, there is probably an offseason need for "two quality edge receivers with some speed," Horton writes.

In that scenario, the Vikings could seek one of those receivers in free agency and another in the draft. To that end, Insider reporter Field Yates recommends pending free agent Mike Wallace, and not Greg Jennings, as the free agent the Vikings should target.

Yates: "Wallace possesses rare speed, and though his production tapered off in 2012 compared to his previous two seasons, he remains one of the most dangerous downfield threats in the league. For an offense that is centered around pounding the football with [Adrian] Peterson, adding an explosive edge receiver in Wallace would effectively take the top off of defenses and create further lanes for Peterson to run."

Wallace ran a 4.33 in the 40 during his combine test in 2009 and would be an obvious downfield upgrade over Michael Jenkins, who could be released, and Jerome Simpson, a pending free agent. The question is whether the Vikings will want to get involved in negotiations that probably will use as a benchmark the five-year, $55 million contract that Vincent Jackson received last spring from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

As for the draft, let me pass along Mel Kiper's top five receivers Insider, a list he updated after last week's combine:

West Virginia's Tavon Austin
Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson
Cal's Keenan Allen
Tennessee's Justin Hunter
Louisiana Tech's Quinton Patton.


Austin has elite speed and playmaking ability, but at 5-foot-9 and 174 pounds, he projects at the same position as Harvin and Wright. Patterson (6-foot-3), Allen (6-3), Hunter (6-4) and Patton (6-2) are built more like edge receivers.

Patterson ran a 4.42 in the 40 at the combine, Hunter a 4.44 and Patton a 4.53. Allen did not run.


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth