How on earth … are the Vikings gonna stop the Cowboys?

[StumpHunter]

So your theory is that we are 4th in passing because we passed 6 times on the final drive of the game against Carolina?



The Vikings are 20th in pass/run percentage in the first half and they are 11th in points scored in the first half, 3rd among teams that have only played 6 games.

Contrast that with the 2nd half where they are 13th in pass/run percentage and 25th in points scored in the second half.

Seems like simply passing more is the key to a successful Vikings' offense to me!

They can't score at all in the 2nd half. That's been all year. Doesn't matter what they do. Better off throwing it up for grabs in the end zone. Zimmer has said himself and the rest of his offensive crew are looking at stuff and trying to come up with something. Supposedly he gave them a list of things to look at during the bye week. IMO at halftime the opponents are making the adjustments and it's working. On our side we haven't countered those adjustments.

Correct. It isn't a matter of more passing plays, it is a matter of better passing plays.

[psjordan]

Well I thought the numbers I posted would lead to a few conclusions but maybe not.

Basically we've passed as much in the first half as the second halves. We have 10 passing TD's in the first halves and 2 in the second halves. What does that tell you? We are situationally off track, we are too conservative in the third quarter, and other teams are woefully "out-adjusting" us. It's not that we need "better passing plays" - our QBR is pretty close 1st vs 2nd halves - it's that we need better situational awareness from our coaching staff on what plays to run when. Which leads me to ...

... 59% of our passes are on first or second down. Ignoring any 4th down passes, that means close to 41% of our passes are on third down. How is that fooling anyone? If you believe that play-action is one of our team's better traits, that percentage is ridiculous. What does it take to get to the DAL percentage of 75% of passes on first or second down? It takes a coach that is not mired in conservative play calling. It takes a coach that will take a chance and say run the two-minute offense in the first two minutes of the second half. It takes a coach that will go for it on 4th down inside the 10. Run 15 passes in a row to start the second half if that is what it takes to win games. It takes a self-aware coaching staff. Heck, NE with a rookie QB is at 74% of passes on 1st or 2nd down.

Obviously we are WAY "back loaded" with 36% of our passing plays in the 4th quarter or overtime. Add in the ZERO TD passes in the 4th quarter, and what does that tell you? It tells you we are in catch-up mode late in games and we are not good enough to score ANY passing TD's late in games, save for the one in OT. And that maybe we "settle" for late FG's. We obviously have the talent and approach to score 10 passing TD's in the first half of games. So does that not lead you to believe our approach changes in the second half of [close] games? Barring injuries the talent certainly doesn't change. The plays "available" to the offense don't change. Let's say the opposing D changes/adjusts. Well, where does that lead you? Directly to the coaching staff, in-game situational awareness and game planning.

And one missing component in all this that I'd love to see is "situational penalties", or those penalties that are absolute DRIVE KILLERS. Maybe they just stick out but I feel we have more than the average. How many do we have and when do they happen in games? Dunno. And again, having coached, I'd put the vast majority of those at the feet of the coaching staff.

Anyways, the idea here is to actually win games, not finish with the 4th highest passing offense. What we are doing to date has produced a 3-3 record.

If we can break out of the percentages above, I give us a great shot at winning this game.

[VikingLord]

Well I thought the numbers I posted would lead to a few conclusions but maybe not.

Basically we've passed as much in the first half as the second halves. We have 10 passing TD's in the first halves and 2 in the second halves. What does that tell you? We are situationally off track, we are too conservative in the third quarter, and other teams are woefully "out-adjusting" us. It's not that we need "better passing plays" - our QBR is pretty close 1st vs 2nd halves - it's that we need better situational awareness from our coaching staff on what plays to run when. Which leads me to ...

... 59% of our passes are on first or second down. Ignoring any 4th down passes, that means close to 41% of our passes are on third down. How is that fooling anyone? If you believe that play-action is one of our team's better traits, that percentage is ridiculous. What does it take to get to the DAL percentage of 75% of passes on first or second down? It takes a coach that is not mired in conservative play calling. It takes a coach that will take a chance and say run the two-minute offense in the first two minutes of the second half. It takes a coach that will go for it on 4th down inside the 10. Run 15 passes in a row to start the second half if that is what it takes to win games. It takes a self-aware coaching staff. Heck, NE with a rookie QB is at 74% of passes on 1st or 2nd down.

Obviously we are WAY "back loaded" with 36% of our passing plays in the 4th quarter or overtime. Add in the ZERO TD passes in the 4th quarter, and what does that tell you? It tells you we are in catch-up mode late in games and we are not good enough to score ANY passing TD's late in games, save for the one in OT. And that maybe we "settle" for late FG's. We obviously have the talent and approach to score 10 passing TD's in the first half of games. So does that not lead you to believe our approach changes in the second half of [close] games? Barring injuries the talent certainly doesn't change. The plays "available" to the offense don't change. Let's say the opposing D changes/adjusts. Well, where does that lead you? Directly to the coaching staff, in-game situational awareness and game planning.

And one missing component in all this that I'd love to see is "situational penalties", or those penalties that are absolute DRIVE KILLERS. Maybe they just stick out but I feel we have more than the average. How many do we have and when do they happen in games? Dunno. And again, having coached, I'd put the vast majority of those at the feet of the coaching staff.

Anyways, the idea here is to actually win games, not finish with the 4th highest passing offense. What we are doing to date has produced a 3-3 record.

If we can break out of the percentages above, I give us a great shot at winning this game.

This is an excellent breakdown of the issue with the offense in the 2nd halves of games. Too conservative and predictable.

I'd add on top of this not only the percentage of plays that are pass attempts, but also the aggressiveness of those attempts. It was so nice to see Cousins go downfield in OT to Osborn to win against the Panthers. That's aggressive coaching, right? No! After the game Osborn was interviewed about the play, and he said in the interview that he was the 3rd read on that play. Cousins was likely supposed to stay conservative and attempt a shorter pass, but either those routes were covered or Cousins just figured he'd look for Osborn on the deep route. And it worked. The game was over right there.

We need not only more passing attempts as a percentage of all plays in the 2nd halves of games, but more aggressive downfield attempts as well. At the very least that backs off the DBs and should make running a little easier even if they're not hitting on those attempts.

[S197]

Well I thought the numbers I posted would lead to a few conclusions but maybe not.

Basically we've passed as much in the first half as the second halves. We have 10 passing TD's in the first halves and 2 in the second halves. What does that tell you? We are situationally off track, we are too conservative in the third quarter, and other teams are woefully "out-adjusting" us. It's not that we need "better passing plays" - our QBR is pretty close 1st vs 2nd halves - it's that we need better situational awareness from our coaching staff on what plays to run when. Which leads me to ...

... 59% of our passes are on first or second down. Ignoring any 4th down passes, that means close to 41% of our passes are on third down. How is that fooling anyone? If you believe that play-action is one of our team's better traits, that percentage is ridiculous. What does it take to get to the DAL percentage of 75% of passes on first or second down? It takes a coach that is not mired in conservative play calling. It takes a coach that will take a chance and say run the two-minute offense in the first two minutes of the second half. It takes a coach that will go for it on 4th down inside the 10. Run 15 passes in a row to start the second half if that is what it takes to win games. It takes a self-aware coaching staff. Heck, NE with a rookie QB is at 74% of passes on 1st or 2nd down.

Obviously we are WAY "back loaded" with 36% of our passing plays in the 4th quarter or overtime. Add in the ZERO TD passes in the 4th quarter, and what does that tell you? It tells you we are in catch-up mode late in games and we are not good enough to score ANY passing TD's late in games, save for the one in OT. And that maybe we "settle" for late FG's. We obviously have the talent and approach to score 10 passing TD's in the first half of games. So does that not lead you to believe our approach changes in the second half of [close] games? Barring injuries the talent certainly doesn't change. The plays "available" to the offense don't change. Let's say the opposing D changes/adjusts. Well, where does that lead you? Directly to the coaching staff, in-game situational awareness and game planning.

And one missing component in all this that I'd love to see is "situational penalties", or those penalties that are absolute DRIVE KILLERS. Maybe they just stick out but I feel we have more than the average. How many do we have and when do they happen in games? Dunno. And again, having coached, I'd put the vast majority of those at the feet of the coaching staff.

Anyways, the idea here is to actually win games, not finish with the 4th highest passing offense. What we are doing to date has produced a 3-3 record.

If we can break out of the percentages above, I give us a great shot at winning this game.

This is an excellent breakdown of the issue with the offense in the 2nd halves of games. Too conservative and predictable.

I'd add on top of this not only the percentage of plays that are pass attempts, but also the aggressiveness of those attempts. It was so nice to see Cousins go downfield in OT to Osborn to win against the Panthers. That's aggressive coaching, right? No! After the game Osborn was interviewed about the play, and he said in the interview that he was the 3rd read on that play. Cousins was likely supposed to stay conservative and attempt a shorter pass, but either those routes were covered or Cousins just figured he'd look for Osborn on the deep route. And it worked. The game was over right there.

We need not only more passing attempts as a percentage of all plays in the 2nd halves of games, but more aggressive downfield attempts as well. At the very least that backs off the DBs and should make running a little easier even if they're not hitting on those attempts.

Doesn’t look like the routes were covered, the under route was open but Cousins went for the kill.

[CharVike]

Well I thought the numbers I posted would lead to a few conclusions but maybe not.

Basically we've passed as much in the first half as the second halves. We have 10 passing TD's in the first halves and 2 in the second halves. What does that tell you? We are situationally off track, we are too conservative in the third quarter, and other teams are woefully "out-adjusting" us. It's not that we need "better passing plays" - our QBR is pretty close 1st vs 2nd halves - it's that we need better situational awareness from our coaching staff on what plays to run when. Which leads me to ...

... 59% of our passes are on first or second down. Ignoring any 4th down passes, that means close to 41% of our passes are on third down. How is that fooling anyone? If you believe that play-action is one of our team's better traits, that percentage is ridiculous. What does it take to get to the DAL percentage of 75% of passes on first or second down? It takes a coach that is not mired in conservative play calling. It takes a coach that will take a chance and say run the two-minute offense in the first two minutes of the second half. It takes a coach that will go for it on 4th down inside the 10. Run 15 passes in a row to start the second half if that is what it takes to win games. It takes a self-aware coaching staff. Heck, NE with a rookie QB is at 74% of passes on 1st or 2nd down.

Obviously we are WAY "back loaded" with 36% of our passing plays in the 4th quarter or overtime. Add in the ZERO TD passes in the 4th quarter, and what does that tell you? It tells you we are in catch-up mode late in games and we are not good enough to score ANY passing TD's late in games, save for the one in OT. And that maybe we "settle" for late FG's. We obviously have the talent and approach to score 10 passing TD's in the first half of games. So does that not lead you to believe our approach changes in the second half of [close] games? Barring injuries the talent certainly doesn't change. The plays "available" to the offense don't change. Let's say the opposing D changes/adjusts. Well, where does that lead you? Directly to the coaching staff, in-game situational awareness and game planning.

And one missing component in all this that I'd love to see is "situational penalties", or those penalties that are absolute DRIVE KILLERS. Maybe they just stick out but I feel we have more than the average. How many do we have and when do they happen in games? Dunno. And again, having coached, I'd put the vast majority of those at the feet of the coaching staff.

Anyways, the idea here is to actually win games, not finish with the 4th highest passing offense. What we are doing to date has produced a 3-3 record.

If we can break out of the percentages above, I give us a great shot at winning this game.

Thanks for the breakdown you did a great job. What really sticks out is this 41% of the passes are on 3rd down. This even reaks more when you throw in the play-action stuff. We are not a play action team at all. Not even close. Dallas is a play action team. NE is a play action team. They are about 75% throwing on 1st and 2nd down. We are an offense that runs a very old style. Run, run then pass. I don't even know what that is called. I guess pointless. But it comes down to coaching. Zim runs everything. We don't have an OC or a DC. The titles are there but they are basically yes men to Zim. It seems like every game is a come from behind deal. Even the Card game when we played great on O we put up 14 quarter one and 23 the first half. Then only 10 the rest of the way. 4th quarter turned into FG city. Scoring a TD was basically impossible which points to being out coached.

[StumpHunter]

... 59% of our passes are on first or second down. Ignoring any 4th down passes, that means close to 41% of our passes are on third down. How is that fooling anyone? If you believe that play-action is one of our team's better traits, that percentage is ridiculous. What does it take to get to the DAL percentage of 75% of passes on first or second down?

Your numbers are not correct. 30% of our passes come on 3rd or 4th down:
Cousins has 239 pass attempts, 71 on 3rd down.
https://stathead.com/football/play_find ... &no_play=N

That is 5% more than Dallas's percentage of passes on 3rd down.

Dak has 216 pass attempts, 54 on 3rd or 4th down.

https://stathead.com/football/play_find ... &no_play=N

I included the link for 3rd and 4th down so you can verify.

It takes a coach that will go for it on 4th down inside the 10.

Zimmer has gone for it on 4th down inside the ten 33% of the time since he has been a HC. That is good for 16th most during that time period and significantly higher than 15% of the time Bellicheck has done it, and significantly higher than Tomlinson, Reed and Harbaugh as well.

[psjordan]

Your numbers are not correct. 30% of our passes come on 3rd or 4th down:
Cousins has 239 pass attempts, 71 on 3rd down.

You are correct! I looked at the wrong column and used first down completions instead of attempts. Mea culpa, I'm old.

Zimmer has gone for it on 4th down inside the ten 33% of the time since he has been a HC. That is good for 16th most during that time period and significantly higher than 15% of the time Bellicheck has done it, and significantly higher than Tomlinson, Reed and Harbaugh as well.

Again I'm not particularly interested in what other coaches do, particularly that Tomlinson guy. Their teams are constructed differently, coached differently, etc. I am only interested in what is keeping this team mired in "just-above-mediocrity". If we continue to do what we've always done, we will likely get the same results we always get.

Zimmer is 2-3 in the playoffs only due to The Miracle, without that the playoff record would be 1-4 in his seven? seasons.

My overriding point is that he has to change his approach in order to change results. Maybe he'll start doing so Sunday night. Maybe winning with THIS team will require frighteningly aggressive coaching.

[StumpHunter]

Maybe winning with THIS team will require frighteningly aggressive coaching.

In this coming game, against what looks to be a superior team, you are probably right.

[VikingLord]

This is an excellent breakdown of the issue with the offense in the 2nd halves of games. Too conservative and predictable.

I'd add on top of this not only the percentage of plays that are pass attempts, but also the aggressiveness of those attempts. It was so nice to see Cousins go downfield in OT to Osborn to win against the Panthers. That's aggressive coaching, right? No! After the game Osborn was interviewed about the play, and he said in the interview that he was the 3rd read on that play. Cousins was likely supposed to stay conservative and attempt a shorter pass, but either those routes were covered or Cousins just figured he'd look for Osborn on the deep route. And it worked. The game was over right there.

We need not only more passing attempts as a percentage of all plays in the 2nd halves of games, but more aggressive downfield attempts as well. At the very least that backs off the DBs and should make running a little easier even if they're not hitting on those attempts.

Doesn’t look like the routes were covered, the under route was open but Cousins went for the kill.

That is fantastic. The underneath guy couldn't be more open and Cousins obviously went for the kill there.

I hope he continues to look for those types of opportunities downfield. Even when he threw the deep ball that was picked against the Browns I was happy he at least looked downfield. It didn't work in that case but that's the type of passing play that's been largely absent so far this year. Not sure if that is because the coaches didn't fully trust the OL to block long enough to allow those routes to develop, but the Vikings have a QB who can hit those deep routes and receivers who can run them. They just need to pick their spots and make the attempts.

[CharVike]

Doesn’t look like the routes were covered, the under route was open but Cousins went for the kill.

That is fantastic. The underneath guy couldn't be more open and Cousins obviously went for the kill there.

I hope he continues to look for those types of opportunities downfield. Even when he threw the deep ball that was picked against the Browns I was happy he at least looked downfield. It didn't work in that case but that's the type of passing play that's been largely absent so far this year. Not sure if that is because the coaches didn't fully trust the OL to block long enough to allow those routes to develop, but the Vikings have a QB who can hit those deep routes and receivers who can run them. They just need to pick their spots and make the attempts.

This was only possible because of no pass rush. It looks like a practice session. That's what they need to work on. Stop the pass rush then things will fall into the place. Let them come in and it's over. Cousins can throw a football.

[CharVike]

Your numbers are not correct. 30% of our passes come on 3rd or 4th down:
Cousins has 239 pass attempts, 71 on 3rd down.

You are correct! I looked at the wrong column and used first down completions instead of attempts. Mea culpa, I'm old.

Zimmer has gone for it on 4th down inside the ten 33% of the time since he has been a HC. That is good for 16th most during that time period and significantly higher than 15% of the time Bellicheck has done it, and significantly higher than Tomlinson, Reed and Harbaugh as well.

Again I'm not particularly interested in what other coaches do, particularly that Tomlinson guy. Their teams are constructed differently, coached differently, etc. I am only interested in what is keeping this team mired in "just-above-mediocrity". If we continue to do what we've always done, we will likely get the same results we always get.

Zimmer is 2-3 in the playoffs only due to The Miracle, without that the playoff record would be 1-4 in his seven? seasons.

My overriding point is that he has to change his approach in order to change results. Maybe he'll start doing so Sunday night. Maybe winning with THIS team will require frighteningly aggressive coaching.

Zim will never change his approach. That doesn't mean he's a bad coach but he will use the approach that he believes in. Parcelles did the same thing. There hasn't been too many HC in history that could change. Shula was the best at it and the argument could be made that he was the best coach ever. He could do it with just the ground game early 70s, he could light it up Marino or he could do it with a running bum Woodley. It didn't matter he would change. I think the biggest problem for Zim right now is our defense. That's his pride and joy. He will do whatever it takes to protect them. That's why a shoot out isn't even in his thought process. He will only go to an all out attack if we get way behind. We seen it that game when Green Bay was hammering us and we came back. Sunday will be the same song and dance. If we get up early he will pull the reins back. Once you do that it throws the entire what was working out of sync and you might not get it back in sync.

[Foreman44]

The Answer. Score more points than Dallas

[VikingLord]

My overriding point is that he has to change his approach in order to change results. Maybe he'll start doing so Sunday night. Maybe winning with THIS team will require frighteningly aggressive coaching.

Maybe the addition of Darrisaw to the OL will encourage him to be more aggressive. I haven't watched any detailed analysis of the overall OL play or Darrisaw's play in particular against the Panthers, but it seemed like he held up well against a good pass rusher. Darrisaw displayed a solid base in college and has a wide wingspan. I think he's both more difficult to rush around and through than Hill who was spending too much time lunging or plunging. Having that more consistent and solid protection on Cousins' blind side should give both Zimmer and Cousins more confidence that he's not going to get smoked if he holds it a bit longer.

I also think the real key is the kinds of passes the Vikings attempt against the Cowboys (and, for that matter, any of the better defenses they face this year). From what I've seen, playing it safe and conservative on offense where the majority of the passes are shorter attempts just allows the 2nd and 3rd levels of the defense to creep up and start to peek into the backfield. That makes running more difficult as there are more defenders ready and able to come up to defend the run, but it also reduces the offense's ability to keep drives going as they're more likely to win up in 3rd-and-longer situations where those conservative playcalls are less likely to result in 1st downs.

Let it fly. See if the Cowboys can defend it.

[J. Kapp 11]

That is fantastic. The underneath guy couldn't be more open and Cousins obviously went for the kill there.

I hope he continues to look for those types of opportunities downfield. Even when he threw the deep ball that was picked against the Browns I was happy he at least looked downfield. It didn't work in that case but that's the type of passing play that's been largely absent so far this year. Not sure if that is because the coaches didn't fully trust the OL to block long enough to allow those routes to develop, but the Vikings have a QB who can hit those deep routes and receivers who can run them. They just need to pick their spots and make the attempts.

This was only possible because of no pass rush. It looks like a practice session. That's what they need to work on. Stop the pass rush then things will fall into the place. Let them come in and it's over. Cousins can throw a football.

There’s no pass rush because Kirk Cousins is only 7 yards deep, and the edge rushers are 3 yards past him. Kubiak had this going all day long … shallow drops that effectively took Carolina’s smallish speed rushers out of the game. This my not work against other teams, but it certainly did against the Panthers. It’s a page out of the Brady playbook. Short drop, make quick decisions, and get rid of the ball. It’s refreshing to see.

[StumpHunter]

He could do it with just the ground game early 70s,

Zimmer has only been a coach in the NFL since 1994...