What did I just watch?

[CharVike]

I think it just illustrates the problem with the point differential statistic and calls into question its usefulness. Immediately the 40-3 beating against Dallas skews it quite a bit with this small of a sample size. Their victories have been mostly close games and their losses have been wider but is that conclusive at all? For me, all it does is confirm that teams with higher winning records usually have higher point differentials. That's usually accurate but so what if it's not? Do we immediately draw the conclusions that because teams win by more they're better?

Every week it's situational with a ton of variables. How does each team's scheme match up? Any injuries? Hell, how did your QB sleep last night? The Bills, for example, the only point differential that mattered was at the end of the game when they were -3. I think it bothers people that statistics can't predict everything perfectly.

Just to be clear, I don't really have a fully formed opinion on the questions I raised in that post, but I do think point differential is worth looking at, especially now that we have 14 games as our sample size and all teams have had their byes. I am trying to make sense of why the Vikings are getting disrespected in the media and in Vegas, and I suspect that this has a fair bit to do with it.

There are things that stats can't measure, like determination, desire, and leadership. Possessing those qualities helps a team get wins in very close games.

When was the last time we got respect from the media? The year Zim took us to the champ game the media ignored us. They seemed pissed we were even there and had a hard time explaining it. Maybe Case had something to do with it. Even the year we went the Washington for the champ game there was little respect. Part of that was Kramer / Wilson at QB. Bur A Carter did get respect. Let's face it Cousins isn't a media favorite and he isn't even a favorite of Viking fans. Many posted on here that he sucks and they have disappeared. They will be back with the I told you so BS when if it ends. Vegas don't care. The betting makes the line move.

[VikeFanInEagleLand]

The '87 team was a very good team and definitely the hottest team during the playoffs and fell short of the Super Bowl by one great defensive play by Darrell Green. The '98 Vikings were the best team in football that year. I argue that THAT team may have been one of the best teams of all time, yet they didn't even get to the Super Bowl. The '17 Vikings were a better team than the Eagles, but lost to a suddenly great Nick Foles that was playing out of his mind. Maybe this year it will be their turn to knock off a better team. Two games at home, and maybe a third. Not impossible.

[VikingLord]

If you are really full of determination, desire, and leadership, you should never look like we did for the first 3 quarters, and for many parts of games this year. There have been too many stretches, often against weak teams, where we were looking unprepared, unresponsive, and failing to adapt.

To be fair to the Vikings, a lot of crazy things happened to them in that first half against the Colts. Sullivan had a fumble recovery for a TD wiped out by an early whistle. A blocked punt for a TD doesn't happen very often, and neither does a pick 6. And then Cook fumbled after ripping off a huge gainer. KOC calls for not one, but two 4th-and-short conversion attempts well on his own side of the 50 leading to 6 of the easiest points the Colts got all year. I'm not going to excuse the legitimately poor things the Vikings did in the first half, but in a more normal game the Colts would never have gotten ahead by the margin they did.

And then there is the character to not quit and keep fighting. I don't know if you've played competitive sports, but probably the single toughest thing to do, especially on a team, is to keep fighting and not give up when everything is seemingly going against you. It would have been so easy for the Vikings to do, too. I mean, even with a loss they would have 3 more games to clinch the North, so it wasn't a do-or-die game. They could have devolved into blaming each other or sulking around, and trust me, I've seen that happen on teams I've been on and once that sets in the game might as well be over. It takes something to keep the faith in yourself and in your teammates and go out there and not give up until its over.

There was one spectacular example of that against the Colts, too. The one play that exemplifies both the leadership of Kirk Cousins and the chemistry of team itself. It was the second INT Kirk threw on the deep ball intended for Reagor. The Vikings are fighting back. Kirk sees single coverage deep downfield and he lets it rip. Reagor, for whatever reason, stopped running the route while the DB didn't and the pass was easily intercepted. The camera swung over to Kirk's reaction, and for the barest glimmer of a moment it looked like Kirk was going to get angry and show disgust that Reagor stopped running on the route. But instead, he came over to Reagor, patted him on the back, and gave him words of encouragement. Other players and the coaches did too.

That is a small example of what makes this particular Vikings team unique and gives me faith in them. I know they've had some bad losses and I was not pleased at all with what I saw in the first half, but maybe, just maybe, the football gods are putting them to the test and finding out if they, and to some extent the fans of this team, are truly worthy. I think they, and by extension, we, are. I mean, many of us have plied these waters of being fans of this team for 40, 50, or 60 years now despite so many crushing disappointments. And yet we're still here. We still believe and hope. You're still here.

I don't know if they are going to win it all this year. God, I hope they do. I want that almost as much as I've ever wanted anything. But if there is a team in the league this year that isn't ever going to quit or give up, we're most certainly blessed with being the fans of that team this year. Like Kirk on that 2nd INT with Reagor as the intended target, I'm going to focus on what is good and emphasize how important it is not to quit and *finish the route*.

And you're going to be with us when that happens, Chicago. Got to believe in this team. They've worked miracles so far and I have to believe that magic is going to take them and all of us right to the promised land.

[chicagopurple]

Having been a constant fan for 50 + years, I have had my hopes crushed far too many times to get over enthused by a team that lives and dies by last minute come backs. They are fun to watch this year but I have little faith that it will lead to a championship this year. As far as being chronically disrespected, we kinda earned it by never really coming thru in the end. But back in the day, when we had the best RB in NFL history, when we had Purple People eater front lines and some really good QBs, the league was afraid of us, for good reason. Those years I had much higher hopes. I am having fun watching this year but I really feel it will take some insane breaks for us to win it all. But, it COULD happen.....heck, I still play Lotto once in a while and thats a much bigger gamble. I just look at the Indy game and almost 3 quarters of a defensive failure against one of the worst offenses in the league and it reinforces the inconsistency of the team and coaching this year.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Having been a constant fan for 50 + years, I have had my hopes crushed far too many times to get over enthused by a team that lives and dies by last minute come backs. They are fun to watch this year but I have little faith that it will lead to a championship this year. As far as being chronically disrespected, we kinda earned it by never really coming thru in the end. But back in the day, when we had the best RB in NFL history, when we had Purple People eater front lines and some really good QBs, the league was afraid of us, for good reason. Those years I had much higher hopes. I am having fun watching this year but I really feel it will take some insane breaks for us to win it all. But, it COULD happen.....heck, I still play Lotto once in a while and thats a much bigger gamble. I just look at the Indy game and almost 3 quarters of a defensive failure against one of the worst offenses in the league and it reinforces the inconsistency of the team and coaching this year.

3 quarters of defensive failure? I figured there would be some fans that "think" the defense played bad because it was 33-0 at one point and they just werent paying attention to what was actually going on. The Vikings only allowed Ryan to throw for 182 yards. Held their leading rusher to 3.4 YPC. They blitzed 40.5% of drop backs (prior to this game they were blitzing at 13%) and Matt Ryan was averaging 3.5 yards per attempt when facing the blitz.

Point is, where are you pulling "defensive failure" from? This was one of the best defensive games they've played in a while but many wont see that because they just see a score.

However......
7 was allowed off a blocked punt
7 was allowed off a pick six
7 was allowed off KOC going for it in Indy's redzone
3 was allowed off KOC going for it by running a fake punt in Indy's redzone

That's 24 points allowed off of stupid shi* and nothing to really do with the defense. Outside of that, the defense allowed 4 FGs the rest of the game.

So I can honestly tell you right now that this game was the complete opposite of a defensive failure. There's more to it than just the 36 points Indy had. The above proves that.

[CharVike]

Having been a constant fan for 50 + years, I have had my hopes crushed far too many times to get over enthused by a team that lives and dies by last minute come backs. They are fun to watch this year but I have little faith that it will lead to a championship this year. As far as being chronically disrespected, we kinda earned it by never really coming thru in the end. But back in the day, when we had the best RB in NFL history, when we had Purple People eater front lines and some really good QBs, the league was afraid of us, for good reason. Those years I had much higher hopes. I am having fun watching this year but I really feel it will take some insane breaks for us to win it all. But, it COULD happen.....heck, I still play Lotto once in a while and thats a much bigger gamble. I just look at the Indy game and almost 3 quarters of a defensive failure against one of the worst offenses in the league and it reinforces the inconsistency of the team and coaching this year.

3 quarters of defensive failure? I figured there would be some fans that "think" the defense played bad because it was 33-0 at one point and they just werent paying attention to what was actually going on. The Vikings only allowed Ryan to throw for 182 yards. Held their leading rusher to 3.4 YPC. They blitzed 40.5% of drop backs (prior to this game they were blitzing at 13%) and Matt Ryan was averaging 3.5 yards per attempt when facing the blitz.

Point is, where are you pulling "defensive failure" from? This was one of the best defensive games they've played in a while but many wont see that because they just see a score.

However......
7 was allowed off a blocked punt
7 was allowed off a pick six
7 was allowed off KOC going for it in Indy's redzone
3 was allowed off KOC going for it by running a fake punt in Indy's redzone

That's 24 points allowed off of stupid shi* and nothing to really do with the defense. Outside of that, the defense allowed 4 FGs the rest of the game.

So I can honestly tell you right now that this game was the complete opposite of a defensive failure. There's more to it than just the 36 points Indy had. The above proves that.

They blitzed 40.5% of drop backs (prior to this game they were blitzing at 13%.. That's the only way to do it. Big time pressure slows every QB I have ever seen. Dumbo Donatell just figured that out. I'm sure KOC hinted that to him.

[chicagopurple]

sometime. you are right, Percy.....defensive failure was a bad term for it......just screw ups would be a better term. The change in defensive scheme to blitz more was pretty obvious. I have to believe the Head Coach had to be the driving force there. I doubt the DC has suddenly changed his philosophy. Hopefully, the coach continues to push the defense to take a more aggressive stance, the bend till you break philosophy seems like nothing but a liability that our offense has had to continually compensate for.

[J. Kapp 11]

Having been a constant fan for 50 + years, I have had my hopes crushed far too many times to get over enthused by a team that lives and dies by last minute come backs. They are fun to watch this year but I have little faith that it will lead to a championship this year. As far as being chronically disrespected, we kinda earned it by never really coming thru in the end. But back in the day, when we had the best RB in NFL history, when we had Purple People eater front lines and some really good QBs, the league was afraid of us, for good reason. Those years I had much higher hopes. I am having fun watching this year but I really feel it will take some insane breaks for us to win it all. But, it COULD happen.....heck, I still play Lotto once in a while and thats a much bigger gamble. I just look at the Indy game and almost 3 quarters of a defensive failure against one of the worst offenses in the league and it reinforces the inconsistency of the team and coaching this year.

3 quarters of defensive failure? I figured there would be some fans that "think" the defense played bad because it was 33-0 at one point and they just werent paying attention to what was actually going on. The Vikings only allowed Ryan to throw for 182 yards. Held their leading rusher to 3.4 YPC. They blitzed 40.5% of drop backs (prior to this game they were blitzing at 13%) and Matt Ryan was averaging 3.5 yards per attempt when facing the blitz.

Point is, where are you pulling "defensive failure" from? This was one of the best defensive games they've played in a while but many wont see that because they just see a score.

However......
7 was allowed off a blocked punt
7 was allowed off a pick six
7 was allowed off KOC going for it in Indy's redzone
3 was allowed off KOC going for it by running a fake punt in Indy's redzone

That's 24 points allowed off of stupid shi* and nothing to really do with the defense. Outside of that, the defense allowed 4 FGs the rest of the game.

So I can honestly tell you right now that this game was the complete opposite of a defensive failure. There's more to it than just the 36 points Indy had. The above proves that.

Yeah, the defense actually did its job Saturday. Hard to believe, given what we've witnessed the five previous weeks, but it's true. Here are some more points to back it up.

They didn't just blitz, they blitzed from everywhere. Hicks, Hitman, Asamoah, Kendricks and Sullivan all blitzed. Shows that if Ed Donatell will just get his head out of his a$$, this team has the personnel to make stops. Not shut teams down, but make stops.

The Vikings played man coverage on 41.8 percent of snaps. Only twice before had Minnesota played man coverage on 20 percent.

Saturday's performance was their second-best of the season in terms of defensive EPA.

And to add to PHP's summary of the Colts' scoring, their first field goal came after a special-teams breakdown allowed Dallis Flowers to return the opening kickoff to midfield. Their last field goal came after another long Flowers kickoff return.

Really can't fault the defense. It does make me wonder ... have they unwittingly unlocked something that could help down the line? Not sure why Ed Donatell was so stubbornly married to his shell coverage, but it was obvious that his personnel can play man, at least on occasion.

Too late to turn it around? Maybe. But maybe not. In 2006, the Colts were the worst defense in the NFL. They were in division and playoff contention because of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, et. al., but their defense was bottom of the league in all categories.

Then Bob Sanders returned to the lineup late in the season. Overnight, the Colts became almost impossible to score on. They ended up hosting a Lombardi.

We obviously don't have a Bob Sanders waiting in the wings. But maybe this comeback accidentally brought forth a new iteration of the defense. With the way this offense can put up points, all we need is a league average defense. Maybe playing more man and getting more pressure (which every fan on the planet seemed to know long before Donatell did) turns us into average.

Matt Ryan was a statue back there. Getting pressure on him wasn't that surprising. We'll be able to tell a lot in the next two weeks, as the Vikings face Daniel Jones and Justin Fields, two of the most mobile quarterbacks in the game. If we can pressure those guys, we might just be able to make a run.

[VikingsVictorious]

My take? We're not as good as our record might indicate and the Colts are not as bad as theirs would indicate.

Phil Mackey put it pretty well yesterday: This iteration of the Vikings is the Rocky Baloa of the NFL. I think that's accurate. Like Rocky, we have way more heart (desire, determination, passion) than technical skill. Refuse to give up. Always willing their way off the canvas when everyone thinks it's over.

Yo, Adrian!!!!

Some follow up thoughts on this:
1) take a look at the points differential for other teams with 10 wins or more: Buffalo +135, Cincy +81, KC +92, Philly +143, Dallas +125, SF +128. The Vikings? +2.

2) Other teams within 10 of our +2 point differential (and their records): Miami (8-6), Jacksonville (6-8), Raiders (6-8), Commanders (7-6-1), Lions (7-7), Seahawks (7-7).

Conclusion: Of these two tiers, where do the Vikings fit better? Our record says we're with the Bills, KC, Philly, SF and Dallas, but our point differential says Seahawks, Lions, Commanders, and Raiders, et al.

We fit better with the first group. Point differential doesn't mean ####. Wins do.

[VikingsVictorious]

We are not delusional. The Vikings are not the best team. But...and I can't stress this enough...they are GOOD ENOUGH! The important thing here is that they have a good chance to be the #2 seed. There is also a good chance that the Eagles will play the Cowboys and lose, thus giving the Vikings homefield throughout. I will tell you that I am a big Washington fan for the rest of this regular season because I don't want Detroit sneaking into the 7th seed. I would much rather play NYG, WAS or SEA in that first game. If they advance, then a probable matchup against the 49ers...but again, this will be at home if they maintain the #2 seed. Bottom line is, they aren't the best team, but they are GOOD ENOUGH to beat anyone they will play in the playoffs.

Agreed. I wouldn't like our chances against the 85 Bears, but I'm just fine with our chances against any team we will play this season.

[Pondering Her Percy]

sometime. you are right, Percy.....defensive failure was a bad term for it......just screw ups would be a better term. The change in defensive scheme to blitz more was pretty obvious. I have to believe the Head Coach had to be the driving force there. I doubt the DC has suddenly changed his philosophy. Hopefully, the coach continues to push the defense to take a more aggressive stance, the bend till you break philosophy seems like nothing but a liability that our offense has had to continually compensate for.

Yes too many screw ups early on and we continue to keep shooting ourselves in the foot. But with the way they played defense on Saturday, it actually gave me hope for that defense. Because prior to that I had very little, not because of the players but because of Donatell. If he can continue to adapt, adjust and literally never go back to what he was doing before, I think they could be a lot better. The talent is there, the coaching hasnt been. If we keep teams on their toes, we are going to be dangerous to contend with.

[VikingsVictorious]

The '87 team was a very good team and definitely the hottest team during the playoffs and fell short of the Super Bowl by one great defensive play by Darrell Green. The '98 Vikings were the best team in football that year. I argue that THAT team may have been one of the best teams of all time, yet they didn't even get to the Super Bowl. The '17 Vikings were a better team than the Eagles, but lost to a suddenly great Nick Foles that was playing out of his mind. Maybe this year it will be their turn to knock off a better team. Two games at home, and maybe a third. Not impossible.

I think Denver was every bit as good as us in 1998. What a Super Bowl that could have and should have been.

[phantom]

Jekyll & Hyde

[VikingLord]

IMO the 49ers are the team to beat. They are a tough team that plays good D and they know what the playoffs are about. They will turn it up.

Yes, their defense is good, but to win you have to be able to score and to score you need a QB who can perform under pressure. Purdy looked good in his two stints so far, but it isn't uncommon for rookie QBs to look good in their first few starts because teams don't have any tape on them and their OC tends to dumb things down and keep them simple. You get a few quick scores and the defense plays strong and Purdy probably looked a lot better than he is.

For the record, this is what WalterFootball had to say about Purdy as a prospect before last year's draft (they had Purdy as their 7th rated QB prospect):

https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2022QB.php

I'm not saying Purdy can't pull off a series of performances like Nick Foles managed when he won the Superbowl with the Eagles. I'm just saying when push comes to shove and the 49ers are in a dogfight, that's when they'll find out if they've got a QB. Purdy hasn't been tested yet. Odds are good his first real test is going to come in a playoff game. The 49ers remaining schedule is moderately challenging with home games against the Commanders and Cardinals sandwiched around an away game with the Raiders. Those should provide some assessment of Purdy as a regular starter.

Not saying he won't pass those tests. Just that the 49ers have a HUGE question mark at QB right now, and it's extremely rare for teams to go deep into the postseason without at least solid QB play.

** Addendum to my post **

I read yesterday that in the history of the NFL no team has ever gone to a Superbowl with a 3rd string QB. And Brock Purdy is no ordinary 3rd string QB - he's a rookie 3rd string QB who was taken with the last pick in last year's draft.

Of course, if there were a year in the NFL where the impossible or never-done-before is going to happen or be done, this is probably that year, but the 49ers will have to win 3 games with Purdy under center to get to the Superbowl, much less win it. With DCs having plenty of tape on Purdy by that point, and with defenses that are generally fundamentally much better on playoff teams, San Fran will be looking at a very tall order to expect Purdy to take them deep into the playoffs.

Yes, the 49ers have a lot of great skill position players on offense for sure, and they have a defense that is probably the best in the NFL right now. That gives them a chance, but they're definitely going to test the theory that a team needs great QB play to win a Superbowl. Somebody is going to find a way to get inside the young QB's head, probably yet in the regular season. If Purdy's track record as a college QB follows him into the pros, we can expect to see a game or a couple of games where he struggles.

[Texas Vike]

Some follow up thoughts on this:
1) take a look at the points differential for other teams with 10 wins or more: Buffalo +135, Cincy +81, KC +92, Philly +143, Dallas +125, SF +128. The Vikings? +2.

2) Other teams within 10 of our +2 point differential (and their records): Miami (8-6), Jacksonville (6-8), Raiders (6-8), Commanders (7-6-1), Lions (7-7), Seahawks (7-7).

Conclusion: Of these two tiers, where do the Vikings fit better? Our record says we're with the Bills, KC, Philly, SF and Dallas, but our point differential says Seahawks, Lions, Commanders, and Raiders, et al.

We fit better with the first group. Point differential doesn't mean ####. Wins do.

Here's something else to consider:

Vikes
@vikesinsider
The #Vikings have the largest 4th quarter point differential in the NFL, at +66.