Week 11: Cowboys @ Vikings predictions

[CharVike]

I see a win. The Cowboys have a good D and will get after the QB but they can be run on. They are weak at the DT position. Their offense for having what seems to be all the right pieces in place has let them down. On our side Darrisaw and Evans didn't practice which is a concern. We are getting thin in the secondary and Lamb is dangerous. I think 20-17.

[VikingsFan84]

After the big win against Buffalo, I do not see Vikings winning this game since they are tired from celebrating

Cowboys-31
Vikings-24

[VikingsVictorious]

I predict
Vikings win
Cowpukes lose

[VikingLord]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

[J. Kapp 11]

As Jon Krawczynski wrote in The Athletic:

It seems like every season the Cowboys are hyped as some super-talented group. Every season they prove to be overrated. So I’ll believe it when I see it. And maybe after Sunday, I will believe it. But they have to show me something first. These guys couldn’t cover Christian Watson. What are they going to do with [Justin] Jefferson?

I agree wholeheartedly. We get our first multi-score game since Week 1.

Vikings 31
Cowboys 17

[JJBreaksRecords]

Cowpies 24
Vikings 13

[soflavike]

I've been predicting a "back down to earth" game for a few weeks, and we've kept winning. So, I'll predict the Cowboys cover the spread and beat the Vikings. Cowboys 23-16 (Joseph misses a PAT, of course)

[VikingsVictorious]

I've been predicting a "back down to earth" game for a few weeks, and we've kept winning. So, I'll predict the Cowboys cover the spread and beat the Vikings. Cowboys 23-16 (Joseph misses a PAT, of course)

Thank you for doing your part in assuring a Vikings Victory. However, I don't think they need your predictions for them to win.

[StanM]

I spent 1970-1971 on shore duty in Corpus Christi, Texas, and developed my dislike of the Cowboys while living there. A few years later my dislike turned to hate with a Drew Pearson push off Hail Mary catch. The notorious “Whiskey bottle” game where a frustrated Vikings fan tossed an empty pint and an official.

If such a thing as karma exists I feel like this is the season us old timers are finally being vindicated for what happened in the 70’s. I realize this magical run could end at any point but if I truly is some kind of karma and magic on our side I hope this is our breakout game where we have our foot on their throats by the half. Nothing would make me happier then four full quarters of solid Vikings football in front of a friendly crowd.

[CharVike]

Cowpies 24
Vikings 13

Sooner or later you will be right.

[CharVike]

After the big win against Buffalo, I do not see Vikings winning this game since they are tired from celebrating

Cowboys-31
Vikings-24

I don't think anyone was arrested so maybe they laid low in their home environment. I doubt holder Olli was out there for obvious reason plus I think he likes partying in that warm weather like Miami. Little tough to be dressed down in Minny right now.

[cmoss84]

One of my favorite and earliest Vikings game memories... whooping the cowboys #### on Thanksgiving...think Moss had 2 or 3 TDs. We are close enough to Thanksgiving and at home. Pollard and Lamb will give us fits...but we prevail.
32-25.

[VikingLord]

I was puzzled as to why the Cowboys were favored in this game by what amounts to more than the typical +3 the home team gets by default, so I've been doing some reading and it appears the betting line comes down to 2 major factors:

- The Cowboys are statistically better than the Vikings. The Cowboys are like 4th in DVOA for yards per play differential between their offense and defense, while the Vikings are 17th in the same metric and actually are negative in that metric (meaning their defense gives up more yards per play than their offense gains). This differential plays out across other metrics as well. For example, the Cowboys are +47 in point differential on the season, while the Vikings are +35 I believe. And on it goes in multiple statistical categories where the Cowboys have just been objectively better even if that isn't necessarily reflected in their overall W-L record.

- An overriding lack of belief that the Vikings are as good as their record indicates, while many seem to believe that Dallas is one of the better overall teams in the league.

The first factor is more objective and hard to argue, although of course there is nuance in the stats, while the second factor is very subjective and comes down to how people generally view the talent on the two teams.

To be completely honest, I can understand why the betting line favors the Cowboys for that reason. The Vikings are 8-1, but they have yet to have a statement win or even a comfortable win. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have more losses, but have had several fairly comfortable wins this season, and did so in many of their games with Cooper Rush at QB. With Prescott back under center, the logic goes that they should be even better.

I'm a little surprised that the OT loss to what is turning out to be a bad Packers team is not weighing more heavily, especially given how Prescott struggled at times, but the Cowboys managed pretty convincing wins against the Lions and Bears in the two games prior to that and carried a 2 TD lead late into the game against the Packers and that must be carrying more weight.

Personally, I'm not worried about this game because I think you can throw the stats out the window. The Vikings may fall behind or even be behind late. They may again need some seemingly miraculous plays at key moments. I just believe they will make the plays that need to be made and the ball will bounce their way. Could the Vikings go out and dominate? I suppose they could. They've been playing better overall and more consistently, but even if that doesn't happen or Dallas gets ahead I'm just not worried.

I feel like the Vikings are starting to put it together, and this is the time of the year when good teams do that. Add their good fortune to that mix, and I think the Vikings win.

[Texas Vike]

I was puzzled as to why the Cowboys were favored in this game by what amounts to more than the typical +3 the home team gets by default, so I've been doing some reading and it appears the betting line comes down to 2 major factors:

- The Cowboys are statistically better than the Vikings. The Cowboys are like 4th in DVOA for yards per play differential between their offense and defense, while the Vikings are 17th in the same metric and actually are negative in that metric (meaning their defense gives up more yards per play than their offense gains). This differential plays out across other metrics as well. For example, the Cowboys are +47 in point differential on the season, while the Vikings are +35 I believe. And on it goes in multiple statistical categories where the Cowboys have just been objectively better even if that isn't necessarily reflected in their overall W-L record.

- An overriding lack of belief that the Vikings are as good as their record indicates, while many seem to believe that Dallas is one of the better overall teams in the league.

The first factor is more objective and hard to argue, although of course there is nuance in the stats, while the second factor is very subjective and comes down to how people generally view the talent on the two teams.

To be completely honest, I can understand why the betting line favors the Cowboys for that reason. The Vikings are 8-1, but they have yet to have a statement win or even a comfortable win. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have more losses, but have had several fairly comfortable wins this season, and did so in many of their games with Cooper Rush at QB. With Prescott back under center, the logic goes that they should be even better.

I'm a little surprised that the OT loss to what is turning out to be a bad Packers team is not weighing more heavily, especially given how Prescott struggled at times, but the Cowboys managed pretty convincing wins against the Lions and Bears in the two games prior to that and carried a 2 TD lead late into the game against the Packers and that must be carrying more weight.

Personally, I'm not worried about this game because I think you can throw the stats out the window. The Vikings may fall behind or even be behind late. They may again need some seemingly miraculous plays at key moments. I just believe they will make the plays that need to be made and the ball will bounce their way. Could the Vikings go out and dominate? I suppose they could. They've been playing better overall and more consistently, but even if that doesn't happen or Dallas gets ahead I'm just not worried.

I feel like the Vikings are starting to put it together, and this is the time of the year when good teams do that. Add their good fortune to that mix, and I think the Vikings win.

Fantastic post, VL!

To add to the "things to consider" box:

Over the past 20 years, NFL teams are 127-133 in the game immediately following a road game that went to overtime, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. -- Kevin Seifert

Did anyone else catch the celebration video on youtube of the Vikes after the win over the Bills? That was an EMOTIONAL celebration. Maybe that's what the do every time they win, what do I know? But my big fear is that their emotional and physical tanks are dry and they come out flat. I'm also worried about Booth Jr. getting his first start. I probably shouldn't worry, because the Cowboys were too stupid to hold onto Amari Cooper and gave him away for a 5th (why didn't WE trade for him?!), leaving CeeDee and ??? Gallup? Noah Brown? An overpaid, mediocre TE named Schultz?

We seem to have the Cowboys number in the playoffs and they have ours in the regular season. But that was in the Mike Zimmer era and before Kirk-O Chains had emerged. I think we do it again: a 4th quarter comeback for yet another emotional win. 24-21.

[Cliff]

To add to the "things to consider" box:

Over the past 20 years, NFL teams are 127-133 in the game immediately following a road game that went to overtime, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. -- Kevin Seifert

Did anyone else catch the celebration video on youtube of the Vikes after the win over the Bills? That was an EMOTIONAL celebration. Maybe that's what the do every time they win, what do I know? But my big fear is that their emotional and physical tanks are dry and they come out flat. I'm also worried about Booth Jr. getting his first start. I probably shouldn't worry, because the Cowboys were too stupid to hold onto Amari Cooper and gave him away for a 5th (why didn't WE trade for him?!), leaving CeeDee and ??? Gallup? Noah Brown? An overpaid, mediocre TE named Schultz?

We seem to have the Cowboys number in the playoffs and they have ours in the regular season. But that was in the Mike Zimmer era and before Kirk-O Chains had emerged. I think we do it again: a 4th quarter comeback for yet another emotional win. 24-21.

I don't think the stat really shows much. If you flipped a quarter 260 times 127 heads and 133 tails might very well a result you get.