Young Theodore Bridgewater

[Mothman]

Jim, here's some more good news for your stats.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 80901.html

Thanks. My hope is that we'll see more consistent production from the offense next season. I realize they had to face some genuinely difficult hurdles this year.

Glass-half-full me wants to just buy what's being sold in those paragraphs 100% but glass-half-empty me can't look at some of those comments without picking at them a bit, especially the comment about "careless disregard for meaningful context". Those December stats for Bridgewater are very impressive. No argument there but when I see the first Chicago game being singled out as the point in the season after which the offense supposedly found their identity, I have to ask: what happened in the last game? Same opponent, same point total... the Vikings didn't really have a sustained TD drive in either game. Their only TD Sunday came on a busted coverage and their only TD @Chicago was set up by a 45+ yard fake punt. Is that a matchup issue revealing itself? Where was the improvement from one bookend game to the other, in the roughly 70 additional yards gained on offense?

They scored 29 points against Washington before playing the Bears in November so the latter game seems like a somewhat arbitrary demarcation for improvement. They finished the season scoring 14 or less in two of their final three games and sandwiched between them was one of their best offensive performances of the season. Between the November Bears game and the second Lions game, the offense averaged about 21 points per game (the Vikes scored more than that but the defense and special teams scored 21 points against CAR and NYJ combined). The article states that the Vikings averaged 24 points in the final 6 games but the clear implication is that's an indication the offense "found it's identity" and started hitting it's stride. To some extent, it did, but using the aforementioned 21 points to arrive at that 24 point average seems like a "careless disregard for meaningful context" as well.

When it comes to Teddy's numbers, there's clear statistical improvement later in the season. However, when it comes to the offense as a whole, I think it's pretty easy to spin things in whatever direction we choose. The article spins it positively, starting after the first Bears game. We could just as easily point to 2 of the final 3 performances being among the 7 games this season in which the offense scored 14 points or less and say they still had issues scoring. I think the truth is they lacked consistency, which is probably because they had injury issues and talent gaps, and they clearly have a lot of room for improvement. As the article also implies, increased familiarity with the system could pay dividends next year, and hopefully it will.

[J. Kapp 11]

I've already seen Bridgewater in the media discussion for the award but it will be a pretty big upset if it doesn't go to Odell Beckham Jr. Frankly, I think OBJ should win it. He's been phenomenal.

Beckham's LSU teammate, Jarvis Landry, caught 84 passes for the Dolphins. Heck, he could finish second to OBJ in the voting.

Doesn't matter to me. Any rookie QB who can average more than 9 yards per attempt in December and rank in the top 4 in passer rating is fine by me, trophies or not. Think about it ... 9.18 yards per attempt. That's ridiculous in the NFL. Derek Carr, who gets a lot more media attention than Teddy, averaged 5.51 over the same stretch. The great Peyton Manning averaged 8.18, which is excellent but still a full yard less than Teddy.

I can't wait to see what this kid does next season.

[Ardenn]

Well, it sounds great but how did they arrive at it? How many of those completions were simple check downs (Asiata alone had 44 receptions this year).

There's a lot of focus on TB's completion percentage, accuracy under pressure, etc., much of it encouraging (especially since he had some of his better games later in the season) but one stat that troubles me is the Vikings offense scored just 25 TDs in the 12.5 games he started, an average of 2 per game.

Jim the Killjoy (sorry, this stuff is just what's on my mind)

Per PFF, Teddy's YPA under pressure was 5.3. That almost matches Derek Carr's YPA overall
I expect a lot of check downs under pressure, that's the main reason they're built into plays - but 5.3 YPA under pressure is good. It could be better, but its good. Means he's keeping his eyes downfield and making good intermediate throws even when he knows he's going to take a hit.

I think the problem with the low scoring production is in the run game. We ran the ball a lot and didn't produce a lot. Norv also had a habit of taking the ball out of Teddy's hands in the redzone. I believe this was part of a plan to try to protect his rookie - I expect at least one of the training wheels to come off next season.

[MusicCityViking]

I think the problem with the low scoring production is in the run game. We ran the ball a lot and didn't produce a lot.

Great point, I agree completely. When you have two young running backs (Asiata & McKinnon) you can't expect to consistently gain 4-6 yards per rush like you could with Peterson.

Norv also had a habit of taking the ball out of Teddy's hands in the redzone. I believe this was part of a plan to try to protect his rookie - I expect at least one of the training wheels to come off next season.

Right. That is precisely the reason why Asiata had 9 rushing TD's. Not giving Teddy many opportunities in the redzone.

[J. Kapp 11]

Well, it sounds great but how did they arrive at it? How many of those completions were simple check downs (Asiata alone had 44 receptions this year).

My response to both of your questions is another question: What difference does it make?

First of all, the most important thing about the stat is the comparative angle ... Teddy completed a higher percentage than any other QB in those situations, however PFF defines those situations.

And regarding check-downs, again, what difference does it make? Would you rather have him taking (even more) sacks, misfiring, or throwing picks?

Finally, I wonder how those numbers look over the last month of the season, when Teddy really started coming on. If his overall YPA in December was 9.18, then I'm fairly confident that his under-pressure completions weren't just check-downs.

[Mothman]

My response to both of your questions is another question: What difference does it make?

First of all, the most important thing about the stat is the comparative angle ... Teddy completed a higher percentage than any other QB in those situations, however PFF defines those situations.

Which, as far as I've been able ascertain, isn't clear and that's why the questions I asked make a difference, at least to me. How good is their methodology? How consistent, especially over time? What is their criteria for declaring a QB "under pressure"? I have no idea if I can rely on PFF's stats beyond basic stuff like ascertaining the number of times a player touched the ball, appeared in the lineup, etc. When they venture into more subjective areas, who knows how they're assessing things?

And regarding check-downs, again, what difference does it make?

It's informative. What kind of passes is he completing under pressure? Ardenn suggested PFF's 5.3 YPA under pressure stat for Bridgewater "Means he's keeping his eyes downfield and making good intermediate throws even when he knows he's going to take a hit." Does it? Or does it mean he threw a lot of quick check downs and a couple of throws he made under pressure ended in huge gains by the receiver after the catch? I don't know but that's the point: on it's own, it's not very clear what the stat means.

Would you rather have him taking (even more) sacks, misfiring, or throwing picks?

Of course not, don't be silly. I'd just like more information and just to be clear, I'm not being critical of Bridgewater, I'm being critical of PFF (again).

[Mothman]

I think the problem with the low scoring production is in the run game. We ran the ball a lot and didn't produce a lot. Norv also had a habit of taking the ball out of Teddy's hands in the redzone. I believe this was part of a plan to try to protect his rookie - I expect at least one of the training wheels to come off next season.

I certainly agree that the running game contributed to low scoring production but then, I think the inconsistency of the entire offense contributed to it.

[Ardenn]

I certainly agree that the running game contributed to low scoring production but then, I think the inconsistency of the entire offense contributed to it.

In the latter half of Teddy's starts, he had a few series where he came out off/flat (the back to back picks against the lions being the most glaring example), but for the most part he was really consistent. We kicked a lot of field goals after marching down the field because Norv called up back to back stuffed runs and then tossed a conservative short of the sticks play to improve field goal position.
We could put Teddy out there and just ask him to sling it 50 times a game like Luck or Stafford and probably get much better production, but I get the sense that Norv is really trying to protect Teddy.
Edit: It occurs to me that its also very likely that Norv expects Peterson on the field next year, and probably expected him on the field this year in the earlier games. The offense that he ran this year and stuck with may demonstrate a desire to set the tone for the way the offense will be run when Peterson is back, to get players comfortable with plays intended for Peterson.

[frosted]

Jim: "Get Off My Lawn!"

Hahaha. Just kidding, Moth.

You just seem extra contrarian these days.


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[TeddyViking]

I certainly agree that the running game contributed to low scoring production but then, I think the inconsistency of the entire offense contributed to it.

There you go now your starting to get it. Now just understand the second half of the season TB was by far the most consistent player on offense. So just improve the other areas and everything will get better. The key is Teddy has been the most consistent player on offense the second half of the season. It's easy to see the rest of the offense has made Teddy's job much harder and still he has managed to play pretty damn consistent and even more important consistently improve.

My advice to all concerns about Teddy is forget all the stats and just understand what doesn't show up anywhere in stats is Teddy has the courage of a lion. Courage and talent is what legends are made of. If you are still truly not convinced yet let me ease your mind. The way Teddy played in the month of December is his new floor. He's only gonna get better.

[PurpleMustReign]

Jim: "Get Off My Lawn!"

Hahaha. Just kidding, Moth.

You just seem extra contrarian these days.


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[J. Kapp 11]

Which, as far as I've been able ascertain, isn't clear and that's why the questions I asked make a difference, at least to me. How good is their methodology? How consistent, especially over time? What is their criteria for declaring a QB "under pressure"? I have no idea if I can rely on PFF's stats beyond basic stuff like ascertaining the number of times a player touched the ball, appeared in the lineup, etc. When they venture into more subjective areas, who knows how they're assessing things?

And I would contend that it doesn't matter, as long as all quarterbacks are being evaluated in the same way.

It's informative. What kind of passes is he completing under pressure? Ardenn suggested PFF's 5.3 YPA under pressure stat for Bridgewater "Means he's keeping his eyes downfield and making good intermediate throws even when he knows he's going to take a hit." Does it? Or does it mean he threw a lot of quick check downs and a couple of throws he made under pressure ended in huge gains by the receiver after the catch? I don't know but that's the point: on it's own, it's not very clear what the stat means.

First of all, you can't really make a quick check-down under pressure. If you get the ball out quickly, you're not under pressure (most likely).

As for huge gains after the catch, the quarterback still has to make the play to even get the receiver the ball.

I also see that you didn't address my comment about the last month of the season. I would venture a guess that any quarterback who is averaging 9.18 yards per attempt is probably completing more than just check-downs when he's under pressure. That's a guess, of course, but a fairly educated one.

I would agree with you, however, that the dude's commentary about "eyes downfield" and "intermediate throws" can't be ascertained simply by looking at an average. By itself, the 5.3 YPA under pressure means little EXCEPT in comparative analysis, where Teddy doesn't rank particularly high when it comes to "pressured YPA."

Of course not, don't be silly. I'd just like more information and just to be clear, I'm not being critical of Bridgewater, I'm being critical of PFF (again).

Jim ... chill!!!!

I'm not attacking you. I'm disagreeing with you. There's a difference. And you have to admit, I do have a point here. If Teddy is completing 75 percent of his throws under pressure, that's better than many of the alternatives, even if he's completing NOTHING BUT check-downs. I know you'll hate this, but what was Christian Ponder's ultimate undoing? Most would say it was how he handled pressure. His first instinct was to tuck and run. In Teddy, you have a kid who doesn't look to run first AND manages to complete a high percentage of his passes. Even if they're short, that's an improvement over what we've seen the previous three years.

And for the record, I've been just as critical of PFF as you have. The difference, to me, is that comparative stats are somewhat valid as long as the same methodology applies to everyone. Compared to all other QBs since 2008, using the PFF definition of "pressure" (whatever it is, flawed or not), Teddy's completion percentage was best. Whether you choose to view that as a noteworthy accomplishment is up to you, but it IS a fact. And it's better than about a thousand alternatives I can think of.

[Mothman]

Jim: "Get Off My Lawn!"

Hahaha. Just kidding, Moth.

You just seem extra contrarian these days.

Yeah, I'm aware of it and I'm trying not to be such a grouch but at times I feel like i'm in a used car lot getting the full court press from a salesman. That Strib article is a great example. It's hard for me to swallow a line about how much the Vikes offense improved after the first Bears game when I just sat and watched them play a similarly ineffective game against the same team in the last game of the season!

It's particularly difficult because it involves the Bears and having spent my whole life living in "Bears territory", that rivalry is particularly important to me.

As for the stats, you know how I feel about PFF...

[Mothman]

Kapp, points taken and sorry if I seem on edge. I'm in a lousy mood today. I broke my vacuum cleaner about 5 minutes before responding to you and I spent 3 hours on the phone last night with my health insurance company and someone at healthcare.gov that felt like the aural equivalent of a complete rectal examination. The end result: the insurance company screwed me over with their incompetence and I may enter the new year temporarily uninsured, which really ticks me off!

None of that has anything to do with football but hopefully, it explains why, as you said in response to me, I need to chill.

[J. Kapp 11]

Kapp, points taken and sorry if I seem on edge. I'm in a lousy mood today. I broke my vacuum cleaner about 5 minutes before responding to you and I spent 3 hours on the phone last night with my health insurance company and someone at healthcare.gov that felt like the aural equivalent of a complete rectal examination. The end result: the insurance company screwed me over with their incompetence and I may enter the new year temporarily uninsured, which really ticks me off!

None of that has anything to do with football but hopefully, it explains why, as you said in response to me, I need to chill.

No worries, buddy. Sounds like a rough day. I'd be in a mood, too.

Here's to a much better start to 2015 than your finish to 2014 has been!