Off-season Prediction Thread

[J. Kapp 11]

Flores' defense needs a Hunter type to work. I believe without his production, that defense would have been awful.

There is a good chance that Hunter's production will drop off dramatically soon, perhaps as soon as next season, but very likely by the season after next. See https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... fl-players for the hard data on that.

From that article regarding defensive ends:

After a defensive lineman's seventh year in the NFL, his time is very, very short. Look at the huge drop-off in qualifying starters from year seven to year eight, and from year nine to year 10. The decline flattens for a while, as the best defensive linemen can stick around a very long time, but the quick development, long plateau and quick decline is obvious.

Hunter was drafted by the Vikings in 2015, which made 2023 his 8th season. He came into the league fairly young, so for Hunter, his 8th year was probably more like the 7th year for the typical defensive end. Still, the aggregate stats don't lie, and if KAM were a betting man based on the odds, he'd have to bet that Hunter is nearing the production cliff if he hasn't already started to go over it.

To be honest, I was surprised at Hunter’s production this season. I’ve seen that study, too, and I expected a decline.

But maybe we actually HAVE seen a decline.

After 14 games, Hunter stood at 15.5 sacks and was leading the league. But then he got only one sack the final 3 games, and that sack was more Goff tripping into him than Hunter winning.

I know, I know. It’s 3 games. A microscopic sample size. But I focused on Hunter a lot. He wasn’t winning. The O-linemen he was going against were holding their own. Was he worn down? Maybe. But do you pay $25 million to somebody who wears down after 14 games?

I love Hunter. I’d be happy if the Vikings retain him. But if they give him the bag and he declines, my guess is that you guys who feel a team shouldn’t let 16.5 sacks walk out the door will be among the first to complain.

[Cliff]

To be honest, I was surprised at Hunter’s production this season. I’ve seen that study, too, and I expected a decline.

But maybe we actually HAVE seen a decline.

After 14 games, Hunter stood at 15.5 sacks and was leading the league. But then he got only one sack the final 3 games, and that sack was more Goff tripping into him than Hunter winning.

I know, I know. It’s 3 games. A microscopic sample size. But I focused on Hunter a lot. He wasn’t winning. The O-linemen he was going against were holding their own. Was he worn down? Maybe. But do you pay $25 million to somebody who wears down after 14 games?

I love Hunter. I’d be happy if the Vikings retain him. But if they give him the bag and he declines, my guess is that you guys who feel a team shouldn’t let 16.5 sacks walk out the door will be among the first to complain.

To me it's a "one in the hand is worth two in the bush" situation. We know he works well in Flores' scheme and if we let him go I'm not sure we can replace him. Certainly not easily. I like that's he's a career Viking and we've seen his growth and character too. Though if not I understand, that study is compelling.

There are some interesting edge rushers in free agency this season. Josh Allen and Brian Burns specifically.

If they bring him back and he declines that'll suck for sure and I'm sure I will complain about his play. I won't bash the team's decision though, it's not an easy one.

[J. Kapp 11]

To be honest, I was surprised at Hunter’s production this season. I’ve seen that study, too, and I expected a decline.

But maybe we actually HAVE seen a decline.

After 14 games, Hunter stood at 15.5 sacks and was leading the league. But then he got only one sack the final 3 games, and that sack was more Goff tripping into him than Hunter winning.

I know, I know. It’s 3 games. A microscopic sample size. But I focused on Hunter a lot. He wasn’t winning. The O-linemen he was going against were holding their own. Was he worn down? Maybe. But do you pay $25 million to somebody who wears down after 14 games?

I love Hunter. I’d be happy if the Vikings retain him. But if they give him the bag and he declines, my guess is that you guys who feel a team shouldn’t let 16.5 sacks walk out the door will be among the first to complain.

To me it's a "one in the hand is worth two in the bush" situation. We know he works well in Flores' scheme and if we let him go I'm not sure we can replace him. Certainly not easily. I like that's he's a career Viking and we've seen his growth and character too. Though if not I understand, that study is compelling.

There are some interesting edge rushers in free agency this season. Josh Allen and Brian Burns specifically.

If they bring him back and he declines that'll suck for sure and I'm sure I will complain about his play. I won't bash the team's decision though, it's not an easy one.

Your right. Not an easy decision.

It’s interesting though. If I were to say, “We can’t let Kirk Cousins go because we don’t have anybody to replace him,” most Vikings fans would crap all over me.

But if I say, “We can’t let Danielle Hunter go because we don’t have anybody to replace him,” most fans would nod in agreement.

I do like that Hunter is a career Viking and has been outstanding every year he’s been healthy. If they find a way to keep him, I’ll be fine with that.

[cmoss84]

Can someone do me a favor and post this poll? It would be much appreciated.

If you had to pick one of the two players, and the contract was around 2/50, the choice would be...
(a) pick cousins
(b) pick hunter
(c) let both walk

[Cliff]

To me it's a "one in the hand is worth two in the bush" situation. We know he works well in Flores' scheme and if we let him go I'm not sure we can replace him. Certainly not easily. I like that's he's a career Viking and we've seen his growth and character too. Though if not I understand, that study is compelling.

There are some interesting edge rushers in free agency this season. Josh Allen and Brian Burns specifically.

If they bring him back and he declines that'll suck for sure and I'm sure I will complain about his play. I won't bash the team's decision though, it's not an easy one.

Your right. Not an easy decision.

It’s interesting though. If I were to say, “We can’t let Kirk Cousins go because we don’t have anybody to replace him,” most Vikings fans would crap all over me.

But if I say, “We can’t let Danielle Hunter go because we don’t have anybody to replace him,” most fans would nod in agreement.

I do like that Hunter is a career Viking and has been outstanding every year he’s been healthy. If they find a way to keep him, I’ll be fine with that.

There are a few reasons I'd rather the team keep Hunter. The first I've explained but there's a lot more talent on offense too. Can the defense afford to lose his talent? It needs help all over the place.

Meanwhile the offense has weapons all over. TE, WR, several oline positions. They even have a good FB. It just needs a QB and decent RB. If that's Kirk for another 2 years I can live with that just please oh please draft a QB with a legit shot at being an NFL starter.

Cousins has it just as bad or worse statistically too. Similar study about decline applies to QBs at the 35 year mark. Except Cousins had a serious season ending noncontact injury on top of it.

[VikingLord]

To me it's a "one in the hand is worth two in the bush" situation. We know he works well in Flores' scheme and if we let him go I'm not sure we can replace him. Certainly not easily. I like that's he's a career Viking and we've seen his growth and character too. Though if not I understand, that study is compelling.

There are some interesting edge rushers in free agency this season. Josh Allen and Brian Burns specifically.

If they bring him back and he declines that'll suck for sure and I'm sure I will complain about his play. I won't bash the team's decision though, it's not an easy one.

Your right. Not an easy decision.

It’s interesting though. If I were to say, “We can’t let Kirk Cousins go because we don’t have anybody to replace him,” most Vikings fans would crap all over me.

But if I say, “We can’t let Danielle Hunter go because we don’t have anybody to replace him,” most fans would nod in agreement.

I do like that Hunter is a career Viking and has been outstanding every year he’s been healthy. If they find a way to keep him, I’ll be fine with that.

Of the two, Cousins is less likely to experience a large dropoff in production next year, and his experience both as a player and in the offense would plug what otherwise has been, and more importantly, will be, a huge hole in the offense this upcoming season. Going even further, and assuming the Vikings want to extend JJ, having a proven starter at QB might make the difference between JJ deciding to stick around or leave to try his luck elsewhere.

Hunter plays an important position on the defense, but he's also much more likely to enter the terminal decline phase of his career next year.

I go back to KAM and the fact he's a numbers and stats guy. He is going to play the odds, and the odds say he will resign Cousins and let Hunter walk.

And to add insult to injury (if such a concept applies to this situation), KAM still has to find a young QB this offseason even if he inks Cousins to another deal, plus find someone who can produce at the DE position assuming Hunter leaves. And he has to pull that off having no 3rd round pick in the upcoming draft.

I don't envy KAM one bit. He's got his work cut out for him. He just simply has to draft a LOT better than he has so far.

[Angels Wings]

4. Trade our first and a second for Justin Fields

If you get a chance read the article at this link and tell me if you still think Fields is worth a 1st and a 2nd:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/392 ... -nfl-draft

A few highlights from that article if you don't have time to read it:

Through Sunday's games, Fields ranks last in the NFL this season among 31 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter completion percentage (51.8%), is 25th in yards per attempt (5.9), tied for 29th in fourth-quarter interceptions (6) and 30th in QBR (20.4), per ESPN Stats & Information research.

Since joining the league in 2021, Fields is last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter interceptions (16), 36th in completion percentage (56.2%) and 33rd in QBR (41.4). Conversely, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.3 in the first three quarters this season is the NFL's fourth best among 31 qualified quarterbacks.

When evaluators around the league watch Fields, they can't help but notice what holds him back -- mainly, a tendency to hold on to the ball too long from the pocket, failing to see routes develop. He's last in the league among 31 qualified quarterbacks in average time per pass (3.23 seconds) in 2023, and last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in that metric since entering the league (3.10 seconds). In 37 career starts, Fields has surpassed 225 passing yards six times. Eighteen NFL starters average at least 230 yards per game this season.

Is that production worth a 1st and 2nd? Or even a 2nd? I'm not sure it is.

In my view, if Fields was really a franchise QB nobody in Chicago would be talking about drafting a QB, even with the 1st pick. They'd be talking about possibly trading back a bit and taking Harrison Jr. to pair with Fields for the next decade.

I believe having two different head coaches, OC’s along with the O Line never being addressed also played a factor in his struggles. A first and a second in hindsight is too much for Fields, but a 3rd or 4th along with a 7th rounder wouldn’t be bad.

[Maelstrom88]

I look at more than record. We played a weak schedule and barely squeaked out most wins. We played Miami with Bridgewater. The Saints with Dalton. Got obliterated by the Cowboys. Had one of the all time lucky wins over Buffalo. Then lost to a very average Giants team with Daniel Jones at home. They lost to every good team they played with the exception of Buffalo and I already mentioned the miracles that took.

Yeah sure they had injuries but whose fault is it that they haven't drafted a developmental QB with a legit shot to take over for Kirk already? They've had two years and the best they could find to back him up is Hall and Mullens. They had to panic trade for Dobbs. Knowing Kirk's contract is expiring. That's bad roster building and a lack of planning.

A coach has to have things together at least on some level to put together a 13 win season. Period. A bad coach finds a way to lose to teams they should beat. I won't hate on him for the Vikings beating teams they should have beat. The 49ers strength of schedule was similar to the Vikings last year and nobody says anything. Philly too.

As far as drafting a developmental guy in 2022 ... would that have helped? Some 5th round Jalen Hall type drafted in 2022 instead of 2023 (when Hall was drafted) would have been competition to Cousins and saved the season? I just don't see it. Jalen Hall in his second year isn't going to be a crazy amount better, I don't think.

Anyway, if the rumors are true, they actually did try to address it. They targeted Anthony Richardson who would have sat behind Cousins for a year and ready to step in next season. They also can't help the draft position they were in and not being able to find a trade partner.

Honestly I had to look back at the 2022 draft class as far as QBs go. There are a few with hindsight you can say they should have drafted. I would have liked to see them take someone so we wouldn't have to watch these dreadful back ups that we already know are awful. Give me an unknown.

As far as last year goes I think they will regret not drafting Hendon Hooker. He wouldn't have been able to play this year but it would have given them some leverage in negotiations with Kirk. I recently watched some more film on him from college and I think the Lions may have a steal who can step in when Goff's deal is up.

[Maelstrom88]

There is a good chance that Hunter's production will drop off dramatically soon, perhaps as soon as next season, but very likely by the season after next. See https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... fl-players for the hard data on that.

From that article regarding defensive ends:



Hunter was drafted by the Vikings in 2015, which made 2023 his 8th season. He came into the league fairly young, so for Hunter, his 8th year was probably more like the 7th year for the typical defensive end. Still, the aggregate stats don't lie, and if KAM were a betting man based on the odds, he'd have to bet that Hunter is nearing the production cliff if he hasn't already started to go over it.

To be honest, I was surprised at Hunter’s production this season. I’ve seen that study, too, and I expected a decline.

But maybe we actually HAVE seen a decline.

After 14 games, Hunter stood at 15.5 sacks and was leading the league. But then he got only one sack the final 3 games, and that sack was more Goff tripping into him than Hunter winning.

I know, I know. It’s 3 games. A microscopic sample size. But I focused on Hunter a lot. He wasn’t winning. The O-linemen he was going against were holding their own. Was he worn down? Maybe. But do you pay $25 million to somebody who wears down after 14 games?

I love Hunter. I’d be happy if the Vikings retain him. But if they give him the bag and he declines, my guess is that you guys who feel a team shouldn’t let 16.5 sacks walk out the door will be among the first to complain.

I think it's pretty likely Hunter will get double digit sacks for at least another 2 years. Regardless the complaints would be that he isn't living up to his deal not that the team extended their only good pass rushers. The guy isn't 35. A valid complaint would be that they let one of the most sought after, rare difference makers in the league leave for nothing but a comp. 3rd. Good pass rushers are rare and in high demand. To let one be in a position to test free agency is malpractice from a GM standpoint.

[VikingLord]

I believe having two different head coaches, OC’s along with the O Line never being addressed also played a factor in his struggles. A first and a second in hindsight is too much for Fields, but a 3rd or 4th along with a 7th rounder wouldn’t be bad.

There are probably valid excuses for some of Fields' poor numbers, but on the other hand he's also not the only young QB who has had to start playing under less than ideal conditions. His numbers put him at the bottom even among those guys.

What concerns me the most about the stats he's put up is what they say about his ability to process the field. Apart from protection issues, play design, or personnel, Fields does hold the ball way too long. After watching Dobbs and Hall this year, I think that trait is a fatal flaw for any pro QB no matter how otherwise athletic he is. Slow reads lead to late throws which tend to lead to a lot of other problems that I think jump off the page in these stats.

I guess the question with Fields is what are the odds he can improve in this area and become a more effective passing QB. I don't have any studies or other data to back this up, but I'd say a player's tendencies get baked in pretty early in their careers. If a guy is good at processing the field and making good decisions with the ball as a passer, he shows that very early. If he's not, that also shows up early and will hound him throughout his career.

When I look at Fields, I see a player very similar to Josh Dobbs. Both are bigger, athletic QBs who rely on their athleticism to escape the pocket and do damage with their legs more than their arms. Both struggled to process the field as passers, however, and are often late/inaccurate with the ball. Both also tend to turn it over a lot as a result. Both have excuses as to why they haven't developed as passers, and neither has shown much tangible, objective and consistent improvement as pros. Dobbs just wasn't drafted as high as Fields, but otherwise, they are strikingly similar players IMHO.

I personally wouldn't give up any draft picks for Fields. Chicago wants to ship him because they will draft either Williams or Mayes to replace him. Prior to that, however, they'll send out a lot of feel-good stuff to create the impression they like him and want to keep him, mostly to see if some QB-needy team is desperate enough to overlook his obvious flaws and give them something to get him. I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is a team or teams that will do that. I just hope one of those teams isn't the Vikings. If KAM gave up a 7th for him, I suppose that wouldn't be terrible, but even a 4th in this upcoming draft would be too much, especially given the Vikings don't have a 3rd due to the Hockenson trade.

KAM needs every pick he has this year and he needs to hit on most of them. The lack of production in recent drafts is starting to show up on the field, and the last thing KAM can afford is to spend draft picks on known questionable production. At least if he blows them on poor production in the draft he can plausibly claim he didn't know how the player would perform in the pros. With Fields, he does know that, so that makes it an even worse move on his part if he parts with draft choices for that production.

[VikingLord]

I think it's pretty likely Hunter will get double digit sacks for at least another 2 years.

What do you base that on, because the stats (collected over decades across all NFL teams and defensive ends) say otherwise. Hunter might be the rare defensive end who escapes gravity, but the odds do not support your position.

The guy isn't 35. A valid complaint would be that they let one of the most sought after, rare difference makers in the league leave for nothing but a comp. 3rd. Good pass rushers are rare and in high demand. To let one be in a position to test free agency is malpractice from a GM standpoint.

If Hunter were a few years younger, I'd totally agree with you, but he's not. And the data says that almost all pro defensive ends rapidly decline well before they hit 35 years old. Most fall off that cliff after 7 years in the pros, so assuming a guy enters the pros when he's 23, that means he's effectively done once he hits 30, which is the age Hunter will be this year.

I wondered last season what the contract dispute was between Hunter and the Vikings, because I thought the same as you about his production and how much the team needs him at defensive end. And then I read the article at the link I posted and it made a lot more sense, because even last year Hunter was flirting with the production cliff and KAM knows it.

If the Vikings invest a lot of money into Hunter at this point in his career, the odds of them continuing to get elite production out of him are not good, and the dollars they have promised him for whatever production they do get will be dollars that can't go to either finding at least equivalent production at the position or to attracting or retaining better production at other, equally critical positions (like, for example, QB and WR).

For what its worth, I marvel at the fact that a guy who is just turning 30 might be over the hill in the NFL, especially when that guy has been so productive for so long. But the name of the game in the pros is winning, and winning requires getting the most production out of limited cap dollars. Teams that invest those limited dollars into players unlikely to produce are foolish at best and regress in terms of competitiveness at worse, often at the expense not just of an ability to compete in the short term, but moreso in the long term. Just look at what has happened with the Minnesota Wild in hockey. Their GM foolishly committed large extended contracts to two older star players. Neither player contributed anything close to the production needed to justify that commitment, and the team didn't win anything in the short term and now languishes over the longer term while they have to wait it out until those contracts clear off the books. The Timberwolves have likewise made similar errors and suffered similar results.

I think Hunter is done as a Viking. Whether he gets a big payday from another team remains to be seen. He probably will, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the end result is similar to what happened with Cook and the Jets.

[VikingsVictorious]

If you get a chance read the article at this link and tell me if you still think Fields is worth a 1st and a 2nd:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/392 ... -nfl-draft

A few highlights from that article if you don't have time to read it:



Is that production worth a 1st and 2nd? Or even a 2nd? I'm not sure it is.

In my view, if Fields was really a franchise QB nobody in Chicago would be talking about drafting a QB, even with the 1st pick. They'd be talking about possibly trading back a bit and taking Harrison Jr. to pair with Fields for the next decade.

I believe having two different head coaches, OC’s along with the O Line never being addressed also played a factor in his struggles. A first and a second in hindsight is too much for Fields, but a 3rd or 4th along with a 7th rounder wouldn’t be bad.

I'd be OK with a 3rd round pick for Fields. That's a fair price for a backup QB that could come in and win a game or two.

[cmoss84]

A) I don't think the Bears would trade Fields to us (divisional thing), unless we overpaid...which we won't.
B) Someone desperate for a QB will give up at least 2 2nds for him.

[Maelstrom88]

I think it's pretty likely Hunter will get double digit sacks for at least another 2 years.

What do you base that on, because the stats (collected over decades across all NFL teams and defensive ends) say otherwise. Hunter might be the rare defensive end who escapes gravity, but the odds do not support your position.

The guy isn't 35. A valid complaint would be that they let one of the most sought after, rare difference makers in the league leave for nothing but a comp. 3rd. Good pass rushers are rare and in high demand. To let one be in a position to test free agency is malpractice from a GM standpoint.

If Hunter were a few years younger, I'd totally agree with you, but he's not. And the data says that almost all pro defensive ends rapidly decline well before they hit 35 years old. Most fall off that cliff after 7 years in the pros, so assuming a guy enters the pros when he's 23, that means he's effectively done once he hits 30, which is the age Hunter will be this year.

I wondered last season what the contract dispute was between Hunter and the Vikings, because I thought the same as you about his production and how much the team needs him at defensive end. And then I read the article at the link I posted and it made a lot more sense, because even last year Hunter was flirting with the production cliff and KAM knows it.

If the Vikings invest a lot of money into Hunter at this point in his career, the odds of them continuing to get elite production out of him are not good, and the dollars they have promised him for whatever production they do get will be dollars that can't go to either finding at least equivalent production at the position or to attracting or retaining better production at other, equally critical positions (like, for example, QB and WR).

For what its worth, I marvel at the fact that a guy who is just turning 30 might be over the hill in the NFL, especially when that guy has been so productive for so long. But the name of the game in the pros is winning, and winning requires getting the most production out of limited cap dollars. Teams that invest those limited dollars into players unlikely to produce are foolish at best and regress in terms of competitiveness at worse, often at the expense not just of an ability to compete in the short term, but moreso in the long term. Just look at what has happened with the Minnesota Wild in hockey. Their GM foolishly committed large extended contracts to two older star players. Neither player contributed anything close to the production needed to justify that commitment, and the team didn't win anything in the short term and now languishes over the longer term while they have to wait it out until those contracts clear off the books. The Timberwolves have likewise made similar errors and suffered similar results.

I think Hunter is done as a Viking. Whether he gets a big payday from another team remains to be seen. He probably will, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the end result is similar to what happened with Cook and the Jets.

I honestly haven't researched defensive end sack production past 30. I was thinking of Cam Jordan primarily as he is a powerful edge player like Hunter. You may be right though. In reading that article I noticed it was dated 2013. I wonder if that data would look different if you applied it to older players since then.


Cam Jordan since he hit 30: Sacks
2019 15.5
2020 7.5
2021 12.5
2022 8.5
2023. 2.0

He definitely hit the wall this year but has been strong other than that.

[VikingsVictorious]

I'm not saying to throw out that article about what happens after X amount of time with most players. I'm sure it has some value. However, those players aren't Hunter so the article has very little predictive value on Hunter. Hunter will do what Hunter will do not what they did.