It just occurred to me that the scenario that Seattle wins out would put them in one of their wins having been against JAX. Thus by my #2 we win that tie breaker scenario regardless of which 2 games we win to end tied with them. The *only* way we lose the 2nd round bye to SEA in a tie is if we lose 4 games and they win 3 NFC games, or if we lose 3 by only beating CIN, *and* they only lose 1, but *not* JAX. Of course we can also lose by losing 4 and they win 3, or losing 3 and they win 4, but those have nothing to do with owning tie breakers.cstelter wrote: So to not lose a 1st round bye to SEA, we must
1) win no more than 1 game less than them.
2) If we win 2 games less than them, our wins had better be NFC wins (resulting in our having better NFC record outright, or tied winning common opponents), or one of their wins had better have been against JAX next week (resulting in NFC record tie and our winning common opponents).
Also in any 3 loss or 4 loss scenario, odds are good that NO, or LAR will grab that 2nd bye before SEA.
Let's just focus on beating CAR, and not worry about these eventualities.