Next OC for the Vikings?

[CharVike]

To the Cousin haters:

If Cousins leave and Vikings have a worse quarterback, you all are going to be begging for Cousins to come back, be careful for what you wish for

I don't know man. I'm only 40 and I've endured some pretty crappy QB play from the Vikings in that time. I've seen way worse play than Cousins, but I don't think that fact should make Kirk Cousins the bar to strive for.

If whoever replaces Cousins, (whenever that will be) is worse than him, it'll be pretty much the same right? What is the guy gonna do, have us miss the playoffs? Been there, done that...

I'm 60 and have been watching this QB crap show 20 more years than you. IMO Cousins is the best since Tark. Even Tarks 1st year back with us I think 72 we missed the playoffs. They didn't kick him to the curb. They drafted help like Foreman. And we should always be looking to get better than Cousins but that's not easy. I was hoping for a total tank job this year so we could get the No 1 pick and the kid QB. No luck. No QB was taking our team to the show last year. I don't think to many 27th ranked defenses made the Super Bowl or even the playoffs in history. Maybe Fouts Chargers. Maybe some others but I'm not looking it up. It's extremely rare if it did happen. We need to get this D playing top notch and quickly.

[StumpHunter]

I don't know man. I'm only 40 and I've endured some pretty crappy QB play from the Vikings in that time. I've seen way worse play than Cousins, but I don't think that fact should make Kirk Cousins the bar to strive for.

If whoever replaces Cousins, (whenever that will be) is worse than him, it'll be pretty much the same right? What is the guy gonna do, have us miss the playoffs? Been there, done that...

I'm 60 and have been watching this QB crap show 20 more years than you. IMO Cousins is the best since Tark. Even Tarks 1st year back with us I think 72 we missed the playoffs. They didn't kick him to the curb. They drafted help like Foreman. And we should always be looking to get better than Cousins but that's not easy. I was hoping for a total tank job this year so we could get the No 1 pick and the kid QB. No luck. No QB was taking our team to the show last year. I don't think to many 27th ranked defenses made the Super Bowl or even the playoffs in history. Maybe Fouts Chargers. Maybe some others but I'm not looking it up. It's extremely rare if it did happen. We need to get this D playing top notch and quickly.

The last time the 27th ranked scoring (points per drive) defense went to the playoffs was TN this year. They averaged giving up 2.67 ppd, while the Vikings averaged 2.68. Virtually the same defense statistically.

2019 Houston went to the playoffs with 27th ranked scoring d, 2018 KC did it with the 28th, and got to OT in the AFCCG.

[StumpHunter]

I'm more convinced Cousins can hold up his end of that deal than I am Spielman and Zimmer can hold up theirs heading into next season. Some good luck on Hunter and Pierce would go a long way to help the DL situation, and a full, normal offseason would do wonders for the DB situation. But that interior OL situation has been like a Rubik's cube for Spielman. Here's hoping he finally figures it out...

I am not convinced either of them can hold up their end of the deal, but what about the past 3 seasons gives you more confidence in Cousins?

Vikings' 3 seasons prior to Cousins arrival, with QBs Bridgewater, Bradford and Keenum: 32 wins, 2 division titles, one NFCCG game.

Cousins' 3 seasons prior to joining the Vikings: 24 Wins, 1 division title (only took 9 wins to win it because it was a terrible division), 1 WC round game.

Vikings' 3 season with Cousins: 25 wins, 0 division titles, 1 divisional round game.

Going by past performances, Zimmer and Spielman are more likely to hold up their ends of the bargain than Cousins. 6 seasons, nearly identical results for the QB, but you have seen something that shows you a 33 year Kirk Cousins is going to turn into a SB caliber player?

Two top 10 WRs, the 2nd best RB in football, good tackles, a center who was just picked 18th overall, a 2nd round RG, average TEs and people still talk about how we are not putting enough around Cousins for him to succeed because the LG sucked? It is laughable.

[VikingLord]

I am not convinced either of them can hold up their end of the deal, but what about the past 3 seasons gives you more confidence in Cousins?

I say that because I'm looking at what has to happen and not what has happened.

Mostly, the things that need to improve and the breaks that need to happen for Cousins to get a better result are fewer than the things that need to improve and the breaks that need to happen for Spielman and Zimmer to get a better result.

Going by past performances, Zimmer and Spielman are more likely to hold up their ends of the bargain than Cousins. 6 seasons, nearly identical results for the QB, but you have seen something that shows you a 33 year Kirk Cousins is going to turn into a SB caliber player?

Because he doesn't need to be a "Superbowl caliber player" per se - he just needs to be a clear top 10 player. He doesn't have to go from zero to 60. He just needs to go from 45 to 55.

Two top 10 WRs, the 2nd best RB in football, good tackles, a center who was just picked 18th overall, a 2nd round RG, average TEs and people still talk about how we are not putting enough around Cousins for him to succeed because the LG sucked? It is laughable.

Those are all factors that lessen the number of things that need to improve for Cousins. He needs better interior line play. He needs that, and so does Cook and the running game for that matter. If the Vikings offense gets that, Cousins should be more than good enough to get the Vikings over the bar.

Whether the defense and special teams can hold up their end is another story.

[VikingLord]

But how are they going to fix the interior O-line when they’re already $10 million over the cap? And that’s if the cap is $189 million. It could be lower.

That is a great question. Can the draft provide some help here? Maybe the maturation of Bradbury and Cleveland?

I don't know how Spielman manages it as tight under the cap as he is, but if he doesn't manage it I don't see the Vikings competing for a Superbowl next season.

Again, it’s that conundrum. We say, “Cousins would great if he just had the support,” but he’s so expensive that we can’t afford it. With a reduced cap, its even worse. And in 2022 at $45 million, it’s crippling.

That’s the biggest reason I’m in favor of trading him.

Based on the Wentz trade even trading him doesn't provide immediate relief. The Eagles are going to eat some serious dead cap money getting rid of Wentz's contract. Granted, they're out from under it after that, but that is going to pin them down this offseason.

I keep saying this and I'll say it again here - if Spielman can improve the QB position at reasonable cost, he should do it. If that means trading Cousins, I would support it as long as the Vikings as a team are objectively better.

[StumpHunter]

Because he doesn't need to be a "Superbowl caliber player" per se - he just needs to be a clear top 10 player. He doesn't have to go from zero to 60. He just needs to go from 45 to 55.

Even that isn't realistic though. QBs don't turn the corner at 33, and in fact the vast majority start to regress. He has peaked and it is only going to go downhill from here. An okay QB who struggles just about every time he faces a good defense. One of the most consistently bad QBs against top 10 pass defenses in the NFL. 0-11 as a Viking and the fewest points scored over the past 3 years on average of any starting QB during that time, against teams who ended the season top 10 in passer rating against.

Two top 10 WRs, the 2nd best RB in football, good tackles, a center who was just picked 18th overall, a 2nd round RG, average TEs and people still talk about how we are not putting enough around Cousins for him to succeed because the LG sucked? It is laughable.

Those are all factors that lessen the number of things that need to improve for Cousins. He needs better interior line play. He needs that, and so does Cook and the running game for that matter. If the Vikings offense gets that, Cousins should be more than good enough to get the Vikings over the bar.

No, those are all factors indicating that it does not matter what you put on the field with Cousins, he is never going to be good enough.

[VikingLord]

No, those are all factors indicating that it does not matter what you put on the field with Cousins, he is never going to be good enough.

This quote will become my new signature on the board if the Vikings win a Superbowl with Cousins.

[StumpHunter]

No, those are all factors indicating that it does not matter what you put on the field with Cousins, he is never going to be good enough.

This quote will become my new signature on the board if the Vikings win a Superbowl with Cousins.

I really hope you get to do that, but would bet my house you won't.

[VikingLord]

This quote will become my new signature on the board if the Vikings win a Superbowl with Cousins.

I really hope you get to do that, but would bet my house you won't.

I don't think it's a good idea to bet your house...

[Bowhunting Viking]

I really hope you get to do that, but would bet my house you won't.

I don't think it's a good idea to bet your house...

VikingLord you are 150% correct on the action of betting ones house NOT being a good idea. I mean the Wilfs have done it with Cousins to take us to the promised land for the past 3 years now and we see how that worked out. A true cautionary tale!

[RandyMoss84]

Vikings are not winning a Superbowl as long Zimmer and Speilman are here

[CharVike]

As for the stats, I'm not saying I solely believe in the "volume" ones and discount the advanced metrics.

What I'm saying is that while there are numerous ways to measure players at a given position against each other, focusing only the stats that support your argument while discounting ones that don't doesn't move the ball, even if you really believe the metrics you want to point at are more meaningful or better in some way. Like them or not, the volume stats are still compiled against the player's peers across the league. As such, they're useful in comparison. Not definitive in terms of value or even ranking, but in terms of establishing some relative perspective, they are.

Along those lines, Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer have access to the same advanced metrics you do. Apparently neither believes they indicate the Vikings aren't getting value from Cousins even at his pay grade. So they're either complete idiots whose jobs depend on their ability to make those assessments and understand those metrics and yet don't understand them, or they do understand them and their pride simply doesn't allow them to acknowledge they need to cut bait and move on. If the metrics indicate Cousins is middling, what do they lose if they move on other than face?

As for Cousins, yeah, it's time for Cousins to earn his contract, and I think he'll get this coming year to show he can do that. If he can't and the Vikings continue to tread water, and in the absence of some major issue outside of his or anyone's control that could excuse a middling performance, I don't think Spielman, Zimmer or Cousins is going to get another crack at it, at least not with the Vikings. The Wilfs have given all 3 of them everything they could ask for.

I personally think that the key to this upcoming season, though, relies far more on fixing the interior OL, DL and DB situations than it does on Cousins being objectively a top 5 QB or the Vikings somehow swinging a mega deal to get a guy like Watson or one of the top QB draft picks. If those issues are fixed and the Vikings can finish top 10 in offense and defense, then all the Vikings should need from Cousins is a top 10 performance and they should be in the Superbowl conversation come the end of the year. Cousins doesn't have to light the world on fire or be SuperMan - he just has to be good enough, and if the team around him is good enough, they have as good a chance as any other team to win it all.

I'm more convinced Cousins can hold up his end of that deal than I am Spielman and Zimmer can hold up theirs heading into next season. Some good luck on Hunter and Pierce would go a long way to help the DL situation, and a full, normal offseason would do wonders for the DB situation. But that interior OL situation has been like a Rubik's cube for Spielman. Here's hoping he finally figures it out...

Totally agree.

But how are they going to fix the interior O-line when they’re already $10 million over the cap? And that’s if the cap is $189 million. It could be lower.

There are some good players out there in free agency. Joe Thuney is available at guard, but we couldn’t begin to bid on him. Geno Atkins, a Zimmer favorite and 6-time Pro Bowler, is likely to be a cap casualty. He would be a huge upgrade at 3-tech, but we couldn’t afford him even if he gave us a Zimmer discount. If Cousins’ cap hit were similar to Matt Stafford’s $21 million, we could be in the running for guys like this. But here we are.

Again, it’s that conundrum. We say, “Cousins would great if he just had the support,” but he’s so expensive that we can’t afford it. With a reduced cap, its even worse. And in 2022 at $45 million, it’s crippling.

That’s the biggest reason I’m in favor of trading him.

Joe Thuney. Bill has plenty of CAP and won't sign him. That should ring a bell. He did the same with Nate Solder. He said see ya and the Giants gave him the bank roll. Now they want to unload him. I don't want this Thuney guy. Our team can create a crap load of CAP with a snap of the finger and not much impact. Start with do nothing Rudy and keep going. Players become a FA for a reason. Sometimes a better player comes along but most times they are not performing good enough for there existing team. The CAP is a one year deal. Don't look x years down the road it means nothing. The Saints are 70 million over. Now they can't field a team. They will because they have been doing the same thing for a long time. Teams can always find the CAP if they need to. I look at the 2021 FA list and I don't see too many super star players out there. Where is the dominate edge rusher? The shut down CB. The WR that blows the top off the house? The OL player that don't get beat much and fits this light guy scheme? The QB that is an upgrade better than Rodgers? There is a few gap players like always. Nothing more.

[CharVike]

I'm more convinced Cousins can hold up his end of that deal than I am Spielman and Zimmer can hold up theirs heading into next season. Some good luck on Hunter and Pierce would go a long way to help the DL situation, and a full, normal offseason would do wonders for the DB situation. But that interior OL situation has been like a Rubik's cube for Spielman. Here's hoping he finally figures it out...

I am not convinced either of them can hold up their end of the deal, but what about the past 3 seasons gives you more confidence in Cousins?

Vikings' 3 seasons prior to Cousins arrival, with QBs Bridgewater, Bradford and Keenum: 32 wins, 2 division titles, one NFCCG game.

Cousins' 3 seasons prior to joining the Vikings: 24 Wins, 1 division title (only took 9 wins to win it because it was a terrible division), 1 WC round game.

Vikings' 3 season with Cousins: 25 wins, 0 division titles, 1 divisional round game.

Going by past performances, Zimmer and Spielman are more likely to hold up their ends of the bargain than Cousins. 6 seasons, nearly identical results for the QB, but you have seen something that shows you a 33 year Kirk Cousins is going to turn into a SB caliber player?

Two top 10 WRs, the 2nd best RB in football, good tackles, a center who was just picked 18th overall, a 2nd round RG, average TEs and people still talk about how we are not putting enough around Cousins for him to succeed because the LG sucked? It is laughable.

Yes Keenum won a division title for us. I don't think Rodgers was around. Yes he took us to the NFCCG after the miracle home win. Then crap the bed and we were destroyed. All players age differently. I've seen players who were done before they hit 33. Rodgers played at an MVP level at age 37 and it can be argued it was his best season. No Super Bowl. Brady is still cranking at 43. I've been watching 50 years and never seen a QB at 43 play like that. What is a SB caliber player. Rodgers hasn't been to the super bowl in a long time. Is he a super bowl caliber player? Jimmy G is a super bowl caliber player and that has been proven. So is Goff. So is Ryan. I give all 3 credit. Newton is also. Wilson twice. Your missing the most important piece. A team needs to get hot at the right time our they will not make it. They become playoff fodder. Cousins threw 35 TDs last year. That should do it. We need to stop Rodgers and Brady and a bunch of other super bowl caliber QBs or we won't make it. That means getting hot at the end.

[VikingLord]

I don't think it's a good idea to bet your house...

VikingLord you are 150% correct on the action of betting ones house NOT being a good idea. I mean the Wilfs have done it with Cousins to take us to the promised land for the past 3 years now and we see how that worked out. A true cautionary tale!

I don't agree that the Wilfs bet the house with Cousins' contract.

There are two "controversial" things about Cousins and his Vikings contract(s) since he arrived:

- The amount he's getting paid. This is controversial primarily because not everyone agrees he's a franchise QB or consistently plays at a level that merits what he's being paid.
- The fact his contract is guaranteed. As far as I know, no other starting QB in the NFL has a fully guaranteed contract. For that matter, I'm not aware of any other player that has one either. However, it's important to note that Cousins is not the only player who has guaranteed money in his contract. There are plenty of other players with guarantees - it's just that most of them get those guarantees in the form of signing bonuses up-front.

On the first point, Cousin's contract is not out of line compared to other top QBs in the league. If you don't agree he's a top QB, then he's being paid too much. If you think he's a top QB, then this is pretty much par for the course around the league.

On the second point, this is only an issue because it makes Cousins harder to part with in the event the Vikings wanted to change direction at QB. With that said, it also makes it harder for Cousins to get out too. This is an overlooked part of the deal and likely was what differentiated the Vikings to Cousins when Cousins was in the FA market. You have to remember that prior to joining Minnesota Cousins' original team (formerly known as the Redskins) had him on perpetual franchise status. They wouldn't commit to him longer term, but at the same time they wouldn't let him test FA either. So the way I see it, when Cousins finally did hit FA he wanted more of a commitment from whatever team he signed with. As noted, this locks in *both* sides as almost no other team is going to take on more than the final year of a large guaranteed contract in a trade situation.

It's a commitment more than betting the house, and while the final years of the extension he signed are larger, it's reasonable to believe both sides indexed those amounts to what they expected the salary cap to be in those future years. Big numbers, yes, but in context, not as cap-killing or team flexibility killing as they would appear to be at first.

Now, for context, the trade for Herschel Walker was betting the house.

What it would cost Spielman to move on from Cousins and trade for Deshaun Watson would be betting the house as well.

The investment in Cousins is not close to either by comparison.

[StumpHunter]

On the first point, Cousin's contract is not out of line compared to other top QBs in the league. If you don't agree he's a top QB, then he's being paid too much. If you think he's a top QB, then this is pretty much par for the course around the league.

Cousins will make 150 million from 2018-2022. During that time Aaron Rodgers will make 149 million and Russel Wilson will make 150 million and even the most ardent Cousins fan will not make the argument that Cousins adds close to the value Rodgers and Wilson do with a straight face. So accepting the FACT that Wilson and Rodgers add significantly more to their teams for the exact same or less cap hit, it stands to reason that every season those two teams go into the year with a huge advantage over the Vikings from QB salary versus value added standpoint.

Now, there are other teams that have made similar mistakes as the Vikings have, by paying QBs like they are Russel Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but I would argue that when those teams made those mistakes, they were of the opinion that the QB they were signing could become the close to the next Rodgers or Wilson, which is why they were willing to pay as much as they did. If they had known they were going to get similar value out of their QB as the Vikings have gotten out of Kirk, they would have never inked the deal in the first place.

On the second point, this is only an issue because it makes Cousins harder to part with in the event the Vikings wanted to change direction at QB. With that said, it also makes it harder for Cousins to get out too. This is an overlooked part of the deal and likely was what differentiated the Vikings to Cousins when Cousins was in the FA market. You have to remember that prior to joining Minnesota Cousins' original team (formerly known as the Redskins) had him on perpetual franchise status. They wouldn't commit to him longer term, but at the same time they wouldn't let him test FA either. So the way I see it, when Cousins finally did hit FA he wanted more of a commitment from whatever team he signed with. As noted, this locks in *both* sides as almost no other team is going to take on more than the final year of a large guaranteed contract in a trade situation.

What is this now? How does the fully guaranteed part of the contract make it harder for the player to hit FAs? It does in fact make it easier, since the contract is shorter and needs to be reupped more frequently.

Cousins contract is arguably the most player friendly contract in the history of the NFL, and it is exactly what he wants it to be. He didn't sign with Washington because they refused to give him the deal the Vikings' did. He wanted a shorter, fully guaranteed contract, so he could bend the team over the barrel yet again in 3 years, and Washington didn't think he was worth that. They were right.

It's a commitment more than betting the house, and while the final years of the extension he signed are larger, it's reasonable to believe both sides indexed those amounts to what they expected the salary cap to be in those future years. Big numbers, yes, but in context, not as cap-killing or team flexibility killing as they would appear to be at first.


Now, for context, the trade for Herschel Walker was betting the house.

What it would cost Spielman to move on from Cousins and trade for Deshaun Watson would be betting the house as well.

The investment in Cousins is not close to either by comparison.

It is betting the house in the same way Walker was betting the house. Unless Cousins takes a huge step forward, his contract will have the same impact that Walker trade did. Not keep the team out of the playoffs over the next few seasons necessarily, but keep them from truly competing for a SB.

Giving up 3 1st round picks for Watson is not betting the house. It is giving up a chance to draft the next Bradbury, Hughes, and Gladney for a clear upgrade at QB. How is that betting the house?