Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

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StumpHunter
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by StumpHunter »

VikingLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:51 am I don't believe Spielman and Zimmer want to be a run-first offense,
This has many layers to it. Zimmer would probably love to have to never pass the football. Realistically though, I am sure both Zimmer and Spielman know that teams that rely too much on the run and can't pass don't win SBs.

I think in 2018 they saw what happens when this team tries run the offense primarily through the pass, and neither liked what they saw. Whether it was Cousins or the Oline, it just didn't work. The defense was on the field too much, and too many turnovers lost the team games.

2019 is a Zimmer team. A team that runs the ball as much as they can, but one that has the ability to pass when needed. A passing game that compliments the run game and takes very little risks.

Spielman certainly values the RB position more than the average GM. He is the one who paid AP huge contracts, and has spent multiple 2nd and 3rd rounders on the position.

So maybe not a run first team like Baltimore, but certainly a team that puts an emphasis on the run like a Seattle or SF.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

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VikingLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:37 am
StumpHunter wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:53 am Didn't NE spend a 1st on a RB in 2018? So they do value that position, and will spend resources on it, they just refuse to spend a lot of cap at it. Which is true of nearly every position for the Pats. I mean, they let Tom Brady go to avoid paying him.
Which is the point Kapp is making I believe.

Nobody is saying the RB position doesn't have value or should be ignored, or that the Pats have had success ignoring it.

The Pats have had success largely defining the value of positions sans the players who play those positions and avoiding falling into the trap of believing they need anyone in particular to have success as a team.

Brady is the closest thing the Pats have ever had to an "indispensable" player, and, as you note, were more than willing to part ways with him when his value no longer matched his salary demands.

Whether that has worked is left as another exercise for the reader.
If we truly followed the NE model, the only players on high priced contracts on the Vikings would be Kendricks, Hunter, Diggs, and Theilen. The rest would have been traded in year 4 to reload or never signed in the first place.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by YikesVikes »

VikingLord wrote: Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:18 pm
YikesVikes wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:56 pm
Anyone arguing Cook's worth to this team should be forced to watch the GB game until they conform.
The value of Cousin's vs. Cook should not be an argument. Cousins had a wealth of riches that most QBs do not have and his production was elevated as a result. Without Cook he #### the bed. 16/31 and 122 yards.
What about the San Fran game in the playoffs with Cook? I don't recall Cook's presence in that game having particular impact, nor being very beneficial to Cousins.
I didn't blame Cousin's for either loss. I pointed out that Cousins has a QB's dream scenario last season. Cook did not have an ideal RB situation. If you want to point to the San Fran game, you must not have watched it. Cook was hit behind the LOS constantly. Why would you blame him for that?

My point still stands. Cook is more valuable than Cousins for this team and should be paid.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingsVictorious »

YikesVikes wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:11 pm
VikingLord wrote: Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:18 pm

What about the San Fran game in the playoffs with Cook? I don't recall Cook's presence in that game having particular impact, nor being very beneficial to Cousins.
I didn't blame Cousin's for either loss. I pointed out that Cousins has a QB's dream scenario last season. Cook did not have an ideal RB situation. If you want to point to the San Fran game, you must not have watched it. Cook was hit behind the LOS constantly. Why would you blame him for that?

My point still stands. Cook is more valuable than Cousins for this team and should be paid.
I would disagree with you. Replace Cook with Mattison and we shouldn't suffer too much. Replace Cousins with Mannion and I think we would seldom win a game. Hopefully we have them both and Cook's deal is a reasonable $10 million a year.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by RandyMoss84 »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:48 pm
YikesVikes wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:11 pm

I didn't blame Cousin's for either loss. I pointed out that Cousins has a QB's dream scenario last season. Cook did not have an ideal RB situation. If you want to point to the San Fran game, you must not have watched it. Cook was hit behind the LOS constantly. Why would you blame him for that?

My point still stands. Cook is more valuable than Cousins for this team and should be paid.
I would disagree with you. Replace Cook with Mattison and we shouldn't suffer too much. Replace Cousins with Mannion and I think we would seldom win a game. Hopefully we have them both and Cook's deal is a reasonable $10 million a year.
I agree with you on that
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingLord »

YikesVikes wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:11 pm I didn't blame Cousin's for either loss. I pointed out that Cousins has a QB's dream scenario last season. Cook did not have an ideal RB situation. If you want to point to the San Fran game, you must not have watched it. Cook was hit behind the LOS constantly. Why would you blame him for that?

My point still stands. Cook is more valuable than Cousins for this team and should be paid.
Who blamed Cook for the loss against San Fran? I certainly didn't.

I was merely offering a counterpoint to your claim about the GB game and how not having Cook in the 2nd loss affected the passing offense. I was asking where the "Cook effect" went during the loss to the 49ers in the playoffs.

Is there a team that pays a RB more than it's starting QB in the NFL? Has there ever been such a team?

With all due respect, I think your point stands mainly in your own perception. Neither the NFL as a whole (still waiting for someone to offer a compelling trade scenario for Cook), nor the GM of the Vikings, nor the head coach of the Vikings likely would agree with you that Cook is more valuable for the team than Cousins.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingLord »

StumpHunter wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:55 pm 2019 is a Zimmer team. A team that runs the ball as much as they can, but one that has the ability to pass when needed. A passing game that compliments the run game and takes very little risks.

Spielman certainly values the RB position more than the average GM. He is the one who paid AP huge contracts, and has spent multiple 2nd and 3rd rounders on the position.

So maybe not a run first team like Baltimore, but certainly a team that puts an emphasis on the run like a Seattle or SF.
What evidence do you have that Zimmer prefers to run the ball as much as he can and views the passing game as complementary?

I provided a laundry list of evidence that suggests the opposite is true, or at the very least Zimmer prefers a more balanced approach.

- Teams that prefer to run don't need highly paid QBs. They just paid Cousins very highly. Such teams keep the Case Keenums of the NFL and don't bother making plays for guys they believe are franchise QBs.
- Teams that prefer to run stock up on OL who are better run blockers than pass blockers or, at the very least, design their blocking schemes with running in mind. Last I looked, that doesn't describe a single Vikings starting OL heading into this season.
- Teams that prefer to run retain and draft TEs who demonstrate the ability to run block. Again, when I think of run blocking TEs, neither Rudolph nor Smith come to mind.
- Teams that prefer to run place high value on receivers who likewise are proficient at run blocking. This one is slightly more debatable I guess, but if the Vikings had a WR who was capable of being a good run blocker it was Treadwell. Treadwell barely saw the field in his time with the team.

If you look at the first 4 or so games of last season, I can understand why someone might believe the Vikings wanted to resurrect the Dolphins' offense of the early '70s. But on closer examination, 2 things drove those performances, and I don't think either had to do with the overall philosophy of the offense being designed around the run.

The first factor was Cook himself being fresh and eager. He made a lot of things out of nothing and broke off a lot of big plays largely on his own efforts. That didn't last. They ran into teams that defended the run better, plus Cook started to slow down a bit and then got injured, and that changed things. I don't have the stats at hand, but the run game, with or without Cook, seemed to slow down substantially as the year went on.

The second factor that drove the early season success on the ground was the defense. The defense played pretty well early, so when the Vikings got early leads the offense could afford to be more one-dimensional and give Cook more touches. The early-season Vikings resembled the all-season 49ers in that sense - the play of the defense allowed the offense to be more one-dimensional and took the pressure off the passing game for the most part. The main difference between the 2019 Vikings and the 2019 49ers IMHO was that the 49ers played a lot more consistently all year in terms of running and on defense. Neither team was great passing the ball, and one could argue for largely the same reasons. I think the 49ers also sported an OL that was built for run blocking. Lump in their TEs who were exceptional blocking in the run game and they were less explosive than the Vikings in terms of running, but a heck of a lot more consistent.

I still think every piece of available objective evidence suggests the Vikings don't place the high value on Cook that many of the fans on this board do. I'm sure they value him and want him to be happy, but the offense is not designed around him or around run-first, and the team will live, and perhaps even thrive, without Cook breaking off 80 yarders after juking 4 defenders.

Like it or not, this team's ultimate success is going to come down to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings ability to string together drives and create explosive plays in the passing game with steady, consistent production from the running game. Offensively at least, that is the model that seems to work best in the modern NFL, and I think the Vikings are trying to emulate it. If I'm right, Cook will never sniff $10 million a year while he's a Viking. He might get it, or more, but it will be from some other team once he proves he can stay on the field for 16 games.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

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VikingLord wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:38 pm
StumpHunter wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:55 pm 2019 is a Zimmer team. A team that runs the ball as much as they can, but one that has the ability to pass when needed. A passing game that compliments the run game and takes very little risks.

Spielman certainly values the RB position more than the average GM. He is the one who paid AP huge contracts, and has spent multiple 2nd and 3rd rounders on the position.

So maybe not a run first team like Baltimore, but certainly a team that puts an emphasis on the run like a Seattle or SF.
What evidence do you have that Zimmer prefers to run the ball as much as he can and views the passing game as complementary?

I provided a laundry list of evidence that suggests the opposite is true, or at the very least Zimmer prefers a more balanced approach.

- Teams that prefer to run don't need highly paid QBs. They just paid Cousins very highly. Such teams keep the Case Keenums of the NFL and don't bother making plays for guys they believe are franchise QBs.
- Teams that prefer to run stock up on OL who are better run blockers than pass blockers or, at the very least, design their blocking schemes with running in mind. Last I looked, that doesn't describe a single Vikings starting OL heading into this season.
- Teams that prefer to run retain and draft TEs who demonstrate the ability to run block. Again, when I think of run blocking TEs, neither Rudolph nor Smith come to mind.
- Teams that prefer to run place high value on receivers who likewise are proficient at run blocking. This one is slightly more debatable I guess, but if the Vikings had a WR who was capable of being a good run blocker it was Treadwell. Treadwell barely saw the field in his time with the team.

If you look at the first 4 or so games of last season, I can understand why someone might believe the Vikings wanted to resurrect the Dolphins' offense of the early '70s. But on closer examination, 2 things drove those performances, and I don't think either had to do with the overall philosophy of the offense being designed around the run.

The first factor was Cook himself being fresh and eager. He made a lot of things out of nothing and broke off a lot of big plays largely on his own efforts. That didn't last. They ran into teams that defended the run better, plus Cook started to slow down a bit and then got injured, and that changed things. I don't have the stats at hand, but the run game, with or without Cook, seemed to slow down substantially as the year went on.

The second factor that drove the early season success on the ground was the defense. The defense played pretty well early, so when the Vikings got early leads the offense could afford to be more one-dimensional and give Cook more touches. The early-season Vikings resembled the all-season 49ers in that sense - the play of the defense allowed the offense to be more one-dimensional and took the pressure off the passing game for the most part. The main difference between the 2019 Vikings and the 2019 49ers IMHO was that the 49ers played a lot more consistently all year in terms of running and on defense. Neither team was great passing the ball, and one could argue for largely the same reasons. I think the 49ers also sported an OL that was built for run blocking. Lump in their TEs who were exceptional blocking in the run game and they were less explosive than the Vikings in terms of running, but a heck of a lot more consistent.

I still think every piece of available objective evidence suggests the Vikings don't place the high value on Cook that many of the fans on this board do. I'm sure they value him and want him to be happy, but the offense is not designed around him or around run-first, and the team will live, and perhaps even thrive, without Cook breaking off 80 yarders after juking 4 defenders.

Like it or not, this team's ultimate success is going to come down to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings ability to string together drives and create explosive plays in the passing game with steady, consistent production from the running game. Offensively at least, that is the model that seems to work best in the modern NFL, and I think the Vikings are trying to emulate it. If I'm right, Cook will never sniff $10 million a year while he's a Viking. He might get it, or more, but it will be from some other team once he proves he can stay on the field for 16 games.
Zimmer fired DeFlippio because he did not run the ball enough so that is evidence
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by YikesVikes »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:48 pm
YikesVikes wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:11 pm

I didn't blame Cousin's for either loss. I pointed out that Cousins has a QB's dream scenario last season. Cook did not have an ideal RB situation. If you want to point to the San Fran game, you must not have watched it. Cook was hit behind the LOS constantly. Why would you blame him for that?

My point still stands. Cook is more valuable than Cousins for this team and should be paid.
I would disagree with you. Replace Cook with Mattison and we shouldn't suffer too much. Replace Cousins with Mannion and I think we would seldom win a game. Hopefully we have them both and Cook's deal is a reasonable $10 million a year.
That's because our backup QB might be the worst int he league. When I am talking value, I am talking about what is/was available in FA.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by YikesVikes »

Proof of zimmer love for running the ball was earlier this last season. Before AT and Diggs went wall. Many think they were talking about Cousins but if you listen to the comments, it was about the playcalling. Zimmer threw the ball 10 times in Atlanta. Case closed.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

StumpHunter wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:53 am
J. Kapp 11 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:56 pm
Wasn’t referring to the bolded part. I was referring to your comment that you don’t believe in modeling.

Doesn’t make you a bad person ... just someone I would have a hard time working with.

And who said anything about the Patriots and last year? I’ve clearly cited the last 20 years. Your mileage may vary, but I pay attention to organizations that have sustained success. It’s the longest-running dynasty in NFL history. If I were a GM, I’d be interested in understanding what makes them so successful and implementing whatever makes sense to implement.
Didn't NE spend a 1st on a RB in 2018? So they do value that position, and will spend resources on it, they just refuse to spend a lot of cap at it. Which is true of nearly every position for the Pats. I mean, they let Tom Brady go to avoid paying him.
Yes. They did. Sony Michel, whom they signed for 4 years and $9.6 million.

Not exactly breaking the bank here. Thanks for supporting my point.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:11 am
J. Kapp 11 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:56 pm
Wasn’t referring to the bolded part. I was referring to your comment that you don’t believe in modeling.

Doesn’t make you a bad person ... just someone I would have a hard time working with.

And who said anything about the Patriots and last year? I’ve clearly cited the last 20 years. Your mileage may vary, but I pay attention to organizations that have sustained success. It’s the longest-running dynasty in NFL history. If I were a GM, I’d be interested in understanding what makes them so successful and implementing whatever makes sense to implement.
here is the bolded part again to try to help you.
VikingsVictorious wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:38 pm

I'm going to do what I believe is most successful. Sometimes that will be similar to what somebody else did and other times it won't.
If I were running the Vikings I would do what is best for the Vikings NOT what is best for the Patriots.

Kapp you are too intelligent to be spouting this nonsense. I said in the bolded part I would use things similar to what was successful for another team which may or may not include the Patriots where I saw fit. I also said I would not use similar things to what was successful for them where I did not see fit. Since you did reply to my comment with the bolded part you were indeed referring to the bolded part. If you had any reading comprehension at all which I am sure you do it was plainly typed for all to see that I would utilize things that were successful from other franchises which may include the patriots where I saw fit to use them.
I am not going to do what any other organization happened to do where it is unlikely to be successful for the team I am running in this fictitious exercise. Why on Earth would I follow something any other team had been doing now or 20 years ago in a case where it was unlikely to be successful for our team.

Maybe this will help you. I am not going to copycat another teams successful maneuvers just for the sake of copying them. That would be idiotic. There is no guarantee those maneuvers would be successful now. There was a time the Wing T formation was successful in football. I'm not going to copycat that. I would incorporate ideas that are likely to be successful for us along with coming up with my/our own ideas that are likely to be successful for us or is that not allowed in your we must copy the Patriots rhetoric.
And I never used the word copycat. I used the word benchmark, which is completely different. You figure out the major principles that successful people employ, employ those, and adjust for your own situation. I’ve said that many times.

Let’s just quit arguing about this. It’s getting us nowhere.

And by the way, if I’m so intelligent, then why did you feel the need to throw in ad hominem insult like questioning my reading comprehension? I never did that to you.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by StumpHunter »

J. Kapp 11 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:11 am
StumpHunter wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:53 am

Didn't NE spend a 1st on a RB in 2018? So they do value that position, and will spend resources on it, they just refuse to spend a lot of cap at it. Which is true of nearly every position for the Pats. I mean, they let Tom Brady go to avoid paying him.
Yes. They did. Sony Michel, whom they signed for 4 years and $9.6 million.

Not exactly breaking the bank here. Thanks for supporting my point.
Whether it is cap or draft capital, it is taking a valuable commodity that could have been used to fill another position, and spending it on a RB.

I assume if Cook walks, we will be spending a 1st or 2nd round pick on a RB next year (that has been Rick's M.O.). Is that worth 10 million in cap? There is a cost and risk associated with letting FAs walk and saving cap. For instance, Waynes and Mac was a 1st and 3rd and the risk that neither of the CBs drafted are ever any good. Even trading Diggs and saving his cap cost us a 1st and that same risk in the end.

There is cost and risk associated with paying players as well, with the obvious cost being cap and the risk being mostly related to age and injury.

I guess what I am trying to say is, with Cook, it isn't as cut and dry as we should never pay a RB more than 4 million, and it isn't as simple as always paying a RB who is playing great to avoid losing him. There is cost and risk associated with both.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

StumpHunter wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:44 am
J. Kapp 11 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:11 am
Yes. They did. Sony Michel, whom they signed for 4 years and $9.6 million.

Not exactly breaking the bank here. Thanks for supporting my point.
Whether it is cap or draft capital, it is taking a valuable commodity that could have been used to fill another position, and spending it on a RB.

I assume if Cook walks, we will be spending a 1st or 2nd round pick on a RB next year (that has been Rick's M.O.). Is that worth 10 million in cap? There is a cost and risk associated with letting FAs walk and saving cap. For instance, Waynes and Mac was a 1st and 3rd and the risk that neither of the CBs drafted are ever any good. Even trading Diggs and saving his cap cost us a 1st and that same risk in the end.

There is cost and risk associated with paying players as well, with the obvious cost being cap and the risk being mostly related to age and injury.

I guess what I am trying to say is, with Cook, it isn't as cut and dry as we should never pay a RB more than 4 million, and it isn't as simple as always paying a RB who is playing great to avoid losing him. There is cost and risk associated with both.
Well, my hard-and-fast $4 million limit is probably one of about 10,000 reasons why I'm not an NFL GM :)

Seriously though, you make good points here.

This is simply my own personal philosophy, but it seems to be shared by plenty of GMs around the league. Teams just aren't investing big money in RBs these days, and to get what they need, GMs are simply drafting them, paying them rookie wage for 3-4 years, and cutting them loose. So while nothing is ever totally cut and dried, my stance is that the running back situation in the NFL is as close to cut and dried as you can get.

Specific to Dalvin Cook, I would never pay him close to $10 million a year, and I think I've made my case as to why. He's very talented, but he's never stayed healthy for a full season, and he was, statistically and otherwise, nowhere near the same back after the Dallas game as he was before it ... even in the playoffs. A half a season of high performance does not merit $10 million a year in my book, especially for an injury-prone running back. Obviously that's a minority opinion around here, and I'm fine with that. I made the $4 million limit mostly as a point of reference and a number to argue about. Most people think I'm insane. The Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Patriots, Saints and many other playoff teams might not, as none of them employ high-priced running backs.

EDIT: Aaron Jones in Green Bay has been making a lot of noise that he expects to be paid big-time. Good luck with that, Mr. Jones. Your team drafted a running back in the second round. Might want to have your agent start checking interest around the league.

As for CBs, this is a passing league. So I'm going to go out on a limb here (because I have no data to back it up) and say that the likelihood of "hitting" on a quality corner seems to be less than that of drafting a quality running back. Much more is expected of a corner. I wouldn't call Waynes a bust, but his reputation is definitely hurt by his No. 11 overall draft status. When you're picked that high, you're expected to be an impact player almost immediately, and he just wasn't ... ever. If he would have been drafted second round or later, we'd probably view him as a solid No. 2 corner. Mack Alexander played about as well as any reasonable person might have expected out of a third-round pick. He was in a great situation here in Minnesota, but apparently he believes he should be an outside corner, so if someone's willing to do that for him (and pay him like a starting outside corner), then good for him.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by S197 »

I think it's evident the Vikings are a run-first team by the way Zimmer manages games. If this team is sitting on a 10-point lead, they're looking to run out the clock, not put the game away. We've seen this on many occasion.

Then there's Gary Kubiak, who has been very successful taking his zone blocking scheme and turning it into a highly successful rushing offense. As mentioned, very different from JDF who was canned after a crazy lopsided offense that simply didn't work.

You can also look at personnel. We utilize a lot of 2 TE sets. We are also one of the few teams that regularly uses a FB. We had Thielen, Diggs, and a bunch of no-names making up the rest of the WR corps. Meanwhile we kept 4 RB's on the roster. That's in addition to Ham.

I think if you asked Zimmer he would say he's looking for balance, which is probably true. But being a defensive minded coach, he's one that frequently relies on his defense and emphasizes both ball control and ball security. This team finished the year ranked 3rd in rushing. Passing? 17th.
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