Cousins is actually better under the bright lights

[VikingsVictorious]

If the Vikings miss the playoffs this year, does that change the Cousins sentiment or does he get yet another pass?

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

[StumpHunter]

There is 0 correlation between winning and overpaying your QB:

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/nfl-qu ... ree-agency

Rookies and journeyman backup QBs forced into starting roles are just as likely to get you wins as the highly paid "proven" QBs who earn a big second contract. Not because they are as good of QBs, but because management can afford to put a better team around those guys.

BTW, the difference between that 2017 defense and the 2018 one is pretty insignificant when you break it down by drive.

2018 per drive stats:
1.68 points (3rd)
28 yards (4th)
.107 turnovers (19th)
.249 3 and outs (4th)
.449 tds per redzone trip (2nd)

2017 per drive stats
1.39 points (2nd)
25.91 yards (4th)
.103 turnovers (22nd)
.293 3 and outs (3rd)
.410 tds per redzone trip (3rd)


Every team saw an increase in yards and points given up due to the Rodgers rule change that year, but even with that there was only a slight decrease in play by the defense from 2017 to 2018 compared to the other defenses in those years.

The problem was not a drop in defensive play, it was a massive drop off in offensive production (8th in scoring to 22nd) and a large increase increase in turnovers by the offense (3rd to 12th).

Well of course the 2018 defense wasn’t a big drop off.... you found a “per drive” stat that applies to your argument. How long did it take you to find that?

And yeah there was a dip in offense production and I can tell you it wasn’t because of Kirk cousins. That was flip. When you force the pass and stray away from your QBs strengths and then flat out ignore the run game, I could’ve told you the offensive production was going to take a hit. I can just about guarantee you that it Shurmur was the OC, we wouldn’t be sitting at 22nd in scoring. Not even close. Do you know how bad you have to be to get fired mid season? If it was cousins you would’ve seen similar results this year with Stefanski/Kubiak as well. That wasn’t the case

Do you have any specific issues with the per drive stat, something I have used pretty consistently on here since I joined the board? Do you think a per game stat is better, even though it includes TDs score when the defense isn't even on the field and doesn't take into account how often the defense is asked to defend in a game?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats ... tsdef/2018
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats ... tsdef/2017

If you think I was cherry picking stats from that year the links to the numbers are above. I thought I chose the ones I felt were most important, not the ones that suited my argument, but I could be wrong.

[RandyMoss84]

If the Vikings miss the playoffs this year, does that change the Cousins sentiment or does he get yet another pass?

It does not change the Cousins sentiment, I know everyone just puts the blame on Cousins just because he is the quarterback but this is not an individual sport, it is a team sport, it is sad that if Vikings win, fans credit the win on everyone except Cousins and if Vikings lose, fans just blame on Cousins and no one else

[StumpHunter]

If the Vikings miss the playoffs this year, does that change the Cousins sentiment or does he get yet another pass?

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

Every decision made by the team has an impact on wins-losses, none more than who they choose to put out there at QB. This roster, and the decision to go young and not extend players in their prime (Mac and Waynes) as well as trade Diggs is mostly because the QB is making 15% of the cap. Other player's contracts play into that too, but none come close to what Cousins is making.

A down year is worth it if means future success in the form of a Lombardi, it is not worth it if just means a continued cycle of a WC birth with no real chance at the SB, followed by a year of .500 football, rinse and repeat.

I also don't know if Zimmer and Rick survive a down year. Honestly, they probably shouldn't.

[RandyMoss84]

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

Every decision made by the team has an impact on wins-losses, none more than who they choose to put out there at QB. This roster, and the decision to go young and not extend players in their prime (Mac and Waynes) as well as trade Diggs is mostly because the QB is making 15% of the cap. Other player's contracts play into that too, but none come close to what Cousins is making.

A down year is worth it if means future success in the form of a Lombardi, it is not worth it if just means a continued cycle of a WC birth with no real chance at the SB, followed by a year of .500 football, rinse and repeat.

I also don't know if Zimmer and Rick survive a down year. Honestly, they probably shouldn't.

If Zimmer gets fired, the crying and whining will be out of this world but years later with a new head coach, Vikings win a Superbowl and they will be changing their tune and will be saying that they are glad Zimmer got fired

[VikingsVictorious]

Every decision made by the team has an impact on wins-losses, none more than who they choose to put out there at QB. This roster, and the decision to go young and not extend players in their prime (Mac and Waynes) as well as trade Diggs is mostly because the QB is making 15% of the cap. Other player's contracts play into that too, but none come close to what Cousins is making.

A down year is worth it if means future success in the form of a Lombardi, it is not worth it if just means a continued cycle of a WC birth with no real chance at the SB, followed by a year of .500 football, rinse and repeat.

I also don't know if Zimmer and Rick survive a down year. Honestly, they probably shouldn't.

If Zimmer gets fired, the crying and whining will be out of this world but years later with a new head coach, Vikings win a Superbowl and they will be changing their tune and will be saying that they are glad Zimmer got fired

Whoever coaches the Vikings for the next 5-10 years is going to be a very successful coach unless he totally screws the pooch. We are loaded for bear. If there is a down year this coming one will be it due to so much change in personnel.

[VikingLord]

BTW, the difference between that 2017 defense and the 2018 one is pretty insignificant when you break it down by drive.

2018 per drive stats:
1.68 points (3rd)
28 yards (4th)
.107 turnovers (19th)
.249 3 and outs (4th)
.449 tds per redzone trip (2nd)

2017 per drive stats
1.39 points (2nd)
25.91 yards (4th)
.103 turnovers (22nd)
.293 3 and outs (3rd)
.410 tds per redzone trip (3rd)


Every team saw an increase in yards and points given up due to the Rodgers rule change that year, but even with that there was only a slight decrease in play by the defense from 2017 to 2018 compared to the other defenses in those years.

The problem was not a drop in defensive play, it was a massive drop off in offensive production (8th in scoring to 22nd) and a large increase increase in turnovers by the offense (3rd to 12th).

Do you have the defensive stats you listed for the 2019 defense?

The reason I ask is because I agree with your point about what changed between 2017 and 2018 in Cousins' first year as the starting QB. I wouldn't go as far as to blame Cousins for those offensive declines, at least not solely. IIRC, Cook got hurt early in 2018 and was out for the rest of that year, plus the offensive line was pretty dinged up and the Vikings ended up starting a 2nd round draft pick at RT who prior to that season many agreed needed some time to acclimate and develop. O'Neill surprised well to the upside that year, but it wasn't a great year for stability at RB or along the OL. And yeah, Cousins did suffer from an inordinate number of turnovers, some of which were clearly him, but others were bad bounces. The ultimate effect of all of that was a big dropoff in production, but I can't directly connect that to the arrival of Cousins alone.

But...

That defensive continuity you pointed out between 2017 and 2018 and the resulting moves the Vikings made to keep that defense largely intact heading into 2019 was very significant to the outcome of the 2019 season. The Vikings didn't just invest a lot of $$$ into Cousins - they also invested a lot into keeping that defense intact, and one could argue they overpaid for that as well heading into 2019. While I don't have the stats at hand to support the claim that the 2019 defense dramatically regressed, my guess is they will show that it did, and that more than anything is why I think the 2019 team was a one-and-done in the playoffs.

If you look at it that way, its pretty hard to fault Cousins. The offense in 2019 wasn't really the problem per se. Yes, I think the offense failed to step up to the moment in some regular season games and Cousins was part of that failure, but they managed to do it against the Saints in the playoffs and Cousins was a big part of that success. The 2019 defense, OTOH, consistently failed to step up to the moment in key situations, and overall performed worse than what the braintrust had a reason to expect based on the 2017 and 2018 results.

I would argue that while the Vikings paid a lot to get Cousins, the underlying strategy behind how the team was designed was based on having a top defense and a competent offense. If the offense played competently and didn't suffer from a raft of key injuries or historically poor number of turnovers, and the defense played well enough, that could be a winning approach and take the team deep into the playoffs.

It is hard to argue with that approach, especially given the cards the Vikings were dealt. They had the core of a great defense. They had drafted well on defense and made some solid moves in FA on defense. The defense was proven, veteran and had continuity. Offensively, things were more dicey, not just in terms of how drafts had turned out, but also in terms of free agency, injury and overall continuity. Adding Cousins added a proven veteran to run that show. I think the theory was he was capable of making all the throws and big plays, but at the very least he'd be a steady hand in key situations and wouldn't blow it, which in turn meant the defense, if it played as expected, could be counted on to essentially win games.

That is the part of the strategy that failed in 2019. The defense didn't perform as expected, notably at CB but also against the run.

[VikingLord]

Every decision made by the team has an impact on wins-losses, none more than who they choose to put out there at QB. This roster, and the decision to go young and not extend players in their prime (Mac and Waynes) as well as trade Diggs is mostly because the QB is making 15% of the cap. Other player's contracts play into that too, but none come close to what Cousins is making.

The reason the Vikes didn't extend Waynes was because they couldn't afford to do that, or because Waynes wasn't worth extending?

Also, Cousins cap number is large, true, but IIRC Spielman splurged quite a bit on several defensive extensions as well as on Rudolph's extension. If the QB's cap hit is 15% that is a lot, but there is still 85% of cap to go around. That should be enough to keep key players provided the team has identified who those key players are and isn't trying to keep everyone.

Put another way, does it make sense to designate a safety as a franchise player and thus ensure he's paid among the top 5 players at his position on a team where the other starting safety is one of those top five players? That on a defense that wasn't exactly great against the pass the prior season, and that for a player who prior to that season was notable more for his lack of production than anything else?

Anyway, I think the problem is more complex than what you are making it out to be. Waynes sucked last year. He was average against the run and consistently bad against the pass, especially the deep pass. He seemed disinterested in fixing things, either. I rarely saw him exhibit any emotion, good or bad. Mac wasn't bad, but I'd argue if he was good he'd have seen more time outside spelling one of Rhodes or Waynes, especially given how poorly both performed. The fact that he was only a slot cover guy made him expendable more than him coming up for a new contract. I could be wrong on that, but I can't say I noticed Alexander much either when it came to making plays. Most of the notable plays made by the Vikings CBs last year were against them.

[S197]

If the Vikings miss the playoffs this year, does that change the Cousins sentiment or does he get yet another pass?

It does not change the Cousins sentiment, I know everyone just puts the blame on Cousins just because he is the quarterback but this is not an individual sport, it is a team sport, it is sad that if Vikings win, fans credit the win on everyone except Cousins and if Vikings lose, fans just blame on Cousins and no one else

I honestly don't see that as the case. In this thread sure, but that's because this thread is specifically about Cousins. I personally have thrown a lot of criticism at Spielman and Zimmer. Others have highlighted other areas like the OL.

[S197]

If the Vikings miss the playoffs this year, does that change the Cousins sentiment or does he get yet another pass?

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

That's fair. But how do you define efficiency? Are you looking at just turnovers and completion percentage?

I realize it's a bit of a gray/subjective area. For me, I think Cousins has a very good arm, it's not Bradford level but short of him it's the best we've had since Favre. I also think he's a good leader from a character standpoint and he's also proven to be durable, which is something we've also been sorely lacking in a QB.

What worries me is I think some of his limiting factors are things that cannot be changed. He can't extend plays and his pocket awareness is below average. I think this contributes to the large number of fumbles and sacks. Throwing a pick or getting strip sacked is the same result, you're coming off the field. Our porous OL certainly accounts for some of that but Cousins plays a factor as well. When your most memorable run of the season is sliding short of a 1st down marker, it says a lot to me. The other limiting factor is he is far too conservative, particularly in big games. I think this is a reason why Case was so successful here, he gave guys chances. The Minneapolis Miracle as a prime example. Cousins is surrounded by a talented cast (well absent Diggs now) and you got to try and let your playmakers make plays.

I guess what I'm saying is some fans seem to give Cousins a pass due to the OL, the OC, the defense, the system... almost everything under the sun. To me, if this team misses the playoffs for the 2nd time in his 3 years here, he's part of the problem. Yes, it's a team sport but all positions are not equal. Cousins touches the football on every offensive snap. He is a very big part of this team's success and failure.

[StumpHunter]

BTW, the difference between that 2017 defense and the 2018 one is pretty insignificant when you break it down by drive.

2018 per drive stats:
1.68 points (3rd)
28 yards (4th)
.107 turnovers (19th)
.249 3 and outs (4th)
.449 tds per redzone trip (2nd)

2017 per drive stats
1.39 points (2nd)
25.91 yards (4th)
.103 turnovers (22nd)
.293 3 and outs (3rd)
.410 tds per redzone trip (3rd)


Every team saw an increase in yards and points given up due to the Rodgers rule change that year, but even with that there was only a slight decrease in play by the defense from 2017 to 2018 compared to the other defenses in those years.

The problem was not a drop in defensive play, it was a massive drop off in offensive production (8th in scoring to 22nd) and a large increase increase in turnovers by the offense (3rd to 12th).

Do you have the defensive stats you listed for the 2019 defense?

The reason I ask is because I agree with your point about what changed between 2017 and 2018 in Cousins' first year as the starting QB. I wouldn't go as far as to blame Cousins for those offensive declines, at least not solely. IIRC, Cook got hurt early in 2018 and was out for the rest of that year, plus the offensive line was pretty dinged up and the Vikings ended up starting a 2nd round draft pick at RT who prior to that season many agreed needed some time to acclimate and develop. O'Neill surprised well to the upside that year, but it wasn't a great year for stability at RB or along the OL. And yeah, Cousins did suffer from an inordinate number of turnovers, some of which were clearly him, but others were bad bounces. The ultimate effect of all of that was a big dropoff in production, but I can't directly connect that to the arrival of Cousins alone.

But...

That defensive continuity you pointed out between 2017 and 2018 and the resulting moves the Vikings made to keep that defense largely intact heading into 2019 was very significant to the outcome of the 2019 season. The Vikings didn't just invest a lot of $$$ into Cousins - they also invested a lot into keeping that defense intact, and one could argue they overpaid for that as well heading into 2019. While I don't have the stats at hand to support the claim that the 2019 defense dramatically regressed, my guess is they will show that it did, and that more than anything is why I think the 2019 team was a one-and-done in the playoffs.

If you look at it that way, its pretty hard to fault Cousins. The offense in 2019 wasn't really the problem per se. Yes, I think the offense failed to step up to the moment in some regular season games and Cousins was part of that failure, but they managed to do it against the Saints in the playoffs and Cousins was a big part of that success. The 2019 defense, OTOH, consistently failed to step up to the moment in key situations, and overall performed worse than what the braintrust had a reason to expect based on the 2017 and 2018 results.

I would argue that while the Vikings paid a lot to get Cousins, the underlying strategy behind how the team was designed was based on having a top defense and a competent offense. If the offense played competently and didn't suffer from a raft of key injuries or historically poor number of turnovers, and the defense played well enough, that could be a winning approach and take the team deep into the playoffs.

It is hard to argue with that approach, especially given the cards the Vikings were dealt. They had the core of a great defense. They had drafted well on defense and made some solid moves in FA on defense. The defense was proven, veteran and had continuity. Offensively, things were more dicey, not just in terms of how drafts had turned out, but also in terms of free agency, injury and overall continuity. Adding Cousins added a proven veteran to run that show. I think the theory was he was capable of making all the throws and big plays, but at the very least he'd be a steady hand in key situations and wouldn't blow it, which in turn meant the defense, if it played as expected, could be counted on to essentially win games.

That is the part of the strategy that failed in 2019. The defense didn't perform as expected, notably at CB but also against the run.

The 2019 defense was 8th in points, and 18th in yards but was 3rd in turnovers. Worse than 2017 and 2018, but better than 2015 (14th in points) when they won 11 games. About the same as 2016.

Still a top 8 D, which is better than 7 of the 12 playoff teams this past season, including 3 of the 4 teams in the conference championships and better than the eventual SB winner.

2018 was a disaster on offense and Cousins was only a part of that disaster. Whether he was a big part or small part doesn't really matter, he was still a disappointment at QB. The guy had pretty small shoes to fill and had the perfect opportunity to make Vikings fans say "Case who?" and instead just came up small in way too many big spots.

[RandyMoss84]

If Zimmer gets fired, the crying and whining will be out of this world but years later with a new head coach, Vikings win a Superbowl and they will be changing their tune and will be saying that they are glad Zimmer got fired

Whoever coaches the Vikings for the next 5-10 years is going to be a very successful coach unless he totally screws the pooch. We are loaded for bear. If there is a down year this coming one will be it due to so much change in personnel.

Yeah, I am still not happy about Zimmer promoting his son to co-defensive coordinator, Zimmer should have hired Marvin Lewis instead

[VikingsVictorious]

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

That's fair. But how do you define efficiency? Are you looking at just turnovers and completion percentage?

I realize it's a bit of a gray/subjective area. For me, I think Cousins has a very good arm, it's not Bradford level but short of him it's the best we've had since Favre. I also think he's a good leader from a character standpoint and he's also proven to be durable, which is something we've also been sorely lacking in a QB.

What worries me is I think some of his limiting factors are things that cannot be changed. He can't extend plays and his pocket awareness is below average. I think this contributes to the large number of fumbles and sacks. Throwing a pick or getting strip sacked is the same result, you're coming off the field. Our porous OL certainly accounts for some of that but Cousins plays a factor as well. When your most memorable run of the season is sliding short of a 1st down marker, it says a lot to me. The other limiting factor is he is far too conservative, particularly in big games. I think this is a reason why Case was so successful here, he gave guys chances. The Minneapolis Miracle as a prime example. Cousins is surrounded by a talented cast (well absent Diggs now) and you got to try and let your playmakers make plays.

I guess what I'm saying is some fans seem to give Cousins a pass due to the OL, the OC, the defense, the system... almost everything under the sun. To me, if this team misses the playoffs for the 2nd time in his 3 years here, he's part of the problem. Yes, it's a team sport but all positions are not equal. Cousins touches the football on every offensive snap. He is a very big part of this team's success and failure.

Good post. He doesn't actually give up many sacks. I think he was the 24th most sacked QB on the 24th most drop backs so he's average in getting sacked. The other efficiency #s I posted a page or two ago. Quite good TDs per attempt, quite good yards per attempt, quite good completion %. One of the lower int rates in the league. He had the 4th best passer rating last year. That sliding short against KC stuck in my craw. That was a time to take a hit while getting the first down. That and the late Int against the Pukers did suck. Believe it or not I am capable of recognizing when he screws up. He's willing to hang in the pocket long enough to make the play. I don't think his mobility and pocket awareness are all that bad. I just think we got spoiled by Case who was amazing at that. As I have stated there is no question he's a top 10 QB. It's just debatable where he ranks in the top 10.

[Pondering Her Percy]

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

Every decision made by the team has an impact on wins-losses, none more than who they choose to put out there at QB. This roster, and the decision to go young and not extend players in their prime (Mac and Waynes) as well as trade Diggs is mostly because the QB is making 15% of the cap. Other player's contracts play into that too, but none come close to what Cousins is making.

A down year is worth it if means future success in the form of a Lombardi, it is not worth it if just means a continued cycle of a WC birth with no real chance at the SB, followed by a year of .500 football, rinse and repeat.

I also don't know if Zimmer and Rick survive a down year. Honestly, they probably shouldn't.

Them trading diggs had nothing to do with cap. It only saved us like $4 million.

[Pondering Her Percy]

How the Vikings as a team do has very little to do with my sentiment on Cousins. It's how Cousins himself does. If he continues to be super efficient passing the football I will continue to support him. However, if he does that I think our D and Running game will be good enough to get us into the playoffs and possibly advance a round or two.Then as the draft picks mature we just might get that Lombardi trophy.

Every decision made by the team has an impact on wins-losses, none more than who they choose to put out there at QB. This roster, and the decision to go young and not extend players in their prime (Mac and Waynes) as well as trade Diggs is mostly because the QB is making 15% of the cap. Other player's contracts play into that too, but none come close to what Cousins is making.

A down year is worth it if means future success in the form of a Lombardi, it is not worth it if just means a continued cycle of a WC birth with no real chance at the SB, followed by a year of .500 football, rinse and repeat.

I also don't know if Zimmer and Rick survive a down year. Honestly, they probably shouldn't.

Zimmer maybe. Spielman should keep his job IMO. He’s one of the better drafters in the NFL if you ask me. I don’t want to go through the cycle of poor GMs year after year. We easily have it better than 3/4 of the league